2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

The 3 matches will be played in the October window I think on a Thursday, Sunday, Tuesday timetable with the hosts playing the first and last games giving them not only home advantage but extra rest time. The playoff between the two second placed teams will be home/away in the November window.

 

would be hilarious for even one of them to miss out on the expanded WC, given the level of investment.

Qatar didn’t get a single win on the road last round, losing to UAE, Kyrgystan, Iran, Oman while drawing with Kuwait and North Korea. 2 points from those 6 games is absolutely brutal results-wise. They drew Afghanistan on a neutral site the prior round.

 

Okay, so I see what you mean, I've noticed that Bahrain has been involved in some, or at least 1 playoff, Qatar did what they did, but I kind of viewed that as a 1 off hosting purchase of player dual nat adventure. The only thing that makes me slightly curious about them, is that they also grabbed U20 hosting duties for like 5 straight tournaments, so maybe they still want to see if they can stay peripherally relevant on the big stage.

That being said, I just don't see the rest of the teams as having been relevant at all on any level save for the Uzbek's who I already respected (I wondered aloud if they could sneak into a WC circa '18 and '22) but it just hasnt' happened. I like to use the olympics, and U20's to source out any potential tweaks in regions with up coming talent maybe showing potential from teams, but what you see is:


2021 Olympics: (Japan host) South Korea, Australia, and the Saudi's.
2023 U20 WC: Japan, South Korea, Iraq, Uzbekistan
2024 Olympics: Japan, Uzbeks, Iraq (so two surprises)
2025 U20 WC: Japan, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia

So basically:
Japan: 4/4 (1 as host)
South Korea is 3/4
Australia: 2/4
Saudi Arabia: 2/4
Uzbekistan: 2/4
Iraq: 2/4

Seems like qualifying is mostly following the same trends, only major difference I can see, Iran always seems to be hot garbage in youth tournament qualifying, and the Saudi's may miss out period for the WC.

And yeah, as mentioned earlier, with Iraq having qualified for 2 of the 3 last major youth tournaments, and 1 point out of 2nd place and auto-qualification for the WC, they seem like the 1 surprise team for me. The Uzbeks aren't really surprising me because I've had them as the 5th best team in the AFC over the past decade in general, admittedly, I'm paying moderate attention, rather than close attention.

 

Playing at home is a huge advantage but for FWIW that hasn't been a huge advantage for The Saudis this cycle.

At Home

Wins: Tajikistan, China, and Pakistan (first 2 were only 1-0 wins too)
Draws: Bahrain and Indonesia
Losses: Jordan, Japan, and Australia

Away

Wins: Pakistan, Jordan, China, Bahrain

Draws: Japan, Australia and Tajikistan

Loss: Only Indonesia

 

here is the latest Concacaf qualifying group scheduling and qualifying information:
https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...nced-for-concacaf-men-s-world-cup-qualifying/

At the conclusion of the Final Round (36 matches in total), the top team from each group will earn direct qualification to next summer’s FIFA World Cup, joining tournament co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

In addition, the two best second-place finishers from across the three groups will advance to a FIFA Intercontinental Playoff, where they will compete for two additional FIFA World Cup berths. The FIFA Intercontinental Playoff is scheduled to take place in March 2026.

For the first time in history, the Concacaf region could be represented by as many as eight teams in a men’s FIFA World Cup.

 

When you ask a German what he expects of the Mannschaft they often say they are happy if they make the finals in cases where they are near top ranked.

Think about it. Here we insist that managers start out saying the objective is to win it all. Do you think that's just different ethos or is there something specific in mind when Americans say the goal is to win it all? I think it's the marketing people ruling over management and making it difficult for management. What do you think?

My objective for USA has always been to win the R16 game.

 

BREAKING: @Concacaf will provide VAR services for the Third Round of @FIFAWorldCup Qualifying!

— The International Window (@windowintlpod) August 22, 2025

 

So intrigued by some of the CAF games from next week. We should find out a lot in terms of who is slipping out of the race for a playoff spot, and who is locking in and qualifying for the QC.

9/9/25:
Group A: Unless Burkina Faso can beat Egypt at home, any chance of catching them is loss. 9/9 match.

Group B: DR Congo hosts Senegal, with a chance to take a 4 point group with a win (DR Congo drew Senegal on the road earlier in qualifying)

Group C: Nigeria 1-4-1 after six qualifiers likely must sweep the week in a home match against Rwanda and a roadie to South Africa. If South Africa wins that match at home against Nigeria, it's hard to imagine there's anyway they won't have locked up their ticket, even a draw would probably lock it up. Nigeria must clear 6 points to pull within 3 of South Africa entering the final window. It should be noted that both Rwanda and Benin are currently ahead of Nigeria and Lesotho is just 1 point behind.

Group D: Cameroon trails Cape Verde by a point despite beating them 4-1 at home earlier. If Cape Verde can grab a home win against Cameroon this coming window, they are in pole position to qualify as the final window shouldn't offer severe challenges, however, it's a 1 point lead for now, a draw won't do for either side w/things this tight.

Group E: Morocco has won the group barring a catastrophe. The question is who will get a playoff ticket between Zambia, Tanzania and Congo.

Group F: It's a two team battle between a resurgent power in Ivory Coast, and a surprisingly spry Gabon, continuing to play better and better in recent years. Gabon's chances for the WC largely ride on upsetting Ivory Coast at home, after losing 0-1 away earlier in qualifying. Ivory Coast has its only blemish in a draw against Kenya, if Gabon can return the favor and beat Ivory Coast, they have a strong advantage heading into the final window.

Group G: Algeria seems locked in to grab this group. Mozambique is within striking distance but has gotten crushed home and away by Algeria, so I just can't see them catching Algeria, even just 3 points currently behind.

Group H: Tunisia drew a pretty cake group again and looks like a lock to advance, no point to really talk shop about this group.

Group I: If Comoros has any chance, it has to beat Ghana away, otherwise Ghana will lock this group up in October.


So very interesting doings in CAF, we should have a much better picture on what will become of Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal, DR Congo, Cameroon and Cape Verde, and Ivory Coast and Gabon after this next window. Nigeria, Senegal, and Cameroon are in deep trouble unless they win, while Ivory Coast and Gabon's match will determine who takes the lead heading into the final window. Can't wait.

 

lot of very strong African sides right now, bolstered by a lot of very effective dual national recruiting — particularly for the francophone nations.

 

I've been pining to see some new sides that have come close but not quite gotten the job done in recent years, Burkina Faso (admittedly now with a dastardly vile government), DR Congo, Gabon, Benin, Rwanda fighting with Nigeria for a playoff ticket (that admittedly they'll almost certainly lose), Cape Verde currently a touch ahead of Cameroon, hell even tiny Comoros Island. It's pretty exciting, but it also wouldn't be super shocking if at the end it was:

Egypt
Senegal
Cameroon
Morocco
Ivory Coast
Tunisia
Algiera
Ghana

Or, the usual suspects from the last 20 years. We'll see.

 

I cannot believe that being in a do or die position, 9 points out of 1st place with 1 game in hand, 4 points out of runner up with 1 game in hand, they're hosting Rwanda, and it's 0-0 as the 2nd half starts. What the hell is wrong with them. I still expect them to grab the 3, but there's no question, as currently put together, they are not qualifying. They will have to completely change their form the next month AND escape a CAF playoff and a WC playoff, and they can't even keep pace with Rwanda and Benin?!?! let alone South Africa?!?!?!

 

Nothing crazy in the the first match day of the last round of CONCACAF qualifying, but some interesting cagey results, nonetheless:

• Suriname was able to hold Panama to a 0-0 draw
• Nicaragua got a 1-1 draw at home against Costa Rica
• Haiti, playing their home matches in Curacao, still drew Honduras 0-0
• On the road, Curacao was able to get a 0-0 draw at T&T
• Jamaica breezed by 4-0 in Bermuda.
• Biggest result was El Salvador taking a 1-0 victory in Guatemala.

 

and they score 5 minutes later lol.

 

Suriname surprised me, same with Costa Rica, I kept away from Hait, won with Jamaica easy, stayed away from El Salvador/Guatemala, at first was thinking I should be on Guatemala then I realized that these teams are basically the same, with El Salvador better lately, and Guatemala being better for most of the 2000's and 2010's (maybe '90's? can't remember).

 

The international club effect is rising the smaller nations to compete with the traditional CONCACAF middle tier.

 

IMO, it's just nervousness. There is no Mexico or United States to point to as the heavy favorite this go-around.

 

Fairly big one between Poland and Finland today, If Poland holds serve at home, it's gonna really hard for Finland to claw back into a playoff spot

 

Mempis Dupay becomes the all-time leading scorer in Dutch history. The Netherlands were cruising against Lithuania, then... They conceded two goals in the last ten minutes of the half. Between the Dutch and the Germans, European qualification is suddenly more interesting.

 

Germany also playing w/ fire. But now they seem to be back on track, at least for the moment. Hoping the favorites pull these out.

 

Slovakia beat Germany last week, but just barely got the 3 points v Luxembourg tonight. That's the problem with teams like them, they'll get a win here, but will drop to a weaker team next. I don't see Slovakia getting 6 points v Northern Ireland so Germany should be alright in the end.

 

Good for Poland. When a manager makes an atrocious decision concerning an all-time national team legend and critical component of the team, the federation needs to instantaneously bring the hammer down.

 

El Salvador 0-1 Suriname in the early minutes of the second half.

 

Suriname with a smash n grab as of right now. They tied El Salvador 1-1 in San Salvador during the second round of qualifying.

 

Game over in El Cuscatlan. Suriname make off like bandits with a 2-1 win and for now lead the group.

Guatemala and Panama are currently tied up 1-1 at the half from El Rommel.

 

The Euro powers are all going in for the drama this window. Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands all have difficulty in the second half of the window, but all manage needed wins. (Iceland had a 90th-minute equalizer disallowed in Paris. The right call, but it was still a close-run ending.)
Meanwhile, Norway still looking like a team ready to finish tops over Italy. They score a touchdown and a field goal today against Moldova.