2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

The first statement is probably correct. The second statement depends on how you assess things. We controlled most of the play in the first half against Bahrain and the whole game against Indonesia but lacked finishing ability. The second half against Bahrain showed a lock of maturity by a lot of players as they got distracted by Bahrain's delaying tactics. Bahrain's goal came when the referee ignored a Bahrain player rolling on the ground pretending injury and some of our players didn't.

Our defence is reasonably solid (only one goal conceded in this qualifying campaign in 8 matches and that was a deflected own goal). Ther players have achieved a lot over the last 3 years so in saying they are probably the least talented as individuals one should remember they have done very well as a team.

 

Interesting stuff, thanks!

 

We’re delighted to announce Tony Popovic has been appointed Subway #Socceroos Head Coach on a permanent basis.#WelcomeTony

— Subway Socceroos (@Socceroos) September 23, 2024

Popovic official.

 

New CONCACAF rankings do have Canda jumping over the US. This will have consequences with regards to the Nations League draw. Note that with the way this algorithm/formula works, the points are very close all the time. Panama can jump over us if they do better than us in the Nations League.

 

Beating Mexico in Mexico (and beating Panama) would very possibly jump us back over Canada.

 

Luis Suarez spoke to @DSportsUY tonight and painted a grim picture of the culture that manager Marcelo Bielsa has created within the Uruguay national team.

“The players are going to reach a limit and explode. It hurts to see what’s happening today.”

➡️https://t.co/z1zXXBehiB pic.twitter.com/GZcEklS4Nm

— Felipe Cárdenas (@FelipeCar) October 4, 2024

 

Mason Holgate joins Jamaica as their latest UB-40 pick-up.

It's official: Mason Holgate is making his debut with the Jamaica NT!@windowintlpod @passport_soccer @fabralb67 @FutLegionnaires @scout_search @futbolingles_ @ArnoldcommaJon @Concacaf @ConcacafEdgar @podcacaf @concacafonly @ConcacafO this is probably the biggest news of today!! https://t.co/szODYkcR9m pic.twitter.com/MmLDYGvX1V

— David Camarena/Дэвид Камарена🗻 (@David2095_Sport) October 4, 2024

 

Still no Greenwood despite chatter that he’s switching.

 

Bolivia the most on form squad in CONMEBOL?

Bolivia 🇧🇴! Bolivia 🇧🇴! Bolivia 🇧🇴!

They’ve done it AGAIN. Three wins in a row, this time over Colombia 🇨🇴. Now up to FIFTH.

Not only that, but they did it with 10 men for most of the match! 👏

They’ve got a gem in Miguelito (Santos U20 🇧🇷). He’s been the difference maker,…

— The International Window (@windowintlpod) October 10, 2024

 

Asia Group A;

Iran and Uzbekistan were the 2 perfect teams coming into today in Group A, and ended with a scoreless draw in Tashkent, and end the day tied at the top of the table

Qatar finally gets their first win of the round after 2 pretty disappointing results to start things off, beating Kyrgyzstan 3-1 at home

UAE concedes late to North Korea and drops points at home 1-1

Asia Group B:

South Korea gets a big away win in Amman against Jordan 2-0

Iraq holds serve at home against Palestine 1-0

Oman finally gets their first win of the round, thumping Kuwait by 4 goals at home.

South Korea and Iraq end the day tied at the top of the table with 7 points. They play each other on Tuesday

Asia Group C:

Japan remains perfect and gets the away win in Saudi Arabia 2-0

After a poor start to qualifying Australia finally get a win beating China 3-1 at home

Indonesia remain undefeated in this group earning their 3rd draw in 3 games. They nearly beat Bahrain away, but Bahrain scored an equalizer 9 minutes into stoppage time making it 2-2

Japan is the team of this group with 9 points, while Australia, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia all sit at 4 points. Indonesia 5th with 3 points and China still has a goose egg though to be fair to them all of their matches have been against the "big 3" of this group.

Oceania:

The main round opened today with single round robin groups. 2 groups of 4 teams with the top 2 advancing

In Group A the first matches are being played in Fiji while the next 2 matchdays will be in Papua New Guinea. Fiji won at home against Tahiti 1-0 despite playing the 2nd half down a man, and New Caledonia defeated Papua New Guinea 3-1, though again Papua New Guinea will have homefield advantage in their final 2 games.

In Group B the opening matches are in Vanuatu before shifting to New Zealand next month, those matches will happen tonight/tomorrow morning

CONMEBOL:

Only match to go final so far is Bolivia defeating Colombia at home despite a 20th minute red card. I'm still gonna doubt Bolivia until they can win something away, but they very well could end the day in one of South America's qualifying spots.

Ecuador and Paraguay are scoreless at halftime in Quito

Otamendi has an early goal to put Argentina up 1-0 in the first half away to Venezuela

Chile host Brazil tonight

CONCACAF Nations League:

Trinidad traveled to Cuba in what was likely a must win for both teams, so of course it ended in a 2-2 draw

Honduras had to win away at French Guiana and they did, 3-2

 

Looking at potential US quarterfinal opponents, T&T and Cuba eliminated each other with that draw. Remaining alive in that group are

Jamaica 7
Honduras 6
Nicaragua 4

Jamaica hosts Honduras Monday at The Office in the match that will decide the group winner. Nicaragua hosts French Guiana with a good chance to take 2nd place.

 

England may speed up their hiring process after yesterday’s loss. They seemed content to wait a bit or potentially even promote Carsley permanently but a performance like yesterday seems like it might shake things up.

Graham Potter time maybe? He’s also getting rumored for Man U but there’s also Howe who seems to be in a weird place with management at Newcastle.

 

I'll believe in Bolivia when they beat somebody good on the road in these WCQers.
But hey. If they can just take care of their remaining business at home, they have a chance of qualifying. Sure do. Paraguay, Peru, and Chile have been poor so far.

Is this the weakest Chile has been in my lifetime? Maybe.

The good news is the more results Bolivia gets in WCQing......................the better our result against them is in Copa America. Helps us in FIFA rating, etc.

On this board we said "That was awful! We should be beating Bolivia 5-0!!!!"

Well............maybe not. They just beat a Colombia team that absolutely destroyed us. [I understand the home field advantage they have. Still.]

 

Bolivia sucks. It's just home field elevation fiction.

Here's their away performance since qualifying began for WC '22 in 10/20:

13 total away qualifying matches for WC '22 and '26:
Goals Scored: 9
Goals Against: 38
GD: -29
Wins/Draws/Losses: 1-2-10

In fairness to them, this cycle they were 1 win, 3 losses, no draws and a GD of -7 (3 scored, 10 against) so a touch better. Otoh, the win is over a broken Chile. The rest of the cycle they have 5 roadies, 4 home games, and 2 of their 5 roadies are against 1st place Argentina and 2nd place Colombia (a third against 4th place Ecuador), and 2 of their final four home matches are against a desperate Brazil and Uruguay.

So my view is, they are trash, and they will finish bottom 2 like always. I could be wrong as Chile, and Peru are particularly god awful this cycle.

 

Their are rumors that England is talking to Tuchel.

It would be a great hire IMO, as he is excellent in cup competitions.

 

It feels like that’s more Tuchel driven at this point

The FA are yet to formally approach any candidate to replace Gareth Southgate.🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
- Lee Carsley not ruled out.
- Eddie Howe would prove a costly hire.
- Thomas Tuchel would welcome an interview.
- Pep Guardiola and Graham Potter under consideration.https://t.co/OiMSUkjJOZ

— Ben Jacobs (@JacobsBen) October 11, 2024

I don’t know that Tuchel is in love with the idea of succeeding Ten Hag and he doesn’t have an obvious next move otherwise.

 

Suriname and Costa Rica are tied 1-1 early in the 2nd half with Costa Rica down to 10 men. This one could scramble CONCACAF Nations League.

 

Guatemala and Guyana currently level at 1 at around the hour mark. Still a while to go but if that holds the standings would be Costa Rica and Guatemala tied atop the group at 5 points and Suriname and Martinique tied at 4. The former two player each other on the final day and the latter two will be favored at home.

The absolutely hilarious scenario would be Costa Rica and Guatemala drawing each other while Suriname and Martinique both win to advance out of the group.

EDIT: Of course the second I type that, Guatemala scores

 

Recap of CONCACAF Nations League Matchday 3.

Group B played last night so I'll start with them:

• Honduras really had to win against French Guiana away, and they did. 3-2
  
  
• Trinidad and Tobago traveled to Cuba in a match where both teams really needed to win, so of course the game ended in a 2-2 draw likely dooming both.
  
  
• Jamaica traveled away to Nicaragua and won 2-0.
  

That puts the table at

1st Place: Jamaica 7 pts +3 GD

2nd Place: Honduras 6 pts +4 GD

3rd Place: Nicaragua 4 pts -1 GD

4th Place: Cuba 3 pts 0 GD

5th Place: Trinidad 2 pts -4 GD

6th Place: French Guiana 1 pt -2 GD

The top 2 advance to the quarterfinals, the middle 2 don't advance but stay in League A, and the bottom 2 are relegated. Also worth noting H2H is the primary tiebreaker with these unbalanced groups.

On the final matchday coming Monday Night, you have:

• Jamaica hosts Honduras, Jamaica already beat Honduras away. Reggae Boys will clinch 1st place with a win or draw. Honduras can top the group with a win and will finish 2nd with a draw (barring a major goal differential swing). However they'll be facing elimination if they lose and Nicaragua wins
  
  
• Nicaragua hosts French Guiana who they already beat away. Nicaragua have to win and need Honduras to lose away to Jamaica (barring a major GD swing). French Guiana can not advance but could potentially avoid relegation if they win and get some other results to break their way.
  
  
• Trinidad host Cuba. This game would have had advancement importance if one of them could have won last night, but that did not happen. Likely just a match to avoid relegation, though in theory if Cuba were to win, Nicaragua dropped points at home, and Honduras lost while Cuba made up a 4 goal differential they could advance
  

Group A played tonight and will wrap up Tuesday:

• Suriname got a 1-1 draw to Costa Rica at home which is a decent result on the surface, but Costa Rica played the 2nd half down a man so it was a bit of a missed chance at a win.
  
  
• Martinique got a late goal to beat Guadeloupe away 1-0.
  
  
• Guyana hung with Guatemala for an hour at home, but 2 second half goals gave Guatemala a 3-1 win.
  

That puts the table at

1st Place: Guatemala 7 pts +4 GD

2nd Place: Costa Rica 5 pts +2 GD

3rd Place: Suriname 4 pts +1 GD

4th Place: Martinique 4 pts -1 GD

5th Place: Guadeloupe 3 pts -3 GD

6th Place: Guyana 1 pt -4 GD

On the final day you have:

• Guatemala traveling to Costa Rica, they played to a scoreless draw in Guatemala City. Costa Rica will top the group if they handle business at home, but they're in serious trouble if they drop points. They'd need both Martinique and Suriname to fail to win at home. As for Guatemala they will top the group if they can get any type of result, but if they lose they need to pray neither Martinique or Suriname win and make up the goal differential edge.
  
  
• Suriname hosts Guyana, Suriname beat Guyana away already. You presume Suriname will be a favorite at home and if they handles business they'll advance by either Costa Rica dropping points or Guatemala losing and them making up a 3 goal differential edge. So it's very plausible for them to get through. Guyana is likely getting relegated no matter what but they have a slim path if they win and some other results go their way
  
  
• Martinique hosts Guadeloupe, Martinique won in Guadeloupe tonight. Martinique has to win and the most likely path beyond that is both Costa Rica and Suriname dropping points at home. Earlier in the tournament Martinique dropped points at home to Guyana after falling behind early 2-0 (it ended 2-2), and it's really costing them right now.
  

What does this giant word salad mean for The USMNT in November? Well the not very satisfying answer is we don't know.

The way the format is structed is the highest ranked team in the next CONCACAF rankings will face the worst group runner up (worst in terms of group performance not CONCACAF ranking), the 2nd ranked team will face the best group runner up, the 3rd ranked team will play the worst group winner, and the 4th place team will face the best group winner.

Before the last window The USMNT were ranked 2nd in The CONCACAF rankings (to be clear these are different from FIFA Rankings) but after a poor window we were leapfrogged by Canada and fell to third.

However, Canada is only playing one match this window (against Panama at home) while we're playing 2, so The US could possibly get the 2nd spot back. Though it's also worth noting we're not that far ahead of Panama, so a crazy window could potentially knock us to 4th

I'm not gonna pretend I know enough about the rankings formula to know the exact scenarios for these friendlies.

So as of now The US would be playing Jamaica, but that's obviously on very shaky ground

 

Carsley already not in for the full time job

Exclusive: Lee Carsley does not want the permanent England job, Telegraph Sport has been told.https://t.co/tB7e1yktkd

— Matt Law (@Matt_Law_DT) October 12, 2024

 

Just a random curiosity, but did Mexico do for the national anthems of The Valencia friendly today?

 

lol

Mexico blow a 2-0 lead at home to LaLiga side Valencia 😬 pic.twitter.com/iMUMdp5tSI

— Golazo America (@GolazoAmerica) October 13, 2024

 

Just realized that we are quite literally at the halfway point of the Conmebol qualifiers, and will pass the 50% mark on Tuesday. Meanwhile, UEFA qualifiers haven't even been drawn yet! I know that Conmebol is always a marathon that starts early, but has the timing always been this whack out of synch?

 

I'm a stunning result, St. Vincent and the Grenadines pull off a 2-1 win over El Salvador!