2026 Mid Terms- Will it be a reckoning?

Discussion in 'Elections' started by charlie15, Jan 9, 2025.

  1. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    #126 ceezmad, May 21, 2025
    Last edited: May 21, 2025
    Dems lose another house member, I believe it's a pretty blue so he should be replaced by another Democrat eventually.




     
  2. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Wouldn’t this go in the 2025 races thread? :)
     
  3. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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  4. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Trump has amassed a $600 million war chest heading into the midterm elections and is hoping to raise a whopping $1 billion.

     
  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    A Senate seat where Democrats can burn money and end up with nothing may be Iowa.

    Ernes is going to win, but it may be close enough to get Dems to throw money at this race.

     
  6. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Yeah Iowa is pretty hard to flip these days. It’s taken a significant turn rightward since Trump came in office. They’d have a better shot getting behind an independent, similar to what happened with Nebraska or Kansas a few years back.
     
  7. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Polling showing a close Senate race in Michigan for Dems against likely GOP nominee Mike Rogers. Could be a bruising Dem primary too.

     
  8. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    FL voter registration margin

    2016 - D +327,000
    2020 - D +134,000
    2022 - R +305,000
    2024 - R +1,077,927

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    In case it doesn't render...

    It’s early, but right now I’m thinking Dems’ best path to a Senate majority is through NC, Maine, Iowa, and Texas. In IA, Ernst looks vulnerable & Dems have excelled in special elections. And in TX, Reps might nominate toxic AG Ken Paxton.
     
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    NC yes, Iowa maybe.

    Maine and Texas I doubt it.
     
  11. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    #136 Germerica, Jun 2, 2025
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2025
    Yeah and would have to hold GA and MI. So basically have to win all six of those.

    I did see a report that Dems may try to push independent candidates in some red states.
     
  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

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    Cornyn is in deep trouble.....I will not bet against Paxton winning handily in the general as well. Tx is a "special" place..

    Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 22 points, according to a new independent poll of the Senate GOP primary, 50% to 28%.

    Punchbowl News: “When asked in a recent TV interview why he was trailing Paxton in early polls, Cornyn attributed it to “primarily name identification.” But only 7% of voters hadn’t heard of Cornyn, per Blizzard’s poll, while 5% had not heard of Paxton.”
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

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    Texas has primaries in March, but Paxton and Cornyn could have a runoff.

    According to Wikipedia, Susan Collins changed from running to undeclared. I am not saying she changed her mind, but a column changed from "running" to "intent unknown." There will be 35 Senate elections including special elections, and 11 incumbents are undeclared. Maine currently has one Republican, and I do not think a Republican other than Collins could win. Eight of eighteen declared incumbents have at least one primary challenger, and several Republican incumbents could lose primaries to somebody farther right. The last six elections, meaning two for each class, did not have any incumbents not be renominated, and that is likely to end. In addition to polls, there will be a lot to watch in terms of votes before Election Day.
     
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  14. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    It's probably based on the bolded part below.

    She told CNN a month ago: “It’s certainly my inclination to run and I’m preparing to do so. I very much enjoy serving the people of Maine. I’ve obviously not made a formal announcement because it’s too early for that.

    The fact that no top tier Dem candidates have filed or raised money for that race tells you that they also believe she will indeed be running.
     
  15. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

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    I think Collins will call it quit before 2026 and that should be an easy pick up for the democrats in Maine.
     
  16. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Matt Cartwright (D) will not run for his old swing seat in PA-08, currently held by R’s
     
  17. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
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    Im assuming Dan Osborn in Nebraska is one of them. Unless Jane Kleeb pulls a Jane Kleeb.
     
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  18. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    Ricketts seemed like a popular enough governor but I don’t know enough about Nebby politics to have a strong opinion on a potential matchup with Osborn.
     
  19. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
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    The Nebraska party is a mess and Osborn has indicated he’d like to run again. But the Dems just flipped the Omaha mayorship so Kleeb likely thinks she’s doing great now. We’ll see.
     
  20. Germerica

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    R’a would need to win 7 of 19 tossups to hold the House according to this analysis

    Possible additional redistricting in Ohio and a couple other states could also favor them.

     
  21. Germerica

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    Nellie Pou (D) in NJ-09 voted against the resolution denouncing the antisemitic attack on Boulder. I expect that to get a lot of air time in that Trump district.
     
  22. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

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    I wouldn’t argue that Dems should give up on Maine, but it’s starting to look a bit dire.

     
  23. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

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    Collins knows her state, she won't do anything to actually oppose Trump, but she knows her state wants to hear her at least say it.

     
  24. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
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    Notice she’s fine with National Guard. The spice level on her anti-Trump salsa is extra mild.

    In any case, I haven’t seen any evidence of Marines on the ground in DTLA. I know CNN reported a deployment but I wonder if DoD changed its mind. Or maybe I just somehow missed it.
     

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