Dems lose another house member, I believe it's a pretty blue so he should be replaced by another Democrat eventually. BREAKING NEWS — GERRY CONNOLLY has passed away https://t.co/g9nt7lGUYA— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) May 21, 2025 The last 8 members of Congress to die in office have all been Democrats.- Connolly- Grijalva- Turner- Pascrell- Jackson Lee- Payne- Feinstein- McEachin— bryan metzger (@metzgov) May 21, 2025
GOP internal has former gov Paul LePage leading Jared Golden in Trump district ME-02 ME-2 Poll for @CLFSuperPAC (R)🔴 Paul LePage: 48%🔵 Jared Golden (inc): 43%Ragnar Research | 4/13-15 | LV | ±4.9%https://t.co/3qsQVBZvYb pic.twitter.com/z8mbpMr21g— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 21, 2025
Trump has amassed a $600 million war chest heading into the midterm elections and is hoping to raise a whopping $1 billion. Trump has amassed a $600 million war chest heading into the midterm elections and is hoping to raise a whopping $1 billion. Our look at his unprecedented fundraising effort: https://t.co/EJW12STtHW— Jill Colvin (@colvinj) May 22, 2025
A Senate seat where Democrats can burn money and end up with nothing may be Iowa. Ernes is going to win, but it may be close enough to get Dems to throw money at this race. Iowa Senate Polling:Sage (D): 47%Ernst (R): 45%Ernst: 50%Norris: 44%Ernst: 49%Scholten: 43%Ernst: 52%Wahls: 42%Data For Progress / May 12, 2025— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) May 23, 2025
Yeah Iowa is pretty hard to flip these days. It’s taken a significant turn rightward since Trump came in office. They’d have a better shot getting behind an independent, similar to what happened with Nebraska or Kansas a few years back.
Polling showing a close Senate race in Michigan for Dems against likely GOP nominee Mike Rogers. Could be a bruising Dem primary too. MICHIGAN POLL - Senate🔵 Stevens: 45.2% (+1.4)🔴 Rogers: 43.8%Definitely voting*: Stevens +6.0——🔴 Rogers: 45.9% (+4.3)🔵 McMorrow: 41.6%Definitely voting: McMorrow +1.4——🔴 Rogers: 46.9% (+6.8)🔵 El-Sayed: 40.1%Definitely voting: Rogers +1.9• Detroit Regional… https://t.co/UnWv707FOj pic.twitter.com/AAwODc10hF— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 27, 2025
FL voter registration margin 2016 - D +327,000 2020 - D +134,000 2022 - R +305,000 2024 - R +1,077,927
It’s early, but right now I’m thinking Dems’ best path to a Senate majority is through NC, Maine, Iowa, and Texas. In IA, Ernst looks vulnerable & Dems have excelled in special elections. And in TX, Reps might nominate toxic AG Ken Paxton.— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 2, 2025 In case it doesn't render... It’s early, but right now I’m thinking Dems’ best path to a Senate majority is through NC, Maine, Iowa, and Texas. In IA, Ernst looks vulnerable & Dems have excelled in special elections. And in TX, Reps might nominate toxic AG Ken Paxton.
Yeah and would have to hold GA and MI. So basically have to win all six of those. I did see a report that Dems may try to push independent candidates in some red states.
Cornyn is in deep trouble.....I will not bet against Paxton winning handily in the general as well. Tx is a "special" place.. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 22 points, according to a new independent poll of the Senate GOP primary, 50% to 28%. Punchbowl News: “When asked in a recent TV interview why he was trailing Paxton in early polls, Cornyn attributed it to “primarily name identification.” But only 7% of voters hadn’t heard of Cornyn, per Blizzard’s poll, while 5% had not heard of Paxton.”
Texas has primaries in March, but Paxton and Cornyn could have a runoff. According to Wikipedia, Susan Collins changed from running to undeclared. I am not saying she changed her mind, but a column changed from "running" to "intent unknown." There will be 35 Senate elections including special elections, and 11 incumbents are undeclared. Maine currently has one Republican, and I do not think a Republican other than Collins could win. Eight of eighteen declared incumbents have at least one primary challenger, and several Republican incumbents could lose primaries to somebody farther right. The last six elections, meaning two for each class, did not have any incumbents not be renominated, and that is likely to end. In addition to polls, there will be a lot to watch in terms of votes before Election Day.
It's probably based on the bolded part below. She told CNN a month ago: “It’s certainly my inclination to run and I’m preparing to do so. I very much enjoy serving the people of Maine. I’ve obviously not made a formal announcement because it’s too early for that.” The fact that no top tier Dem candidates have filed or raised money for that race tells you that they also believe she will indeed be running.
I think Collins will call it quit before 2026 and that should be an easy pick up for the democrats in Maine.
Ricketts seemed like a popular enough governor but I don’t know enough about Nebby politics to have a strong opinion on a potential matchup with Osborn.
The Nebraska party is a mess and Osborn has indicated he’d like to run again. But the Dems just flipped the Omaha mayorship so Kleeb likely thinks she’s doing great now. We’ll see.
R’a would need to win 7 of 19 tossups to hold the House according to this analysis Possible additional redistricting in Ohio and a couple other states could also favor them. 2026 Cook Political Report RatingsHouse Ratings:🔴 Republicans: 211🔵 Democrats: 205🟡 Tossup: 19Senate Ratings:🔴 Republicans: 53🔵 Democrats: 45🟡 Tossup: 2— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) June 5, 2025
Nellie Pou (D) in NJ-09 voted against the resolution denouncing the antisemitic attack on Boulder. I expect that to get a lot of air time in that Trump district.
I wouldn’t argue that Dems should give up on Maine, but it’s starting to look a bit dire. Hannah Pingree announces run for governor of Maine.https://t.co/GLk7K2hbe7— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) June 10, 2025
Collins knows her state, she won't do anything to actually oppose Trump, but she knows her state wants to hear her at least say it. Top Republican breaks with Trump’s Marine deployment to LA https://t.co/GMQrFTqvKW— POLITICO (@politico) June 10, 2025
Notice she’s fine with National Guard. The spice level on her anti-Trump salsa is extra mild. In any case, I haven’t seen any evidence of Marines on the ground in DTLA. I know CNN reported a deployment but I wonder if DoD changed its mind. Or maybe I just somehow missed it.
DNC way behind in fundraising. Guess they are hoping the historical trends will be enough to flip the House. We’ll see.