2026 Mid Terms- Will it be a reckoning?

I guess arguing about mediocre campaigns is not that bad compared to the GOP primary.

From Cornyn to Paxton.

"Ken, when this over, you will have nothing. Which turns out to be the same thing you offered to give Angela in divorce proceedings. This after you cheated on her multiple times."

Ken, when this over, you will have nothing.  Which turns out to be the same thing you offered to give Angela in divorce proceedings. This after you cheated on her multiple times.#txsen https://t.co/jF218y3wIb

— Team Cornyn (@TeamCornyn) February 4, 2026

 

Another Republican retires instead of running in the 2026 midterms.

https://www.rgj.com/story/news/poli...-announces-retirement-from-house/88550136007/

This is Mark Amodei, my Nevada rep and the only Republican from Nevada in Congress (there are three other House seats in Nevada, all held by Democrats, and two Democratic senators). I was just today trying to figure out how to ask him about Trump's racist video (the one from this week, not any of the ones before that), but he's noping out.

 

I am disappointed that none of these GOP house reps don’t just leave like MTG. If you really can’t stand what is going on, your immediate resignation would at least do something.

 

Yeah, but by staying, they're free to become vertebrates again.

 

In new Jersey AIPAC ran adds against a Democrat that was not loyal enough to Israel. (A primary race for a Congress seat)

It worked, he finished 2nd in the primary.

But unfortunately for AIPAC a socialist that is an even bigger critic of Israel finished 1st

2019757856812097810 is not a valid tweet id

Stick a fork in it

Analilia Mejia — backed by AOC/Bernie/Warren — will be the Democratic nominee (and overwhelming favorite) to replace Mikie Sherrill in NJ-11

She defeated a former congressman (Malinowski), the machine-backed candidate (Gill) & the AIPAC-backed candidate (Way) pic.twitter.com/5DF4P5cSMw

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) February 6, 2026

 

That is a hilarious self own by AIPAC.

 

On NV-2, the Reno Gazette Journal has a list of people who are interested in replacing Mark Amodei. This is mostly people who were already running - the paper says the local Republican party was surprised by Amodei's announcement today, so there aren't any standard Republicans who were primarying Amodei.

On the Republican side, there are two names - Rick Shepherd and Heath Fulkerson. Heath Fulkerson is also listed on the Democratic side, and he apparently ran for President in 2024, and is also apparently listed as running for a House seat in California. He sounds like a crank.

The other Republican, Rick Shepherd, has a website where he lists his priorities - and he sounds more like a Bernie Bro than a Republican. Pro-Palestine, anti-Israel, anti-Zionism, anti-AIPAC. He appears to be both anti-immigrant and anti-ICE - he wants to close the borders and deport all the immigrants, but with due process.

I'm guessing that Republicans will find a standard MAGA Trump supporter to run in the primary (in June) - they should win the primary pretty easily, because I don't think this guy Shepherd's horseshoe policies will do well in rural Nevada.

On the Democratic side, there's the aforementioned crank, and one of the other candidates is a current UNR student - I don't think she's going to win. There's several other names I can't find a lot out about. There's a schoolteacher from Elko who is pretty sensible - I follow her on Bluesky - but I'm not sure if she has any support from the local Democratic county machines.

Probably the front runner is Greg Kidd, who ran in 2024 (as an independent, but he's running as a Democrat this time). He self-funded - he's a rich guy who made money in finance - I'm not sure exactly where but he may have some crypto or vulture capitalism in his background. As far as I know, he lives in Lake Tahoe, which is like the least representative part of the whole congressional district - it's full of second or third homes for rich Californians. That will hurt him in this district - he comes across like an out of touch rich guy in a district with one small-to-medium metro area and vast tracts of rural land.

I don't see any names of, like, Democratic city council members or county commissioners or state legislature members or anything like that who are trying to move up to the House. I suspect that everyone in the establishment thought Amodei was untouchable, even in a pretty strong blue current, and they didn't want to burn up their credibility and get labeled as a loser by running against Amodei and losing. (That's why nobody ran as a Democrat against Amodei in 2024 - just Kidd who was running as an independent, although with very standard Democratic positions.) Maybe someone or other will step up and get the backing of the local and state Democratic parties and help clear the way for a pickup in November.

 

Any idea when the filing deadline is?

 

You're saying it's this guy.

 

How old is she? You have to be 30 to be a senator.

Like most districts with that large an area, the district is easily Republican, so I have no hope of gaining it this year. However, I was surprised that no Democrat ran in 2024 because the average unopposed district is more extreme.

In addition to Amodei, Barry Loudermilk from northwestern Georgia is retiring. The district has some suburbs of Atlanta, but Loudermilk won by 34 in 2024. That makes 30 House Republicans retiring. During Trump's first midterm in 2018, 37 House Republicans retired.

Wikipedia has Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Scalise as undeclared. Louisiana's filing deadline is in a week. Blake Miguez was going to primary challenge Senator Bill Cassidy, but when Julia Letlow decided to primary challenge Cassidy, Miguez chose to switch to the House district Letlow is leaving. Wikipedia lists nine Republicans including four with Wikipedia pages, so that House primary could have a runoff.

Democrat Andre Carson from Indianapolis is up to three primary challengers. The previous time I checked, he had one primary challenger. Indiana's filing deadline is today. Every district has at least one Democrat, at least one Republican, and the incumbent running. Only one Libertarian is running, whereas in 2024 all nine districts had a Libertarian.

https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2026-candidate-filing-deadlines has the filing deadlines. Nevada's is March 13.

 

She is running for the House seat, so she only has to be 25.

Also, Amodei only got 55% of the vote in 2024, so the district is not impossible.

 

Two points.

1. For the House it’s younger, 25 IIRC.

2. Once upon a time, individual congressmen (we need to de-gender that word, like fireman becoming firefighter; any ideas?) who stuck around and worked hard could become powerful by becoming a committee chair, or chair of a few select subcommittees. The hypernarionalization of all politics has ended that; the House is 434 people who show up and vote like they’re told, and try to go viral with a money blurt. Those 434 serve under a sort of prime minister. Their job is very stultifying. That’s why I don’t mind if a “celebrity” like Harry Dunn (one of the men protecting Congress on J6) or the Other Vindman Twin runs for the House. It’s a simple, simple job. (I do mind when celebrities run for the Senate because that’s a real job.)

@American Brummie has there been any research attempting to correlate House retirements to the concentration of real power in the Speaker’s hands? It would make intuitive sense, but intuition isn’t science.

 

I snoozed, and I losed.

 

Representative. Or the clunkier Congressperson, as opposed to Congressrobot.

 

1) Possibly but it wouldn't be a pure quantitative study as "concentration of power" can be a subjective measure.

2) Message sent to you. Please read it carefully.

 

To follow up, and be fair to everyone:

Dave does not get to ask for my expertise on-request and ignore it as it suits his ideological needs, and nor does anyone else. I am not a monkey on call. If you want to know if political science research says something on topic X, then you will be eagerly curious on topic Y. If this is too hard an ask, please do not @ me.

 

If you are interested in a story about Birmingham City FC, you will be eagerly (was this supposed to be “equally”?) curious about Blackburn Rovers.

Does that make any sense to anyone?

 

I’m not going to publish our PM exchange, but dude, you’re a psycho. Get help.

 

I prefer congresscritter. I feel it better describes all the scurrying around in the dark that they do.

 

Same here. It’s a serious insult to scurrying animals everywhere, but until all the varmints that would find this insulting gain access to the internet, I’m going to use it.

 

A state representative seat that Republicans should be able to flip. Trump+13

Yet they failed.

"Democrat Chasity Martinez has defeated Republican Brad Daigle in the Louisiana State House District 60 Special Election."

This is currently a 37 point Democratic overperformance relative to 2024. https://t.co/MM8bmnPoSR

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) February 8, 2026

 

This is a very good poll. (Edit, I just saw the date, from the end of January, so not that new)

Just one for now, but hopefully we see more like it going forward.

New - Generic Ballot poll (Independent voters)

Democrats 50% (+22)
Republicans 28%

Last month - Democrats +8

New - Generic Ballot poll (Independent voters)

🔵 Democrats 50% (+22)
🔴 Republicans 28%

Last month - 🔵 Democrats +8

Emerson #A - RV - 1/19

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) January 22, 2026

 

Averages, comrades