Really interesting analysis of the Latino shift in the RGV South Texas, as defined by the state's comptroller office, was 74% Latino (1,091,158 people) in the 1990 census and 84% Latino (2,021,360 people) in the 2020 census. While it's interesting to analyze the margins in this region over time, it's crucial to compare the two-party… pic.twitter.com/aGhViXRlk8— Rob G (@robg0l_) February 28, 2025
Rep. Susie Lee (D) represents the swingy D+1 #NV03. In 2024 Lee won a very close re-election by less than 2 points. I'm sure her prancing around in a cringy viral video with AOC & Jasmine Crockett totally won't be used against her in GOP ads in 2026. 🙄pic.twitter.com/7GEb1OrYZp— Izengabe (@Izengabe_) March 6, 2025
SIREN: Paul LePage is seriously considering a run for Maine’s 2nd District, per 3 sources familiar. https://t.co/TFoMXy4yfP— Michael Shepherd (@mikeshepherdME) March 7, 2025
Crystal Ball Senate rating change - NH-SEN moves from Likely D to Leans D following Jeanne Shaheen retirement. Candidates/environment will determine how real MN or NH are as GOP targets. I would expect Chris Sununu to give this a serious look.
Per Politico SCOOP: Pete Buttigieg is expected to announce Thursday he will NOT run for Michigan’s open Senate seat, according to a person briefed on his decision, clearing a path for a potential presidential campaign instead.
Yeap he is out. Politico: Pete Buttigieg is expected to announce he is NOT running for US Senate in Michigan— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) March 13, 2025
Good news for McMorrow and Stevens. Only question is what Rivet does. EDIT: meant Rivet, not Whitmer. Whitmer is already a no.
In February 2022, New Hampshire had: 276,206 (D) +10,438 265,768 (R) In February 2025, New Hampshire had: 325,221 (R) +48,145 277,076 (D) Registration trends continue to be very pro Republican in most/all states. If this continues to 2026 then even in a mildly favorite D environment those gains would offset that environment.
Sununu is very confident: If I run for Senate, I'll win https://nhjournal.com/sununu-if-i-run-for-senate-ill-win/
News on a swing district in CA CA CD-13. Ex-US Rep John Duarte (R) says he will not seek a rematch vs freshman US Rep Adam Gray (D), who ousted him last year. Instead, Duarte is supporting Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) in the race. Lopez will launch his run in April... https://t.co/reCh3gpZuX— Politics1.com (@Politics1com) March 20, 2025
Interesting trends in NC Another great week for Rs in North Carolina. Almost 1.5k added. With active voters they have already taken the lead but likely this year they will take over with total voters too. https://t.co/b07xmqCZvV— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) March 22, 2025
Another huge week for Rs in PA. That Dem statewide lead is gonna be gone by 2026. https://t.co/8lrn8w8CvM— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) March 24, 2025
honestly dont trust people of maine and susan collins until the week before the election https://t.co/WPdzEzymwU— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) March 25, 2025
The most accurate pollsters in 2024 according to ActiVote 1. @Atlas_Intel 2. @InsiderPolling 3. @OnMessageInc 4. @Rasmussen_Poll 5. @Trafalgar_Group 6. @PatriotPolling 7. @EmersonPolling 8. @ActiVoteUS 9. @TonyFabrizioGOP 10. TIPP 11. @RedfieldWilton 12. Suffolk
**PA MONTHLY VOTER REG UPDATE** March 2025 Net 🔴+6,058 Overall PA Lead🔵+93,630 Another strong month in PA sees the Dem lead drop over 6k regs 🔥🔥🔥Massive gains in Allegheny (🔴+261), Bucks (🔴+225), and Lackawanna (🔴+140)Statewide flip projected in July 2026 🔥🔥🔥— Five Star (@Five_Starrr) March 31, 2025
New Mexico voter registration update... **NM MONTHLY VOTER REG UPDATE**March 2025Net🔴+5,107Harris Margin of Victory🔵+55,385 Gain since Nov 2024🔴+18,580 🔥🔥🔥The GOP makes a large gain this month in NM. The GOP is showing strength in a state that was decided by exactly 6% in the presidential election. 🔥🔥🔥— Five Star (@Five_Starrr) April 3, 2025
Looks like Osborn will try again in Nebraska. If the tariffs do what they did last time we tried them, he could pull it off this time. Two years ago I was an unknown union mechanic in Nebraska. Then I ran for US Senate. We shocked everyone and got 47%.Multi-billionaire Pete Ricketts is Nebraska's other Senator. He's up next year. We could replace a billionaire with a mechanic.Thread 🧵— Dan Osborn (@osbornforne) April 3, 2025
Ossoff (D) with a massive $11m number raised for Q1. Still uncertain who the Republican nominee will be but he will need every last dollar if Brian Kemp decides to run.
SCB has released its House ratings for 2026. At this point the baseline expectation should be that Democrats will win control of the House. Anything less would be a significant underperformance.