https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com/post/3m73qg2udok26 This guy, an expert who has worked for 538 and the economist and others, confirms my priors. I even guesstimated the same actual effect (6-7%) given a normal election cycle. Yay me! The very interesting thing is that turnout was similar to the 2022 midterms for this special election.
This site has some great graphs: https://www.pbump.net/o/the-leftwar...ns-are-happening-in-higher-turnout-races-too/
He’s also saying that we are looking at about a Dem 235+ majority in the House at the moment. https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-special-election-in-tennessees
Normally this may be true, but I saw a stat yesterday that this election was roughly the same as the 2022 election was. https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3m72h2bsss22e
In Layman's terms..... G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com - Specials have been shifting 17 points to the left v 2024 - But swings in specials have been poor predictors of swings in midterms over the past 2-3 cycles - This is bc specials are low-turnout, and voters are not representative of the midterm electorate - 'But TN-07 was high turnout - Good for Dems
New York Times: “Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina has told people she is so frustrated with the Louisiana Republican and sick of the way he has run the House — particularly how women are treated there — that she is planning to huddle with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia next week to discuss following her lead and retiring early from Congress.”
Allred out of the Senate race, will try for a house seat. News - Colin Allred is out of the U.S. Senate Democratic primary In Texas, He's gonna run for the new CD-33. pic.twitter.com/SmE9xefZAa— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) December 8, 2025
I’m not at all down for the Crockett Senate run, but good for Allred for reading the tea leaves correctly.
Trump's success is mixed. In a North Carolina House race, a woman won a plurality, but needed to win a runoff. Trump endorsed the second place candidate, and the woman who won a plurality dropped out. I do not remember who. Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster came up a little short when the top three were close in 2022's primary for governor of Nebraska. More famously, Trump endorsed former Senator David Perdue's primary challenge to Georgia Governor Brian Kemp in 2022. Nobody else important in Georgia endorsed Perdue, and Kemp got 73.7 percent to win the primary without a runoff. In 2022 in Massachusetts, Trump endorsed a Republican primary challenger to then-Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who is now president of the NCAA. No Republican other than Baker could win the general election. Baker chose not to run rather than run against a Trump-endorsed candidate, so Trump made it easy for Democrats to gain that governor in a state without a term limit. I am guessing that Trump is more willing to cricitize incumbents of his party and endorse primary challengers to them than previous presidents. If anybody can find a previous president endorsing a primary challenger to a senator, governor, or House member for at least ten years, post it. Greene's district is safe Republican, and Mikie Sherrill resigned from a district that she won by 15.3. According to Wikipedia, twelve Democrats are running in the primary to replace Sherrill, including Tom Malinowski, who was elected to the House in 2018 and 2020. He lost to now-Representative Thomas Kean Jr. in 2022. Neither of those or Texas's runoff between two Democrats will make a seat flip. Most districts are safe, so even if ten Republicans resign in one day, there will not be many possible flips unless swing district Republicans choose to resign together. Control of the Senate has changed during a Congress, but control of the House never has. According to Wikipedia, this Congress had or will have at least eight special House elections, and the Congress is less than half done. The last Congress to have more than 15 special House elections was the 80th, which was elected in 1946, and had 19 special House elections. The most is 27 in the 71st Congress that was elected in 1928 and had the Great Depression start.
GA HD-121 Special Election (Trump+12) GA HD-121 Special Election (Trump+12)Second fully reported precinct: "South Oconee"🔵 8.9 point shift towards Democrats pic.twitter.com/jF43pgcGUJ— VoteHub (@VoteHub) December 10, 2025 It's called. Democrats have FLIPPED Georgia HD 121 in an upset. pic.twitter.com/djpl6bYSGm— VoteHub (@VoteHub) December 10, 2025
To be fair, Republicans did ok in some races. Example Albuquerque. +7 shift their way. Albuquerque, New Mexico mayor (Harris +24) (100% Reporting)🔵 Tim Keller: 57.6% (inc)🔴 Darren White: 42.4%9 Point Shift To 🔴 Republicanshttps://t.co/Ma6cL7OpGZ— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) December 10, 2025
It is also Tim Keller's third consecutive Mayoral election victory, which is a first for Albuquerque.
I've found the coverage of these mayoral races funny. I've seen news about the Miami result everywhere, which makes sense because people know Miami and view it as a major city, which is not true for Albuquerque. That's despite ABQ being about 80,000 people larger and having a voter turnout in their mayoral race that was about 3.5 times Miami's. Miami's vote total in both the first and second round was right around 37,000. That's awful voter participation. Buffalo got more than that with like, 200,000 fewer residents.
Wanted to post first then verify…but according to a few random posts on Bluesky the Indiana redistricting vote failed first!