2026 FIFA World Cup: Friendly matches

How dare you spout such blasphemy against the 2022 WC champs!

Same critique can be applied to any Conmebol WC team, ever since Conmebol qualifiers got nerfed ahead of 2026 WC:
- 2026 qualifiers got the lowest number of goals scored (183) ever since its double round-robin format was adopted in 1996.

We should be thankful to our stars. 2026 WC was 1 goal away from having BOL participate, a team who lost of 8 of 9 home matches in qualifiers.

 

And yet none of them managed to beat a terrible Belgium even once.

 

So where should be find ourselves? Twenty? Thirty? Forty?

 

Belgium has often found itself ranked by FIFA above what many football fans would consider their true place in football. The reason for that had to do with the fact that Belgium used to be very consistent even if never quite at the level of the very best sides in football (despite being ranked up there for a quite a long time). Then they went through a period where they lost a lot of points and clearly declined. Given how highly ranked they had been previously, they didn't experience a sharp enough fall in the ranking table commensurate with their poor results. Now they seem back to around where they should be ranked. It is not blasphemous to see them as barely making the cut as a top 10 team right now.

Ironically, the closest parallel to Belgium is probably Iran and how it is ranked in the AFC. Like Belgium, Iran used to be extremely consistent and earned points as a result, seeing them ranked either #1 or #2 in the AFC for more than a decade now. But in terms of quality and achievements, Iran clearly lagged behind 2-3 other AFC sides and that made Iran appear overrated too. Iran also then went through a period where it seemed to fall in relative decline but since the AFC teams (besides Japan) were generally even more inconsistent, Iran still managed to keep its high ranking in the AFC. The past 4 matches by Iran, however, show that it might be on quite an uptrend, scoring 11 goals and conceding 3 (+8GD) in its last 4 matches against Nigeria (1:2), Costa Rica (5:0), Gambia (3:1) and Mali (2:0) with 3 successive wins (10 GF, 1GA) heading to the World Cup.

Leaving aside the added uncertainty arising from Iran's peculiar political and war time circumstances, though, (except for a select few) ultimately in football you often nonetheless find a lot of variance and fluctuation when it comes to the performance of both players and the teams they play. In that sense, what matters most is the form each team shows at the World Cup (which is the stage where all eyes are in these teams) and not how they have done before getting there. That is why neither friendly results nor even WCQ results nor continental championship results are such a reliable guide when it comes to the performance at the World Cup itself. Each of those shows the form of teams in the period in question. The form that is shown by each team at the World Cup is the one that will leave the most enduring mark.

 

Also, the supposedly superior ELO rankings have us sixteenth and trending upward this year (+4 in the rankings), with number 11 Norway 24 points better off.

 

Well considering it already wasn't necessarily much of an indicator even when only 4 teams qualified. Brazil won the world cup while almost failing to qualify in 2002.

For me I judge Conmebol teams more on the Copa, and yes believe it or not FRIENDLIES, where they are playing on neutral territory against teams they dont play all the time (hence the derby match comparison)

Copa was 2 years ago and I think things have changed a bit. Paraguay was ass back then but have much improved.

Colombia seems to be trending down. There really was no other trajectory as their form 2 years ago was insane.

Argentina I'm pretty sure is also trending down but they've been only playing rubbish sides in friendlies, so this can't be confirmed. That's why I have no idea how Argentina will look.

Brazil IMO are the only Conmebol side trending up (besides Paraguay) I think they will have a good tournament, and not being THE favorites should help them.

 

In reality since 2022 Belgium is a 20ish side. Probably pretty close to 20.

 

This is based on nothing but your own subjective opinion.

 

No its based on my own ranking formula which has Belgium currently at #24.

Elo has you at #16 but I believe that includes Belgiums 2 wins against Croatia and Tunisia while my ranking does not.

 

England 1 New Zealand 0
Brazil 2 Egypt 1

I suffered through the first half of England v New Zealand. Boring match with a stoppage time goal before halftime by England but not exactly a very strong performance by them against the 'lowest ranked team' at the World Cup.

My impression: New Zealand aren't rubbish. I don't know how and why they lost 4:0 to Haiti, but any side that wants to beat them will have to earn their victory.

I only watched the highlights of Brazil's match against Egypt. The highlights showed Brazil creating most of their chances before their 2nd goal. The two teams exchanged goals inside the first 10 minutes from what were defensive lapses essentially. Afterwards, Brazil created several chances until they took the lead in the 2nd half. Egypt responded with a couple of attacks but didn't see much more from either side after it became 2:1.

My conclusion: Egypt are definitely a capable side. At or around the level of a couple of dozen or so teams at the Word Cup right below the top tier.

As for Iran, to beat New Zealand and get a result against Egypt, and to keep it competitive against Belgium, Iran would need to be close enough to its best. But hard to imagine how that could be despite Iran's encouraging results in its last 3 friendlies right before the World Cup. The conditions Iran faces are simply ridiculous: never mind some members of the coaching and technical staff denied visas. Never mind Iran having to move its camp from Arizona to Tijuana Mexico due to US restrictions. But when the team's visas allow them only to fly into each US city on the same day, play the game, and require them to leave the same day, the whole thing begins to seem like a farce. And that is just the tip of the ice berg. This is no way to host a World Cup...

 

Portugal 2-1 Chile
USA 1-2 Germany

Panama 1-1 Bosnia
Switzerland 1-1 Australia

Bolivia 0-4 Scotland
Cape Verde 3-0 Bermuda

Qatar 0-0 El Salvador
Jamaica 1-1 South Africa

Venezuela 1-2 Turkey
Argentina 2-0 Honduras

 

Friendlies are friendlies, but here are some casual observations from some recently played friendlies:

Haiti 1 x 2 Peru

While leading the game 1-0, Haiti missed some good opportunities and eventually lost to Peru 1-2. Haiti's goal started on a high-press situation. Lots of vertical passes and some good one on one situations. They gave up two goals on corner kicks. Bad sign. Their first game is against Scotland and the Scots are really good on set plays.

Mexico 5 x 1 Serbia

Serbia in full rebuild mode, and Mexico still undefeated in 2026. They exchanged some gifts (Serbia's first goal and Mexico's second and fourth goals). Good build-up on Mexico's third goal. Confidence is building. They should be hard to beat at home.

Belgium 5 x 0 Tunisia

Tunisia is no pushover, and Belgium showed their fangs. Tunisia left with ten men in a game that was more physical than what it really needed to be. Belgium displaying high press, speed and quality down the wings, and variety in their plays. Heavy favorites to win group G, in my humble opinion.

Portugal 2 x 1 Chile

Another game that was more physical than it should. Rafael Leao and a Chilean defender sent off for pushing, shoving, getting into each other's faces, and other senseless bull$h!t. Portugal fell asleep on Chile's goal. A really good team on paper, but they seemed a little flat yesterday, especially in the first half. I have very high expectations for Portugal. It should have been an easy win for Portugal against a team that didn't get even close to qualify for the world cup, but they made it more difficult than it should.

USA 1 x 2 Germany

Strong showing for the stars and stripes yesterday, but still came out second best. It concerns me that the USA gave up 11 goals in their last four games (one win, three defeats). Super golazo by Antonee Robinson, who picked up an injury during the game. Sergino Dest and Pulisic played well very well yesterday. Kudos to Germany for finding a way to beat the US in their home turf. As usual, their set plays were on point. Sane, Musiala, and Havertz are really hard to mark. On a side note, not sure what's up with the grass at Soldier Field, but there were some weird bounces and players struggling to control the ball.

Brazil 2 x 1 Egypt

Brazil provided a Christmas gift in June (Egypt's goal), courtesy of Marquinhos. Ancelotti had yet another prototype of a team on display yesterday. This time, a more traditional 4-3-3 with a traditional playmaker (Lucas Paqueta) and a striker (Igor Thiago). One week into the world cup and the star of their show is the high press, which produced two goals yesterday. I really like Endrick and Luiz Henrique as second-half subs for Brazil. Either or both of them can change the game. Brazil's starting right back, Wesley, picked up a groin injury yesterday, and will likely miss the world cup. Egypt had a good counter attack, but other than that, they looked uninspiring and lacked creativity. They will likely be fighting with Iran for second place in their group (Belgium is the clear favorite).

 

That's unfortunate. Useless FIFA Series exhibition matches must add tons of unnecessary bias to your prediction model.

Friendly matches are necessary sandboxes for coaches, thus rather useless for competition performance prediction.

I guess every model must have a blind spot.

 

Oh, dear God! Was that ERIKSEN again, who just DROPPED to the turf in Odense???

Who has official 'news'?? Please post!

 

I saw on the websites that the game was abandoned, I thought maybe it was crowd trouble. Prayers.

 

Of course, the broadcaster is required NOT to show the audience what's happening. But before they 'cut away'...one could see Eriksen clutch his chest area and could hear those on the touchline shouting for a stoppage.

Online news sources now say that Eriksen was able to "walk into an ambulance". Life is precious; end the football career NOW.

 

Norway and Morocco both putting out pretty much their strongest possible lineup.

First pre WC friendly ive seen where both teams do this. Should be a banger.

 

Kinda wish I had kept my free trial to ESPN Deportes. Good to see a more entertaining first half lineup...

 

Already the first minutes look like a game played at world cup pace. Hope they don't make 20 substitutions at half-time.

 

While I don't doubt that Haiti may be bad at defending set plays, this may be a misleading conclusion with the amount of changes that they did.

Haiti did 7 subs at half time and 2 more subs before they conceded the other two goals.

Not familiar enough to say which Haiti players were the indisputed starters or subs

 

Croatia 2 Slovenia 1
Morocco 1 Norway 1
Ecuador 3 Guatemala 0

 

Surprisingly, they didn't. Morocco waited until the 64th minute for their first big batch of subs, and Norway waited to minute 72. Unfortunately, Mazraoui left early on injured.
Odegaard played nearly the entire match on a very hot day in New York, and got a late equalizer. Oscar Bobb looked quite dangerous in attack once he came on.

 

Costly friendly for Morocco against Norway, as they were hit with a double injury to two star players before the start of the tournament:

Mazraoui and Ezzalzouli injury concerns for Morocco ahead of World Cup opener

 

Norway were playing rough. It was a frustrating day for them. They were getting schooled until the subs around the 70 minute mark. Apparently Haaland had only 4 touches in his 70 minutes on the field. His lowest stat since 2019.