Post-match: 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw; December 5th - 12pm

The reason for no negative points from knockouts is for situations like a group where two teams get 4 points, one of them advances on goal difference and loses the first knockout, while the other is out in the group stage. With negative points for the knockout loss, the team that advanced gets a worse ranking result from the tournament than the team that got grouped.

For a neutral data-based analysis of the teams, the knockout loss is another valid data point to throw into the calculation, and it's better not to give it any special treatment. FIFA isn't really using the rankings as neutral data-based analysis, though.

 

Looking at the 3 past WCs with this format (86-94 had the same format as next year, just at half scale) and adjusting 86/90 for 3-1-0, the worst 3rd place team to advance would've been:

1986 - 2 pts/-2 GD (Bulgaria)
1990 - 3/0 (Holland)
1994 - 4/0 (Italy; Russia was first out with 3/+1)

Not sure if there's any big picture statistical importance but in 1990 3 teams would have finished with 3 points under 3 for a win; Holland drew all of their games and would have advanced, Austria and Scotland both won 1, lost 2 and finished on -1 GD. What this probably does mean in terms of advancing as a 3rd place team is that if you go 1-1-1 you really need that positive GD (not just not negative), as there are likely to be at least 1 or 2 teams that draw all of their games.

 

I'd go out of my way to say nothing of Qatar.

Literally lost every single qualifier on the road save North Korea, whom they tied (that's Iran, Uzbekistan, UAE and Kyrgyzstan), also lost 1-3 to UAE at home. Yeah they won the Asian Cup, but they were hosting, and faced none of the big boys, their path was:
Tajikistan
Lebanon
China
R16 vs Palestine
QF vs Uzbekistan (won via penalties)
Iran (the one exception to big boys)
Jordan (in the final).

No South Korea, no Japan, no Australia, 3 of the best 4 teams in AFC.

They suck.

They only qualified for the WC because they could advance to a final round despite only earning only 1 road point in 5 matches, to a knockout phase that was then corrupted by the region to allow the Saudi's and Qatar to host their own qualifying tournament lol, which they SHOCK!, won, by the skin of their teeth (tying Oman, and beating UAE 2-1)....

I look forward to seeing them get annihilated.

Sorry for the rant, I was just super, super grossed out by their system of qualification.

 

I get the reason. It still doesn't work right, though.

 

With 3 points for a win, Hungary advances in '86 with 3 pts and -7 GD, courtesy of a 2-0 win over Canada sandwiched between heavy defeats to the USSR and France.

Also 1-1-1 is 4 pts, so GD doesn't matter when comparing to teams on 3 draws.

 

The team you saw play the USA was much like the USA team in terms of personnel. It was a post qualification friendly but a long time before the tournament. Lots of fringe players getting a run and a few regulars not even in the squad. The style will be similar, but I would be surprised if more than half of the 22 that started the match will be starting the World Cup match.

 

I do not believe that this is true. I believe that FIFA’s algo only accounts for the result of the match and not the score and they weight certain competitions more heavily, especially if a team reaches the knockout rounds. Like our wins in continental competitions and World Cup placement have artificially inflated our FIFA ranking the entire cycle.

 

It's an easier group than 2022. I don't see why 2026 would be harder to finish top two than 2022.

England > Turkey
Paraguay = Iran
Wales = Australia

 

Maybe ... but in ELO, using Year End for 2022:

England 8 - 15 Turkey
Iran 27 - 21 Paraguay
Wales 39 - Australia 30

I don't think ELO is necessarily right to this level of detail, but it's worth noting in terms of ranks, this group would be harder.

In terms of ELO total, 5486 for 2026 and 5462 for 2022 (I think - too lazy to use a calculator). Pretty close.

But it's probably easier to finish Top 2 in 2022 because once you remove England, Iran was worse than Paraguay by the stats, at least. And without a great route to a Top 3 ... this group is easier to win but I'm not sure it's easier to advance relative to other groups.

With 48 teams, it should have been MUCH easier, but it seems like it's going to be similar to get to the Round of 32 whereas we went to the Round of 16. With that being an elimination game, our chances of getting to the Round of 16 is probably quite a bit lower this tournament.

Of course, if Turkey flops out of the playoff, things change significantly.

 

Ironically, being Pot 1 is part of why our group is more difficult. Had we been Pot 2, there's a better chance we'd have drawn a Euro team, satisfying the "minimum one Euro" requirement and opening up a chance to draw a cupcake out of 4 (Jordan, Cabo Verde, NZ). It's part of why I think RO16 is a reasonable goal to set, because it will be even more difficult than in past WCs, because even though we could advance out of 3rd place, that would mean we'd have to pull an upset in R32. Finishing top 2, which will be just as difficult as it was with 32, would set us up with either a 3rd or a 2nd, which we would have to win to make R16.

 

Who were the bigger names that Australia left out of the match, in your opinion?

 

We don't have any big names, just some more experienced players. Harry Souttar and Jackson Irvine were two regular starters missing through injury that do add something to the team. Others are of similar standard to what we have elswhere. Also no A League players were selected as their season hadn't started yet. I'll give you my thoughts and a bit of background on the players from the USA friendly

Ryan- Long term no 1 that may be under pressure for the spot as Popovic has given a few others a go. Rizzo could take over. He is a better shot stopper than Ryan but not as good with the ball at his feet.
Geria - been a fringe player for a year or so and got a debut from the new coach who had coached him at club level. Unlikely starter.
Burgess - Been around for a bit and probably be a starter if we stick with a back 3 but may be a rotation player as competition is tight here. Apart from Souttar we would just be replacing him with a player of similar ability.
Circatti - A young player with talent. He has already been a stand in captain in a couple of matches. Definite starter if fit
Italiano - Only made his debut a few days before the friendly. Went OK but we need to see if he steps up. Not there now but could be a starter by the world cup.
O'Neill - been around a bit but more of a squad and sub player right now. Could get a start if we are rotating.
Bos - Will start if fit.
Ballard - Only made his debut in the previous friendly window. Has a bit of talent and could step up to first 11 by the World cup.
Metcalfe - On the cusp of first team selection. Will probably feature in the World Cup
Boyle - Been around a while but I'm not sure Popovic's style of play suits him. I think he will just be a squad player from now on.
D'Agostino - hasn't really featured at national team level and I think Popovic was giving him a chance. May not even make the squad.

Subs we used that game

Duke - Very experienced and works hard . Getting long in the tooth. He was really our only international quality frontman for a long time. If he makes the squad he will only play if we get really defensive as he is good at being a lone man up front and harassing defenders. I don't think he will make it though
Yazbek - A squad player currently. May get a run in the first team. Only young so could improve and consolidate his position
M Toure - made his debut in the previous friendly window and looked good so far. Has tended to be a bit injury prone but if fit he could become our regular central striker.
Hrustic - Been around a while. Had an injury and club problems that kept him out of the picture for a bit and only recently returned. Hasn't been as good for us as he was before the injury and time out. If he gets back to that form will be a potential starter
Irankunda - A youngster with talent and ability but still lots to learn. An unstoppable match winner on his day and looks a bit lost on the field when it's not. Hopefully gets more consistent by the World cup. Had a good window in the Canada / USA games, not so much in the Venezuala Colombia window.
Miller - Likely starter at right wing back. has his detractors on social media in Australia but I don't think many have forgiven him for that last minute penalty in the Asian Cup.

Whilst you will likely see a team with different players the style of play won't change much. I thought we played OK in that game and we have some scope for improvement. Of course so does the USA.

 

Thank you, much appreciated summary.

Irandunka strikes me as a player who could make his mark at a World Cup. I was happy to see him on the bench at the start of the friendly, and he unbalanced us when he came on. And Bos turned us around a little bit, he is a good player.

I hope this doesn’t come across as patronizing, because I mean it in a sort of forlorn sense, but Australia seems like a team greater than the sum of its parts in a way the US team used to be. Next Summer we will rely on our home crowd in Seattle and hopefully, our quality, to take three points. But I do think we are a team who may drop points, or lose, to a squad that is greater than the sum of their parts like Australia.

 

We are definitely a team that plays better than the sum of it's parts. Some of the young guys that have emerged recently give me some hope for the future that we can get back to where we were in the 2000's. An interesting thing is that we had our best ever result in 2022 with what most of us (me included) felt was our worst ever squad man for man. I've no idea what will happen next year. I think every points total from zero to 9 (with the exception of 8) is a possibility. As I've said elsewhere it wouldn't surprise me if every team wins a game at some stage.

 

We could win every game or lose every game in our group but we should do well.

Our player pool is the most talented of anyone in the group my a wide margin, our form has turned around and we’re playing at home where we will get fantastic support.. probably like we have never seen before.

That’s not everything obviously but it is a lot.

We will likely be favored in every game by the bookies.

Everyone is writing in Turkey but I wouldn’t. They have to win 2 knockout games against decent competition. Thats not guaranteed in the slightest.

I think it would be interesting to play a Slovakia or Romania. I hope it happens.

 

Looking at Turkey ... their Badge FC is similar to us thru each teams starters, probably 1/2 a notch down.

They a BL veteran and a couple other foreign legionnaures on the bench. And then the rest are in the Turkish league. Which of course is a good league.

But our Bench FC has Gladbach/Leverkusen, probably Villareal, Augsburg, maybe Atletco and Juve, , Marseille, PSV. And so on.

I dont think its commonly appreciated the level of depth that we have, at least on a Badge FC level.

 

On form it could be Kosovo.

 

That and the manager adjusting the system.

 

So we're pulling for the team that isn't on form that can win against the run of play? I'm thinking Romania as we always have difficulty with the tall squads from the Balkans.

 

Agreed. I've been fighting this war for years on the board (such a hero keyboard warrior ) when people have attacked the depth, arguing that the depth should be treated the same way as the XI, in comparison to where it was at in the past. All you need to do is look at off year gold cups, and cupcake friendlies going back decades to understand that our depth is miles better than it's ever been. It just looks worse because some of our best, are just orders of magnitude better, and the holes, are so bad currently (GK, CB top end talent, which is basically non-existent because all of our best CB prospects other than Richards have either flamed out, or hit the floor of expectation since that U20 squad made of '01's, '02's, and '03's through '05's began funneling in).

The reality is that other than Brian McBride, we did not develop any out and out strikers whatsoever between the late 1980's and 2019 other than Altidore. Zero, essentially 30 years, and 1 prospect hit. Now we've developed Pepi, Wright, Sargent, Agyemang, and recruited dual nat Balo. You need to look over past years to get that basically our top strikers cycle to cycle, other than McBride, and Altidore, from 1996-2019, were essentially the equivalent of poor man's Brian White's at best, and usually much worse.

The same is true at WF, where other than '02, we were pretty thin, same at creative CM, where we basically had Ramos, Reyna, and Donovan and nothing else ever, at the 6 we usually had 1 per cycle, plus a destroyer who typically lacked any ball skills, we literally did not have a LB for nearly 30 years lol until dual nat Jedi who we didn't develop, now we have guys to plug and play guys behind him that aren't him but are certainly much better than the starting options virtually every cycle going back a century.

The reality is that the depth we have behind our starters is far better than ever before in every single position save CB, where it's just a ton of backup quality options, and GK, where we've had a pipeline problem going back 20 years (we haven't really developed a legit GK from prospect status to stud pro since Howard and Guzan (who was solid, not a stud)....We have high hopes for Kochen, and can pray about Gaga, Schulte, Brady turn into something more than meh, but yeah, if people want to attack the depth and talent issues at GK and CB I'm not going to argue, for the most part, as GK has been a problem for a decade other than Turner's brief 2 year run of form, and we just haven't had good CB's, in the past I'd argue and I'd still argue, we actually have a lot of CB depth, it's just virtually all #3 or #4 types circa 1990-2014, almost none of them are startable with a sense of comfort.

 

I'd also say Bobby Wood had about a 2 year stretch where he was very good for both club and country, otherwise totally agree with this.

 

If you've been fighting this war for years, it's not that you've been right this whole time, it's that the depth has finally started to fill in.

And that's a probably for me -- yes, Badge FC looks better, and the eyeball test looks better over the last couple of windows ... but until they prove it on the field, Badge FC is meaningless.

And we finished the last Gold Cup -- with a decent number of starters, btw, in the same place we usually do: a loss in the Finals to Mexico. It's absolutely hard to claim our depth is better when the 2021 team did what this one couldn't do and the 2023 mess matched it.

I think overall depth is starting to get there, though. I generally agree. But I think the Badge FC aspect is a bit overrated because I don't think that say, Tanner Tessman right now is playing all that much better than Maurice Edu, but between age and the dynamics of how Americans are perceived ... a part of the better Badge FC is simply the market changing. And I used Tessman to make it close -- shall we do Yunus Musah?

Part of the reason that our depth looks worse is definitely injury as well. But health is a skill.

But I also think we shouldn't handwave away where we had some pretty strong depth in the past - like basically maybe best in the world depth at GK at points.

Positionally ...

Striker is clearly deeper, and better at the top as well. The only time recently we might have touched it was the short time with Charlie, and that's only if you are really skeptical about Wright or you move Clint up here. I really can't remember ever having three strikers with a good scoring record, even if Wright is pretty one dimensional.

Attacking Mid / Winger / Wide Mid is an interesting one. The formation changes make this a bit hard to compare apples to apples, but if Pulisic, Tillman and Dest are starters here, then Weah, Reyna, Luna, Zendejas are up against guys like Beasley, Feilhaber and the 'stache. It's a little hard because we play more of these guys now. I think that's an edge for now but not nearly so large as one might think. Perhaps an another era has a claim, but my default here is 2010 with Landon and Clint as the starters.

Center mid is also interesting. I've put Adams and McKennie as starters, and most of our past was a reliable 2-3 deep. It certainly seems really deep now, but it's either because we could slide Tillman back, or its reliant on guys like Tessman, Roldan and Morris ... none of whom are proven past a couple of windows ... or it's total Badge FC with Cardoso and Musah, the former who needs to prove it with the US and the latter who needs to find a game somewhere.

So ... yeah, I actually really like a few of our guys and think we won't have issues here at the World Cup if we're reasonably healthy, but I also think the Badge FC listing still needs some seasoning. And frankly, Roldan might be one of our best second string options and that's not Badge FC at all.

Fullback ... good luck. Even if you swing Dest back to RB, which I'm not convinced he plays for Poch yet ... eh. It's (a hurt) Jedi, Dest, so then Arfsten, Freeman and a very Badge FC Scally ... and Tolkin. Have we really never had better depth than this? Certainly more potential and much better on offense, but we had some defensively solid depth.

CB ... I'm not even sure how to think about this, but we really have one guy anyone relies on. I'm not even sure we get to depth, even with Badge FC.

GK ... no.

Verdict: Much better attacking talent including attacking FBs. Worse defending and goalkeeper, and by a fair bit. Central mid likely better but it's fuzzier than people want to admit. I'll give it a "getting there."

 

Thinking about it more, I don't think this is a terrible draw, but it's not the dream draw people are saying, and here's why:

• Structurally, this group is different from 2022 and prior because advancing out of it only gets you to the Round of 32.
• That means that to get similar success, you must advance out of the group AND win a knockout match.
• For all teams, this will be a bit harder because 48 > 32, but this is mitigated by the fact that 3rd place teams advance and the last 16 teams generally aren't as good.
• But here's the problem with our group: the lack of a New Caledonia or a Curacao reduces our chances of getting through as a third place team. That nearly automatic 3 points and likely positive goal differential in some groups guarantees advancement. Canada may get Italy, but Canada really only has to beat Qatar and score a draw or perhaps even beat Qatar by a few to get through. Scotland gets Haiti, etc. I would not be shocked to see a Curacao or a Qatar be a tough out, but a good half the groups have this edge.
• And our group gets harder because we're getting one of the best from Pot 4. So everyone has a chance to get through -- there's no clear #4 in the group. And there's no way to pad goal differential.
• Then, if we win the group, we actually get a likely harder knockout than normal just out of bad luck. Of course, we may not win the group, but Clint posted some odds that we are 63% to get out of the group and 51% to beat our knockout opponent. That's a 32% chance of making the round of 16!
• I think those odds are low based on a low ELO compared to what we roll out at the World Cup, but the reality is that we are likely under a 50% chance to repeat our success at the 2022 World Cup. And well under a 25% chance to make it to the quarters.

 

FIFA could make their rankings more meaningful by having the third-place tiebreakers be based on them. Give 48 tiebreaker points for each point earned against the Number 1 ranked team in the WC. 47 points for the second highest ranked team. Etc. Teams in tougher groups have the opportunity to earn more points, but that’s only fair since they’re in the tougher groups.

 

If we can't beat 2 of the 3 teams in our group, then we shouldn't be advancing. Yes, we could advance with 5 or 4 points or whatever, but screw that. I would much rather see us play to win and losing than going for a tie and "safely" advancing. The only teams you remember are the ones who make it to the final, so finishing 3-whatever doesn't mean anything. Play to win and not be afraid to lose.