2026 Cycle - Attendance and Home Match Location Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by schrutebuck, Aug 25, 2023.

  1. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    In defense of US fans in New York, attendance at US friendlies in the two years after the 2014 World Cup was very mixed. And some surprising stadiums had some atrocious numbers.

    Morale for US fans fell into the dumpster for obvious reasons after that World Cup.
     
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  2. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    One argument that I think that USSF has been overrating in importance is travel. US teams have traveled to Central America and the Caribbean and back for matches for years, but in the last few years suddenly the team has gone overboard in trying to limit travel. This is something that has damaged the ability to rotate US matches to different markets, and it basically eliminates anything west of Kansas City or Texas unless the team had to prepare for a match at altitude in Mexico, or if the team has a match leading into another match against Canada in Vancouver.

    Now, a reasonable exception can be made for the 2021-22 World Cup qualifiers, because trying to squeeze in back and forth and back again travel for 3 matches in 6 days across 3 different countries is ridiculous.
     
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  3. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When did the US play friendlies in Central America and the Caribbean?

    Central American and Caribbean teams want to play in the US for good rea$$ons.
     
  4. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    I'm talking about competitive matches like World Cup and Nations League qualifiers.

    USSF has started limiting its options for host cities in a way that it never did prior to 2018. This was reasonable in qualifiers in 2021-22 due to the ridiculous schedule that the US had to deal with, but it's unnecessary in all other situations.
     
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  5. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To answer my own question.... since the 1994 World Cup.


    1994
    Trinidad November
    1999
    Jamaica September
    2003
    Jamaica February
    2012
    Panama January
    2016
    Puerto Rico March
    Cuba October
     
  6. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    Somewhat relevant from Jonathan Tannenwald: he reached out to TNT to ask their Top 10 viewership markets for the two US national teams this year:

    1. New York 2. Los Angeles 3. D.C. 4. Chicago 5. SF Bay Area 6. Boston 7. Philadelphia 8. Seattle 9. Denver 10. Dallas-Fort Worth

    This isn't a perfect set of information, because of course Tannenwald could have also asked for a Top 10 of average ratings per viewership market, and not just total households. And this information also combines TV ratings for the US Men's and US Women's teams.

    If Nielsen uses MSA size for this metric, then here's what that adjustment would look like:

    New York (1st), Los Angeles (2nd), DC (7th), Chicago (3rd), San Francisco (13th), Boston (11th), Philadelphia (8th), Seattle (15th), Denver (19th), Dallas (4th)

    New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia perform as expected based on their market size. DC, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, and Denver overperform. Dallas underperforms. Houston, Atlanta, Miami, and Phoenix are not in the Top 10.

    No surprises IMO. Generally corresponds to trends that I've seen with competitions like the World Cup and Premier League, once time zone effects are taken into account.
     
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  7. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    They aren't adjusting for size. It's just raw viewers. So the winners are really Seattle and Denver, as well as DC.

    The San Francisco metro is smaller because they break it up but I'm pretty sure the media market is Top 7 or so.
     
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  8. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #258 Clint Eastwood, Nov 1, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2024
    If Seattle had a grass field, they'd get a lot more games. Denver has its inherent issues.

    Also worth pointing out that last year Euros viewership was up 34% and Copa America viewership was up 44% (despite the US' early exit) over the previous versions.

    San Francisco, for instance, was a top 5 market for both the Euros final and the Copa America final. So not just a good USMNT viewership market. Good soccer market period.
    FOX Sports Shatters Viewership Records for UEFA Euro 2024™ and Conmebol Copa América 2024™ - Fox Sports Press Pass

    Miami was top 5 in both too. There's the Messi effect for Copa America. That doesn't explain how they did so well in Euros viewership. Turning into just a good soccer market.
     
  9. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's not San Francisco, it's the San Francisco Bay Area.

    Huge difference.
     
  10. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    #260 schrutebuck, Nov 1, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2024
    I think the pattern shown in the Tannenwald tweet holds within the Top 20ish metro areas.

    More interest (compared to the baseline) in the US national team in the Northeast, West Coast, and in major US cities that resemble those coastal city tendencies like Chicago and Denver. Less interest compared to the baseline in the Sun Belt as well as cities where interest in soccer is more focused on Latin America.

    Though I think this pattern breaks down outside the Top 20 metro areas. Cities where MLS has invested like Columbus, Cincinnati and Kansas City perform quite well in these types of analyses. I've noticed that smaller cities in Virginia outside of DC always perform well in tracking of soccer TV ratings; I've always thought that the lack of pro sports outside of DC and less intense college sports has made the area more open to the Premier League and US national team.

    Of course, this is the attendance thread rather than the TV thread. And that's where this becomes trickier to manage.
     
  11. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I worked in New York City for an Anglo-American company based in London which became an Anglo-Canadian company based on New York.

    Just the fact that there were so many Europeans in the office meant there were lots of soccer related water cooler discussions and the locals took an interest in the EPL and UCL as a result, some even picking a team and traveling to the occasional match (I could never persuade any of them to take an interest in MLS).

    So I think being in international environments opens people's minds about other sports, particularly soccer.

    The most popular sport that had everyone assembled around the office TVs... women's curling.
     
  12. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    I wonder if/how the inclusion of Spanish Language broadcasts would change the numbers.
     
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  13. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    #263 schrutebuck, Nov 3, 2024
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2024
    Yeah, that is a definitely flaw in the arguments that I've been making here.

    Some data points for the US national team that I've found:

    Fox Soccer did announce the Top 5 cities for each match in 2022 (note that they did not have Spanish-language TV rights):

    Wales: Austin, Cincinnati, Dallas, San Diego, Philadelphia
    England: Kansas City, Hartford, Boston, Dallas, Washington DC
    Iran: Washington DC, Providence , Boston, Baltimore, Kansas City
    Netherlands: Cincinnati, St. Louis, Washington DC, Kansas City, Austin

    2014 TV ratings on ESPN, also English-language only:

    USA-Ghana in 2014: Washington, D.C., led all markets for ESPN’s USA vs. Ghana telecast with an 11.8 rating, followed by New York (10.2), Hartford-New Haven (10.1) and Boston (10.0) at a 10.0 rating or higher. The remaining top 10: Columbus, Ohio (8.9), Baltimore (8.7), Providence (8.4), Orlando (8.3), San Francisco (8.0) and Norfolk (7.8).

    USA-Portugal in 2014: Washington, D.C., led all markets for ESPN’s USA vs. Portugal telecast with a 13.3 rating, followed by Columbus (12.6), New York (12.5), Boston (11.5), Hartford/New Haven (11.3), Providence (11.2), Atlanta (11.1), Baltimore (11.0), Norfolk (10.5), Orlando (10.5) and Sacramento (10.5).

    USA-Germany in 2014: New York led all markets for ESPN’s USA vs. Germany telecast with a 9.7 rating, followed by San Diego (8.6), Sacramento (8.3), Seattle/Tacoma (8.1), Orlando (8.1), Baltimore (8.1), Columbus (8.1), West Palm Beach (7.9), Providence (7.6), San Francisco (7.2) and Austin (7.2).

    USA-Belgium in 2014: New York led all markets for ESPN’s USA vs. Belgium telecast with a 15.0 rating, followed by Hartford/New Haven (13.2), Washington, D.C., (12.8), Richmond (12.3), Boston (12.2), West Palm Beach (12.0), Baltimore (11.4), Cincinnati (11.4), San Diego (11.0), Columbus (10.8), Norfolk (10.8) and Orlando (10.8).

    Based on the above, Top 5 appearances in 2022:
    3 – Kansas City, Washington DC
    2 – Austin, Boston, Cincinnati, Dallas
    1 – Baltimore, Hartford, Philadelphia, Providence, San Diego, St. Louis

    Based on the above, Top 10 appearances in 2014:
    4 – Baltimore, Columbus, New York, Orlando
    3 – Boston, Hartford, Norfolk, Providence, Washington DC
    2 – Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, West Palm Beach
    1 – Atlanta, Austin, Cincinnati, Richmond, Seattle

    Generally, when I see these types of TV ratings posts for individual markets, the Premier League leans towards the East Coast with a few West Coast and Midwest cities sprinkled in. While MLS does best in national broadcasts in smaller US markets along with the local markets of the team that is playing.
     
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  14. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nielsen does not use MSA--it has its own market definitions based mainly on the reach of the local network affiliates.

    New York (1) Los Angeles (2) DC (8) Chicago (3) San Francisco (10) Boston (9) Philadelphia (5) Seattle (13) Denver (17) Dallas (4)
     
  15. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    Poch confirmed that January camp is happening in 2025 in the Miami area.

    If I was in charge, then I would play one match in Miami, as the last match that I can recall in the Miami area was a friendly after the 2014 World Cup.

    Then if they organize another match, place it in a secondary market somewhere else in the Southeast. Don't play in Orlando, because the US always plays there.
     
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  16. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wouldn't play it in Miami as there's no suitable soccer specific stadium there and USSF is being sued by the owners of the Hard Rock.
     
  17. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I assume "the Miami area" means Ft. Lauderdale.
     
  18. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    My assumption is the Florida Atlantic stadium where they played in 2014 or Inter Miami's current stadium.
     
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  19. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Schrutebuck said Miami.
     
  20. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The post in this thread said "the Miami area" and linked to a tweet that said "the Miami area."
     
  21. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't replying to that post.
     
  22. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Nice to see the January Camp in Florida as opposed to California or Texas.
     
  23. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
     
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  24. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Someone from California booing.

    Cry me a river.
    Seems like 99% of these January contests are played in your state.
    Spread it out a little.
     
  25. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Yeah, I wonder why that is. Hmmm...

    And anyone in California can boo because just look up the last time the most populous state got a real game that wasn't a B team matchup. It's been FOREVER.
     

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