She is a governor without a base. She would lose a primary to any half-decent candidate, especially if they came from her left. Which I strongly hope happens.
That's what I meant. I think it would be a hard sell to ditch the first female governor of NY, but maybe another woman could challenge her?
She would not win the upstate vote. Hochul has upstate Dems happy cause she is from upstate and moderate republicans like her as she doesn't come of as a jerk like cuomo. The blank smile works for her.
Yeah, an unpopular one who almost lost the LG primary in 2018. The last incumbent governor to not face a semi-serious primary challenge was George Pataki - Cuomo never cracked 2/3 of the primary vote in his re-election bids. She'll have an opponent, especially if she's (rightly) viewed as an anchor on the party.
When you said 3, you meant 4. District 3 had Republican George Santos resign, and Democrat Tom Suozzi gained the seat in a special election. It would be in 2026, not next year. New York's big election next year is for mayor of New York City. We will see who primary challenges Hochul. I would not be surprised if Representative Jamaal Bowman, who lost his primary this year, runs for mayor or governor, and AOC could campaign for him. 538 created a Senate forecast, and gives Republicans an 87 percent chance of control. They do not believe polls showing Dan Osborn is near-even with Deb Fischer, as they give Fischer a 95 percent chance of winning. They also do not give Larry Hogan a chance, as they have him winning in 3 of 1,000 simulations. They expect nine Senate seats to be decided by under 10, seven to be decided by 10 to 19.9, 12 to be decided by 20 to 29.9, five to be decided by 30 to 39.9, and Wyoming to be decided by 45.8. For the House, 538 increased Democrats from winning 500 to 503 simulations. Two tossups were moved, with one going in each direction. In Maine 2, Democrat Jared Golden went from a 47 percent chance and a tossup rating to a 60 percent chance and a Lean D rating, and that did not come from leading a poll. He trailed in the most recent poll, albeit it was made by Republicans. They have Democrats more likely to win in 218 districts, with the median being California 45, which has Republican incumbent Michelle Steel winning 496 of 1,000 simulations. They have 28 districts with a margin of 5.0 or less, with Democrats leading in 13 of them, and having 9 of them now. Arizona, California, Iowa, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have at least two of those districts. Each party wins at least 230 seats in 72 simulations, making there be an 85.6 percent chance of the House being 229-206 or closer.
Ah! Thank you. I got the two mixed up. Bowman would be a terrible choice, par for NY. And thank you for the Paragraph breaks!
I am pretty sure that cook political moves races back and forth just to generate clicks, but I guess I am a sucker for it. OH13 moves to lean Democrat. HOUSE RATING CHANGE: #OH13 moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.@MattKleinOnline explains why Rep. Emilia Sykes holds a narrow edge:https://t.co/NBBircs1k9— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 24, 2024
Ohio may be in trouble. Scoop: Sherrod Brown has privately told donors that he can win his race if Harris loses Ohio by LESS THAN 8 points. Where is Trump polling in Ohio? With an 8.5 point lead. More on Brown’s benchmark w/ @HansNichols https://t.co/oGkrVyuWdF— Stephen Neukam (@stephen_neukam) October 25, 2024
Don’t know the polls in MO, but damn, that was a great speech: Stop what you're doing and watch this. @LucasKunceMO deserves to be in the US Senate.pic.twitter.com/rutUjBRDDq— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) November 1, 2024 My God @LucasKunceMO just steamrolled Josh Hawley.pic.twitter.com/7spfHLcHDV— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) November 1, 2024
Those do not guarantee win but Dems have both money and momentum on their side this last weekend before E-Day. Punchbowl News: “All cycle, House Democrats have bragged about their fundraising advantage over the GOP. In the home stretch of the campaign, that financial upper hand is paying dividends in a major way.” “In 22 of the 25 toss-up House races, Democrats outspent Republicans on the airwaves in the month of October. This is a wild stat.”
Something went very wrong with the Seltzer samples or Democrats are going to crush it in Iowa. 🚨Selzer Congressional District Polling🚨(All four seats currently held by GOP)Iowa’s 1st Congressional District 🔵 Christina Bohannan - 53%🔴 Mariannette Miller-Meeks - 37%Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District 🔴 Ashley Hinson - 45%🔵 Sarah Corkery - 42%Iowa’s 3rd…— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) November 3, 2024
Ok, so we did a last Montana poll. I've shut off replies. Here's the details:10/31-11/3 n=766 MOE +/- 3.54%53-47 f/m28D-36R-36ITop linesPresident:Trump 51 Harris 39 Other 5US Senate:Tester 49 Sheehy 45 Daoud 4— Stephen Leuchtman 🇺🇦 (@leuchtman) November 4, 2024
It took me awhile to find out who Daoud was. Google referred me to the first president of Afghanistan but I'm pretty sure he's dead.
There it is, West Virginia is gone forever. "Jim Justice, the Republican governor of West Virginia, cruised to victory, flipping Senator Joe Manchin's seat to the Republicans." https://www.threads.net/@nytimes/post/DCApwqES0Tj?xmt=AQGzXRWDxrpzm4V43Yo_WnLBB52WYd8iw2wEm6Wtq1kT2w
Gallegos wins Arizona Projection:Democrat Ruben Gallego is the Projected Winner in the Arizona Senate Election. He will defeat Republican Kari Lake.Democratic Gain#ElectionDay #Election2024 #AZSen pic.twitter.com/rDfU39J5Va— The Election Center (@ElectionCenter_) November 6, 2024
Issue 1 in Ohio has failed. That was the one that would set up an independent redistrict commission. Decision Desk HQ projects Issue 1 fails in Ohio#DecisionMade: 9:35 PM EDTFollow live results here:https://t.co/jCXQNUim81— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024
The independent, Dan Osborn is ahead in Nebraska, 52.4 to 47.6, not called yet. Could be important to deny R control of the senate.