Ohioans can tell us if this is a big deal or not 👀Former Ohio Governor Bob Taft (R) endorses @SherrodBrown (D) for #OHSen.Taft is not only a Republican, he’s the only person to have beaten Brown in a political race — the 1990 campaign for Ohio Secretary of State.Via @daytondailynews: https://t.co/DKnLoLgyym— Taylor Popielarz (@TaylorPopielarz) October 20, 2024
She has become more blue dog than light pink over the years. I am waiting for her to run as an independent.
Taft is a Kasich-era republican so I don’t think it means much to Trump cultists, which are Moreno’s only real supporters. If you were voting Trump/Moreno nothing will change that. I do think it could help people vote Brown and maybe not vote in the presidential election at all.
Polling in Alaska is probably hard and this was always going to be a hard seat to hold. New: GOP internal of Alaska House race nabbed first by @POLITICO:ROUND 1:🔴 Begich — 49.1 percent🔵 Peltola — 44.5 percent🟡 Howe — 4 percent🔵 Hafner — 2.4 percentHAFNER eliminatedhttps://t.co/TQ55clxLSY— Anthony Adragna (@AnthonyAdragna) October 21, 2024
Oh, I thought this was a real poll when I saw it earlier today. Internal polls are useless for the public. We only see the ones campaigns want us to see.
Also, remember that Alaska has ranked choice voting. So in this case, Hafner is eliminated, most/all of their votes go to Peltola, then Howe is eliminated and most/all of their votes go to Peltola. The only question would be how many didn't put a second and third choice and if any went to Begich.
Cook political is shifting some Senate races to the Republicans. Maybe it's a good time to start consuming hard drugs. Edit: I misread, they moved one towards each party. With two weeks to go, two new Senate CPR Race Rating changes:#PASEN: Lean D to Toss Up#NESEN: Likely R to Lean RRead @JessicaTaylor's latest: https://t.co/eTW8zC1aCX— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 21, 2024
Democrats seem to be quitting WI-01 Some warning signs for Dems in WI-01: House Majority PAC is cancelling nearly $1 million in reservations in MKE area in race between Rep. Bryan Steil (R) and Peter Barca (D)HMP previously had ~$2 million reserved in district— Lawrence Andrea (@lawrencegandrea) October 21, 2024
So, Colorado. We have an independent commission which draws congressional districts, and that might cost Dems a seat. Currently Colorado has 8 seats. 1, 2, 5, 6, and 7 are solid (I'm in district 2). District 3 is out west and to the southwest and is huge. It covers almost half the state. This was Boebert's old district, which she won by less than 600 votes to Adam Frisch. He has a bunch of cash on hand, and is out everywhere. And in 2022, the Republicans were ready to lose the district and come back with a more moderate candidate to retake it. Frisch's opponent, Jeff Hurd, is that guy. And they are running very similar campaigns, though Frisch is out there, everywhere, which Hurd is not. The race is a toss up. District 4 is out east, the former district of former representative Ken Buck until he stepped down earlier this year. This is where Boebert moved. She is not loved by Colorado Republicans, but in a district that has a huge majority of Republicans, easily won the primary. It is possible she will lose, mostly due to those who loath her not wanting her to win, but unlikely. District 8, a new district as of 2020. This covers north and northeast Denver suburbs up to Greeley. Currently held by Yadira Caraveo, there are concerns that she is not out there enough, and that is might cost her the race. Her opponent, Gabe Evans, is a former state Representative who did well in working across the aisle. Reps see this as very flippable. A thing to note is that Neguse (district 2) is likely to become a member of House leadership if the Dems flip the House. That bodes well for funding.
Good question hahaha…. coattails will be huge. Harris will win NY by 20 pts. The GOP elected reps in those 5 districts are facing strong opponents (John Avlon is one) and some have their own issues (like tone one who hired his mistress iin one of his local offices).
This is why I want Harris to swing though Colorado. District 8 is a toss up, and district 3 has possibilities, but overall, Harris will win the state easily.
If the actual results are like the poll, Hafner and Howe will probably both be eliminated. If Hafner's 2.4 percent has a distribution of 0.8 percent for Begich, 1.2 percent for Peltola, and 0.4 percent spoiled for not ranking anybody else, Begich would have 49.9 percent of the original amount, the new denominator would be 99.6 percent of the original amount, and 49.9/99.6 = 50.1 percent, so that would make Begich win without eliminating Howe. With two candidates not getting many votes, it looks similar to Maine District 2 in 2018 and Maine Senate in 2020. In the former, Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin got a plurality, but not a majority. The first choices were 46.3-45.6-5.7-2.4. With ranked choice voting, Jared Golden won 50.6-49.4. Poliquin argued that ranked choice voting is unconstitutional, and lost. Golden is the most moderate House Democrat. In 2020, Republican incumbent Susan Collins beat her polls to win without ranked choice voting. It was 51.0-42.4-5.0-1.6. The 5.0 was for a candidate whose voters would have preferred Democrat Sara Gideon, and the 1.6 percent was by a man who cut up a mask to claim that we should not be concerned about COVID. 538 has each party controlling the House in 500 of 1,000 simulations. Their expected seats would have Republicans keep the House 221-214, which is what it would be now if you gave each party the vacancies they won in 2022. Going by who leads each seat, Republicans would win 218. The last time a major party kept the same amount of House seats was in 1834, when the Jacksonians remained with 143, albeit the Anti-Jacksons gained 12 seats. The median district is represented by the aforementioned Jared Golden, who won 474 of 1,000 simulations. 538 gives Republican Mike Lawler a 60 percent chance at holding District 17, and he could be saved by the fact that the Working Family Party ran a separate candidate. New York has fusion voting, where third parties can run their own candidates, or endorse a Democrat or Republican. Results are broken down by party, so we see how many votes Republicans got as a Republican and as a Conservative, and how many votes Democrats got as a Democrat and a Working Families, with the combination varying. Republicans can get enough votes as Conservatives to win while getting fewer votes as a Republican than the Democrat got as a Democrat. 538 gives Democrat Josh Riley a 52 percent chance at defeating incumbent Marc Molinaro in District 19. Avlon is very unlikely to win District 1. Democrat Tim Bishop survived the great Republican year 2010 by winning by 0.4 percent, defeated the same opponent by 4.4 percent in 2012, and lost to Lee Zeldin by 8.9 in the great Republican year of 2014. It is entirely in Suffolk County, which cast the most votes of any county that Trump won in 2020. The district does not have western Suffolk's heavily minority towns. District 4's Anthony D'Esposito, who represents southern Nassau County where I spent most of my life, is the one with a mistress. That district had Biden's greatest margin of victory in any district currently represented by a Republican. District 22's Brandon Williams is trailing, and the minor redistricting is enough that he might have lost in 2022 with the new lines, which moved some rural residents to the easily Republican District 21 that has Elise Stefanik. In my first Senate elections (regular and special) in Nebraska, I never expected to have a close election. What surprised me is that Republican Deb Fischer and Independent Dan Osborn both led their internal polls, but the polls agreed about Trump winning by 20 percent, meaning that Osborn's poll had more ticket-splitting. The ballot measures include the possibility of Nebraska being the first state to have voters restrict abortion since Dobbs overturned Roe v. Wade.
A new Emerson College survey of Maryland likely voters finds 54% support Angela Alsobrooks(D), while 40% support Larry Hogan (R) in the U.S. Senate election. Good bye Larry Hogan! I hardly knew you … #MarylandStrong
I saw a couple of polls this week on two Long Island districts. In NY-1, John Avlon was only down 3 to Republican incumbent, Nick Lalota. And in NY-3, the Dem challenger, Laura Gillen, was up like 12 points over the incumbent, D'Esposito