This is a Rasmussen poll. Expect it to be skewed R+3 in tight races. Which means Rollins looks quite good.
And she's losing the sign wars here on the Eastern Shore. After weeks of asking, she finally sent yard signs to the Shore. It doesn't matter, I'm in the red pocket of Maryland where Hogan is popular, even with the MAGAts.
Indeed the Eastern Shore is Maga country but I am not impressed with her campaign overall. At least the last 2 polls are giving her 5 pts lead. Are you helping the campaign?
No, I've become a voting judge, you know, just to become part of a legit polling operation. I'm training up so by the next general election I should be able to be a chief judge, which is really the only level at which malfeasance could occur. As such, I am going to be non-partisan for the next six years.
I'm sure they do in that armpit area. Years ago, I dated a woman at university who grew up in that area who was applying for a job with the CIA. During the background check, some of the agents were greeted at that door with guns. Historically, I would be surprised if Maryland went Republican.
I am watching https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm where Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) is speaking about gambling on control of the Senate and House, and that it is a threat to elections. I do not know how to spell the gambling company he said, so I did not type it. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) told the company that they could not have the betting they wanted. The company went to federal district court and won. The CFTC appealed to federal circuit court, which put a stay on the ruling, and said they will decide in three days. The district judge ruled that a person or company can bet up to $100,000,000. Merkley's concern is that rich people and companies could bet on which party wins control, and then donate millions to the races that are most likely to decide control.
Yeah but you would see engagement on a whole nother level. People will research policies to see if it's a winner. Debates will matter. I am for it.
Alsobrooks is putting some space between her and Hogan.... A new Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill poll finds 49% of Maryland likely voters support Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (D), while 42% support former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) for the open U.S. Senate seat. @Val1, how is it by you? I have seen some signs for her in MoCo as well as ads on tv and heard on radio as well.
I want to see her on who do you think you are. The origin of that last name has been killing me. Hogan is proof how people love their governors but don't usually want them for president or on the national stage.
It's getting a little better. We finally got Alsobrooks and Harris signs, but they're still being rationed. Just yesterday we got a glossy 5×11.5 postcard from her. Her ads have popped up for me on the SI site I write for, but then, so are Hogan's. Nobody locally that I know of is working the race for her, though we get ignored in Senatorial races as a matter of course. With the exception of Salisbury (Wicomico County) all the Dem clubs are largely white. And female, for that matter. Hogan is popular on the Shore. So it might not be worth the effort this go-round.
I'm getting a bit nervous about the Washington governor race. I have yet to see a single sign for the Democrat (AG Bob Ferguson, I presume - that's how bad it is, there has literally been no publicity I am aware of). I've seen numerous ones for Dave Reichert, whose name is quite well known out here as he was involved in the Green River killer case and was a long time former US representative.
"What's your surname? "Brooks, sir." "And yours?" "Also Brooks." "Thank you, Mr. Alsobrooks." I cannot imagine that name coming up any other way. Just some lazy, disinterested bureaucrat filling out a form too literally.
I think you are right to worry. It looks to be in tossup territory. Latest poll I could find of 400+ LV has Ferguson at 50 to Reichert 39, but with ±5% error, and 9% undecided. I’d guess they mostly break for Reichert, so it could be VERY close. And if Ferguson has no ground game, that could narrow. Another poll at the end of August had it 48/45, with 500 LV and ±4.36%
Quite well known, but his hardcore Conservative voting record as a Representative is going to hurt him in WA.. It may also be meaningful that I haven't seen a single Reichert ad on Seattle TV, while pro-Fergeson SuperPACs are flooding the ad blocks with ads attacking Reichert's voting record and even some emails where he praises Trump. While it is kind of understandable that Reichert would spend a lot of money in Seattle, Seattle stations also broadcast into less liberal areas of King County and most of Western Washington outside of Thurston County and south.
I guess my problem is I don't watch local stations at all. I would just think I would see more Ferguson signs in Olympia. Hell, I've even seen a Semi Bird sign in my neighborhood but no Bob Ferguson signs.
Do political yard signs actually do anything? Short answer: Political yard signs can have a very slight impact in a race in which the candidates lack name recognition, although political party is still by far the most important factor. Otherwise they have no measurable impact except to discern which of your neighbors is a dumbshit.
Could it be that Harris is sucking up all the Democrat donations money and down ballot Dems are struggling for funding? Or just your regular Dems incompetentcy?
Well.. The last time Washington elected a Republican Governor was 43 years ago. The only time Republicans were close since then was in 2004 when the Republican was actually ahead by 261 after the initial results, but ultimately ended up losing by 129 votes after 5 counties found almost 1,000 ballots during the manual recount and recanvassing. So... Democrats are quite used to winning and probably more than a little complacent.
Ferguson is doubling up Reichert in fundraising, and Alsobrooks was about 60% higher than Hogan as of June 30. So it's not a funding thing.
So, I listened to that podcast since I study signs a lot. (Man, that host was really channeling his inner Ira Glass, wasn't he? Same pitch, same pacing. Do all small podcast guys really so ape Glass?) So, in Kam's experiments, a fictional character got a 10% bump in voter selection just on the presence of signage. Seems pretty significant to me. Now, I had always heard that signs only had a 2 - 3% effect on voting choiced, which in a election within the margin of error, still seems significant. The problem is that signage is expensive and campaigns are usually told that you would do much better with paying canvassers $20/hour to knock on doors vis a vis the costs of signs. But I've found it's hard to get good canvassers. Every campaign that I have worked on but one had money sitting in the canvasser budget at the end for want of canvassers. I think signs are better understood as evidence of a good ground campaign. There are people to put out signs when someone calls in. And you know those big signs? In a rural area like this, a team of two might only get 4 planted in a day. It's a lot of work to put those up and to coordinate which means you've got a vast pool of volunteers supporting your campaign. The apocryphal story that I heard, from a guy who was more involved than I ever was, is that you know how some folks will stand by a street or busy intersection with a sign and just wave? It seems to be dying out, but it was a thing for a while. The story goes that some guy running for something in the mid 90s in Hawaii did no campaigning, had no budget, no website, no previous history. All he did was stand by some busy road for four hours a day at rush hours, holding his signa and waving. He won in a landslide. Everybody started doing it for a while. It's tapered off because I've heard from both sides of the aisle that folks who do that get stuff thrown at them. It's just too dangerous. I've long since lost touch with Joe and I can't find anything with the google machine, so I can't verify, except to note that Joe had his principals standing on street corners. And his guys usually won.
🚨New @InsideElections/@NoblePredictive House battleground poll, in MT-01:Zinke (R-inc) 47Tranel (D) 43Hayes (L) 3MT-SenTester (D-inc) 45Sheehy (R) 44Daoud (L) 3Barb (G) 1PresTrump 49Harris 43Oliver 2Stein 1432 LVs, 9/11-14, ±4.7%https://t.co/Da6MHidns6— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) September 19, 2024 Tester only up by 1 in Montana's 1st congressional district. He won this area by 10 in 2018. The other Montana district is R+16.