You say this, but Montana’s governor choke slammed a reporter during his first House run and he won. In fact, when he ran for Governor, his campaign treated the choke slam as a positive as he stood to the liberal media elite.
A couple of things about that. The first is that it happened the night before Election Day, so a lot of voters never heard about it before casting their ballots. The second is that the victim was a national reporter, not a Montanan. I think the salient aspect of the Sheehy statement is not so much that white voters will be affected but that NA voters could be galvanized by the slurs.
That’s certainly fair. But also doesn’t explain why he was able to use it as a point if pride in his governor’s campaign. How big of Montana’s voting population is NDN? While the race is close-ish, Sheehy’s a rich carpetbagger vs a native Montanan. The fact that Sheehy’s even ahead in this race should indicate the relative immunity he has to such things.
Well, the only firm of some stature that has polled the race lately is Emerson, who had Sheehy up by 2% about a month ago. Given Emerson’s slight GOP lean it’s reasonable to assume the race is more or less tied. The NA population of Montana is about 7%, or 80,000 people. So even an NA turnout increase 10% or 15% could make a difference in such a tight race.
As @Hayaka pointed, he insulted a local population and community, that can’t help. Beyond that, the Tester campaign has committed a lot of effort and money to mobilize the N-A voters. That can only help. Apparently, there are more damaging stories about to come out on Sheehy as well.
A new Gonzales Research poll in Maryland finds Angela Alsobrooks (D) has pulled ahead of Larry Hogan (R) in Maryland’s competitive Senate race, 46% to 41%. “The new poll shows Hogan’s challenge in winning over enough voters during the next two months. While 50% of those surveyed said they hold a favorable opinion of him, only 41% said they would vote for him
Montana polling. Not good, but I find it hard to believe that Tester is polling the same as Harris. I would expect he will get at least 5% more. New MONTANA poll from FabrizioWard (R)/Binder Research (D) for the AARP:SenateTester (D-inc) 45Sheehy (R) 51Tester 41Sheehy 49Daoud (L) 4Downey (G) 1PresTrump 56Harris 41Fav/unfavTester 43/52Sheehy 48/45600 LVs, 8/25-29, mixed modehttps://t.co/YMq9NABJ2U— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) September 5, 2024
Democrats need to start spending more money in Texas and Florida if they want to keep the Senate Sabato Crystal Ball moves Montana Senate from Tossup to Lean RFolks are gonna need to start sending paying attention and sending money to @DebbieforFL to save the Senate majority— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) September 6, 2024
Fabrizio is the Trump campaign’s official pollster. I would expect at least a 5 point Sheehy lead from Fabrizio in Montana.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4864310-boebert-pact-act-vote/amp/ Couple gems: ..."Boebert (R-Colo.) defended her vote against bipartisan legislation that expanded health benefits for veterans, saying Tuesday she didn’t want to spend “$600 billion forever.” But also: Boebert responded, saying, “When it comes to our veterans. I have absolutely put them first. In my first year, we were in the minority, and unfortunately not all the legislation was great.” The Republican said she voted against some massive omnibus bills that might have supported veterans, because “I’m not voting for something that we have 22 hours to read that’s over 2,000 pages long." So, piece of shyte GOPer doesn't want to spend on those who serve this nation, and also lies about it, while not voting for things she has to read. That suns up one reason (out of several) why I vote against the GOP.
New CBS News/YouGov polls of key U.S. Senate races among likely voters: Michigan: Slotkin (D) 48%, Rogers (R) 41% Pennsylvania: Casey (D) 48%, McCormick (R) 41% Wisconsin: Baldwin (D) 51%, Hovde (R) 43%
I want to see Florida polling let’s say 4 days after the debate. There’s a very large Haitian population there. Give Team Harris a couple of days to press the point and see if Florida moves toward the Dems.
As Hung Cao campaigns with Rick Scott in Virginia today, he's handing out these spectacular pins: Sen. Rick Scott is hanging out with Va. GOP Senate nominee Hung Cao today. Polls show Ds looking pretty strong thereCao says polls showing Harris up in Virginia are off, calls it a toss up state and says Northern Virginia is going to surprise people. And he’s handing out these pic.twitter.com/p2CJhT5B2N— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) September 11, 2024
I didn't know that the modern Republican party could engage in humor that didn't involve denigrating people they see as lesser.
I do not know what Hung Cao is smoking, but it must be some strong shit. There is no surprise coming from Northern Va. As usual since the last 20 years, it will overwhelmingly vote Blue and erase any small lead coming from the rural part of the Commonwealth.
To our Maryland folks: Should we be worried that Joe Manchin has endorsed Larry Hogan? I think somebody on here said that Alsobrooks has been running a rather uninspiring campaign. it would be nuts if we hold Montana and lose the Senate due to Maryland!
#New Congress Polls #NY-19🔵 Riley 42% (+3)🔴 Molinaro (Inc) 39%#CA-41🔵 Rollins 41% (+6)🔴 Calvert (Inc) 35%#IA-03🔵 Baccam 42% (+3)🔴 Nunn (Inc) 39%RMG #C - 450 LV (Each) - 9/12— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 13, 2024
I didn't know Manchin endorsed Hogan. Having said that, folks could not care less about Manchin here. He is a non entity. Alsobrooks will win. The Harris coattails will be be strong enough to carry her across the finish line but it will be in the single digits. She is running a rather uninspiring campaign though. I have received, as a registered D, 2 mailers from the Hogan campaign and nothing from her.