Hogan is taking some heat from his right flank.... Commentary: Republicans Owe No Loyalty To Larry Hogan "Democrats are furiously attacking former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in the U.S. Senate race over his obvious flip-flop on abortion. But Hogan has not just a problem with Democrats who don’t believe he is pro-choice and the moderate he pretends to be. The supposedly popular ex-governor has a real problem with the Republican base. They gave 28% of their votes to perennial candidate Robin Ficker, the gadfly who has lost elections for every conceivable post over the last 40 years. Maryland conservatives have classified Hogan as a RINO (Republican in Name Only) for many years, but Hogan shrugs off the criticism, pointing to his cross-party appeal in deep blue Maryland. I would submit that Larry Hogan is the luckiest politician in Maryland politics today. He has been able to ride the misfortune of the Democrats across Maryland and make himself look more like a moderate than a conservative." " As a Republican nominee for delegate in Legislative District 15 in Montgomery County in 2018, I directly asked the Hogan campaign for an endorsement. I was told that under no uncertain terms would Hogan endorse a Republican in Montgomery County – because he did not want to lose any of the Democrats in MoCo that were going to vote for him. The endorsement of a Republican for the legislature might dilute some Dem votes. I was told I would not win, and Hogan did not want to be seen endorsing Republican candidates in MoCo. Never a true Republican Larry Hogan left office with the state Republican Party in complete disarray. He has never been a true Republican, not even to those who loyally followed his policies and programs through his eight years as governor. He now claims that he always supported the “Right to Choose” on the issue of abortion, and we should not be shocked by his latest pronouncement. What we know for sure is that Larry Hogan having won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate has just shown his “true blue” color to the Republican voters of Maryland. RINO does not do him justice. Flip-flopper, political opportunist, and overall, a disappointment to conservatives. Those are better descriptions of Larry Hogan and his campaign." https://www.citybiz.co/article/559787/commentary-republicans-owe-no-loyalty-to-larry-hogan/
Of course Marc King in another opinion piece is complaining about the press referring to Jan 6 as an insurrection and about Montgomery County proposing vaccine passports during the pandemic. Another MD nut Republican.
Governor race, this is not good. #NEW @CookPolitical rating change:#NCGov: Lean D to Tossup— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2024 2024 North Carolina Governor GE:Josh Stein (D) 37%Mark Robinson (R) 37%Undecided 17%BSG/GS Strategy Group/@CookPolitical, 601 LV, 5/6-13 https://t.co/IjIvBPsp0T— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2024
Here is good news from Wisconsin. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin is the only Democrat, and Eric Hovde is most likely to win the Republican primary. Thomas Leager is running as an Independent. He was executive director at Wisconsin Gun Owners, so he will take votes away from a Republican.
If Baldwin does not win, that will be among the greatest shocks of recent electoral memory. She may not win by 10+ points, but she wins convincingly every time.
Since Senate candidates in swing states usually poll better than Biden, if Baldwin loses that means the Presidential election is a blowout in favor of Trump.
Fvck, even the house may be out of reach for Democrats, Trump could get the trifecta. Our model predicts that Republicans have a 64% chance of retaining control of the US House. The GOP is currently favored in 212 congressional districts to Democrats’ 206, with 17 races rated as “Toss-Up”.Check out our full 2024 forecast here: https://t.co/ao9DtZCWNJ— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 29, 2024 Decision Desk HQ 2024 Forecast - Joint Outcome ProbabilitiesGOP Trifecta: 51%Split Outcomes: 33%Dem Trifecta: 16%https://t.co/QJZskjwXfD— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 29, 2024
If you don't already have your exit strategy sorted, then now is a good time to get it in place just in case.
There are some things worth considering. Tester in Montana, for example. And there are some things not worth considering. Baldwin in Wisconsin, for example.
The Senate/split in battleground States has not changed much. As we talked about before, there won't be that much of ticket splitting, so that should be good news for Biden or bad news for Democratic Senators. NEW- Cook Political swing state polls Arizona: 🟥 Trump +1 Nevada: 🟥 Trump +9Michigan: 🟥 Trump +2Pennsylvania: 🟥 Trump +3Wisconsin: 🟨 TIED Arizona: 🟦 Gallego +5Nevada: 🟦 Rosen +7Michigan: 🟦 Slotkin +2Pennsylvania: 🟦 Casey +8Wisconsin: 🟦 Baldwin +12— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) May 30, 2024
I have seen that in some of the polls I have looked at - it's not across the board, but it was apparent in some. I've commented on that before with links. edit: I just pulled up this article from the Cook people that mentions 3rd party is pulling from Biden more than Trump.
Larry Hogan is being crucified for simply calling amer4cans to respect the verdict. That will not help him with the crazy MAGA base in Maryland either. But Davis is far from alone among prominent Trump allies in attacking Hogan, simply for urging calm. Senior Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita replied, "You just ended your campaign," while far-right activist and Trump ally Laura Loomer wrote, "Go to hell. Your campaign for Senate is OFFICIALLY OVER!" https://www.rawstory.com/trump-maga-larry-hogan-respect/
I’m not a fan of Hogan but he’s not an idiot. He knows that the biggest danger to his campaign is the extent that Alsobrooks ties him to Trump. This statement whether he believes it or not puts some distance between them.
True that but he will still need the crazy maga base in Md who voted a nut job called Robin Fickler (30% of the GOP vote). He can't win if the GOP base is not with him at 90+ %. That will not help him make peace with them by any means.
When he left office I think polls showed him being more popular among Democrats than Republicans in MD. He knows where the votes are. What are the MAGAs (who are relatively few in MD) going to do? They can only undervote or not show up at all on Election Day.
As of May 28 there have been 515 anti-LGBT+ bills in the US this year - how many of those do you think were put forth by Democrats?
Of course they can and will likely not vote for Hogan as well (they call him a RINO). It is not that Hogan is going to win with a strong % of dems voting for him.In a state where Dems outnumber republicans voters by 3 to 1, he will need as many GOP voters and possibly. I do not know about polls showing more popular with Dems Tham republicans to be honest. In any case, it is a different ball game now.
Who was the first President to endorse gay marriage before being elected? Who was the first President to have an openly gay cabinet member? Actions.... not bills that won't ever pass for pandering politicians.
They are not going to vote for Alsobrooks. You are over estimating the relavance of MAGAs in a MD general election. Republicans are somewhere around 30% of the electorate and if you take 30% of that being MAGA you’re speaking of 9% of the total electorate.
In case you haven't looked, many of those bills are passing in Republican states. But you're right, actions are important. One party takes action to support LGBT+ people, the other party takes actions to oppress us. There is no legitimate debate on this.
One party exploits people for political purposes. Like I said, Kool-Aid. You don't hold Obama accountable for saying marriage is between a man and a woman but changing his tune after he was elected for the second time. Actions!
The important thing is Obama did change his mind on that, partly at the encouragement of Biden. Look at all the Republicans who still haven't changed their minds. You also have people like Alito laying the foundation for taking marriage away. Republicans are actively working to take away LGBT+ rights. Democrats defend LGBT+ rights, while Republicans are working to actively take LGBT+ rights away. There have been 515 anti-LGBT+ bills so far this year - those are 515 reasons to believe Republicans are anti-LGBT+. And speaking of exploiting for political purposes, you mentioned Trump appointing a LGBT+ cabinet member. You'll also remember that he was only an acting cabinet member for 3 months and never confirmed. He was acting until someone else was confirmed by the Republican Senate. If anything, his token appointment was very much an example of "one party exploiting people for political purposes" (see Ben Carson for another example). And do I need to highlight the homophobic comments of Republicans toward Pete Buttigieg, the first openly gay cabinet member to ever be confirmed by the Senate?