Pre-match: 2024 Friendlies v Panama {Oct 12th} & Mexico {Oct 15th} (Poch's 1st Window)

If we've slipped behind Canada in the CONCACAF rankings, which are weirdly different than the FIFA rankings, I think, then we will face the worse of the two group winners as the #3 seed.

 

A number of people are posting their own depth charts in this thread, but I figured I'd do something slightly different and just post what basically has been the actual depth chart for the USMNT for the past year.

Here is every player who has started at least 2 USMNT game over the past 12 months [plus McKenzie and Fossey because they started our last game. and Horvath because he's been the clear #2 GK for most of the past 12 months even if he didn't play much].

GK: Turner - 13 starts
GK: Schulte - 2 starts
GK: Horvath - 1 start (+1 full half)

RB: Dest - 7 starts [currently injured, long term]
RB: Scally - 8 starts [+1 full half]
RB: Fossey - 1 start, but started our last game

CB: Richards - 13 starts
CB: Ream - 11 starts [will be 37 next camp]
CB: M. Robinson - 4 starts
CB: Carter-Vickers - 2 starts (+1 full half)
CB: McKenzie - 1 start, but started our last game

LB: A. Robinson - 10 starts
LB: Lund - 4 starts

DM: Adams - 4 starts [currently injured, mid term]
DM: Cardoso - 3 starts [+2 full halves]
DM: A. Morris - 2 starts

CM: McKennie - 11 starts
CM/DM: Musah - 11 starts [+1 full half]
CM: de la Torre - 2 starts [+1 full half]

AM/WF: Reyna - 10 starts [+1 full half] [currently injured, short term]
AM/WF: M. Tillman - 4 starts
AM/WF: B. Aaronson - 3 starts (+2 full halves)

WF: Pulisic - 12 starts
WF: Weah - 10 starts
WF/CF: Wright - 2 starts (+ 1 full half)

CF: Balogun - 13 starts
CF: Pepi - 3 starts (+ 4 full halves)

That's 24-27 players, though 3 are currently injured, and there will probably be other injuries by the time the next camp rolls around. The thing I'm watching for right now will be how much our next roster deviates from that list above.

 

I don't expect Poch's first camp to be that different from recent ones. From a pure talent perspective, the guys called in are basically the guys, although cases can be made for others.

But I think he's going to want to see everyone in person, and give everyone a chance to play how he wants them to play. I don't expect a assumptions about work rate or even playing time at club to exclude many people, except maybe at keeper.

 

I would not be surprised if we came out playing very differently and I'll be more surprised if he doesn't tear up the gameplan than if he does. I'm less convinced we won't see mostly the same faces on the roster, but I do think there could be a decent number of changes, especially if we end up with a few guys out injured again. We'll probably be at least without Reyna and Adams so midfield spots will be there to be taken. Dest won't be back yet. The situation in Goal is dire. Once you get past the top few players we have actually succeeding and playing a decent role on a club in a top league, you're picking between a large number of guys who are much more alike than different. We're not a country with 40 guys out there all getting game time in top leagues to pick from so I think we're not as likely to see big changes to the top half of the player pool as a country with a larger pool of high quality players to pick from. The first dozen or so names are going to be the same no matter who's in charge. But yeah, I am curious who he gives chances to because at the next step down the player pool gets a lot bigger.

You look at the roster for the most recent window which many people were completely happy with and once a few injuries start hitting we're calling up a pretty significant number of guys who are playing in the second tier in England, a guy from the second division in Italy, a guy from Mexico, a youth player, and several playing for lesser leagues. Once you get that far down the list, the number of players we have to pick from at those levels is actually pretty long and if you start including MLS players, which once you're that low I see no reason not to, there are a lot of guys who could get a chance. But, I have no idea what Poch will think. He may want to sort through the guys currently involved before branching out just to see what he's working with. Or, he may be watching a ton of tape and seeing a few guys he really thinks should be included or guys he has no use for. Looking forward to seeing what happens.

 

That's what I'd bet too. Especially for the first camp, I doubt he leaves off guys who are at a higher club level in favor of "try hard" MLSers. But given what Pochettino has said about "competing" rather than "playing" for your national team, I wouldn't be surprised if he leaves guys with better pedigrees off future rosters if he doesn't like what he sees from them in-person.

 

By the way, compiling that list above made it clear to me just how set in stone our A and B teams have been this cycle. During Berhalter's 2nd spell, there was a very fixed A team consisting of roughly 11 players who all started a double digit number of games over a 12 month period, and a very fixed B team, consisting of roughly 11 players who started 2-4 games each over that same period. The quasi-exception is at RB, which likely would have followed that same pattern were it not for Dest's long term injury that forced Scally into the lineup and helped him rack up a roughly equal number of starts compared to Dest.

There might have been some more B team competition at a few of those positions (LB, midfield, and GK come to mind) were it not for the Olympics and the U-23 camps leading up to that, which pulled some of our depth options away at time. There also probably would have been a bit more of a logjam and competition for a place in the first XI, particularly in the midfield, had Adams been healthy the entire time.

Anyway, I'm not sure whether that's really all that unusual compared to past USMNT teams or other international sides, but if fans want players to fight for their positions, that sort of breakdown in the numbers between A and B teams and everyone else in the pool might be less than ideal.

 

It seems mind boggling to me that a 3-time returning Champion Team would be ranked below a team that didn't even make the semi finals last time. That would be way too much weight on Copa. I actually think Panama deserves a higher seed than Canada. They made the last semis and won the last Gold Cup.

 

What you're saying is that Berhalter got really lazy or prejudicial, unlike the previous cycle in which he attempted to cultivate new players, even if sometimes the process lacked clarity.

At least he tried. And that process yielded the likes of Zimmerman, Miles, Pepi, Turner, etc. The new boss needs to bring a couple of those guys back, after underwhelming performances by the alternatives. Then develop his own sub-group of fresh blood, hopefully which is richer than last time so we don't eventually pass out earlier than need be.

I agree with those who think we'll see a similar roster as last time, w/ only a few changes or less. But that's not validation of Gregg's process. It'd just show how unimaginative he'd become, and the new guy's going to be the same in the interim at least cuz he's an outsider learning on the job.

 

I can't imagine Pochettino won't at least try what he likes to do before abandoning it for something else, if he ever does.

4231 with attacking fullbacks generally providing the width. Winger tend to tuck in and be FWs/MF. The CF, wingers and CAM interchange a lot and try to overload the center. Build out of the back consistently, pulling back midfielders and even the wingers to outnumber the opponent as you build out. Counterpress like hell when you get the ball. Lots and lots of running.

Similarities:

• 4 ATB
• 3 Man midfield
• Single striker
• Build out of the back
• Attacking Fullbacks
• Pulisic likely in a similar role
• Strong focus on positional play
• Often falls back into midblock 442 on defense

Differences:

• Counterpress on defense, employing a high line
  
• Both wingers play inside
• Very active CAM who both assists midfield and attacks
• More attacks through central overloads
• More aggressive in general, more risk taking on offense

I don't think he'll want to ditch that without at least seeing the players. And given it's not super far off from what we've done before ... I think maybe we 4231 with both wingers coming in, both fullbacks pushing up, try the counterpress and some basic positioning instructions. But you're going to only have a couple of days.

With so many injuries, I do think we could see some player surprises, but that's more because we're looking at backups in some places, I think.

Big questions for me:

• If we're counterpressing and have a higher line (please), who are the CBs?
• Who is the favorite for RW -- and I think we won't actually be sure because of all the injuries

 

It is. Costa Rica is ranked higher than Jamaica or Honduras, so it's unlikely we face them as they will get the #4 team (Panama) if they win their group. If they finish second, though, we probably face them. Seems like they should win their group, though.

If Nicaragua actually holds off Honduras, and Guatemala stays in second (so like the above), it's likely:

Mexico v Nicaragua
Canada v Guatemala
US v Jamaica
Panama v Costa Rica

But the last time CONCACAF updated their ratings was July 31st ... so I don't know what the real numbers are. The last FIFA rankings were mid-July, and we were actually still the Top dog in CONCACAF so I don't really understand the differences well here.

If we somehow stay ahead of Canada, that could be a massive difference. If we didn't -- and that seems likely given the actual results -- then it's really like to be Jamaica.

 

The CONCACAF ranking is an unblinking, unthinking algorithm.
CONCACAF Launches New Ranking Index

Its so complex and opaque that its almost impossible to figure out how any recent results will change the ranking. Good or bad is all we can say with certainty. To me, obviously, our recent results don't help. But its impossible for anybody to read this and figure out whether Canada will jump over us or not.

The friendly result won't hurt us too horrifically because its "Match Importance" multiplier won't be too high. And also the "expected result" factor isn't horrific since they're right next to us in the ranking. It wouldn't be like losing to T&T in the Nations League. That crushed us.

 

This is the piece I'm most curious to see for a couple reasons. One, I think we have more "wings" who like to drop in than who run the sideline so it seems like a good fit. But also, we've struggled with sharing those spaces whenever we've gone in that direction. If he can figure out how to get the spacing sorted out, I think this could be very productive and open up a lot of options. It would also push the striker higher.

Weah will be interesting to watch. He's kept his spot at least partly because of having few other options that provide width on the right, but if Poch prefers someone to pull more to the middle, he's much less ideal for that.

I also think not wanting everything to go wide is a pretty big change from what we have seen if he keeps his preference for running some of the attack centrally. For a while now, the center of the field has been where attacks go to die for the US with even Reyna pulled deep in the Copa.

 

Friendlies should be called something different if they have an effect on conference rankings. I thought they were meaningless from that perspective. It demonstrates the importance of winning every game you suit up for.

 

That may be our saving grace.

 

The unblinking algorithm also doesn't care that we sent our B team to the Gold Cup in 2023.

Its also one of these formulas which uses all results since 1990. The older the result the less weight it carries. Last four years carries the most weight. So now our bad results at the end of the 2018 cycle are starting to carry less weight. Our good results from three Nations League triumphs as well as the 2021 Gold Cup are still in the meaty part of the equation.

So............who the hell knows? It's gonna be close.

 

I think this is where the detailed specifics are really important. You can find a decent amount of praise out there for Poch with players saying that his coaching on positioning, body shape, etc., really made a material difference in how players felt they saw the game and performed.

We obviously won't have the across the board talent that he's had for the last decade there and it's not as simple as that being offset by worse defensive players -- you still need to be able to quickly execute a lot of very accurate short passes in a row and we've struggled with that at times.

And of course, how much can Poch teach in a short time period will be the other question.

There will be a push-pull on this spot because of his defensive and running preferences. Tillman or Reyna there probably fits his offense the best, but neither is a bulldog on the counterpress and that's a VERY important position for that. Weah defends, runs and he's not completely incompetent on the ball, so he may still be in pole position.

I also think this is one of the places we could see wildcards. Weah at RB and Dest at RW? McKennie at RW. I could see both of them based on how Poch plays.

It is, though going central has always been enabled by the fullback being enough of a threat to serve as field stretchers. I think we continue to face the challenge that if our wide play presents little threat, it won't pull any defenders outside. And if that happens, we're still very clogged and you can't tactic your way through that.

I think Poch will be a quick antidote to the two biggest offensive complaints -- not going through the middle and more aggressive counterattacking. He's also likely to address my personal biggest complaint, which is the lack of aggressive defense as well as a lack of numerical overloads, which really should be in the toolbox.

What I doubt he addresses is the execution in the final third. I think he'll help, but execution is mostly on the player.

 

We dont have enough good players to do that

 

Oct window is the one to try out guys whom Poch's team wants to see in person because there isn't a lot of tape on them or maybe no tape at all. Nov and March and June windows all count in NL terms. There's a fair amount of cb's in MLS who are as good as Trusty, McKenzie and some of the other cb's we've seen. I have no idea how they sort that out. I'm still waiting to see if Poch is going to be a badge team guy. On balance I find him to be the kind of guy who likes to think of his coaching team as "better than that" but we'll see.

 

Top 12-15 stay. If we even have that number. The next 15-20 might be different. I hope Poch is able to go beyond of magical number of 26.

 

I think for now it’s probably Richards and Robinson or Richards and McKenzie.

As for right wing, Pulisic with Kolesheo on the left? We could also see experimenting with Reyna or Tillman there to try and get both on the field.

 

Personally I think it's time for Ream to start staying home and Poch as a CB himself starts working with others.

 

Play hard, run or we won't call you up again. If you can't run and play hard for a new coach like Poch then you don't care enough.

 

Omg please retire from posting.

 

Jalen Neal?