2023 NWSL Game Talk

I've been hosting my parents all weekend and didn't get to watch the bad guys get their second straight CC title. Anyone else here watch and have thoughts on the game?

 

I am of course Japanese-biased, but I think Narumi Miura and especially 19 yo Manaka Matsukubo were outstaning: did you check her volley-goal?

 

Back and forth through the first 10min of LOU-HOU; no goals yet though

 

Just heard on the broadcast that she's in the final stages of getting her official USSF Pro coaching license; guessing a lack of proper training and certification is the main reason she didn't get the official head coach gig after her last interim stint.

 

The GM said she is looking for head coaching experience in this current search, which implied that Lowden will not get it this time either. I assume because the GM was not happy with Sam Laity's tenure as a first time head coach.

 

I wasn't able to watch, but seems like it was a comprehensive match from Gotham over the Spirit - double the shots, double the SoGs, double the corners - but the scoreboard just shows an impressive 6min brave from WC winner Gonzalez

 

#NWSLAfterDark strikes early as KC goes up over SD in the first 5min with a rocket from Debinha (who else?) And of course, I was late to the stream...

 

KC playing like we expected based on their off-season as Hamilton makes it 2-0 over SD. KC definitely able to play spoiler, and I'm wondering about them maybe even sneaking into the playoffs at this point...

 

Shaw puts a lobbed bouncing ball past Franch, but Morgan was offside in Franch's area affecting her ability to respond.

 

More #NWSLAfterDark as we get multiple VAR checks in the past 10min in SD-KC; latest active check seems likely to award a handball-induced PK to SD... =EDIT= it's actually a corner kick SD not getting any calls so far tonight /EDIT

Also POR-RGN has begun, but hard to look away from the SD-KC game right now

 

LA let CHI catch up twice and ORL upset NC - with three games left in the regular season, there are only 7pts between 4th (NC) and 12th (CHI). I'll have to look at the remaining schedule to see just how crashes the standings can get out how much they can still spread out

 

That was a baffling VAR call, even watching live I figured it had to be a handball, considering how the balls trajectory changed so much. And I figured the view from the camera behind the goal would be good enough evidence of the handball.

I guess this decision could be the result of the small number of cameras at the game, as the Paramount+ feed only showed four views of the incident.

 

With only 3 games left in the season and an incredibly tight table, I'm really wondering about clinching/elimination scenarios... Like, do the intricacies of the remaining schedule mean POR has already clinched? No one has announced it, even with as big as the POR fanbase is, so I doubt they have, but it's not obvious... I want to run numbers on all teams at some point soon, but I'll take a stab at POR first since they're on top and should have the easiest means of clinching if they haven't already.

First, look at the contrapositive: if they lose out, can they still be eliminated? To make this scenario, we need as many teams above them as possible (since POR has the best GD in the league, I'm hoping to simplify and say teams have to directly pass them and not rely on tiebreaks, but we'll see). So let's try building this...
1. POR loses out to SD, NJ, and LA. That leaves the table as SD33-NJ33-POR32-NC28-LA28-RGN27-DC26-ORL25-LOU24-HOU23-KC22-CHI21
2. Since SD and NJ are already above POR, and since neither KC nor CHI can catch up at all, we'll have those four teams lose out their remaining matches (and ignore any H2H between those four). That gives wins to LOUx2, NC, HOU, DC, and RGN, making the table SD33-NJ33-POR32-NC31-RGN30-LOU30-DC29-LA28-HOU26-ORL25-KC22-CHI21
3. At this point, 11 of the last 18 games have been accounted for, with POR still in 3rd. The remaining 7 games are split between 7 teams, so not a lot of opportunity for four different teams to pass POR... But the full game list is HOU/LA, LA/ORL, LOU/ORL, ORL/HOU, RGN/NC, RGN/DC, DC/NC, which is clearly two "pods" of teams, which greatly simplifies things.
4. It's easy enough to get two of the RGN/NC/DC pod outright above POR in this scenario, and allowing tiebreaks could even see all three equal or pass 32pts.
5. It's similarly easy to get two of the HOU/LA/LOU/ORL pod at or above 32pts as well, so it is entirely possible for POR to be eliminated if they lose out from here.
6. THAT SAID, the closeness within each of the suggest "pods" there means that just one more point for POR makes playoffs a near lock, and I'm pretty sure 2pts is their Magic Number. Which... for all of this theorizing, is pretty easy to read off the table since the current 7th&8th place teams both have a max possible of 34pts, implying a Magic Number of 3pts. So the intricacies of the schedule don't matter that much...
7. The schedule plays a tiny bit more impact on elimination since the group of teams currently 7th through 10th have those four games between each other, meaning at least two of them will get at least 27pts when all is said and done... And at least two of the RGN/NC/DC pod will be above 27pts outright. As such, I think 27pts is the cutoff for playoffs, maybe 28pts, meaning CHI's Tragic Number is just 2pts (i.e. they have to win out) unlike the 5pts you'd get from just reading the table as it stands.

 

International break is over, and we're back to games this weekend. Lots of interesting "6pt" matches this weekend: 1v2, 4v5, and 7v8. I'll be cheering for HOU, LOU, WAS, and SD, hoping the other two end as draws

 

DC-KC end-to-end in the first ten minutes. Calmed down after that, with KC generally getting more of okay, though DC still getting opportunities on the break with several great shots. Then Staab shoves Cooper in the penalty box and Debinha coverts to put KC up by one. Not the result I want at all, but it is definitely adding to standings chaos...

 

I missed Sarr's equalizer, but Rodman... Stoppage time, pure speed carry, incredible shot low at the gear post for the 2-1 lead. Great win

 

Switching over to CHI-LOU now. Hosts lead 1-0 at halftime, keeping their razor-thin playoff hopes alive with 225min left

 

Massive ref decision in CHI-LOU:
DeMelo gets taken down in the penalty box in what seems like a 51-49 chance off a rebound; initially given a PK, but a lengthy VAR check ultimately takes that back, apparently based on how code the challenge was. As announcers and other people on Twitter have said, that would've been an easy free kick to LOU if it didn't happen in the box. Apparently this is the second VAR check in CHI's favor tonight.

 

Ref is losing track of this game; just issues a ridiculous yellow card to Matthews, and then another free kick to LOU moments later

 

Great game brewing in POR as SD nearly doubles their lead but the shot from distance by Colaprico dings the crossbar and glances over

 

I did not see the game but I ran across this:

As pool reporter for Racing, I asked why specifically the penalty was overturned.

The response I received from the officials was: ‘the defender played the ball prior to contact with the opponent.’#CHIvLOU #NWSL #RacingLou

— Bekki Morgan (@bekki_morgan) October 1, 2023

 

Absolutely mental game in Jersey tonight! Home team led 21(7)-7(3) in shots, 15-0 in corner, 69-31 in possession.... and absolutely could not buy a goal to save their lives. Multiple great chances shot wide, several pinball sessions in the box, a goal (rightfully) called offside, a (rightful) penalty kick goes off the woodwork.... everything you could imagine for failing to score, they did.

HOU's great defense this year just held up - with a healthy dose of luck - while on the other side of the field, Alozie managed to put two into the net and could've had a third. I'm quite happy with the result, but damn it was wild getting there.

 

Got to watch the last few minutes of the first half in RGN-NC. NC equalizes, confirmed with a long VAR review, RGN get two great set piece opportunities, then Kerolin gets on a breakaway and Cook does a DOGSO, so RGN go from being up 1-0 to giving up a goal and a player in quick succession. Will be an interesting second half for sure... I'm hoping the draw holds, since I've gotten 3/4 results so far going the way I wanted and a draw here would be 4/5