17 November League A Costa Rica(1446) vs. Haiti (1281) 1-1 0.5 - (1/(10^(165/600) + 1)) = 0.1532 0.1532 * 25 = 3.83 HAI +4 CRC -4 Honduras(1368) vs. Trinidad & Tobago(1210) 4-0 1 - (1/(10^(-158/600) + 1)) = 0.3529 0.3529 * 25 = 8.8225 HON +9 TRI -9 MEX 1618 (+6) USA 1538 (+8) JAM 1447 (+6) CRC 1442 (+6) HON 1377 (+9) SLV 1340 (+4) [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1285 (+4) TRI 1201 (-12) ATG 1123 (-6) Costa Rica wins the group, Haiti is relegated, Curacao in the middle. If the USA gets the win vs. Cuba, the Nations League final stage will have all four seeded teams and will not feature any battle for the final hex spots.
18 November League B Aruba(885) vs. Antigua & Barbuda(1123) 2-3 1 - (1/(10^(-238/600) + 1)) = 0.2863 0.2863 * 25 = 7.1575 ATG +7 ARU -7 Jamaica(1447) vs. Guyana(969) 1-1 0.5 - (1/(10^(478/600) + 1)) = 0.3623 0.3623 * 25 = 9.0575 GUY +9 JAM -9 MEX 1618 (+6) USA 1538 (+8) CRC 1442 (+6) [+1] JAM 1438 (-3) [-1] HON 1377 (+9) SLV 1340 (+4) [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1285 (+4) TRI 1201 (-12) ATG 1130 (+1) Not much to say about these results. Tomorrow the group stage ends with Canada holding on to a sliver of hope for an upset or two. If Cuba somehow gets a result vs. USA, Canada gets the group win and a trip to the Nations League semifinals with a chance to rack up ranking points. If the Dominican Republic repeats its upset over El Salvador, then we go into 2020 with a very narrow margin at the cutoff line.
19 November League A Cuba(938) vs. USA(1538) 0-4 1 - (1/(10^(-600/600) + 1)) = 0.0909 0.0909 * 25 = 2.2725 USA +2 CUB -2 Mexico(1618) vs. Bermuda(986) 2-1 1- (1/(10^(-632/600) + 1)) = 0.0813 0.0813 * 25 = 2.0325 MEX +2 BER -2 League B El Salvador(1340) vs. Dominican Republic(1040) 2-0 1 - (1/(10^(-300/600) + 1)) = 0.2403 0.2403 * 25 = 6.0075 SLV +6 DOM -6 MEX 1620 (+8) USA 1540 (+10) CRC 1442 (+6) [+1] JAM 1438 (-3) [-1] HON 1377 (+9) SLV 1346 (+10) [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1285 (+4) The Nations League group stage ends with the same top 6 teams in the same order as when we started. It's really down to El Salvador and Canada, both of whom can only play friendlies the rest of the way. El Salvador should be heavily favored, but the unofficial 15-point margin is not so large that it couldn't be overcome over the course of four friendlies. Canada will have to schedule the right opponents and get the right results, and then who knows what El Salvador will do? Will it avoid friendlies to hold onto its point total? Will it drop points somewhere? I'm dropping the teams more than 100 points below the line from my tracking. I also will limit my posts about teams more than 100 points above the line. I will still track their rankings in my files, but I won't be making posts about various USA or Mexico friendlies unless they play some of these other teams. The official rankings will come out next week, and then I think there's another official ranking in December. I don't know if there will be any games to change anything between November and December.
The CSA needs to spend money on organizing friendlies if we are to have any chance at making it to the hex. Teams we should try and schedule friendlies with IMO are: Tunisia, Armenia, Ireland, Czech Republic, Jamaica, and Norway. IDEALLY, we end up with Armenia and Jamaica. Is there anybody who would be able to calculate how many points we'd get from wins against Armenia and Jamaica in a FIFA sanctioned window as well as how many points El Salvador would drop if they were to lose to Iceland.
Wait...when? How? Since Iceland have to go through the Euro 2020 playoffs in March. Unless that would be once of Iceland's pre-Euro friendlies in early June...
this is why its a stupid system, the rankings and especially stupid to allow that to determine the hex. Whether you think SLV or CAN deserve to go, its the same problem, playing friendlies to get into the Hex. Why dont they just schedule 2 friendlies against each other. It would be the 2 most serious friendlies ever played
According to this article January 19 https://www.elgrafico.com/seleccion...stoso-con-Islandia-en-2020-20191117-0010.html Sounds like they want to schedule more friendlies
With friendlies not worth as much, El Salvador actually has a decent cushion. Canada is probably going to have to risk playing some pretty good teams in order to get the needed points.
For El Salvador, an out-of-window friendly against Iceland would be approximately worth +3 for a win, +0.5 for draw, -2 for a loss. It does make some sense as a calculated risk. +3 is nothing to scoff at in the best case scenario, a draw does no harm, and worst case is -2 which isn't horrible.
Btw, while we're all focused on that last berth in the Hex, there's an even more exciting race going on one step down: Nicaragua had shoved their way into Pot A for Concacaf's WCQ Tier II tournament last month, on the strength of pummeling poor Dominica. ...and then the pinoleros crapped the bed this month and fell out of consideration. Now St. Kitts and Nevis are the last top seed - but Gold Cup qualifiers Suriname are 1 point off in the FIFA rankings And since neither will be involved in the Gold Cup playoffs (Suriname are already in, while SKN got relegated), they'll have to schedule friendlies to vie for the chance to be head of their group in September, rather than having to fight for survival against the likes of Trinidad and Tobago or Canada. @Surinamese-man any word on if the Natio have friendlies lined up for March?
We have heard reports that Natio will play friendly matches.The first would be Panama.But we do not know whether a friendly game is also planned for March. As you know,the Surinamese government has given their approval with regard to legislation,but it takes some time because FIFA also has to give official approval. We do expect that this will be arranged as quickly as possible.
Official November rankings with a couple of 1-point adjustments from my unofficial numbers: MEX 1621 (+9) USA 1540 (+10) CRC 1442 (+6) [+1] JAM 1437 (-4) [-1] HON 1377 (+9) SLV 1346 (+10) [+1] -- CAN 1331 (-8) [-1] CUW 1313 (-10) PAN 1304 (-6) HAI 1285 (+4)
There are reports that USA will host El Salvador on February 1. El Salvador doesn't have much to lose in a low-weighted game against a better team. If they win or draw, it will make it even harder for Canada to win friendlies to catch El Salvador.
Canada will play Iceland in a friendly that will apparently count toward the rankings, Jan. 15 in Irvine, CA. Canada Soccer's Men's National Team will face Iceland during January camp in California.#CANMNT SCHEDULE 🍁 https://t.co/WkP92VPigB pic.twitter.com/AGSgmaIRuu— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) December 30, 2019 El Salvador is also slated to play Iceland in January, but there have been reports that it has been classified as a training match or closed-door event to make it unofficial for the rankings. Probably El Salvador didn't want its game with the USA to count, either, so the USA switched its opponent to Costa Rica.
How sad that teams have the choice to not earn their spot playing legitimate games on the field. Concacaf has become a joke for now.
The new ranking system is mostly an improvement over the old system, but one thing it lacks is any penalty for inactivity. In the old rankings, the points for old results were downgraded as time passed, but now a team's point total stays constant when it doesn't play, no matter how long it waits. In normal circumstances, federations are just going to schedule the games they need to schedule without worrying about that, as small fluctuations in the rankings are usually of little consequence. But CONCACAF has created here a huge consequence which can lead to a cynical strategy to avoid playing any games. It's not a huge offense that El Salvador won't play in January outside of the FIFA windows, but it will be disappointing if it avoids playing in the March or June windows.
Canada has added two games vs. Barbados to its January camp in California. https://www.canadasoccer.com/canada...nal-team-holds-january-camp-p162533-preview-1 These could be considered high-risk, low-reward matches, as wins would be worth approximately 1 point each, while losses would be nearly -4 points each. On the other hand, Canada is making an effort to chip away at the 15-point margin. Best case scenario from winning all three games would be +5 points, leaving the margin at 10 points going into the FIFA windows. That is a gap that is possible to be closed, but it requires continuing to get positive results.
Canada has the right idea, but they aren't committing to it. They shouldn't play Barbados twice during their 12 day camp, they should play them twice a day during the camp. That would give them a solid ead on El Salvador coming out of the camp.
Looks like Iceland is bringing their B-team: no Gylfi, no Traustason, no Gunnarsson, no Magnússon, no Kjartansson, no Viðar.
Diminishing returns: every Canada win would drop Barbados's ranking, which would in turn diminish the number of points that Canada could gain from beating them.
We only lose 0.01 points after each win, that's not really the issue. It's the fact that a 26 man roster cant play 24 matches in 12 days.