2022 WC qualification--tracking the rankings (R)

Does that really favor Canada @Robert Borden? I would definitely say not

 

US are not beatable...but this new format is much better than a Hex

 

My sense is that this new Canada team is spoiling for a fight against those Central American teams, not worrying about what might happen down south. The attitude is more that it is time for some payback.

I'd have preferred a round-robin type format where we could qualify by finishing third. I don't think we have what it takes to beat Mexico or to reliably beat the US. So we'd be in tough if we had to win a group that contained either of those teams. Give us the other group and I expect we go through.

 

Using the current FIFA Rankings, the draw for the top 12 would have:

Pot 1: Mexico, USA, and Costa Rica
Pot 2: Jamaica, Honduras, and El Salvador
Pot 3: Canada, Curacao, and Panama
Pot 4: Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, and Antigua and Barbuda

The top team in the everybody else group would be Guatemala in 130th, who is 57 spots behind Canada in 73rd who would be the top team in the everybody else group if it started with seventh. Antigua and Barbuda had 80,000 to 90,000 people and played respectably in the 2014 Semifinals. Their only point was hosting Jamaica, but they didn't get blown out. They lost by 1 twice, by 2 twice, and by 3 once. They started with a 3-1 loss at USA and came close to a draw hosting USA before Eddie Johnson scored his second goal in the 90th minute for a 2-1 win. They only trailed by at least 2 goals for 41 minutes and stoppage time in six games combined. Their 13 goals allowed included the 88th, 90th, and 90+1st minutes.

With 29 teams in the everybody else group, there would have been eight groups. 23 teams is too few to have eight groups because their would be seven groups of three and two teams left, which doesn't make a group. Five groups of four and one group of three would work, but they would have to advance two second place excluding results against fourth place teams to compare the second place teams based on 4 games each (2 against first and 2 against third). Alternatively, since the top groups won't need more matchdays than the bottom groups, they could end at the same time. The top two second place teams from the top path and the bottom six group winners could play an eight team bracket for the last spot. This would require only six matchdays after the bottom groups, whereas the original plan had eight matchdays, with six to determine the winner of the bottom 29 and two against the Hexagonal fourth place team. You could say that the games after the groups for team(s) from the top path should go up from two in the original plan to six in my plan, but it would be 12 total in both cases, with 10+2 in the original plan and 6+6 in my plan. If you wanted to give a top path team fewer games, you could advance one second place team and give them a bye to the semifinals of the bracket, with the six group winners entering one round earlier. In all cases I'm excluding the interconfederational playoff in the amount of games.

 

Wait what the hell

 

This is probably what they'll have to do. I would think that Guatemala is the big favorite in this group, with Suriname being a good "value" bet. But, one rash decision/red card by a player can really shake up results. The ill-timed red card could really affect the top 3 (12) as well.

 

But seeing the Pots...drawing a team from each pot...the draw would be unpredictable at best but that would be the beauty of it

 

Can curaçao qualify or are they concacaf events only?

 

I mean Curacao they are an emerging team full of Dutch players

 

bummer that there would only be 2 away games (the best part of WCQ) and 4 games total. Compared to the 4 and 8 of the Hex. But understood with the compressed time frame.

 

No I meant are they eligible to qualify, or are they in the same area as martinique. I thought they couldn’t play wcq quailes

 

I think Curacao will be able to but if not then Suriname is another nation that could take part in qualifiers and they too are also an emerging team of Dutch Antilles players

 

It’s super unfortunate what the pandemic has done to international soccer. Hopefully 2021 is better

 

I know right because I miss international soccer

 

Guadeloupe, Martinique, Bonaire, French Guiana, Saint Martin, and Sint Maarten are the associate members. Everybody else can play WCQs.

 

So then Curacao and Suriname are eligible to take part in qualifying? I love it

 

But with this new CONCACAF format of 3 groups of 4 teams; top 12 teams in CONCACAF placed in qualifying groups; group winners directly qualify for Qatar 2022 and the best 2nd placed team then goes into the Intercontinental playoff...this is a better format than the Hex if you ask me

You get to Qatar on your own merits by winning your qualifying group...you get a direct spot...it is a simple way

Just like if you finish 2nd place in your qualifying group...in order to be the best 2nd place team you have to not only win your games but have a superior goal difference than the other 2nd place teams in other groups...really simple

But then if you are second and you go to the inter continental playoff, you don't know if you will face an Oceania team, a South American team from CONMEBOL or an Asian team from AFC which is why if you finish second, then you kind of have to be wary.

 

USA, Jamaica, Panama & T&T. Now that'd be interesting.

 

I think Mexico is too talented to miss out on Qatar. No way that happens. Plus you also have Costa Rica and even Canada to worry about too.