Watched the Burundi - Tanzania. East Africa is still as bad as always. Tanzania has the idea, can pass better than us, their midfield covers well, but they have zero idea how to score a goal. They can have three guys against a single defender and still manage to ruin the chance somehow.
I've actually wondered if Eastern/Central/Southern Africa would be better off just forming their own separate confederation and leaving North and West Africa by themselves in the original CAF. Apart from South Africa's three WC appearances, off the top of my head the rest of that region has... Zaire 1974 and Angola 2006, so two WC appearances ever. Granted, the expansion might allow some teams like DRC and Zambia to qualify (both were 2nd in their groups last time, so would likely have been there with 9 spots instead of 5). Then again, if the confederation were to be divided, ECS Africa would likely get at least a couple of spots guaranteed. Maybe they're better off splitting for a guaranteed reward instead of gambling on more success in the existing confederation? One downside of course would be weaker opposition, and South Africa in particular might not like playing in such a weak confederation given its name and pedigree. Then again, this is a team that was eliminated by Ethiopia in 2014 WC qualifying... In form, they would easily be kings of an ECS Africa confederation. And of course a divided confederation also means ECS African teams would no longer participate in the AFCON, where a few have achieved moderate success. Arguably, it would increase global representation (if we care about that), since we have really only seen North and West African sides pretty much at the global level.
Peru is starting to look quite formidable. Today they defeated Brazil with all their stars 1-0 in LA.
Senegal with a decent 1-1 draw today against Brazil in Singapore after a first-half stoppage time penalty canceled out an early goal from Roberto Firmino. Seems to have basically been Brazil's A team, too, minus a change for goalkeeper.
Asia had blowouts. 13 of the 16 games were shutout wins, with the exceptions as Jordan 0-0 Kuwait, Syria 2-1 Maldives, and Lebanon 2-1 Turkmenistan. The scores included Australia 5-0 Nepal, Japan 6-0 Mongolia, Korea Republic 8-0 Sri Lanka, China 7-0 Guam, Uzbekistan 5-0 Yemen, IR Iran 14-0 Cambodia, Kyrygz Republic 7-0 Myanmar, and United Arab Emirates 5-0 Indoneisa. Half of the games were shutouts of 5-0 or higher with a combined score of 57-0! I gave the scores in chronological order, so Australia, Japan, and Korea Republic all had the biggest margin of victory of the day when they finished. Tuesday's games include: Group A: Philippines (3 points in 2 games) tries to stay in contention hosting China (6 points in 2 games) Group D: Palestine (3 points in 2 games) hosting Saudi Arabia (4 points in 2 games) and Singapore (4 points in 3 games) hosting Uzbekistan (3 points in 2 games) are important. Yemen is last with 2 points in 3 games and has off. All five teams have 2 to 4 points. Every other group has first and last separated by at least 5 points. Group E: Qatar (7 points in 3 games) hosting Oman (6 points in 2 games) and India (1 point in 2 games) hosting Bangladesh (0 points in 2 games) are important. Qatar is in the group because it doubles as qualifying for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup, but they will not play in the second group stage. The eight group winners and best four second place teams advance, and the fifth best second place team advances if Qatar wins the group or is one of the best four second place teams. If Qatar wins the group, it is possible that no team from this group advances. Oman will be in good shape with a win or draw. India and Bangladesh will have their chances go from slim to none if they don't win. Group F: Tajikistan (6 points in 2 games) hosting Japan (6 points in 2 games) and Mongolia (3 points in 3 games) hosting Kyrygz Republic (3 points in 2 games) are both between tied teams. Tajikistan won 1-0 twice compared to 2-0 and 6-0 by Japan. While having 3 points each, Kyrygz Republic has scored 7 and allowed 1, and Mongolia has done the opposite. Kyrygz Republic won 7-0 hosting Myanmar, and Mongolia lost 6-0 at Japan. Myanmar lost 3 games by a combined score of 10-0 and has off. If Japan and Kyrygz Republic win, Kyrygz Republic will pass Tajikistan on goal differential. Group G: Thailand (4 points in 2 games) hosts United Arab Emirates (6 points in 2 games). Last time Thailand reached the second group stage where they got 2 points in 10 games. Indonesia (0 points in 3 games) hosts Vietnam (4 points in 2 games with a scoreless draw followed by a 1-0 win hosting Malaysia). Vietnam will move up to second if they get more points than Thaliand. Malaysia has 3 points in 3 games and is off. Group H: Like Group F, there is a game between two teams with 6 points in 2 games but very different goal differentials, and the team with the worse goal differential is at home. Korea DPR (3 goals scored and 0 allowed) hosts Korea Republic (10 goals scored and 0 allowed). Lebanon (3 points in 2 games) needs to win at Sri Lanka (0 points in 3 games) to remain in contention, while Turkmenistan (3 points in 3 games) has off. Even with a win, Lebanon will have a hard time advancing because they will have played everyone except Korea Republic.
With the exception of Qatar's group this round saw all the top seeded teams host the bottom seeded teams. Seven of the eight 5-0 or more scores you mentioned were these matches. It was always going to be the blowout round.
It's still a high rate of blowouts. The three matchdays have had 11 of 48 games (22.9 percent) decided by at least 5 goals. In UEFA's Group Stage for World Cup 2018, 23 of 270 games (8.5 percent) were decided by at least 5 goals, and that's with the top teams being better than the top Asian teams.
Nigeria 1 Brazil 1 Brazil now winless in 4 matches since their Copa victory. They were under heavy pressure to win today.
Yeah it's the new system they have... everything is expanding.. used to be this stage was only 20 teams, 5 groups of 4, but starting last WC cycle, they expanded it to 40 - 8 groups of 5 and expanded the final round from 10 to 12 teams. There were some interesting results, Guam getting wins against India and Turkmenistan, Philippines beating North Korea and Bahrain, and of course Syria's fairy-tale run... This year you've got Palestine beating Uzbekistan, India getting a point at Qatar but again a lot of blowouts. I remember watching Qatar beat Bhutan 15-0 in the 2018 qualifiers, and now you've got Iran 14-0 Cambodia... but I guess this is the only way these teams will improve.....
UEFA may be a bit more balanced than AFC, but there is a big incentive for AFC teams to score as many goals as possible in these type of games as only the top 4 of 8 second placed teams go through, and goal difference is usually a big factor in this.
So teams could advance based on how BAD other teams in their group are, and not how GOOD they are. This kind of thing is ridiculous, they should get rid of those minnows in an earlier round. This is football, not cricket.
I agree with your first point. I don't think it's an ideal situation. I would prefer a playoff round among the second placed teams so at least they progress by performance against each other. I don't agree with your comment about minnows though. AFC has a preliminary round that eliminates six nations. This isn't the final round here, with 12 nations moving on to World Cup Qualifiers where competition is a bit closer. The large amount of teams in this stage is a result of combining Asian Cup and World Cup qualifiers. The 12 who go on to Round 3 World Cup qualifying all also gain qualification to the Asian Cup. Another 24 nations will move on to 3rd round Asian Cup qualifying (some directly, some through a playoff round). There is another tournament organised for the six nations eliminated prior to the group stage which is also available to some of the teams that miss out on the Asian Cup final round of qualifying. Unless the "minnows" get the opportunity to play against some of the big boys they never get to improve. I think we can handle the odd blowout or two whilst this happens.
Finland are on the verge of qualifying for their first ever finals tournament. Due to Bosnia's loss to Greece all they need to do is win their final home game against Liechtenstein and their final match against Greece will be moot. Four years ago we got Iceland, and I wonder if Finland can repeat that achievement with consecutive debut qualifications.. first the Euro Cup and then the World Cup. Just beat Liechtenstein and their finally over the wait for it.... "Finnish line" Next up... Faroe Islands to qualify for Euro 2024!
In World Cup 2018 Qualifying, FIFA suspended Indonesia after the draw, so one group had four teams, and second place teams were compared using results against first, third, and fourth. Would it make sense to do that even when every group has five times so margins against the bottom team don't matter? China PR was the fourth and final second place team to advance, and they had one more point than Korea DPR, who was the best second place team eliminated. All seven second place teams in five team groups won both games against the fifth place team. I don't think a confederation will ever have a playoff round in between group stages. This round uses both matchdays all five times. The second group stage uses both matchdays three times and one matchday four times. That's seven pairs. That's enough to spend one pair on playoffs in between group stages and still have six pairs for the second group stage. I don't like when a group stage has almost every team. IMO group stages should have every team or eliminate at least 20 percent before them. A simple format AFC could have used would have been to eliminate 10 of 46 teams and then played six groups of six, with the top three in each group advancing and one third place team advancing if Qatar was in the top two. Groups of six require more games than groups of five, but not more matchdays. The Group Stage has 1.60 goals per team per game. The top European leagues are near 1.4. The Premier League is at 1.44 through 8 games per club. In World Cup 2018 Qualifying, this round had 1.72 goals per team per game.
Most Asian teams will play their 5th game of the round tomorrow, before wrapping up qualifying until March. A recap so far: Group A: Syria have been perfect through 4 games and are 5 points clear in first place. They do wrap up the group away to China but their next 3 games are The Philippines, Maldives, and Guam. If they get 9 points in those, they will clinch this group. The Philippines did manage to pick up an impressive home draw against China, and they are currently tied with China on points for 2nd (though China has a 10 goal differential edge). With China having 3 of their last 4 games at home and The Philippines still having to play China away, it's hard to see China not being the runner up. Group B: The Aussies are perfect through 4 games, and they've beaten both of their toughest opponents on the road. The Aussies should win this group. The battle for second is between Kuwait and Jordan, and Kuwait has a 10 goal differential advantage on The Jordanians and they also picked up a draw last month in Amman. The 2 teams will play in Kuwait City in March, I imagine that will decide 2nd place. Group C: It's been a rough start for the Iranians who some think are the best team in Asia. They lost to both Iraq and Bahrain away and currently find themselves in 3rd place. The good news is that 3 of their last 4 games are at home. It's a big game for The Iraqis tomorrow. They get Bahrain at "home", if they win they'll be 5 points clear of The Iranians and would just need to take care of business against Hong Kong and Cambodia to clinch the group. If Bahrain gets the away result you're going to have a fascinating 3 team race in that group. Group D: The Saudis have had a few stumbles failing to beat both Palestine and Yemen away, however they picked up a massive road win against The Uzbeks on Friday (coming back from a 2-1 deficit in the final 10 minutes). They're 2 points clear in first place and 3 of their last 4 are at home so they appear likely to hang on to this group. The Uzbek's are still probably favorites to finish 2nd, but with road games against Yemen and Saudi Arabia still on tap it's no guarantee. On top of that The Uzbeks may not have enough points to be one of the top 4 or 5 group runner ups even if they do. For a team that's been so painfully close the last 2 cycles, a first round exit would be disappointing. Group E: The Qataris and Oman appear to be far and away above everyone else in this group (though Qatar did have a weird stumble at home against India). Since Qatar has qualified anyway, the only question of this group is whether Oman can win it outright or whether they'll have to hope to be one of the top 5 runnerups. Qatar currently has the edge by a point, but the 2 teams will meet in Muscat in June. Group F: Japan is rolling and has already beaten their two toughest opponents away. They're far batter than anyone in this group and are going to win it. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan appear to be battling for 2nd. They're tied at 6 points and play tomorrow in Kyrgyzstan. Both still have to play Japan away, and I don't think either will have enough points to be one of the best runnerups. Both really need 3 points tomorrow. a draw could end up eliminating both. Group G: Vietnam has been the team of the round so far. They beat The UAE at home and managed to get an away draw in Thailand. They host Thailand tomorrow, and if they win they're going to be in pole position to qualify for the final round, something they've never come close to doing under this format. If Thailand can get an away win in Vietnam this will be a really interesting 3 way race. They're 3 points shy of Vietnam, and The UAE is 4 points shy but they still get both teams at home. Group H: The South Korean's did fail to beat both North Korea and Lebanon away, but they still hold a 1 point lead and now they get the home legs against both. North Korea and Lebanon are tied for second (with Lebanon having a GD edge of 1) They play tomorrow in Beirut, and you have to think the winner will be in good shape for 2nd. If that game ends in a draw Turkmenistan could sneak back into this. They're only 1 point behind both, and have Lebanon at home, plus they destroyed North Korea in Ashgabat on Friday. THis could be another group where the 2nd place team won't have enough points to advance.
Here's how Tuesday's games went. In the standings, all teams have 5 games played except for teams with 4 games marked with a *. Teams play 8 games. Group A: Maldives 3-1 Guam, Syria 1-0 Philippines Syria: 15, +10 China PR: 7*, +11 Philippines: 7, +0 Maldives: 6, -4 Guam: 0, -17 (eliminated) In addition to having a game in hand, China PR played a scoreless draw at Philippines, and China PR has 3 home games and a trip to Guam left. Syria are done playing at home, but if they win at Maldives and Guam they will clinch first before ending at China PR. China PR is most likely to finish second, and they could have 15 to 17 points. Philippines and Maldives don't have a realistic chance. Group B: Nepal 0-1 Kuwait, Jordan 5-0 Chinese Taipei Australia: 12*, +15 Kuwait: 10, +14 Jordan: 10, +8 Nepal: 3, -14 Chinese Taipei: 0, -23 (eliminated) Australia has 3 home games and a trip to Nepal. It would be shocking if they don't win the group. Kuwait hosts Jordan on Match 8, and both of them have 2 away games other than that including going to Australia. If Kuwait wins hosting Jordan and at Chinese Taipei and loses at Australia, they could finish second with 16 points. Given the goal differential gap, Jordan probably needs to win at Kuwait and/or get a win or draw at Australia. Nepal doesn't have a realistic chance. Group C: Hong Kong 2-0 Cambodia, Iraq 0-0 Bahrain (in Jordan) Iraq: 11, +7 Bahrain: 9, +2 IR Iran: 6*, +14 Hong Kong: 5, -2 Cambodia: 1, -21 IR Iran has 3 home games and a trip to Cambodia. Iraq and IR Iran can win the group by winning their remaining games. Bahrain doesn't control their own destiny because they're done playing Iraq. If IR Iran wins all 4 games, and Iraq wins hosting Cambodia and at Hong Kong, Iraq will finish second with 17 points. IMO this group will have the second place team advance. Hong Kong and Cambodia don't have a realistic chance. Group D: Uzbekistan 2-0 Palestine, Yemen 1-2 Singapore Uzbekistan: 9, +6 Saudi Arabia: 8*, +4 Singapore: 7, -3 Yemen: 5, -5 Palestine: 4, -2 Every group has first and last separated by at least 9 except for the 5 point gap here. Uzbekistan had only 1 home game left, and Saudi Arabia has 3 home games left including ending hosting Uzbekistan. If Saudi Arabia get at least 5 points from hosting Yemen and Palestine and at Singapore, Saudi Arabia will have a chance to win the group with a win hosting Uzbekistan. It's possible that one or both of them will clinch being first or one of the best five second place teams before then, but it's possible nobody clinches advancing before then. Uzbekistan goes to Yemen and hosts Singapore. Singapore may need to win all 3 to finish in the top two. If they win at Palestine and hosting Saudi Arabia and draw at Uzbekistan, they would have 14 points, which might not be enough to be one of the best five second place teams even if it was enough to finish ahead of Uzbekistan or Saudi Arabia to get second. Yemen has only 1 home game left. Palestine has 2 home games left and is done playing Uzbekistan, but winning all 3 games may not be enough. Group E: Afghanistan 0-1 Qatar (in Tajikistan), Oman 1-0 India Qatar: 13, +10 (will not play in the next round) Oman: 12, +7 Afghanistan: 4, -9 India: 3, -2 Bangladesh: 1*, -6 Everyone other than Oman doesn't have much to play for. Oman plays Afghanistan in Tajikistan, hosts Qatar, and goes to Bangladesh. Two wins would probably be enough to be one of the best five second place teams. In March, Qatar goes to India and hosts Bangladesh. Oman vs. Qatar is on June 4, and Qatar has the last matchday off while Oman is at Bangladesh. Oman controls their own destiny to win the group. If Oman gets 2 wins including against Qatar and a draw, and Qatar wins their other 2 games, first will be decided on goal differential. In that case Qatar and Oman would have 19, and Oman would certainly be among the best five second place teams. If Oman finishes with 21 or 19 points, and Qatar finishes with 19, Qatar will be among the best four second place teams if they don't win their group, so it would be a big surprise if they fell far enough that the fifth best second place team doesn't advance. Group F: Myanmar 1-0 Mongolia, Kyrgyz Republic 1-1 Tajikistan Japan: 12*, +13 Kyrgyz Republic: 7, +5 Tajikistan: 7, -2 Myanmar: 6, -8 Mongolia: 3, -8 Japan has three home games and a trip to Mongolia. Like Australia, they are perfect through 4 games with 3 home games and a trip to a bad team left. If Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Myanmar all lose in Japan, finishing second with at most 13 points will probably not be enough to be one of the best five second place teams. Japan could lose 2 games and finish first. There probably won't be much drama at the end. Sebsasour and Wikipedia say Kyrgyzstan, but at some point FIFA changed their name to Kyrgyz Republic. Group G: Malaysia 2-0 Indonesia, Vietnam 0-0 Thailand Vietnam: 11, +4 Malaysia: 9, +2 Thailand: 8, +3 United Arab Emirates: 6*, +4 Indonesia: 0, -13 (eliminated) Vietnam and Malaysia have 1 home and 2 away, Thailand has 2 home and 1 away, and United Arab Emirates has 3 home and 1 away. Vietnam, Malaysia, and United Arab Emirates win the group if they win out. United Arab Emirates' only away game is at Indonesia. They could win 3 games and finish with 15 or more points. In head-to-head games between the top three, Thailand hosts Malaysia, and Malaysia hosts Vietnam. If Vietnam wins hosting Indonesia and loses at Malaysia and United Arab Emirates, they could fall from first to fourth. Every remaining game could be meaningful, and with four teams contending it's not worth guessing how many points second place will have. United Arab Emirates leads in goal differential per game. If it comes down to last matchday on June 9, United Arab Emirates hosts Vietnam and Thailand hosts Malaysia. If the games are played at the same time, it will be an unusually early start in United Arab Emirates or an unusually late start at Thailand. If the game at United Arab Emirates is first, Thailand or Malaysia could clinch advancing before they kickoff, which could also happen if an earlier game in a different group guarantees that a team who already clinched second or higher will be among the best five second place teams if they finish second. Group H: Turkmenistan 2-0 Sri Lanka, Lebanon 0-0 Korea DPR Turkmenistan: 9, +3 Korea Republic: 8*, +10 Lebanon: 8, +2 Korea DPR: 8, +1 Sri Lanka: 0, -16, has not scored in Round 1 or Round 2 and only got here because Macau forfeited the second leg of Round 1 (eliminated) With three home games and a trip to Sri Lanka, Korea Republic is in the best position. If they win 3 of 4, they will probably win the group or be one of the best five second place teams. Turkmenistan and Lebanon have 1 home game, and Korea DPR has 2. Turkmenistan hosts Lebanon in March, and Korea DPR ends hosting Turkmenistan. The other game on the last matchday is Korea Republic hosting Lebanon. Sri Lanka has the last matchday off, so the suspense if they can play in two qualifying rounds without scoring will be over after Matchday 9. Turkmenistan will finish first or second if they lose at Korea Republic, win hosting Lebanon, and win at Korea DPR. They would have 15 points, and it could be close as to if that would be enough to be one of the best five second place teams. Having Matchday 9 off before going to Korea DPR could be good for Turkmenistan. Korea DPR will be returning from a short trip to Korea Republic. Here's a summary of how likely teams are to advance IMO: Extremely likely: Syria, Australia, Oman, Japan, and Korea Republic (5) Likely: China PR, Kuwait, IR Iran, and Saudi Arabia (4) One game could make a big difference: Iraq, Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Turkmenistan, Lebanon, and Korea DPR (10) Unlikely to Very Unlikely: Philippines, Maldives, Jordan, Nepal, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Singapore, Yemen, Palestine, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Myanmar, and Mongolia (16) Eliminated: Guam, Chinese Taipei, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka (4) Could not play in Round 3 before Round 2 started: Qatar (1)
Excellent analysis and a job well done. I would add that although Qatar doesn't have much to play for in terms of world cup qualifying, They will definitely want to be one of the 12 best teams so they don't have to go through another round of Asian Cup qualifying which would likely distract them from World Cup preparation. I think they would rather play friendlies against potential World Cup teams looking for some advance scouting of conditions in Qatar rather than second and 3rd tier Asian sides. Its similar for a lot of the other teams, as finishing 3rd (or one of the best 4 4th placed teams) means you go straight to Asian Cup qualifying and the rest have to go through playoffs. This means that even though they can't make the World Cup, they still have something to play for.
Russia banned from The World Cup (they can still appeal) https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/50710598 The athletes will still be able to compete under a neutral flag in The Olympics like they did in 2018, but I'm not sure how that would work in international soccer
According to this, they can still qualify because https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/50716196 Sounds like one pretty big loophole.
Sounds like they can play in the qualifiers and technically qualify but not actually go and play in the tournament. Could they qualify and play under another flag other than Russia (a Jolly Rodger seems fitting) like they kind of did in the Olympics?
DRAW DONE ✅1⃣2⃣0⃣ matches to be played before the next stage of the #WCQ ⚽Which 🔟 teams will qualify to the knockouts? 🏁#WorldCup 🏆 pic.twitter.com/RxGmI3YaDG— CAF (@CAF_Online) January 21, 2020 One of Ivory Coast or Cameroon will be knocked out of World Cup qualifying before the final qualifying round. Every other group I expect the usual suspects to go through.
Seems like the right moment for a thread bump, in case others are interested in continuing the conversation. I think the whole world is fair game, but I'll post about what interests me the most. CONMEBOL (South American) World Cup 2022 qualification commences tomorrow, todos contra todos, ten nations, home-and-away, 18 games, traditionally played in pairs (one home game, one away) on FIFA international breaks. Tomorrow (Oct 8) we have: Uruguay v Chile Paraguay v Peru Argentina v Ecuador Colombia v Venezuela Brazil v Bolivia Next Tuesday (Oct 13): Bolivia v Argentina Ecuador v Uruguay Venezuela v Paraguay Peru v Brazil Chile v Colombia
Although the US is sitting this window out, there are other friendly games of interest. Today (Oct 7) I see ... Netherlands v Mexico Portugal v Spain Germany v Turkey Switzerland v Croatia France v Ukraine ... and many others, with most of the prime games kicking off at 2:45 PM eastern.
Uruguay gets the late penalty to win 2-1 over Chile at home. . Paraguay drew Peru 2-2 at home Argentina earned a 13th minute penalty that ended up being the lone goal in a home win over Ecuador. Tonight Colombia will host Venezuela, and Brazil will host Bolivia. CONMEBOL will be it as far as World Cup Qualifying goes this year, with every other confederation starting or resuming in March (except Africa, who will resume in late May)
Sounds like having the World Cup in winter was a blessing in disguise, no way they would be able to get all those qualifiers and the draw done with the pandemic and having a summer WC. That being said, Colombia and Brazil take care of business, winning 3-0 and 5-0 over Venezuela and Bolivia respectively.