2022 US House and Senate Elections

Of course, in reality, I agree with you. However, "Social/geographic cohesion" is part of the problem. This should not be a factor.

States should simply be divided into x-number of roughly equal populations, regardless of "who" lives there.

In Chicago, I was in Luis Gutierrez' (now "Chuy" Garcia's) district, one of the most stupidly gerrymandered places in America, to "carve out" a majority Hispanic district. Yes, the western end is merely a stretch of I-294.

It is just ridiculous result of judicially mandated gerrymandering.

 

...and this.

 

That was my old district as well until 2011 when it shifted a bit west to Western Ave. I'm not going to argue that it doesn't look ridiculous, but there is a good point to it. There are 1.3 million Hispanic residents of Cook County. But for that district, there would likely be zero Hispanic reps. I did work on this for STL at the local board level. The problem with hyperpartisan areas is that they tend to revert to white reps if the largest non-white population group is less than 60%.

Quick example: I looked at a dozen different largish central cities of metros where the municipal board districts were reasonably small (50K or less) and single member. There were something like 45 districts where the African American population ranged from 30-60%. How many African American reps were there in those districts? Zero.

The problem with making the most compact and regularly shaped districts ignoring the "who lives where" is that you'd end up cracking Dem districts in a lot of places outside of extremely large cities. Take Indiana. They'd just get rid of the 7th and pieces of other districts in Metro Indy. Crack it into Indy metro east and Indy metro west. That could easily end up two GOP seats. You could see the same thing in Columbus OH or along Lake Erie as well.

I might have brought up multimember districts to you in the reform post. If it were up to me, I'd maybe halve the number of districts but offer 3 reps per district. Everyone gets three votes. You can split the vote evenly among three different candidates, 2 and 1 for two different candidates or give all 3 votes to one candidate. This reduces the threshold you need to elect the minority party or a particular racial/ethnic group to 30%. It gets rid of the "need" for the earmuff district.

 

Republican states have already done this.

 

I live in this district MD-3. While MD is gerrymandered so all of the Democrats have safe seats, if the Democrats in the state house were a little less worried about safety, MD's delegation could be 8-0 instead of 7-1.

 

Well, that is the theory, but
1. Judges should not "create a Hispanic district" any more than saying to create any other district.

2. There were enough people on either side, when combined with non-Hispanic residents, to make a district. It did need to be nearly 100% Hispanic.

In fact, that works against more Hispanic representation, as it creates a single, nearly 100% Hispanic district, where there could be to approximately 60% Hispanic districts. Essentially, carve up Austin and Garfield Park (and the neighborhood immediately adjacent), at Lake or the Eisenhower, half to the north and half to the south, combined with the north part of the current district and the South part of the district, thus creating 2 predominately Hispanic districts.

That said, I am against any gerrymandering, even if done with noble intentions.

 

@Val1 lives there as well. Heather Mizeur has announced she will run against Andy Harris next year. It seems that the legislature will work on changing the lines of the district and make it more competitive.

Missed this earlier but it sure sounds like former Maryland state Del. Heather Mizeur is thinking about challenging Rep. Andy Harris in 2022. Under current lines she wouldn’t have much of a shot, but we know how ruthless Annapolis can be in redistricting.https://t.co/Pa5eP4Uvcm

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) January 23, 2021

 

Val1 lives in MD-1 not MD-3. The MD Eastern shore is not nearly populous enough to constitute its own congressional district so in the past it has also included parts of Cecil, Hartford, Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties in the more recent past. Redistricting could easily make it a Democratic district depending on which area west of the bay it is matched with.

 

That is an abomination, really.
It is a Rorschach test of awfulness.

 

The funny thing about this is that the roots of this part of the gerrymander are part of an intramural Democratic dispute. The most populated part of Anne Arundel County used to be MD-4 but the Democratic governor of MD, Schaeffer didn't like Tom McMillien the representative and the rest is history.

 

I remember Schaeffer, he endorsed GW Bush over Clinton..... For a state as blue as Md, Md had a string of shitty governors (R or D's). O'Malley may have been the best of the lot this past 30 yrs.

 

Fetterman is going to run promising to be 100% sedition free.

I haz a krush.

 

Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX) died Sunday night after a battle with Covid-19, the Dallas Morning News reports.

The congressman, who was reelected in November, had also been battling cancer.

 

Sadly, EVEN if they bring another pedo, the Republican primary may be the only race that matters.

 

Rematch ...

🚨Former Georgia Senator @SenDavidPerdue has filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC in a bid to return to the US Senate in 2022, challenging incumbent Democrat @SenatorWarnockhttps://t.co/vinWgWGFQ8 https://t.co/tVSkvUPeJi

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) February 15, 2021

 

Excellent!

It has become more difficult for Perdue to commit insider trading, now that he is no longer "inside."

 

Not exactly a rematch, as he lost to Ossoff. But close enough, I guess.

 

Yeah, close enough!

 

He should call Mc Sally for advices....

 

The online Democratic group War Donkey wants to defeat Ron Johnson. There are already three Democrats who announced they are running according to War Donkey, but Wikipedia only lists two.

Every state has a Senate election in two-thirds of even years unless they have a special election also. Michigan re-elected Gary Peters last year and Debbie Stabenow in 2018. A Republican loser who is running again is Jo Rae Perkins in Oregon, who believes QAnon. Her margin against Jeff Merkley was 1.2 points better than the Republican woman who challenged Merkley in 2014 when Republicans did great. I read speculation that David Perdue could run. North Carolina had two Republican House members retire because redistricting changed their districts from easily Republican to easily Democrat, and those were two of the three House districts Democrats gained last year. One of the two Republicans who retired, Mark Walker, is running for Senate.

The only incumbent who announced that he or she is running and already has a primary challenger is appointed Senator Alex Padilla, who is challenged by Jerome Horton. California has one primary for all candidates with the top two advancing to the general election, and the last two times both were Democrats.

You're right about the map being fixed, as it's down to six states with a senator from each party, and it will be four if the Democrats gain PA and WI and don't lose any seats. Ten Congresses ago, 14 states had a senator from each party. AZ, CO, FL, LA, NH, ND, SD, and VA are the eight states that had both senators of the same party then and both senators of the same party now with the parties switched. That includes Independents as Democrats. In 2018 the map was bad for Democrats, and in 2022 they have to deal with the president's party normally losing seats. It would have been good if the Democrats gained more seats in 2020.

I don't know if Republicans will ever let D.C. be a state, and if they filibuster it and stick together, a bill for D.C. and/or Puerto Rico to become states will never pass the Senate. I think it could be more likely to have them become states if they petition the Supreme Court that "equal protection of the laws" includes the right to vote for members of Congress (areas that are not states get non-voting delegates) or something like that.

Republicans announced six targets, which are those, Michael Bennet in CO, and Tammy Duckworth in IL. It would be a waste of money for Republicans to advertise in the high-population state of IL unless Duckworth leaves or gets in a scandal. The best use of money in Senate races is low-population swing states like NV and NH. Another possible Democratic gain is IA if Grassley retires. All of IA's House members were elected for the first time in 2018 or 2020, so they won't have any Senate candidates with a lot of experience in the House. Somebody said that MD, NH, and VT could all be Republican gains if the Republican governors run.

I read that FL requires people to be a resident for seven years before running. The Supreme Court ruled that term limits are unconstitutional because states cannot add qualifications for Congress that are not in the Constitution. By that precedent, FL's law is unconstitutional.

There have been 1,994 senators, so somebody elected in 2022 will be the 2,000th. The only nonconsecutive president, Grover Cleveland, was the 22nd and 24th, but nonconsecutive senators get one number.

I hope AOC doesn't primary challenge Schumer. In addition to liking Schumer better, it would be bad if Schumer had to spend money on a primary for a safe seat that he could give to other Democrats. In addition, the last senator to defeat an incumbent in a primary and win the general election was Mike Lee from Utah in 2010. The most recent primary loss by an incumbent was when Luther Strange (who was appointed to replace Jeff Sessions) lost a primary to Roy Moore, whose scandal made him lose the December 2017 special election to Doug Jones. Alabama responded by changing the law so future special elections will be on Election Day in even years which is as long as a state can wait, and most states wait that long. The most recent primary loss by an elected incumbent was when Indiana Republican Richard Lugar, who served 36 years, lost a primary in 2012, which led to Democrat Joe Donnelly gaining the seat that he lost in 2018. In addition to Lee, 2010 had Murkowski lose he primary and win the general election, and Democrat Arlen Specter (who switched to being a Democrat late in his career) lost a primary that resulted in Republican Pat Toomey winning. The second most recent senator to defeat an incumbent in a primary was John Sununu in New Hampshire in 2002. The third most recent time was a special election in 1996. Mike Lee is the only current senator who defeated an incumbent in a primary.