Things are looking good in Arizona. Arizona Senate:Mark Kelly (D-inc) 54% (+14)Blake Masters (R) 40%.@MomentiveAI/@CenterStreetPAC, 512 LV, 8/4-8— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 10, 2022
I wouldn't say toss-up, exactly, but one to worry about. Arizona Republicans aren't sending their best.
People seem to be stuck on how Arizona was a hardcore Republican state and their legislature is still one of the nuttier of the nuttier Republican legislatures. It'll be a good day when Arizona replaces it's state level politicians and, maybe, even legislature majority with Democrats. Side note.. I didn't realize that Arizona is only 2 seats away in both the House and Senate from being Democratically controlled. See what I mean about people being stuck in thinking Arizona is a hardcore Republican state? Daaaaaaang. That is a rapid shift from Republican to Democratic for Arizona.
People forget how Republican California used to be especially Orange County. It also goes the other way, West Virgina used to be solidly Democratic.
The CA transition from Republican to Democratic had less to do with the population becoming less Conservative, but rather it was a shift by the Republicans to purifying socially Liberal From their party. California Republican was the OG attack on What is now called RINOs. The opposite is true for West Virginia. In Arizona’s case, the rapid change isn’t the politics of the parties shifting, but large influx of Democrats moving from West Coast states to Arizona.
🚨🚨🚨Exclusive new poll, via @ChangePolls:@RepValDemings: 46% @MarcoRubio: 46% ***Second poll released this week showing Florida's U.S. Senate race is tied.***#FlaPol https://t.co/caBDEK4GkP— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) August 11, 2022
On the PA front, things are on the up-and-up for Shapiro and Fetterman. In a PA focus group with swing voters (Trump 2016/Not Trump 2020) and ZERO are planning to vote for Doug Mastriano for Governor. Even those willing to vote for OZ were “no’s” on Mastriano.— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) August 11, 2022 Watched a focus group last night of PA swing voters. They’d all supported Trump in 2016 and Biden or a third-party candidate in 2020.Zero were for Mastriano, all were for Shapiro.5 were for Fetterman, 1 was for Oz, and 2 wanted to leave their ballot blank.— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) August 11, 2022 (Same focus group btw)
Look at the dates of those polls: 3 from February 1 from March 2 from May 2 from July 538 should not be using six month old data. Not to mention that the primaries have not been held in Florida yet. The situation has changes quite a bit from February and March. For the most part, the polls reflect that.
I think it’s a little easier in a state like AZ that is basically a few urban areas, some tribal areas and uninhabitable land. More difficult to gerrymander. It’s easy to gerrymander when the rural areas actual contain a decent number of people. TX, NC, GA on the other hand...
Yesterday I realized the elections were getting close, so it's time to send a little cash to Senate candidates across the country. Kelly, Masto, Hassan, Barnes, Warnock, Ryan, Fetterman, Beasley. Then I switched to the House, but only got as far as Sharice Davids - my bank sent alerts about possible credit card fraud, so I decided to cool it for a while.
Wisconsin Primary update. Barns crushed, obviously. Thought he only got 77.8% That said, 4 others got over 1%, so things are good. And Johnson only got 83.7%. His opponent, one of those Crazies, got 16.3%. Gov. Evers will face election denier Crazy Tim Michaels. Should be an easier win than he had over Walker. And the final result, Crazy Robin Vos (incumbent) defeated challenger Crazier Adam Steen: 51.3% to 48.7%. The margin was 160 votes.
Note, several others dropped out after absentee voting had started. Also, some people are just stupid and weren't paying attention that almost every else dropped.. And, today Vos fired Michael Gableman, basically for backing Steen.
Been looking for this. I was about to start one. I am really unhappy about the candidates the Dem establishment has supported in some of the primaries. Henry Cellular over Jessica Cisneros in Texas is absolute bullshit. So to the Busch lady over Lucas Kunce in Mizzou And the lady they just parachuted in over Ken Russell in Florida. I mean the upstart can win but just seems too hard and so far Russell is the only who hasn't lost yet.
.@FiveThirtyEight Average:#GASen:Warnock (D-inc) 46.9% (+2.7)Walker (R) 44.2%.#NVSenCortez Masto (D-inc) 44.1% (+1.6)Laxalt (R) 42.5%.#NCSen:Budd (R) 44.3% (+0.3)Beasley (D) 44.0%— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 14, 2022
Is there a candidate & campaign moe comically incompetent than OZ'? I will he hard to match that level of ineptitude. By the way, there is no Wedners in Pa. There is Wegmans and Redners. What a clown! WT-absolute-F is this? First, "Wedners" is not the name of any grocery store in PA (maybe in NJ?). Second, he's clearly never shopped for food before in his life. #NoOzHere https://t.co/7I9j1lQJM3— Tuesdays with(out) Toomey (@TuesdaysToomey) August 15, 2022
Of the Republican candidates running i see the least what his motivation is. He already had fame and recognition and running for office is likely to make him poorer like it did Trump. Whatever happened to all of the loans outstanding that Trump was supposed to have trouble refinancing? Did his sale of his Trump hotel in DC solve his problems? Did the Ukraine Russia war stop him from having to pay his Russian creditors?