2022 US House and Senate Elections

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Yoshou, Jan 8, 2021.

?

Will Democrats retain both chambers of Congress after the 2022 election

  1. Yes, Democrats will retain both chambers

    30.0%
  2. No, Democrats will only retain the House

    10.0%
  3. No, Democrats will only retain the Senate

    22.5%
  4. No, Republicans will take control of both chambers

    37.5%
  1. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And this is what I think is interesting. Walker was about as quality as a candidate as Oz, yet Walker got 68% where as Oz got 31%. Now, I'm not knowledgeable enough about their main opponents in the primary, but just looking at the numbers it suggests that GA is far more MAGA than PA, which really should not be surprising (see MTG). Thus, the Warnock victory is really a powerful indictment of the Dems in GA.
     
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  2. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Oz was from NJ while Walker was practically a god in GA.
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2478 EvanJ, Dec 8, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2022
    About Perdue, how poor a candidate can an elected incumbent without a scandal be? If a majority was not required, he would have won in November 2020. Loeffler was an unelected incumbent.

    I would not say too much about Georgia from one of fourteen House members. One of the House Republicans most involved in trying to keep Trump as president was Scott Perry from Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania legislator Doug Mastriano, who lost for governor, made buses to the insurrection.

    My former House district, New York 4, was Biden's best district that elected a House Republican this year. Biden won it by 14.6 percent.
     
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  4. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Namibia
    Yep

    I dont think Walker has that much to do with Maga
     
  5. Mach1

    Mach1 Member+

    Jun 27, 2004
    Acworth, GA
    Club:
    Atlanta United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Walker was Trump's hand-picked choice for senator from Georgia. MAGA is entirely the reason why he won the Republican primary.

    As to how strongly he was a MAGA believer, it's kind of hard to tell because they hardly let him speak at events. There was usually someone else (especially on Fox) there to do the talking for him.

    We did find out he prefers werewolves to vampires, though. So...you know....there's that.
     
  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Namibia
    I suppose what I am getting at, is did Trump choose Walker or was it GOP primary voters?

    It seems to be he won by such a wide margin, that it doesn't really matter whether Trump supported him or not. As for the general it seems clear Trump does not help statewide candidates there.
     
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  7. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The answer may very well be both. Walker was Trump's handpicked candidate and it was a combination of Walker's popularity from football and Trump's endorsement that gave him the big margins in the Republican primary.

    It depends? As you said, if we are talking about the General Election, then Trump's endorsement DOES NOT help with statewide offices. HOWEVER, if we are talking about the Republican primary, then the opposite is true. Trump's endorsement absolutely DOES help with statewide offices. It is Trump's endorsements of the crazies that resulted in the poor quality of candidate the Republicans had in the statewide offices and it is why those candidates did so poorly in the General Election.
     
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  8. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Namibia
    Agreed with this. The thing about Trump is he tends to back the guy who is going to win.

    I agree he helped with the crazy, and he would have been far smarter to stay out, but I don't think him staying away fixes the crazy, because the local parties are sick and ridden with MAGA, Q and other conspiracies and extremism

    I spent some time listening to Tim Miller's indepth on the Lake fiasco, and while Trump jumped on the bandwagon, the crazy in the local part is so deep rooted I really wonder how you get out of it.

    What the GOP wants is "non trumpy" republicans like Youngkin to win locally and make everything salonfahig again, but i am sceptical such a model works because primary voters don't seem to like those people.

    Youngkin got on the ballot precisely because of the gatekeeper effect - i.e the local party prevented the crazy.

    There is a giant failure of gate keeping IMO, and the crazy people run the local parties
     
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  9. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Namibia
    GA became much more competitive after Stacy A and co built a huge campaign machine and registered millions of new voters. Once GA became competitive, it revealed how poor Perdue was as a campaigner despite the built in advantages

    This is exactly what you see in the veering from trad republicans like Perdue to a base popular candidate in Walker,
     
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  10. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Namibia
    Latest Pod Save America had some very good discussion from Dan Pfeiffer on these very issues

    TLDR

    1. Despite all the news since Jan 5 2020, the result in GA is remarkably similar to the 2020 result. Calcification? This doesn't mean LOL Nothing Matters - rather elections are being decided on small margins. This means events may play less of a role in the results than we think (e.g Trump/J6)

    2. In half a dozen races, Biden, Ossoff and Warnock convinced soft republicans to vote for them - seems critical tactic in purple states

    3. Compared Warnock to Barnes - Barnes not able to weather heavy attacks. Warnock successfully positioned as the bipartisan guy but not soppy centrist.

    It does seem GOP extremism played a big role. e.g. Kemp was able to run as the non-extreme moderate guy because of his resistance to Trump. This helped him versus Stacey who was painted as a leftist.
     
  11. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
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  12. diablodelsol

    diablodelsol Member+

    Jan 10, 2001
    New Jersey
    Ralph Nader’s campaign staffer tanks Democratic Senate Majority
     
  13. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    She’s gonna try to get re-elected this way because Dems reject her
     
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  14. marek

    marek Member+

    Lechia Gdańsk
    Poland
    Jun 27, 2000
    Club:
    OSP Lechia Gdansk
    sorry to be quoting myself…. But I just couldn’t help it

    he could still do it, even if he turns Independent like the Senator from the great state of Arizona just did

    ;)
     
  15. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    She has zero chance. She is hated by the Democratic base, she doesn't get any brownie point from the right in Nevada either. She is toast. I don't think she will run in 24. She is such a joke and a nitwit.
     
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  16. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I think she's trying to blackmail the dems into supporting her by avoiding the primary...

     
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  17. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    The moral of that message, I think, is that Democrats need to run as Biden did. Campaign in the middle, govern on the left. During the campaign, feel free to annoy the progessive wing by goring the occasional sacred cow. Convince the independents and RINOs that while you are a Democrat, you can be reasoned with. Then when elected, reliable vote for socialist policies.

    Obviously, AOC doesn't need to do that in her district. Nor does my Congresswoman. But that's the way to go in any purplish district, as well as when running for national office.
     
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  18. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Going independent is akin to resigning. Anybody who leaves one party is eternally destested by that party, while still being disliked by the other.
     
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  19. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    Which "socialist" policies?
     
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  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Toast, maybe. Pull enough of the vote to give the Republicans the win? Possibly. Her thought process is that this will force the Dems to not put up a candidate and risk losing the seat without her having to go through a Primary where she would likely lose.
     
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  21. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I should have kept reading the thread.
     
  22. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Boom! there it is.


    Shit, wrong thread.
     
  23. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I get it, but sometimes you have to let the terrorists kill the hostage, in order to deter terrorism.

    When it comes to the 2024 election, Dems should emulate Michael Corleone’s response to that Nevada senator. “My offer is nothing.”
     
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  24. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree superdave, but the Dems will always get taken for a ride by the terrorist.

    They have no will to see the hostage get harmed.
     
  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I imagine that Democrats don't have the votes in AZ to change elections to jumbled primaries.
     

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