We are just days away from the 2022 NWSL season. It's a significant year in many respects: 10 year anniversary, debut of two long-awaited California expansion teams (can LA finally topple Portland attendance records?), toxic male coaches/owners gone, new player-centric CBA ratified, new commissioner, no more baseball stadiums. Post 2022 predictions here (standings, awards, etc.) Challenge Cup Winner: difficult one to predict-- some clubs will be experimental, others playing their A teams. I really have no idea. Let's just say Houston Dash, why not. Final Table Standings 1) Washington Spirit: championship winning roster intact; why change what's working 2) OL Reign: clearing out many aging/loan players means the young prospects can step up; how will they adjust from a tiny grass baseball pitch to a giant turf one? 3) NY/NJ Gotham FC: I'm not so sure Harris and Krieger are upgrades. Still, top to bottom one of the deepest rosters 4) San Diego Wave: after early concern about zero midfielders, Stoney has assembled a stronger group than expansion counterpart LA 5) Kansas City Current: jettisoned the filler players that occupied last year's roster; North Carolina alums Mewis, Williams, Mace, Hamilton add bite to the attack; still question marks over the defense 6) North Carolina Courage: blank slate; core that dominated 2017-2019 is mostly gone, including all the experienced strikers; finally a shift away from 4-2-2-2 box formation? --------------------------------------------------- 7) Portland Thorns: losing Horan or Dunn is catastrophic, as well as some crucial role players. Besides Sugita no big signings to replace them. 8) Houston Dash: will continue to be a strong counterattacking team, but will leak goals I'm afraid. 9) Orlando Pride: roster overhaul was needed, but could be painful initially as young players gel 10) Angel City FC: Ertz's mystery absence is huge, I'm sure Coombe was planning to build the roster around her and Press (who hasn't played soccer since Olympics) 11) Chicago Red Stars: facing mass exodus from Dames fallout; even key players who remain are out for much/all of the season (Watt, Krueger, Woldmoe) 12) Racing Louisville: roster is still quite thin, lost midfield engine in McCaskill, not enough depth especially on defense MVP: Rose Lavelle (long underwhelming in NWSL, she will excel with a younger, faster Reign squad and bigger pitch to operate) Golden Boot: Lynn Williams DOTY: Alana Cook ROTY: Naomi Girma COTY: Laura Harvey GOTY: Kailen Sheridan
Could be wrong, but you may be underestimating the Thorns. We will see how things go, starting this weekend when they play at OL Reign. But based on player performances in their pre-season games, to me they look like they have better depth than in the past. It will be interesting, as they are playing differently than under Parsons. It is a more attractive brand of soccer -- but how that translates into results remains to be seen.
I will jump in, Why Not? There is so much change; and then there will be CONCACAF WC Qualifying, the Euros, other WC qualifying, plus new coaches and social turbulence. So here are my prognostications, with the table based on scoring: Coach, GK+Defense, Midfield, and Forwards for each team. Challenge Cup Winner: Gotham (even if they treat it as "pre-season.") Final Table Standings: 1) Washington 2) Gotham 3) OL Reign (can we call them Seattle again, please?) 4) Portland (surprised myself they are this high, but not @cpthomas ) 5) San Diego (solid GK-D-M-F, even with a new-to-NWSL coach) 6) Houston (additions balanced subtractions) 7) North Carolina (another one I am surprised is this high - the Debhina effect maybe) 8) Los Angeles 9) Kansas City (I'm unhappy I have them this far down.) 10) Louisville 11) Orlando 12) Chicago MVP: Midge Purce Golden Boot: Midge Purce (could be Hatch again, or Rodman) DOTY: Katie Naughton ( If Dahlkemper is healthy and truly leads in SD, she will get it) ROTY: Naomi Girma (maybe Diana Ordonez or Maria Sanchez (if she counts)) COTY: Scott Parkinson GOTY: Aubrey Kingsbury Note: There do not appear to be a lot of rookies in the final rosters, except in KC and NC. Let's Watch Some GAMES! -CJ
I'll have to catch up on the teams before venturing most predictions, but here are a few. Washington has to be the favorite to repeat. Gotham and OL competing for second. MVP: Trinity Rodman. Maybe the Sophomore jinx will kick in, but looks like she will rank high in both goals and assists. Golden Boot: Bethany Balcer. She'll have Rapinoe (maybe) and Huerta feeding the ball to her on crosses and she's a good poacher. Defender: I'd like to say Huerta, but more likely a CB. Naughton, maybe. Erceg, if NC has a decent year. I'm a fan of Sam Staab of Washington -- great foot, great throw in -- but I seem to be alone in that.
I'm going to do a bit of a cop-out and do what some of the writers for MLS do - instead of a full ranking, I'm just going to tier the teams (listing alphabetically within each tier): The Class Portland Thorns - Despite who they lost (including the coach), their roster has always been stacked, and I still see far too many players that can deliver, especially with the team likely being very on board with an ex-player as the new coach. Plus their HFA is some of the best in the league. Washington Spirit - last year I predicted that they would be a threat in the playoffs but might be too young to have the consistency for the Shield. Then they went and rattled off a season that was less than two forfeited games away from the Shield. This team has some of the least turnover in the league, which *can* result in stagnancy, but we usually don't see stagnancy kick in until year three (see Seattle 2016) or year four (NC Fall2020/2021). Looks Strong Angel City FC - not having Ertz hurts, but I still think the roster is pretty stacked, and Freya Combe is known for doing more with less. Plus, I think LA's HFA is going to challenge Portland's. NJ/NY Gotham FC - probably the most solid team in this tier. Nothing super impressive, but no major questions either. OL Reign - Ever since the Kim Little days were over, I've been unconvinced by the Reign, and though they've usually kept good consistency, the caliber of players that have left over this offseason is pretty high; I don't think Stanton and Latsko are upgrades or even holds. San Diego Wave - seems solid like Gotham is solid, but of course there's always the "expansion team" question mark. Good But Questions Houston Dash - Houston has had the cursed consistency of having the quality to make the playoffs but being one or two results away from actually getting above the line. I still think they have the tool to make the playoffs, but they've also lost several of their core players this offseason. KC Current - they were better than their record last year, and particularly showed promise in the latter half of the season. However, they still need help getting results away from home, and I'm not sure picking up the core of the NC Courage will be a hugely fruitful move considering how lackluster that core performed in 2021 and the 2020 Fall Series. NC Courage - As mentioned above, NC have been struggling for well over a year now, and have thus shipped their core out. They're not totally rebuilding because they still have a few pieces left, but I think they'll still be figuring a few things out this year. Rebuilding Chicago Red Stars - no explanation needed here. Lots of players wanted out, coach is gone, club culture needs to be reforged. Orlando Pride - huge amount of roster turnover with the new owners. Team needs to convince the market that they're worth supporting. Racing Louisville - like last year, this team is still capable of getting good results, but there just isn't much here, so those results won't come with any consistency I may predict that Challenge Cup later today, but I have no clue about individual awards.
Why is everyone saying the LA team are losers before we even hit the pitch? Shame on all of you for under estimating us, you don’t want to be the Away team at the Banc so the only thing that makes you feel better is predicting we will suck.
No shame here. Have you LOOKED at the coach and the roster? Freya Coombe has a far-from-steller 5 win 7 loss 3 draw record in the NWSL. Neither Jule Ertz nor Sarah Gorden are playing this year. The only players who have been regular starters in the NWSL are Press, Nielsen (but not last year), and McCaskill; and Haracic has only one season as full time starter. Enjoy supporting your team. Watch them through rose colored glasses. Have lots of fun.
Looking at the Angel city roster, I'd say they could finish anywhere between 4th and last. The fate of the team is probably going to rest on the performance of 4 internationals: Gilles (Canada), Ferrer (Spain), Taylor (England), and Endo (Japan). If the Internationals do well, if Christen Press has a good year, if Julie Ertz shows up, and if Sarah Gordon recovers from injury and plays the last half of the season then Angel City could make it to fourth. But that's a lot of ifs -- and more likely AC will be in the bottom half of the standings.
My choices: 1. Washington -- A no-brainer. Abundant talent. 2. Gotham -- no weaknesses that I can see. 3. OL Reign -- Who's minding the goal? Otherwise solid, but aging. 4. Kansas City -- How could they go lower with S. Mewis and L. Williams? 5. San Diego -- Lots of talent, could go higher. 6. Angel City -- Hard to place, lots of ifs. 7. Portland -- No Horan, no Dunn. 8. North Carolina -- Good defense and Debinha. That's all, folks. 9. Houston -- Daly can't do it all. 10.Chicago -- Could be higher, but looks tired to me. 11.Orlando -- No defense, no midfield. 12. Louisville -- Fox and not much else.
Wow, people predict my Red Stars to be pretty bad this year. CoachJon even has them coming in last. You may be right, as I nor any other CRS fan I have talked to have any idea how this season will go. So many players GONE! Coach GONE! Key players on maternity leave, draft picks not showing up, key draft pick traded. Heck I don't even know if Mallory Pugh is there. I haven't seen her on any Red Stars snippets in preseason, she didn't play in Portland last weekend. I don't know. I guess we'll see Sunday.
As a prophet I may lose my license for malpractice. The two most impressive teams in this weeks matches were Chicago and NC. I thought both teams were on a downhill path to mediocrity. Maybe not.
It was pleasant to see Chicago playing pretty well! Pugh was great, of course - the team played well together. Ava Cook - wow, she is a rookie spark off the bench!
And a new era under Coach Chris Petrucelli for the Red Stars begins with a win! I was impressed with the new kids. Also, have Mallory Pugh on your team and you can never bee counted out. I will save my judgement of the affect of the coaching change on the team chemistry, behavior, until next Friday. I'll be at the game in Chicago against KC. But i was pleasantly surprised, at least for one game.
I thought all the games were entertaining as well as fast and physical. How many had nearly 30 fouls? No meek and mild teams out there. Everyone wants their slice of the Challenge Cup $$. Get your popcorn ready.
Nagasato-Pugh may be a reprise of Nagasato-Kerr. Now that would be something. I felt happy for @MRAD12 tonight. HOU looked awful in possession. Perhaps I've been spoiled by watching FAWSL the last couple of months; the games there seem less frenetic, the players seem to know where to pass the ball, and most of them have a pretty good first touch.
Pugh is not Kerr, I don't think anyone is, but IMO, she is not far behind. If Yuki can feed her the ball like she did Kerr, Pugh will score plenty goals this season.
The OP set this up for season predictions, but having inadvertantly hijacked the thread already, I am advertantly going to put my Challenge Cup Weekend 2 predictions here. I only got one right for the first weekend - the RGN-POR draw, but that failure won't deter me now. Friday March 25 HOU at LOU - draw (either could win but neither team will want to lose this one) GOT at WAS - WAS win (even though both are coming off dissapointing results, WAS is home and they are champs for a reason) KC at CHI - CHI win (home and Yuki's positive impact ) Saturday March 26 RGN at LA - RGN win (better team) ORL at NC - ORL win ( they always play NC tough in NC, they are bouyed by last weekend, and the air will come out of NC's balloon) POR at SD - POR win (better team)
I have improved. I got two correct predictions in that most recent group. I did some maths (as they say in the UK), because I only got one right the fiirst round, I wondered how unlucky I would need to be to perform that badly, just picking at random. I got as far as this: It is not a two sided coin, either you are right or wrong, because the probabilites of the outcomes are not 50-50. The probabilities of the outcomes are like a wonky 3-sided coin. Based on the 2021 regular season results, for any one random game for any one random team, that team has a 25.8% chance of having a draw, a 37.1% chance of winning, and a 37.1% chance of losing. Onto tonight's predictions, within the paradigm that these are de facto pre-season games and the teams are injury-ridden. Team roster stability and depth count the most. GOT at ORL - GOT win NC at WAS - WAS win LOU at CHI - CHi win (no Emily Fox is biggest factor) KC at HOU - HOU win LA at POR - POR win Aside 1: More than 25% of games result in a tie, which must aggravate most American sports fans, but does not bother me in the least. Aside 2: IMO, no team with more losses than wins belongs in a championsip playoff, ever.
I managed to get 2 right from the five games Wednesday, so I am hoping for a step forward this weekend. Here I go, ignoring injury reports because they are too depressing: Saturday April 2 LOU at KC - draw (because both are playing well) LA at SD - draw (because Christen Press has to score some time, and SD's offense is less than irresistable) HOU at CHI - CHI wins (Nagasato and Pugh tip the scales over a disappointing HOU; is Clarkson in trouble?) RGN at POR - POR wins (home and Smith is on fire, but Balcer is not) Sunday April 3 NC at GOT - GOT wins (revenge for the first leg and NC will continue its slump that started in 2nd half vs. WAS) ORL at WAS - WAS wins (@ash_smash33 scores goals at Audi)
Once again I had 2 correct predictions - I did not backslide at least. This week, return from international play will be a factor with some players having been away for friendlies and some for qualification games, and some stayed in the US and some went to different time zones and countries. SD at RGN - RGN wins at home (May be the most interesting game of the weekend; SD could very well win). HOU at KC - KC wins at home (Fox needs a rest, but the team seems to be aggregating while HOU is not). NC at ORL - NC wins (Only road win I am predicting). CHI at LOU - LOU wins at home. WAS at GOT - WAS wins (GOT scoring is below expectations, and even though so many WAS were with USWNT, they are young, strong, and can bounce). LA at RGN - RGN win at home (RGN on short rest and LA could unleash both Press and Charley and steal a win). SD at POR - POR win at home (POR coming off a loss and SD on short rest). -CJ