you are hung-up on defending ELO but that's not what I'm debating/discussing. I'm saying the US overachieved that WC given their squad of players. If you really want to use an objective measure, just look at the US' results compared to Belgium & Portugal soon after the 2014 WC.
The closest thing to an objective measure we have are the rankings based on overall results. Rankings based on transfer market value and player profiles have consistently proven less reliable. But as far as the US over performing both rankings and expectations in WC14, I agree. For whatever reason, WC14 was an exceptionally good tournament for Concacaf's top 3, with Costa Rica in particular shocking everyone (me included).
Well, on this one FIFA will prevail. Senegal will make it to the knockout stage and not the by ELO highly rated Ecuador. I'm not getting tired to repeat it. Ecuador will be the worst performer out of CONMEBOL we have seen in a long time.
Nah, I was firm on that all the time. Tbh back then I didn't thought much about my predictions like I do now. The constant changing of picks is a result of overthinking things. It might lead to a better result or not. We shall see.
2014 was held in the Americas. Not only CONACAF did great but also CONMEBOL. That might be part of the reason why CONCACAF had great success that year.
Talking about rankings, this is how I would rank the 32 teams at the World Cup right now. 1- Brazil (A) 2- France (A) (but liable to flame in Qatar) 3- Argentina (A-/A) 4- Portugal (A-) 5- Holland (A-) 6- Spain (B+/A-) 7- Croatia (B+/A-) 8- Germany (B+/A-) (yet risk early elimination in Qatar) 9- Denmark (B+/A-) 10- England (B+) 11- Uruguay (B+) 12- Serbia (B+) 13- Switzerland (B/B+) 14- Senegal (B/B+) 15- Japan (B/B+) 16- Morocco (B/B+) 17- Iran (B) 18- Canada (B) 19- Poland (B) 20- Wales (B) 21- USA (B) 22- Mexico (B) 23- S. Korea (B-/B) 24- Tunisia (B-/B) 25- Ecuador (B-) 26- Saudi Arabia (B-) 27- Ghana (B-) 28- Costa Rica (C+/B-) 30- Australia (C+/B-) 31- Qatar (C/C+) 32- Cameroon (C)
Where is Belgium? How could you forget about KDB & Co? You don't have a 29th placed team. Makes sense as you left Belgium out.
My bad and fixed it as follows. 1- Brazil (A) 2- France (A) (but liable to flame in Qatar) 3- Argentina (A-/A) 4- Portugal (A-) 5- Holland (A-) 6- Spain (B+/A-) 7- Croatia (B+/A-) 8- Germany (B+/A-) (yet risk early elimination in Qatar) 9- Denmark (B+/A-) 10- Belgium (B+/A-) 11- England (B+) 12- Uruguay (B+) 13- Serbia (B+) 14- Switzerland (B/B+) 15- Senegal (B/B+) 16- Japan (B/B+) 17- Morocco (B/B+) 18- Iran (B) 19- Canada (B) 20- Poland (B) 21- Wales (B) 22- USA (B) 23- Mexico (B) 24- S. Korea (B-/B) 25- Tunisia (B-/B) 26- Ecuador (B-) 27- Saudi Arabia (B-) 28- Ghana (B-) 29- Costa Rica (C+/B-) 30- Australia (C+/B-) 31- Qatar (C/C+) 32- Cameroon (C)
I don't recall you having ever rated Canada highly in the context of the World Cup. I'm surprised you put them as high as 19th. What has made you changing your opinion on them? Your list looks for the most part pretty decent to me. As always some minor disagreements from my part but I still approve it.
Understanding the way rankings work I'm not surprised Ecuador is so high. My own rankings have Ecuador even higher than Elo at #13 (though they will go down after this recent window) They had some very good results in Conmebol qualifying. As my rankings is largely based on the level of opponents you play, and also highly rewards drawing (as opposed to fifa) Conmebol teams can very often be overrated, which I believe my ranking does, except for Brazil and Argentina. Their WCQ has by far, the highest ranked opponent you will play each match by average. Simply speaking they have on average the most possible points to gain each match they play, even more than UEFA. It's not even that those Conmebol teams don't deserve the points they get in my system, it's more that teams from lesser confederations don't get the opportunity to play for and win as many points as playing in the Conmebol WCQ. But the main reason Ecuador is overrated in my rankings is simply because Rankings cannot account for the massive advantages teams like Ecuador and Bolivia get playing at home at altitude. Ecuador simply cannot match the type of results they pulled off at home on the road or in neutral territory.
But you are talking about almost 4 years ago. Qatar then and now are 2 very different teams. No team at the WC has been consistently manhandled by other sides, and even poor against mediocre opposition. By any objective means, they are easily the worst side. By the same token I could say Cameroon who won afcon in 2017, according to your logic couldn't be the worst side.
It's been a while since they showed that form. If they can reproduce it now they will go well, but on more recent form they will struggle.
True, Ecuador is better at home, but that does not mean they are garbage on the road or at sea level. Ecuador has been in 3 world cups, their record in the first round is 4 wins, 4 losses, and 1 tie. So, they have played the average WC level teams dead even at "sea-level". For perspective, Ghana has a first-round record of 3 wins, 2 ties, and 4 losses in their 3 WC appearances. The US is 2 wins, 4 ties, and 3 losses in their last 3 appearance. IMHO the average difficulty of a first round WC game is less than the average difficulty of a road qualifier in South America. Ecuador's respective records seem to back that opinion. Also, Ecuador has played 5 games since the end of qualifying, none at altitude, 4 against other WC qualified/level teams, and have conceded 0 goals. I am not predicting them to advance, but I would not be surprised if they do.
Pretty good ranking, but I would rate both Mexico and Poland higher, especially the former (within top 14-15). I also personally don’t expect much from Canada despite Borjan being the Red Star Belgrade goalkeeper.
Neither Mexico nor Poland have shown much to even necessarily merit the rating I have given them. Poland's rating is bumped by virtue having Lewandowski and by virtue of their physique in a group where that can matter. In Mexico's case, its pedigree makes me rate them as high as I have. Otherwise, ordinarily I wouldn't rate a side that has recently lost, inter alia, to Colombia, Uruguay (3:0) and Paraguay, tied Ecuador, and which suffered losses to both Canada and the US in the qualifiers.
I have a question. Did you also saw most of these teams in action in the last couple e of months or are you basing off your ranking mostly on results? I discovered that this month's friendlies of most ROW teams are online. I will try to chime in with my ranking soon once I'll have watched them.
I have been particularly focused on teams from the AFC as well as those from Group B but I have seen all of the rest in action at least once this year.
Just finished watching Canada-Uruguay. My perception of neither side has changed much. Canada showed especially in the first half some promising signs despite conceding twice. I was a little bit disappointed that they couldn't create more chances in the second half. They look to me like a side that is still very naive in these intercontinental clashes. They simply don't have the experience of playing outside of CONCACAF. I think we can expect Canada to put on a decent showing in Qatar but progression to the Round of 16 seems difficult. I think they will improve game by game in Qatar. They will get rather easily beaten by Belgium, lose in a close one to Croatia and on matchday 3 when they have nothing to play for and have already two matches in a very high competitive environment under their belt they will play their best game and defeat Morocco. Belgium and Croatia are too seasoned to drop points to a team that is still very much 'green'. That's how I see Canada's campaign unfolding.