I'm not sure that 4 points from these next two games is even that good. These are must-win games to me. 6 points or GTFO.
The pundits think that Columbus needs 47 points to make the playoffs. That's 11 points from the final 24 available. Caleb ought to do something big and take advantage of this home stand to get 6 of those. But let's be honest - a week from now we'll be saying we need 11 points from the final 18 available and looking for Caleb to do something big and win those points from road matches. Caleb will say the team has been unlucky.
The sunshine brigade would tell you that the Crew has only lost once in their last 14 matches. The only problem is that they've played a grand total of four games during that stretch against teams that are currently above the playoff line. Conversely, FCC has only lost once in their last 13 games, but 10 of those 13 games were against current playoff teams. Of the teams bunched up in that cluster between 6 and 11, I'd argue Columbus has had the second-worst form of any team, ahead of only New England. I think we're ********ed sadly. Too many draws against bad teams the past few months in what was a very favorable stretch of opponents. The only two surefire wins left on the schedule imo are Chicago and Charlotte.
With you all the way here. I took a look at the 538 MLS Playoff Predictions page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/ I think that it's quite a bit more favorable than how I see things with 66% of making the post season. As I said, we've got 2 games vs Miami that has played some very good ball lately and MTL who is one of 4 or 5 top teams in the league right now. We couldn't manage to get 3 points against any of our last 3 opponents. Three of our next 4 are against playoff teams which we've beaten 1 of (2?) all season. I'd say we might need 7 points from this set. I certainly don't want to go down to needing 3 points vs RBNY on the last day of the if they're playing for a home playoff game and we're needing a win to get in at all.
I don't buy their models at all anymore. For instance, in just this week's games they have the Crew with a higher win probability against Miami than against Chicago. I know Pozuelo is out on Wednesday, but there's no universe in which Miami should be regarded as the easier matchup.
We are IN PLAYOFF POSITION, with games in hand. We control our own destiny. The numbers aren’t the problem. We are.
Massive!! Oops. Force of habit. But you are correct. We are in control of (and will likely ruin) out own destiny.
Crewster point standings through Sunday: EAST Philadelphia 12 Montreal 10 NYC 6 NYRB 2 Orlando 0 Columbus -3 New England -5 Miami -6 Cincinnati -7 Atlanta -9 Toronto -9 Charlotte -10 Chicago -12 DC -20 WEST LAFC 15 Austin 12 Salt Lake 3 Nashville 0 Minnesota -1 Dallas -2 LA Galaxy -5 Portland -6 Seattle -6 Vancouver -8 Colorado -10 San Jose -12 Kansas City -13 Houston -13
I know i ask this every freaking year, and i'm sorry that I can't remember, but can you explain this to me... again?
Such blasphemy. How can you doubt someone who puts forth such a master class guarantee in the pre-season? (Narrator: he knew in February that he might be leaving town at season's end).
Wednesday, 8/31 PHI 4:1 ATL CLB 1:0 MIA MTL 0:1 NYRB NE 0:0 CHI TOR 2:2: LAG NYC 1:2 DC ORL 3:2 SEA Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 57 16 +40 (5, 72) MTL 49 15 +7 (6, 67) NYRB 47 13 +11 (5, 62) NYC 45 13 +16 (6, 63) ORL 42 12 -5 (6, 60) CLB 39 9 +6 (7, 60) MIA 36 10 -11 (6, 54) ------------------------------- CIN 35 8 -3 (7, 56) NE 35 8 -3 (6, 53) TOR 34 9 -5 (5, 49) ATL 33 8 -6 (6, 51) CHA 32 10 -10 (6, 50) CHI 31 8 -10 (6, 49) DC 25 7 -27 (6, 43) DC left the spoon at home for a night and beat NYC. Surprise, surprise. That allows the Red Bulls to move up. Philly is the first team in the East to clinch. Our win over Miami gives us a three-point lead with a game in hand. Wins tiebreaker doesn't help us, so that edge is important. Toronto drops 2 points at home. That hurts them, as they only have 5 matches left. Orlando came from two down to beat Seattle in stoppage time. Yikes. Not good for us, but also, what the hell has happened to Seattle?
Toronto is out. They basically need to win out and get help just to have a chance. I think it’s down to NE and Cincy, more than likely Cincy.
There are only 5 teams with positive goal difference in the east. Philly at +40 has the same goal difference as the other 4 teams combined. They are a scoring machine lately.
So the point is to even out scheduling differences? i.e. if a team is higher in the standings, but has had more home games, that might not be indicative of how well they are actually doing?
I think it's more that the teams with positive scores can win on the road as well as at home. The Crew in 2020 wasn't good on the road so we had a mediocre score in the Crewster standings.
It's hard to remember that the Crew are actually the second best defensive team in MLS, with only 31 GA. Philly has TEN LESS THAN THAT. In a parity league like MLS, for a team to be that good defensively, you would think it would be because a style that sucks the life out of games and they wouldn't score that much themselves. They're +40. Yikes. Although this certainly helps: 13 - @PhilaUnion outscored D.C. United, 13-0, in two meetings this season, the largest goal difference by one team against another in a single @MLS regular season (prev. record +10, multiple teams). Lopsided. pic.twitter.com/Jh2zBr7Ag7— OptaJack⚽️ (@OptaJack) August 21, 2022 2019's LAFC team set the MLS record with +48. Philly is +40 with five games left. It could happen.
I can’t go so far as to say they’re “out” yet. They have the tallest order, because they have the fewest number of games left, but they’re only two points below the line. Not to mention, they might be playing the best soccer of any of the teams in that little cluster. You’re PROBABLY right, but I’m skittish about breaking out the shovels yet.
I'm doing this out of obligation -- not enthusiasm. Saturday, 9/3 CLB 0:0 CHI NYRB 0:2 PHI CIN 2:0 CHA Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 60 17 +42 (4, 72) MTL 49 15 +7 (6, 67) NYRB 47 13 +9 (4, 59) NYC 45 13 +16 (6, 63) ORL 42 12 -5 (6, 60) CLB 40 9 +6 (6, 58) CIN 38 9 -1 (6, 56) ------------------------------- MIA 36 10 -11 (6, 54) NE 35 8 -3 (6, 53) TOR 34 9 -5 (5, 49) ATL 33 8 -6 (6, 51) CHA 32 10 -10 (6, 50) CHI 32 8 -10 (5, 47) DC 25 7 -27 (6, 43) The biggest news from today's games is probably Cincinnati jumping back into playoff position. That's significant, as most of the teams in that giant cluster finally have the same number of matches played. Philly with another +2 on GD. They're eyeballing the record. NYRB lost. They only have four matches left, while everyone they should be interested in all have six. They're currently third, but could fall down a couple spots easily.
It’s certainly accurate to call the mass of clubs hovering around the playoff demarcation line a “giant cluster.”
Sunday, 9/4 POR 2:1 ATL DC 0:0 COL TOR 3:4 MTL NE 3:0 NYC Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 60 17 +42 (4, 72) MTL 52 16 +8 (5, 67) NYRB 47 13 +9 (4, 59) NYC 45 13 +13 (5, 60) ORL 42 12 -5 (6, 60) CLB 40 9 +6 (6, 58) NE 38 9 0 (5, 53) ------------------------------- CIN 38 9 -1 (6, 56) MIA 36 10 -11 (6, 54) TOR 34 9 -6 (4, 46) ATL 33 8 -7 (5, 48) CHA 32 10 -10 (6, 50) CHI 32 8 -10 (5, 47) DC 26 7 -27 (5, 41) Still no eliminations, but DC is on the brink. Atlanta and Toronto don't have the fork stuck in them yet, but definitely have the fork handy. New England just seems to refuse to die. While NYC seems quite willing to keep doing nothing.
That would mean there's four spots below the line and six above. Because we're currently above, I think we're getting in, but there won't be any breathing room. We dropped some absolutely critical points last week.