2022 D1 Women's Soccer Tournament Discussion [R]

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cachundo, Nov 12, 2022.

  1. cachundo

    cachundo Marketa Davidova. Unicorn. World Champion

    Feb 8, 2002
    Genesis 16:12...He shall be a wild ass among men
    Manchester United FC
    Created this thread dump for any discussion(s) re: 2022 D1 Women's Soccer Tournament. Did not want to clutter the prediction thread nor the RPI thread, created by cpt.

    Results thus far:

    Friday, Nov. 11

    Vanderbilt 1, No. 5 Clemson 0
    No. 7 Mississippi State 2, New Mexico State 1
    No. 1 Florida State 3, Florida Gulf Coast 0
    No. 7 Georgia 2, Samford 0
    No. 4 Michigan State 3, Milwaukee 2 (F/2OT)
    No. 6 Ohio State 1, Bucknell 0 (F/2OT)
    Xavier 4, No. 6 Tennessee 1 (F/2OT)
    No. 7 Texas 3, Texas A&M 1
    No. 8 LSU 3, Lamar 1
    No. 1 Alabama 9, Jackson State 0
    No. 3 Arkansas 6, Missouri State 0
    No. 6 BYU 3, Utah Valley 0
    No. 5 TCU 3, UTSA 1
    No. 1 UCLA 4, Northern Arizona 1
    No. 3 Stanford 6, San Jose State 0

    Saturday Nov 12:

    No. 5 Georgetown 1, Hofstra 0
    No. 4 Northwestern 3, SIUE 0
    No. 1 Notre Dame 5, Omaha 0
    Memphis 1, No. 2 Saint Louis 0
    No. 8 Santa Clara 1, California 0 (F/2OT)
    UC Irvine 2, No. 4 Southern Cal 0
    No. 6 Harvard 2, New Hampshire 0
    Brown 1, No. 5 Rutgers 0
    No. 3 South Carolina 2, Wake Forest 0
    No. 3 Virginia 4, Fairleigh Dickinson 0
    No. 2 Duke 4, Radford 0
    No. 2 North Carolina 5, Old Dominion 0
    No. 4 Pitt 1, Buffalo 0

    Things that stand out to me:

    UC Irvine over USC; after last year upsetting UCLA. Punching above their weight.

    2-seed St. Louis losing to Memphis. Never should have been a 2-seed, vastly over-rated by the RPI by their LOSSES, their best win was at home against Arkansas.

    Santa Clara - Cal is always a close contest, regardless of record.

    Continue the discussion(s) .....
    blissett, McSkillz and Nacional Tijuana repped this.
  2. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    I’m not surprised by St Louis being the first “upset” of the tournament. I’m sure the teams that saw them in their bracket were pretty happy that they were the 2 seed in their bracket

    A lot of really close games and some teams avoiding the upset. Ohio State and Michigan State both took it to overtime but finally found the go ahead goal on mid major teams.

    Pitt was in full control of their game but i thought they were going to have one of those games where they just couldn’t finish anything and would get caught on one counter. But pulled through with a goal with 5 minutes left
  3. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    Also no clue how NC State is a seeded team in this tournament and hosting a game. I don’t think they should of even been in the tournament
  4. Nacional Tijuana

    Nacional Tijuana BigSoccer Supporter

    St. Louis City SC
    May 6, 2003
    San Diego, Calif.
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ex-western NC guy here. Bummed about Clemson. Thought they were better than that. Pitt homer as well (lived there in the 00's). They were a mess back then but have become respectable, and finally have a stadium in town, on campus, which hadn't been the case.

    Portland look about to win over ASU. 3-0 right now, very late. Good for them. I had thought they had sunk back into pre-'02 mediocrity.
    Wildcatter repped this.
  5. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    Pitts soccer facility now is amazing!
    Nacional Tijuana repped this.
  6. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #6 cpthomas, Nov 13, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2022
    So far, five first round upsets according to the Committee seeds:

    Memphis over #2 seed St Louis
    Brown over #5 seed Rutgers (4th most likely first round upset)
    UC Irvine over #4 seed Southern California
    Xavier over #6 seed Tennessee (3rd most likely first round upset)
    Vanderbilt over #5 seed Clemson

    Five upsets are two more than were statistically likely for the entire first round based on RPI ratings as adjusted for home field advantage. And, two of tomorrow’s last three first round games are potential upsets: UCF @ #8 seed NC State is the most likely of all first round upsets and Virginia Tech @ #7 seed West Virginia is a reasonable possibility (7th most likely first round upset). Only Quinnipiac @ #2 seed Penn State seems highly unlikely to be an upset.
    blissett and DjibrilCissesMom repped this.
  7. Byu77

    Byu77 New Member

    United States
    Nov 21, 2021
    Surprised how thin in quality the PAC12 is with programs in decent to great soccer hotbeds that just can’t figure it out (Cal, Colorado, Washington.. even the AZ and OR schools to a lesser degree).
  8. Carolina92

    Carolina92 Member

    Sep 26, 2008
    Not surprised to see Clemson or Tennessee get bounced early honestly.

    South Carolina breathing a sigh of relief. The woodwork was working overtime for the Gamecocks in that one.

    Some more (hopefully) good games today to close out the first round.

    The North Carolina regionals (Chapel Hill and Durham) are definitely going to be the place to be next weekend.
  9. McSkillz

    McSkillz Member+

    United States
    Nov 22, 2014
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Andddddddd that’s why I’m glad UCLA didn’t get stuck with UCI again. I don’t know what it is with UC Irvine but they show up 1000 percent during the NCAA tournament and I’m glad we weren’t the only PAC12 team that got upset by them.
  10. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    Honestly i had never seen UCI play this season. Don’t get them a lot out here on the east coast but i was very impressed with them against USC. They play a very attractive brand
  11. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    One possibility is that the Pac12 is thin in quality. Another, though, is that the other conferences in the West -- the WCC, Big West, and Mountain West -- are much stronger than they get credit for and make the Pac12 look thinner than they actually are.

    According to both Massey and my Balanced RPI, the Pac 12 is the strongest conference in average rank, not the ACC.
    outside63 and NewbieSoccerMom repped this.
  12. Nooneimportant

    Leeds United
    Jan 12, 2021
    In an ironic twist, the team who hadn't won since September, but still got a home game ends up being involved in the only penalty shootout of the 1st round. Even if they had advanced, they still wouldn't have gotten a win.

    Here is the conference breakdown after round 1:
    Big 12 - 3-0-0 100%
    WCC - 3-0-0 100%
    Big East - 2-0-0 100%
    Ivy League - 2-0-0 100%
    Big 10 - 4-1-0 - 80%
    SEC - 7-2-0 - 78%
    AAC - 1-0-1 - 75% (UCF advanced on penalties)
    ACC - 6-3-1 - 65%
    Pac-12 - 2-3-0 - 40%
    1 Bid Leagues - 1-20-0 - 5% (UC Irvine)
    WAC - 0-2-0 - 0%
  13. Norfolk

    Norfolk Member

    Mar 22, 2001
    UP were mediocre before 2002? Are you kidding? They went to the College Cup in 94,95,96,98,2000 and 2001.
  14. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think NT meant post-2005.
  15. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    #15 Eddie K, Nov 28, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2022
    How did the committee do? someone will do a recap I hope? @cpthomas

    QFs were 1v3, 1v2, 1v2, and 1v2
    Semi has 3 1s and a #2

    Is that kinda rare to get it that right?

    Edit: I took a look and:

    D2 has #1,1, 2, and 6
    D3 is harder to tell but they have 2 Regional #1s. a 2, and a #3
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In the tournament prediction contest, rating systems division (which includes the Committee), the standings so far are close but in terms of consistency with results my Balanced RPI is doing best, followed by the RPI and my Pre-Season RPI, followed by the Committee. And, if you want to include my own predictions which are based on the RPI, the statistically expected number of upsets in each round, and the most likely games to be upsets in each round, it is the best of all in the rating systems division.

    All of the rating systems division are in the top 9, out of a total of 28 contestants, with the Committee at #9. So, the Committee is doing reasonably well but not great. (Last year, the Committee did the best of all.)

    If you take a look at the NCAA D1 men, it is a completely different picture. The Committee seeds and places its top16 in order. The matchups for the quarterfinals are:

    Unseeded v Unseeded
    12 v 13
    7 v Unseeded
    3 v Unseeded

    Translating this to the format the women use, the men have 1 #1, 1 #2, 1 #3, 1 #4, and four not seeded in the quarterfinals.
    Cliveworshipper and Heeligan2 repped this.
  17. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    #17 Cliveworshipper, Nov 29, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2022

    If you translate to the Women’s system you have to account that all the teams left would be seeded using the RPI.
    The lowest RPI remaining in the Men’s Bracket is 31RPI or a #8 seed using the women’s system. And most of the unseeded teams were ranked higher in the coaches poll than their RPI number. The matches left using the women’s seed numbers are:

    #6 v #8
    #3 v #4
    #2 v #8
    #1v #4

    what I thought was interesting was that two of the top four teams (#1 seeds if the women’s system were used) went out in their first match even though they hadn’t played in a week and their opponents had played on only two day’s rest and the top seeds had home field advantage.
    That tells me they didn’t get the top rankings right, or the RPI margin of error is grater than the way it is used.
  18. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    #18 Cliveworshipper, Nov 29, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2022
    It’s Astroturf. It was FIFA pro quality when it was installed in 2019, according to Pitt’s website. If it’s like other competition quality pitches it should be due for replacement soon to retain its FIFA rating.

    it is not currently in the fifa database as holding a current pro certification.
    https://www.fifa.com/technical/football-technology/resource-hub?Category=4tRGtRgphzJb8fXjxCUTp9&Country=USA&QualityLevel=FIFA Quality&Confederation=CONCACAF
  19. SpeakeroftheHouse

    Nov 2, 2021
    In general, even though the gap has closed a bit on the women’s side to include maybe 10-15 teams that could make it to the College Cup, the men’s side has far greater parity—probably due in no small part to having so many fewer men’s D1 programs than on the women’s side. You see upsets or near upsets on the men’s side that you would never see on the women’s. ie Bucknell losing to Syracuse 2-1 would be the equivalent of Manhattan losing to UNC in a squeaker on the women’s side. It would likely never happen.
  20. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    not sure about the Fifa ratings but the facilities are legit. Their coaches office look right over the field. the building that all the offices and stuff are in was completed a few years ago and the offices are legit. Also they have a massive players lounge that has a balcony that over looks the field. great place to catch a game if you can get up there. I know during the girls games a lot of the guys team are out on the balcony and vice versa. They also have a massive team meeting room that seats about 70 people with theatre style seating
  21. Enzo the Prince

    Sep 9, 2007
    CA River Plate
    Is it? It's turf with a gray cement parking garage directly behind one of the goals.
  22. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
    have you ever been there because there's no parking garage right behind their goal
  23. Wildcatter

    Wildcatter Member

    Sep 9, 2018
  24. Number007

    Number007 Member+

    Santos FC
    Aug 29, 2018
    on the mens side, players are being developed all over the world because there is a real professional pathway. on the women's side, the same schools that have a good academic history and good soccer will have the inside track on most US born players. Its no coincidence that schools who recruit internationally on the women's side tend to make quick strides.
  25. McSkillz

    McSkillz Member+

    United States
    Nov 22, 2014
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We BLUE. Go bruins!

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