PBP: 2022 CONCACAF U-20 Championships, Quarterfinals: USA vs. Costa Rica, 6/28 @ 7 PM EDT

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by TheFalseNine, Jun 28, 2022.

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  1. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Most good shots in terms of location are about .3 xG -- the chances of a shot going in are not nearly as high as people think. Headers are also discounted because they go in at about half the rate -- one of our better chances was one.

    The Alvarado shot was probably an xG of like .02.

    xG is primarily a measure of WHERE you took your shots and how many you took. The fact that Alvarado's shot was a screaming that would have gone in ... is not what it is measuring.
     
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  2. Kombucha

    Kombucha Member+

    Jul 1, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    A penalty is .75xg and it isn’t about the save but the likelihood of scoring with a shot from that spot on the field regardless of if it a screamer of a dribbler or hit into the 56 row 30 yards wide.

    Even a tap in from the 6 is like .85xG and shots outside the area are like .05-.02 xG. Good looks from inside the box that are not in the 6 are like .3ish.

    Of course being up 2-0 and bunkering while the other team searches for a goal is also going to result in a better chance for xG for the team chasing goals.
     
  3. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    A penalty kick, header to the inside post that luckily went out, Bradley's chest, and a couple long distance misses of the empty goal. We had probably more, but close.
     
  4. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  5. RefIADad

    RefIADad Member+

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 18, 2017
    Des Moines, IA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    18 and 19 year old boys doing stupid stuff is a universal phenomenon. :)
     
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  6. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The US won, and carved out plenty of chances, but on the counter more. Didn't control CM as well in this one. Didn't like Luna there (should be out wide) & Pukstas as CDM. Weak on defense and in possession. Varas made some questionable calls in how he set up the team, but it wasn't disastrous, and several individual performances overcame.

    The duo of 11 Yanks and Tactical Manager have produced extra dog crap analysis for this tourney. They're just narrative fitting machines. Everything's on the technical-athlete continuum. There are virtually no other factors. And in most cases they default to you're an athlete if you're in MLS & technical if you're based in Europe. Even after today they're trying to sell Pukstas as one of the most impressive prospects in this tourney and Sullivan super limited. Total jackwagons at this point. Anyone who takes their analysis seriously still are noobs or massively biased.

    On to another WC. I didn't think it was in much doubt. The upcoming game with Honduras to make the Olympics was always the likely stumbling block. The performances in the last 2 u-20 cycles against them where we won in pk's and by 1 is not going to cut it at Honduras' house. Got to play better or get lucky. It's about a 40-60 I'd say. I'm a believer in history as a guide. History has shown to use it as a guide. For this particular team, if they're undone, I figure it'll be defense (got fortunate to get away w/ some mistakes today) and going too soft in CM w/ types like McGlynn, Luna, & Pukstas. Edelman-Alvarado-Clark (miscast as wing today) may get the job done.

    If we had available Slonina, Che/Henry, Vargas, & Gutierrez; it'd swing to 60-40 to overcome the past and the strength Honduras has shown this time around.
     
  7. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    Alvarado might be the toughest player on the team, Aaronson and Sullivan are also pretty tough, and surprisingly the same three are the best technically.
     
  8. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  9. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd add Clark to the group to round out the 4 best prospects here. Clark's looked much worse as a winger in his career. But he's pretty tough and technical. Does need to work on off ball movement, which contributes to him being invisible. Off ball movement is where Sullivan thrives. Someone not as nuanced may not appreciate that relative to a Clark. But Clark's frenetic & Paxten's bro used to have the same problem of lack of touches. Look at him now.
     
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  10. eagercolin

    eagercolin Member

    Metro
    United States
    Aug 25, 2017
    No?
     
  11. glutton4Bolts

    glutton4Bolts Member+

    United States
    Mar 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That point blank shot from Sullivan goes in at least 8 out of 10 times I think.... but at it's worst .6+. He was 6 yards out and had the whole goal in front of him. I stand by my statement. 1.5 xG is too low. Off by at least .5+.

    More importantly I think the US's quality/technical ability has been so far and above their opponents so far it borders on the ridiculous. Every team we have played seems to have one main play in their playbook... The English Championship Special... I.e. Hit the long ball over the top and hope for a lucky bounce inside the 18. IMO, we have come a long way as a Soccer Nation. We could easily lose to Honduras as the host nation but I wouldn't be surprised if that loss came with us playing better ball and just losing because the bounces did not go our way. That would be better than the last time we choked to Honduras to get into the Olympics. Our U23s were atrocious in that game. This was a big win... getting to the U20 WC was an absolute minimum for this tourney. Let's hope our boys have saved their best game for Honduras. The winner of the Finals doesn't even matter to me.
     
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  12. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    Hopefully. I really liked him pre surgery or pre sale whatever impacted him more. He's been lost on the left and having right footed Cuevas playing left back didn't help either. Still was better than Cowell. Unfortunately for him Luna was also much better than Cowell, and Aaronson and Alvarado are irreplaceable. So it's either Cowell - Clark or Clark - Luna.
     
  13. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Bizarre.

    Also, our "European players" were in MLS until ... 2020 for Pukstas and 2021! for Alvarado. This team has less than 3 years cumulative European development and it's clearly miles ahead technically than physically.

    Oh, wait, I forgot Mauricio Cuevas ... who went over in the last year. And would not exactly rate as our most effective or technical player.

    Again, bizarre.

    I think @ussoccer97531 's idea of moving Sullivan to the midfield might not be a terrible idea. He's been effective as an attacker, but we are small and pretty soft there. An Edelman/Alvarado/Sullivan midfield might not get completely mauled. Might not.

    Either way, Honduras is when I send out my absolute A team. Whatever that is.
     
  14. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    He might grow into Mathis/Blanco, but Adu/Carleton is way more probable.
     
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  15. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    We had 3 or 4 point blank shots saved in the 1st half. Should’ve been 3-0 or 4-0 after the 50th min.
     
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  16. glutton4Bolts

    glutton4Bolts Member+

    United States
    Mar 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Best lineup for me still has Luna in the midfield as I want him touching the ball a lot. I would probably go with Aaronson as a false 9... and I would want to try Clark in the midfield over Sullivan.

    Cowell - Aaronson - Sullivan
    Luna - Edelman - Clark
    Allen - Craig - Neal - Cuevas
     
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  17. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    My point is that that isn't how the math works. There are xG models that take into account goalie and defensive positioning, supposedly, but none of the public models do it.

    You can think that goes in 60% -- though worth noting the keeper saved it -- but a) that's not how they get that number even if they really should incorporate other elements and b) I do think we all overestimate the % of shots put on target and underestimate keepers, etc.

    But yeah, it was a better chance probably than xG would tell you because of defensive positioning.

    Agree.

    I think if we lose to Honduras though, it'll be because we get outmuscled and outhustled. I love the skill, and I love the way we try to play as a team. But I don't think Costa Rica was dirty this game (until late), and I think we've got to add the skill and flash without losing the physicality and toughness. Great teams are both, and this team seems a little shocked to not dance around the Costa Ricans.

    We approach Honduras with that sort of arrogance, and we may lose.
     
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  18. eagercolin

    eagercolin Member

    Metro
    United States
    Aug 25, 2017
    100% agree, but I like how he plays (and his general vibe) so much that I'm proactively rejecting any reality where he doesn't turn out great.
     
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  19. Strikerdad10

    Strikerdad10 Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    I swear when I rewatch the brawl on DVR that Cade is throwing body shots to someones stomach right before he takes off running.
     
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  20. Strikerdad10

    Strikerdad10 Member

    Jul 22, 2005
    His best work of the night. I thought he was out hustled to a couple of balls that he had position on
     
  21. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    Yeah, this could have been 5-0 at halftime. That's not to say Costa Rica deserved to lose 5-0 or whatever, but their GK made some great saves.
     
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  22. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    Job done in qualifying. Obviously though thats a must, and we expect more. We were the better team, and it was deserved, but I thought we could've played better. It was a good test.

    Brady: He was solid. Didn't have that much to do, but did the job when called on.
    Halliday: He was good. Very quietly a good performance. A lot of people criticized him for being out of place in this game. Always a very uninformed take. His last three performances have been strong.
    Neal: Another that quietly was very good. It's the story with Neal almost every game. Quietly very good. If you watch closely though, he's one of the very best players on this team when you add it all up, if not the best.
    Craig: He was good enough. I thought his positioning was a little off a few times and just doesn't play gritty enough yet, but he was far from a problem.
    Cuevas: Got his angles wrong a number of times at LB. While he's not a disaster at LB, he's not completely comfortable at the position. The handball was plain stupid.
    Pukstas: He wasn't terrible and did have some good sequences (helped start the first goal), but you saw in this game a player who is not too comfortable in that #6 position.
    Alvarado: Really good once again. Key on both goals. The second goal doesn't happen if he doesn't dummy the ball to Aaronson. Ran a lot. Made a lot of important small plays.
    Luna: I hate to say it because I want him to succeed, but this is the type of game you worry about with Luna. An opponent that can challenge you, a team with some athleticism. If you sit off Luna or it's against a team that has little athleticism, he's great. A team that challenges him, he can be invisible.
    Clark: Pretty weak. Did have an assist.
    Aaronson: Not too active, but those goals were key. I believe both with his weak foot. Nearly had an assist to Sullivan also with a nice dribbling sequence and pass.
    Sullivan: He was really good once again. Had the assist to Aaronson, and was very effective at getting himself involved in attacking chances in the final third. The finishing wasn't there, but the keeper did make some nice saves.

    Edelman: Very efficient performance defensively. I'm glad he, like Halliday, has come back with a few strong performances in a row and is proving he's capable of playing for this team.
    McGlynn: Added little. Pretty mediocre.
    Cowell: Added some energy. Not that much else.
    Wolff: Very few touches.
    Tsakiris: Same as Wolff.
     
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  23. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    But, considering that he did make those saves, it could have been 1:2 as well. Or worse as every time Brady was kicking the ball that was an adventure. And now, when he is also dinged, I'd start Carrera without a doubt. Honduras will press Brady non-stop after watching the game. Carrera can't have worse foot skills I hope.
     
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  24. kennytt

    kennytt Member+

    LA teams, OC SC
    May 26, 2001
    Santa Ana, OC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Panama up by one...wow
     
  25. Strikerdad10

    Strikerdad10 Member

    Jul 22, 2005

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