U22 (2000 and younger) with less than 10 USMNT caps is what we are calling a youngster. Here are the previous winners: 2016 Christian Pulisic 2017 Weston McKennie 2018 Tyler Adams 2019 Sergino Dest 2020 Giovanni Reyna 2021 Ricardo Pepi Last year was the first split vote. Unfortuanetly, the #2 vote receiver, Yunus Musah has too many caps to vie for this award going forward. The top contenders, in my mind: Chris Richards Richie Ledezma Jonathan Gomez Matthew Hoppe Caden Clark Darryl Dike Konrad Joe Scally Tanner Tessman Gianluca Busio There are some others who will probably feature for the U20s this Summer but could break out for club or onto the flight to Qatar: Keven Paredes Cade Cowell Paxton Aaronson I think that is a pretty impressive list. Some other
There is literally a list of 100 guys that we can come up with. Consider Ricardo Pepi in 2021. His year started in March when he was NOT named to the CONCACAF U23 championships. By the end of the year he was starting WCQers for the senior USMNT and making a big-money move to the Bundesliga. So who knows? I have my eye on a couple of guys that we THOUGHT would break out in 2021, but didn't. My favorite heading into 2021 was Ledezma because he just seemed "on the cusp." If he's fully back from his injury, I really like his chances to make an impact at PSV. Some of these guys may be loaned elsewhere and that's where they state their case. Richie Ledezma (PSV) Konrad de la Fuente (Marseile) Bryan Reynolds (Roma) Owen Otasowie (Brugge) Taylor Booth (Bayern Munich) Who could come out of nowhere and have such a great season that they end up making the 2022 WC squad and a huge big-money move in the 2023 January window a la Pepi? There's a spot for a goalkeeper. 3rd goalkeeper after Steffen and Turner is wide open. Gabe Slonina of the Chicago Fire. Its always a reasonable bet to put your money on an FCD academy product. Three of my breakout favorites there: Dante Sealy (PSV) Jonathan Gomez (Real Sociedad) Justin Che (FCD-likely sold this window. Bayern?)
I REALLY do wonder how talent evaluators view this kid. We've already seen the rumor that Juve is interested. For me, this kid is a prime candidate for the 2022 award. He's going to be one of the best young players in MLS next season. He has a Polish passport................... 1479086215890706432 is not a valid tweet id
My (relatively) unknown candidates Chris Brady, 2004, Goalkeeper, Chicago Fire Jeff Dewsnup, 2004, Goalkeeper, Real Salt Lake Alex Rando, 2001, Goalkeeper, Las Vegas Lights John Pulskamp, 2001, Goalkeeper, Sporting Kansas City Michael Halliday, 2003, Right Back, Orlando City SC Kayden Pierre, 2003, Right Back, Sporting Kansas City Mauricio Cuevas, 2003, Right Back, Club Brugge Cody Baker, 2004, Right Back, Seattle Sounders Ethan Dobbelaere, 2002, Right Wing Back, Seattle Sounders Nathan Harriel, 2001, Right Back, Philadelphia Union Collin Smith, 2003, Right Back, FC Dallas Tayvon Gray, 2002, Center or Right Back, New York City FC Kobi Henry, 2004, Center Back, Orange County SC George Campbell, 2001, Center Back, Atlanta United Noah Cobb, 2005, Center Back or Defensive Mid, Atlanta United Jonathan Tomkinson, 2002, Center Back, Norwich City Jalen Neal, 2003, Center Back, LA Galaxy Casey Walls, 2003, Center Back, San Jose Earthquakes Brandon Craig, 2004, Center Back and Defensive Mid, Philadelphia Union Caleb Wiley, 2004, Left Back, Atlanta United Jacob Green, 2003, Left and Right Back, DC United Adam Armour, 2002, Left Back, Charlotte FC Curtis Ofori, 2005, Left Back, New York Red Bulls Daniel Edelman, 2003, Defensive Mid, New York Red Bulls Jeremy Garay, 2003, Defensive Mid, DC United Danny Leyva, 2003, Center Mid, Seattle Sounders Alejandro Alvarado, 2003, Center Mid, Vizela Noel Buck, 2005, Center Mid, New England Revolution Ozzie Cisneros, 2004, Center Mid, Sporting Kansas City Leandro Soria, 2003, Center Mid, Godoy Cruz Aiden Morris, 2001, Center Mid, Columbus Crew Juan Castilla, 2004, Playmaker, Houston Dynamo Reed Baker-Whiting, 2005, Playmaker, Seattle Sounders Brian Gutierrez, 2003, Playmaker, Chicago Fire Evan Rotundo, 2004, Playmaker, Schalke Jose Gallegos, 2001, Playmaker, San Antonio FC Matko Miljevic, 2001, Playmaker, CF Montreal Theodore Ku-Pietro, 2002, Playmaker, DC United Diego Luna, 2003, Playmaker, El Paso Locomotive Jorge Hernandez, 2000, Playmaker, LA Galaxy (not a youth) Griffin Yow, 2002, Winger, DC United Leo Torres, 2004, Winger, Real Salt Lake Andres Jasson, 2002, Winger, New York City FC Mario Penagos, 2002, Winger, Sacramento Republic Dante Sealy, 2003, Winger, PSV Eindhoven Tyler Wolff, 2003, Winger, Atlanta United Dantouma Toure, 2004, Winger, Colorado Rapids Federico Oliva, 2004, Forward or Playmaker, Atletico Madrid Missael Rodriguez, 2003, Forward, Chicago Fire Preston Judd, 1999, Forward, LA Galaxy (not a youth) Jake LaCava, 2001, Forward or Playmaker, New York Red Bulls Jackson Conway, 2001, Forward, Atlanta United Jordan Adebayo-Smith, 2001, Forward, Tampa Bay Rowdies Daniel Sebathu, 2005, Forward, Atlanta United Darren Yapi, 2004, Forward, Colorado Rapids Tyler Freeman, 2003, Forward, Sporting Kansas City
The young Canadian gk, Dayne St. Clair, took a step back after a meteoric rise during the 2020 season. Slolina's progress will be interesting to watch. He has to be one of the top candidates. Jonathan Gomez, were he to break through into La Liga, would be in a strong position. The there's Cade Cowell. He could have gigantic offensive year.
I'll take alumni of Dallas and Philadelphia, and ya'll can take the rest of the pool. My guess is our winner comes from one of those two places. I love Quinn Sullivan, by the way. I don't know if anybody has mentioned him. In our race to the first capped player born in 2004, its either going to be Slonina or Sullivan.
Yes, I've already declared my love for Sullivan. And I don't know if that's appropriate. He's not 18 for a few more months. In all seriousness, while I love Sullivan as a prospect, and could foresee a big club breakout this year, it's hard to envision how that would qualify him for this award still. Because it won't be in a big league. He'd have to go bonkers (20 g+a maybe) production-wise to neutralize that factor. Then when's there going to be time to break in to the NT before WC? At this point there's very few spots available. Any movement for players is going to be thru big clubs/leagues, out of desperate need (backup lb, backup 6), and from already being on the borderline. And given the WC is at the end of the year, entrance into it and any impact there will be weighted heavily. Some players I think could still achieve that are: Ledezma, Paredes, Gomez, Bassett, Tomkinson, etc. Scally and Dike would qualify, but they've arguably already been breakouts.
We can't say its not possible, because a player just did it. Ricardo Pepi was only 18 for the entire MLS season. Quinn Sullivan turns 18 in March, so will be 18 for virtually the entire MLS season. Pepi beat out players in our voting that were getting playing time in the Bundesliga, Serie A, and La Liga. Why can't another MLS youngster? At the start of 2021 there were zero caps for players born in 2003. By the end of the year we had Pepi, Cowell, and Gomez with caps. With callups for Clark and Paredes. So we move forward to the start of 2022. Who are now the likely candidates for 2004s? I think there are a bunch, led by Slonina and Sullivan. Amongst the players abroad the leading 2004s are probably Malick Sanogo (Union Berlin), Evan Rotundo (Schalke), and Kaile Auvrey (Lille). All dual-nats.
Firstly, Pepi had a mini club breakout during the playoffs the previous season. Sullivan was buried toward the end. Secondly, strikers have the advantage they can go on scoring barrages to pique interest regardless of league. It's harder to evaluate for 8's and wings outside top leagues/big clubs. They need more time and have slower integration. Finally, we had a desperate need for a cf, unlike those other 2 positions. Our depth chart is more fleshed out now. That's in part because we had a variety of competitions and friendlies at different levels. We're in crunch time now. We have final qualifiers, WC, & maybe we'll have a few UNL matches in-between. It's not the same opportunity.
I get it. I just think that of the 2004 field players in MLS, Sullivan is the MOST LIKELY to break thru. Partly due to his talent level, and partly because I trust Philly to give him the opportunity. Its up to him to take it. The two had very comparable seasons in MLS as 17 year olds. Ricardo Pepi 2020 season: 502 minutes; 3 goals; 1 assist Quinn Sullivan 2021 season: 539 minutes; 2 goals; 1 assist [Obviously, they don't play the same position.]
It's a nice problem to have when we have this type of prospect list for a breakout. I know I've said this before, and it's strictly my opinion, but for me a "breakout" player is one who isn't terribly well-known and then bursts onto the scene. The classic example of how I define "breakout" is Aaronson in 2020. Yes, those of us who really follow this stuff knew him. But his MLS is Back performance really established him that year. So for my criteria, that removes someone like Scally who had that type of "hey, I'm here!" type of half-season at Gladbach that Aaronson had in 2020. So for me, I'm always looking for those players who are just under the surface of the general consciousness. So players like Gomez, Paredes, Clark, Che, Slonina, and Tessman would be the types of candidates that meet my (admittedly subjective) "breakout" distinction.
Out of the Union's youth players: I'd say Aaronson and McGlynn have the best shots at having breakout seasons. Sullivan is a great prospect, and very talented, though I'm not sure where he exactly fits in the Union's lineup position wise. He's got a lot of competition for playing time. If they sell Mbaizo, Nathan Harriel would be one to watch as well at RB (though his USNT prospects prolly aren't that great considering the depth of talent there). He had a great game in the Eastern Conference Final.
One interesting thing I'm noticing so far is all of our winners were essentially uncapped prior to the year they won. The exception is Tyler Adams who received his first cap in the last game of the prior year. But that's still far short of the 10 cap criterion in the OP of most of these threads. I wonder if someone like Richards or Busio is starting for us in the World Cup and takes another step up at the club level whether people will consider them worthy of this honor or if the general impression will be that they already broke out the year prior.
McGlynn likely doesn't have enough physical talent to ever breakout from a USMNT standpoint, let alone this year. Sullivan has a better shot than him on that factor alone. I have some concerns about Aaronson in that regard, as he's not as physically fit as his brother. But it's less of an impediment in a creative role. And he is tenacious. Still think this puts him at best on par w/ Sullivan. IMO Sullivan is the best prospect out of the 3 because he's technical, athletic, driven, and seems to know the game well enough. Being the youngest and having the lowest spot in the pecking order are relative impediments. But the gaps aren't big and those are both can theoretically be negated.
I don't think it's harsh on either because their breakouts have been very gradual. That's partially their own fault. They could have seized opportunities better, whether it be Richards at Bayern or looking nervous initially w/ the NT. Or Busio not looking like he was up to snuff physically and speed of thought wise. It might be bad luck for Scally however that he broke out from a club standpoint in the last third of a year and then was integrated into the NT slowly. Though it still would have been tough to achieve the distinction out of timing. That is a factor in this. Could apply to Dike too w/ him getting injured at the GC, otherwise maybe he rivals Pepi for last edition. Now he's in the tweener/gradual breakout category.
Jonathan Gomez breaking thru at Real Sociedad and getting regular USMNT caps is the spirit of the award. That "feels" more like a breakout, and our voting tends to reflect that. I think Musah didn't do better in our 2021 voting because some thought he broke out in 2020. 2018. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. He's starting his fifth calendar year of being a first team professional. We leave it up to the voters, but many of us clearly wouldn't view Richards or Busio as breakouts for next year. I mean, Richards has started a full calendar year in the Bundesliga and has 6 caps. That includes starts in WCQers. He would have been over 10 caps right now if not for the injury that kept him out for the summer of 2021. I don't care if he wins the Ballon D'or in 2022 and is named to the Team of the 2022 World Cup. He won't have my vote. I mean, for Heaven's sake, Gianluca Busio will soon have played more first team professional games than John O'Brien did in his entire career. That's not a joke. He started playing for SKC in 2018.
Some candidates still not mentioned Well known: Bello, Ferreira, Odunze, Flach, Nyeman, Amaya, Perea, Cardoso, Sands, Giocchanni, Llanez. Less known but established pros: Tolkin, Cerrillo, B. Guttierrez, Atencio I'm sure there are many more.
If getting some caps and serious minutes with the USMNT is a big factor in this award, it's hard to see anyone who's not already somewhat in the national team pool winning it. With qualifying and then hopefully WC preparation, there's just not many games for unproven young guys to break in, unless something really strange happens (e.g., Taylor Booth somehow reversing course and breaking into the CM rotation with the 1st team at Bayern). Of course, if USMNT caps aren't a big factor in your decision making, the field is much wider.
I would also add Tayvon Gray as a strong candidate that maybe hasn't been mentioned. A 19 year old that literally just started an MLS Cup final for NYCFC. NYCFC academy................Joe Scally, Gio Reyna, James Sands. Sneaky, sneaky one of the best academies in the country. They may not have the quantity of others (FCD has had 32 homegrown signings), but the quality is high. The only big issue for Gray is that he plays right back. A deep position on the USMNT. Pretty good players like Kyle Duncan can't get a look with the USMNT. Another guy in that same situation is Michael Halliday of Orlando. An 18 year old that got minutes at RB last season. Sneaky good. But due to position, way off the radar. He's an 03. Based on our talent at the fullback positionon, I'm not sure he even makes our U20 team. Mauricio Cuevas and Justin Che are presumably our top 2 RBs that are U20WC eligible (although maybe we'll move Che to CB). By the way, fun game. I can name all 32 FCD homegrown signings. I'm currently working on being able to do it in order of signing. Not quite there yet.
It seems odd that these four are eligible when it seems like any of them could have WON for 2021... if they are eligible (despite already having broken out), Richards seems like the safest bet for 2022.
It is subjective to each person what a breakout is. Players, imo, can have multiple breakouts until they win the Ballon D'Or. If Richards is starting in the Champions League and with the US at the World Cup, that is a breakout over simply starting some games for a mid-table Bund team. Scally also has zero caps. If he is excelling in the Bund and on the plane to Qatar, there is a case. Busio is playing well and starting for a bottom table Serie A team. A $MM move to AC Milan or Everton or Arsenal, that would be a breakout to me. We will see. For some, they won't vote for these guys because they took a step already. 2021 was going to hinge on Qualifying and it did. 2022 is, hopefully, going to hinge on Qatar.
Slonina is built like he was assembled in a top club goalkeeper factory by goalkeeper scientists. It’s going to be all between his ears to determine at which level he ends up.
Since this award started, most of the players have been Americans who have exclusively played in Europe. The only exception was Adams. This year feels a little different to me and I see a preponderance of talent in MLS. Does anyone else see the same? Or am I off in my talent evaluation?