All very good points.. But European scouts can't just swing by practice or training. U17 Cups in Europe allows alot of European scouts to gather in one location and watch alot of games together to see if they are someone to pursue further scouting club games. Its a really good showcase for this to happen, but you're right not the only one and not the only way to be seen.
They aren't apples-to-apples comps, IMO. Reyna (Portugal) and Rotundo (France) have access to passports that allowed them to transfer to Europe at age 16. Hot (Albania) is not so lucky. If Reyna didn't have a Portuguese passport, he wouldn't have been able to move to Europe until the upcoming winter transfer window opens. The equation isn't NYRB vs. Europe. It's NYRB or risk sitting around for 18 months and then go to Europe.
Huh? Busio got 900+ minutes in 2019. In your other post, you mention that Busio "would be in Europe right now" if it weren't for SKC rejecting offers. I follow a lot of college basketball and basketball recruiting and this always reminds me of players whose goal is "to get drafted by the NBA." These guys often flop in the NBA and don't reach their potential. Players who want to be NBA All Stars or become the best player they can, succeed. The goal shouldn't be simply getting to Europe. That's a status symbol, and players who want the status never become great players. You are right that one size doesn't fit all. But 16-18 is a big development time period, and a player's priority should be getting better. Not punting a couple of years so they can move to Europe first thing. Especially when the team they'd sign with has shown willingness to move someone on quickly.
I think that sometimes the narrative about individual prospects doesn't fully account for the age differences of prospects when they sign their first contract in MLS. It feels like sometimes 18 year olds and 16 year olds are being treated as too similar, but in reality if players who initially signed at 18 and 16 aren't playing regularly in their second year, it really means something quite different! I've noted before that Bello to an extent became "old news" due to his injury-plagued 2019 and as such was a bit underhyped in 2020 compared to what he'd be if fewer people had heard of him prior to last season. If you weren't a prospect nerd who paid close attention to ages, birth years, YNT cutoffs, etc., would you have any idea that Busio is nine months younger than Tessmann? It's funny you mention this. I was just listening to an interview with Collin Martin on the BSI podcast. His career isn't over, but he's probably going to be in USL for the rest of his playing days. As he looked back at his seasons in MLS, he identified what you are talking about as a major problem for his career — he said he didn't have goals other than to "make it to MLS" and he thought that was part of the reason why his career stagnated.
Correct!! Player's focus should be getting better so playing professionally is a great environment. If that's consistently at the USL level that's fine IMO. I'm not against MLS, some of you may be under that impression. I'm just not easily fooled by the current narrative, yes there has been improvement in integration over the past couple years. Let's also put into perspective because of COVID 19, bubble and current circumstances teams and the MLS were almost forced to play some of their young players and give homegrowns minutes. A lot of these homegrowns let's not neglect the fact were developing and getting minutes in the USL at club's second sides during the ages 16-18. Prior to this 2020 season I saw a handful of homegrowns and looked at how many minutes compiled. Andrew Carleton Daniel Salloi George Bello Gianluca Busio Kortne Ford Jaylin Lindsey Jesus Ferreira Bryan Reynolds Sam Vines Cameron Duke James Sands Joe Scally I was looking at average minutes per season over the course of the 3 years/ seasons they have been signed. That being said a ambitious player's goal should not be to get to Europe. That is just one step... Being a MLS starter can be-step 1 (sure)/ Can be, however not mandatory IMO Get to Europe - Step 2 Be a consistent player for club in Europe (starter)- Step 3 Play for a club in top 5 league - Step 4 Be a starter and consistent performer for club in top 5 league- Step 5 Compete for domestic championship and in champions league - Step 6 Then you can take it from there ie: National team form and goals on the international stage and then progressing to push yourself to be the best and compete for being the best player globally
There were significant increases in homegrown minutes in 2018 and 2019, long before COVID. The selling of young players is what is driving the transition -- Alphonso Davies and Tyler Adams and a general push by the home office. COVID has helped in some cases, but it actually hurt in others -- the lack of international play and the inability to shuttled between USL and MLS killed Seattle's plan for homegrown minutes, for example. What a weird list. You've got a couple of 24 year olds in there ... some teenagers, and so on. American U20 minutes in MLS are up to 4% of total minutes despite Americans only being 37% of total MLS minutes at all. The 4% is much more in line with the rest of the world and starting to be closer to many more developmental leagues. U23 was 11%; I think that lags versus some (France, Netherlands) but is good versus other first division leagues. We've seen that you don't really need to take that progression. You can go from #1 to #4 or #5 right away if you like. As you've said before, the path can be different for each person. But as much as being a starter or player in MLS is optional, so is going to a European academy or a lower level European league. And doing that latter path is not necessarily better. Bryan Reynolds and Johan Gomez both played at FC Dallas and both have chosen different paths. They were both hyped attackers and are virtually the same age. Reynolds signed with MLS and Gomez raced to Portugal. Things are changing.
Just wanted to mention a point that has often been made by many different people at the ineptitude of Top Drawer Soccer. Here's the list of players Top Drawer Soccer (Travis Clark) liked for the U-17 cycle. Does anyone want to make a real argument for Batiste, Tanton, Avila, Alvarez, Ayala, Flax, Castilla, Jauregui, Brummett, Cisneros, Jenkins, Ngoma? I have never seen anyone knowledgeable suggest these players are currently good (or good enough at this point) for the U-17 team. If anyone wants to speak up and defend any of those players inclusion, please do so. I'm open to all arguments. There are players here I wouldn't list, but I know people with actual knowledge would list. Otherwise, it seems like TDS put together a list of guys getting professional minutes or players who've been YNT regulars for age groups that haven't met for nearly a year. That's not to suggest anyone in particular is right about who are the best players for this cancelled U-17 cycle, but I really think TDS has some nerve to put youth/academy content behind a paywall when its not clear they actually put real time into the work they put out. While there will be no U17 MNT World Cup in 2021, I dig into the play pool and some of the names to know.https://t.co/xgeNHAJonU— Travis Clark (@travismclark) December 30, 2020
Not a fan at all of TDS, their material seems watered down and lazy. But to your point, you mention that you've "never seen anyone knowledgeable suggest these players are currently good".. Who counts as knowledgeable? Have you seen these players play yourself? How many times to suggest you think they aren't good enough? For example, Tanton and Ayala, they don't play in America, how much has anyone actually seen? People on this forum were claiming Jenkins to be among the top 05's... whats changed? Castillas not eligible yet despite the US staff trying hard for and was one euro scouts took interest in at last years Florida Showcase. I agree that a few others listed probably aren't good enough. If one of these players is signed/transferred to a Euro club tomorrow (which could happen), does your opinion change? There is WAY too many opinions and hard statements on this forum based on hear say and not real scouting.
I claimed Jenkins to be a very high 05 but he’s fallen fast for me. He had really impressed me in his YNT games and his GA cup games but the more i watched him outside of those the less and less impressed I was. Then I started to watch more of Daniel Sebhatu (who I didn’t know was an 05 for a while) and Daniel’s stock has been rising just as fast as Italo’s has been falling. I am also concerned about how Italo was not moved up to the Atlanta 04’s unlike what Jonathan Villal and Sebhatu were. What also lowers him is the emergence of Marcos Zambrano, Steven Ramirez, and Isaiah Chisholm who weren’t on my radar a year ago and are all now The post was an overall pool post so a lot of names were included. I would’ve liked to see a full 23 because I actually liked his starting 11. When the pool gets larger the blatantly average names do start popping up, especially when the 04’s aren’t very deep at all
1. Who counts as knowledgeable is a good question. There aren’t that many that watch youth games, but David Kerr does, Matt Hartman does, I know Belz, Watke, Sanjiv watch youth games. ChuckMe does, Charlie Kennan does. There are also others here that do. I know I’m missing a few. I even think JR Eskilson at TDS isn’t half bad. Travis Clark, I don’t blame the guy. He’s tasked with too much work, and he can’t do it all. He was their college soccer reporter and I’ve never seen any complaints about that. Now you’re asking him to report on the youth game as well? I just don’t think in all his work I’ve seen over the years on the youth game that it appears he’s knowledgeable about it. 2. I have seen all of these players play before, and I’m pretty sure I’ve seen all of them play at least two times. I have seen some of them play a lot. I’m also not saying those guys are bad prospects. I’m suggesting they really don’t belong as U-17 caliber players at this point or close to it. 3. As to the question if anything changes if they transfer to a European club, I don’t know why it would. I said yesterday that I don’t think Reynolds is better than I thought months ago just because he’s now transferring to Juventus. He’s better if he plays better. I also actually heard recently about one of those players having transfer interest from a pretty good team in Europe. My opinion didn’t change about that player. There was no reason to. You aren’t automatically good enough for YNT’s because you play for a notable club in Europe. His list reads like a whose who of guys who were in favor with USSF in the last few camps of those age groups and players who got into USL games last season. That stuff matters, but it can’t replace watching these guys play. Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, but there are a lot of people who pay for TDS premium content based on their youth coverage. I think they have to do a better job with the product they are putting out. What I pointed out is the same stuff that others have complained about with their youth coverage. I was giving another example of it.
Some others who I know do as well are USA prospects, overrun midfield, USMNT East, Brian Sciaretta, and Bpet15. These guys along with who you mentioned (chuckme92, Matt Hartman, Zleb, Sanjiv, Watke, and Charlie Kennan rip) all have earned the right to have significant credibility in the youth game in my opinion. These are all guys who take the time to actually sit down and grind through youth matches which is not easy. Travis Clark does watch youth games and has a lot of connections he leverages to help build his knowledge but he is overextended in his work. Topdrawersoccer has put a ton on his and JR’s plate so I don’t fault him for not being able to put as super attention to detail work into the super young nats.
The role that Travis Clark kind of fills, but probably doesn't have time to do it, is that of a reporter on youth talent, rather than an evaluator. There's room for both, but most of the people you mention are amateur evaluators who watch film. That's great, and I think plenty of people can evaluate talent, so I mean nothing by the amateur. Some will be good, some will be not as good. What the role a top drawer should play -- and MLS and other youth academies may not be willing here -- is to get the inside scoop from the professionals. When baseball prospect lists come out, like on Fangraphs or Keith Law or something, they are often heavily weighted if not completely weighted by industry insider's opinions. They aren't always right, of couse, so there's still a place for an independent observer. But we are really lacking a National perspective on recruits. You get some from 3rd degree or something, but few teams have that level of detail. And I think it's super valuable and missing. FC Dallas clearly likes players like Bryan Reynolds and Dante Sealy more than most amateur scouts did ... and in the former, they were really right. Understanding what their choices are and why is super valuable. We don't have that national apparatus. That's what Top Drawer or other media should try to do. Or, if one of you amateur folks want a career, that's how a lot of people made their way into media. Start making contacts there and present an aggregate of opinions.
While not perfect, isn’t that kinda what we’re doing here? There are scouts, coaches and parents/players offering up their opinions in addition to the regular fans. You’re never going to get a super clear consensus because this country is too freaking big to be scouted that way. Video analysis is valuable, but nothing beats in person viewing.
I mean someone who would get feedback from FC Dallas, City, RB, LAFC, etc. There's a few trickles from the organizations themselves but it's rare. When Fangraphs puts out their prospect lists, they've talked to every organization's GM, scouts, etc. They are aware that can come with a bias, but I often find (not shockingly) that the professionals who do deal with players everyone identify talents earlier than the general public. There will always be that prospect that hasn't made the media that the GM is estatic about internally. Anywho, it's a gap in US Soccer coverage that I am sure will be filled when demand is higher than the BS soccer boards.
Are you saying thats what Clark gets? If anything, I think it's the opposite. He didn't mention anyone there that isn't already a big name. Have you ever seen him break youth news? It seems to me like they have a College Soccer Reporter posing as a youth reporter/analyst, and they are putting it behind a paywall. I don't even blame Clark. I think those who make the bigger decisions at TDS are not being honest with paying customers about the qualifications of the people providing the paywall content.
No, I'm saying that if I were Top Drawer, that's how I would build my lists and provide value. As press, they are far more likely to get input from the clubs. That's going to be more valuable than personal evaluations relative to the market. Baseball Prospecting is pretty big business. People get deep into their teams' Top Prospects, and fantasy players use the information to try and get an edge. A site like Fangraphs puts an absurd amount of time into their scouting reports, posting current and future summaries, writing up detailed scouting reports, etc. And incorporating a LOT of industry input. If you are going to sell prospect info, that's the type of info you should be trying to build -- and fangraphs is a technically free model. Soccer doesn't have the fanbase to support that yet AND the players are younger than baseball (but college basketball recruiting works in the younger ages much more) ... but honestly, this level of prospecting has been around for 10-20 years in baseball. Soccer America or Top Drawer Soccer really have nothing on the old Soccer America, which has now been joined by a ton more services. I think most of these started, like basketball recruiting systems, as college portals to sell to parents of recruited kids and coaches. Soccer hasn't evolved like baseball did. Here's the San Diego Padres Prospect List from last year -- https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-53-prospects-san-diego-padres/ That's the level that people should be paying for.
Do we know anything about Charlie Kennan? https://www.reddit.com/r/ussoccer/comments/khwu2q/charlie_kennan_of_us_soccer_twitter_has/
We know whoever operated the account had accurate sources and knew a lot about the YNT player pool from u15-u20. But obviously we’ll never get any input from him ever again
I feel for the players who don't get a chance to show at the international stage. Just follows suit from FIFA's announcement of cancelling the associated World Cups. Concacaf announces cancelation of U-20 and U-17 Men's Championships - SoccerWire