2021 offseason discussion

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by slycat, Nov 10, 2020.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    Let's be real, there are different types of owners to whom a lockdown poses different types of risks. As I suggested a little earlier this offseason, owners like ours are probably least well positioned to handle a lockdown much less normal operation. As it is we are designed to squeak by on modest revenue from modest spending. You then dry up a source of income.

    But what people forget is we aren't under FFP type rules, just cap stuff, and some of the teams are just subsidiaries of sporting conglomerates including football teams. The Seahawks and Falcons aren't going broke. And the Sounders and United are just an offseason revenue stream to keep the place open and drawing crowds.

    You're implicitly buying into the notion we SHOULD be run on a self sufficiency, financial spreadsheet basis, not a vanity team or conglomerate division where the owner is less concerned with strict profit and loss, or can spread it across other businesses and sports teams.

    For that matter, and getting into cynicism here, one debate regarding pandemic economics is whether to open your business when you know it will get clobbered. Libertarians tend to like to discuss it in absolutes. As do foolhardy business people. A smart businessperson, say, running a theater chain, who can afford or postpone his debt service, knowing no one will show up now, might have the bright idea of furloughing his employees and playing for time. I don't burn my cash and try and open to no crowds. I save my money and wait for the crowds to reopen. If I can afford my rent and debt I can do this. If I am up to my neck in debt and rent I have to be open tomorrow even if I have no customers and will doom this version of my business. Because the rent and debt will still be due. So you go through the motions of trying knowing you will lose.

    Anyhow one reason to get in a CBA fight might be akin to theories I have heard on Watson. You don't want to pay his contract. You pick a fight to end the relationship. In our case, you close for a while. A labor dispute sounds better than closed for covid, which might be more honest.

    Side point, at some point people need to realize that pandemic control is the ticket out. You can red state blue state this mentioning lockdowns but no one in any state is allowing full crowds for sports games. That is a pandemic response, not politics.
     
  2. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
  3. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I'd be absolutely be shocked if this happens because Tigres would want to be paid. He's started every game for them and he's under contract until the end of 2022. They will want to get a good size fee for him. If we got him he'd also probably demand a very large wage (DP territory?) that would mean the owners have to pay even more out of pocket.

    Nothing about our ownership group makes me think they will want to outlay the type of cash it would take to get him, even if indeed Tigres want to part with him.
     
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  4. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    I won’t believe it until I see it, but Parker and Salcedo with Figueroa off the bench would have to be the best CB trident in MLS. Perhaps would could finally see if Maric was legit.
     
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  5. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    Every year I watch the Club World Cup and wonder why MLS teams don’t employ more Korean players. For a budget team like the Dynamo there has to be some deals there after you take off the star player top layer.
     
  6. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    I don't remember Salcedo specifically but Tigres for defense is a pretty good stamp of approval, and 27 is a decent age, although for him to be of value you'd need to get the team together in a year or two.

    He could also play wide.

    I agree that he would cost. Fairly regular international who plays for a good club team. Not Messi expensive but not cheap. $5m+. (hah, I just guessed that and TM says $5.5m). There would also likely not be a sell on, as with Quintero. If you want that you buy them Elis' age or younger. And it would probably be like $2m or so salary as well.

    Mexican Fan Yeti bait.
     
  7. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    A-league, K-league, Indian league.
     
  8. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Because budget teams like the Dynamo (and to some extent all MLS teams) have a simplistic three tier acquisition system:

    1.) "Who's in the coaches rolodex?"
    2.) "Who can our existing roster drag here?"
    3.) "Argentine's are good at soccer, right?"
     
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  9. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    1357366988906123268 is not a valid tweet id
     
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  10. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    A-league and I-league suck big time tho. You’re better off with a domestic player than a Kiwi, Aussie, or Indian.

    IMO, K-league and J-league are a notch above.
     
  11. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    this is why drink.
     
  12. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo


    Translation: Not happening, but pretend that it might because this is generating positive reaction in the fanbase.
     
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  13. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    I routinely get in this discussion on Euro snobbery and USMNT selection, you are by nature picking above average players. A USMNT in English Championship is likely a good starter there, perhaps a team captain type. Some of our players nominally signed to EPL just sit or go on loan. We pretend the EPL guys might be better -- Yedlin gets endless chances -- comparing average teams. But the real comparison is PLAYERS. A really good Championship player probably overlaps a poor EPL one. Now, Pulisic is special but how many starting EPL types do we actually have? So the comparison doesn't really help because we have few exceptional players scoring off the chart. Maybe 5 guys doing real well at good teams.

    I say this because by nature we would be scouting above average players from these leagues. How an average player in such leagues compares doesn't help. That's not what I am signing.

    FWIW there is a MX league problem with J league players. As we're discussing on Salcedo, if they start, we would have to pay. J league pays well. This would likely leave us uncompetitive for elite players. We can then scout for bench/squad players like Elis was, the idea we find a diamond in the rough. But at that point we are in less "obvious" choices. Unless we spend out way out. At which point MX or J league can bid right back.

    I do think K-League is about Goldilocks, we've sent a player or two there who did fine (Mixx), they've sent a mixed bag here, decent league but no so expensive we can't afford the products. And I think A-league or India you might be able to outspend them for marquee options. They have limited budgets and 2 DPs.
     
  14. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Glenn’s tweet is awesome. Why don’t the Dynamo say they scout and track the EPL and La Liga too
     
  15. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2021...nference-roster-build-status-armchair-analyst

    Davis depth chart for the team.

    He has Lassiter penciled in as the starting CF (that's a bold prediction, but maybe). Also has Adams listed, but he isn't on the roster any longer.

    Based on what Ramos has said I think it will be more like

    Striker: Urruti, Ramirez, Lassiter Pasher, Rios

    I give the nod to Urruti over Lassiter, who I think probably features more on the wing. Also feel like Ramos just does not like Ramirez, so think he's gone for that reason

    Pasher is cheap depth, Rios is an 18 year-old Academy kid. I don't think either see the field much.

    LW: Picault, Quintero, Lassiter, Bajamich, Lemoine

    Picault penciled in as a starter purely because Ramos has talked about moving Quintero centrally. Ramos has called Picault "DP-Like" so it's hard to think he won't start him. Quintero still may figure here and actually start. Hard to tell.

    Bajamich I think is slow played to start, but maybe seizes a bigger role as the year goes on, particularly if either Picault or Lassiter falter.

    RW: Lassiter, Picault, Bajamich, Lemoine

    Lassiter assuming that Picault is starting on the left-wing. If not I think Picault gets the nod over Lassiter.

    If Lassiter continues to be ineffective we should see Bajamich and/or Lemoine push to replace him, but hard to think that Lassiter won't be penciled in as a starter. Ramos liked him enough to buy him.

    #10: Quintero, Memo, Corona, Jones, Palomino

    I don't think Ramos' tactics really has a #10 role per se. Ramos says Quintero may feature centrally. If that's the case he undoubtedly would be the midfielder that pushes higher into the attack.

    There's a litany of guys that would play second fiddle. Memo did a decent turn as an #8 last year, Corona and Jones are versatile enough to see time here too.

    Palomino was barely played last year and I don't expect that to change in 2021.

    #8: Corona, Memo, Ceren, Jones, Palomino, Castilla

    Corona will start somewhere in the midfield and he's probably best as a box-to-box guy. Memo outlined above did well.

    I really don't like Ceren, but feel like he narrowly still beats out Jones in the pecking order (maybe not if we're lucky).

    Jones really could do work here if he can showcase some talent. Problem is there are a bunch of guys that will probably end up with shot over him (justly or not) in Quintero, Memo, Corona, Ceren and even Boniek if they bring him back.

    #6 Vera, Ceren, Jones, Junqua, Hoffman

    Vera starts. Ceren is probably second fiddle.

    Hoffman was a midfielder and played here in USL, but he also saw time as a RB.

    Junqua is a guy you can toss in who will energetically run around the field and isn't afraid to be a physical defender. I don't think he's the most technically gifted player, but he had his moments in limited minutes.

    LB: Lundkvist, Valentin/Bizama, Junqua

    Lundkvist is the worst starter on the field. He is a defensive liability. Supposedly he was supposed to be a good attacking wingback, but he hasn't really done much there either (his counterpart at right-back Valentin, who no one heralds as a great attacking fullback is way better). Still expect he will start though.

    I feel like it is a matter of time before Lundkvist gets booted to the bench because he has been awful. If done you could see Valentin scoot over to the left-back position and then have an open contest at right-back.

    LCB: Figueroa (assuming re-signed), Fuenmayor, Bartlow, McCue

    Assumption is Figueroa re-signs. After that I think the pecking order is Fuenmayor, Bartlow, McCue in that order. Bartlow should have every chance to beat out Fuenmayor, who has been wildly inconsistent.

    McCue has struggled to stay healthy and really hasn't been a factor at either the USL or MLS level. Still young enough to turn it around, but I think this is a make or break year for him. Needs to hope that Bartlow and Fuenmayor both flop for him to see any chance at meaningful MLS minutes.

    RCB: Parker, Fuenmayor, Bartlow, McCue

    See above, but replace Figueroa with Parker.

    RB: Valentin, Bizama, Hoffman


    See LB. I expect Valentin starts here until Lundkvist gets yanked from the field. Afterwards this position is going to have a lot of competition because the nominal second stringer in Bizama has also sucked.

    This is one where I think they would be served by getting creative and throwing everything at this position to see if someone can stick. Memo, Hoffman, Junqua, Lemoine, Lassiter, Figueroa - more or less anyone.

    GK: Maric, Morton, Nelson

    I have no clue other than Maric starts and I don't see to much of a challenge for him. Morton has a more accomplished resume than Nelson does, so I give him number 2.

    I really don't see Maric getting benched even though I am not high on him.
     
  16. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo


    There is nothing official, but more sources (mainly Honduran media) is reporting that Boniek and Figueroa both reached terms to return. Not really a surprise there as they've both been rumored for a long time. This fills the last two open slots on the roster.

    Here is your 2021 Houston Dynamo Roster:

    Forwards (8) - Bajamich, Lassiter, Lemoine, Pasher, Quintero, Ramirez, Rios, Urruti

    Midfielders (9) - Castilla, Ceren, Corona, Jones, Palomino, Picault, Rodriguez, Vera, Boniek

    Defenders (10) - Bartlow, Bizama, Funemayor, Hoffman, Junqua, Lundkvist, McCue, Valentin, Parker, Figueroa

    GK (3) Maric, Morton, Nelson

    I've been beating this drum for a while, but the starting XI is not going to look younger (probably older net with Manotas gone), particularly if Quintero is in the midfield.

    2020 (from last game): Maric,(24) Valentin (28), Cabrera (27), Figueroa (37), Lundkvist (26), Lassiter (25), Ceren (30), Vera (24), Memo (24), Quintero (32, Manotas (25)


    2021 (Prediction): Maric (25, +1), Valentin (29,+1), Parker (27, no change), Figueroa (38, +1), Lundkvist (27, +1), Lassiter (26,+1), Corona (31, +1), Vera (25, +1), Quintero (33, +9), Picault (30, -2), Urruti (30, +5)

    Average age in 2020: 27.45 years old

    Average age in 2021: 29.18 years old

    Two years old, mainly driven by everyone picking up almost a year plus subbing Quintero in place of Memo.
     
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  17. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good crunching the age numbers. I would like to think that Lundkvist and Vera are not our starting #3(LB) and #6(D-mid) positions any more.

    Also, our FO went and scouted, then signed a player like Bajamich, who better be a starter before Lassiter. Then there is Urruti and if Ramos takes him as a starter from Montreal to a starter here in his plans.

    There is also the possible switch in tactics for Coach Ramos where he utilizes a three man back line instead of a four man back line so that we get this, a 3-5-2

    -----------------------------Picault--------Urruti


    -----------Memo--------------Quintero----------Bajamich


    --------------------------Ceren----------Corona


    ------------Figueroa---------Parker--------Valentin

    ------------------------------------Maric
     
  18. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I'm indifferent about Vera. No one will have a good time in the #6 role in Ramos' formation, but I think he has been serviceable. Kind of want to see Jones there because he looks a bit speedier and more physical than Vera. Also wouldn't mind seeing Junqua get more string there because he adds something just purely by just tirelessly attacking the ball even if he isn't the most physically gifted player. Still think #6 is Vera's to lose, although he might have Jones breathing down his neck.

    I think Lundkvist is the worst player on the XI by a mile, but I can't see anyone else starting at leftback. He'll suck and eventually he'll get pulled, but it's something that they are going to dither with.

    Also 110% convinced that Ramos will never change his formation. He is wedded to the 4-3-3 and he will not field anything else. Has more or less said as much in interviews with Davis.
     
  19. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    a simple reason they might not be buying salcedo is they are struggling financially in a pandemic and he would mean added expense without, for now, much added revenue. on paper it might sell some tickets but not until you can really sell tickets.

    either that or the focus is on a rebuild and new coaches and farm team for next season. (re branding, why not save it until then?) they basically acknowledge their focus is domestic for now. decoded, if anything happens it will be scouting and pre-signing for the summer or 2022.
     
  20. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #420 juvechelsea, Feb 9, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2021
    if you go with the vulnerable 433 with this bunch you are going nowhere. this is not the U20s, he doesn't get superior talent walking up to the park. this is the worst team in the conference and he wants to be tactically naive. we will attempt to entertain and continue to lose.

    the defense sucked. every single one needs to go. part of the dynamo problem in recent years is reifying mediocrities like a thirsty person at a mudhole when they hoped for an oasis. if you ever want out of the hole you have to demand better across the board and that doesn't include 65 year old boniek as fan favorite, or vera, or fafa, or the like. you have to start asking for darwin or elis in bulk.

    if vera was so awesome he'd drag us kicking and screaming out of last place. he is not that impactful and we are what we are. the constant critique of this team was getting killed on turnovers/the counter. that teams quickly got to the final line. who do you think is supposed to be mopping up glitches in the middle of the field?
     
  21. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    both boniek and figueroa needed to go. this is like ching year 20. you have ceased to get the value and are just paying for a name. figueroa went to crap most of last season and boniek had 0g 0a and hasn't produced much in years. setting aside "youth movement" and the age reality, it's a security blanket that never covered your feet and now is tattered. you are just holding onto your "b'ankie" out of sentiment and risk aversion at this point. we finished last in conference, what is the basis for risk aversion? that we might suck? already do.
     
  22. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    personally the salcedo rumors remind of pointless efforts after GDS and such before, no intent to do anything but offer the rumor in lieu of a signing. create buzz from doing nothing. the reality is salcedo is playing for tigres until further notice and we're not the only ones asking after him. so do those 5 teams all get to take credit for scouting him same time, so to speak?

    rumors don't play center back.
     
  23. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    The Salcedo rumors are a hilarious/sad attempt by someone in Dynamo marketing to latch onto a rare positive reaction in the fanbase.

    USMNT and El Tri players operate in their own stratosphere in MLS. They aren't quite in the same rarefied air as the EPL starlings (Rooney, Beckham, Gerrard, Lampard, Henry) or other world renowned guys like Pirlo or Ibrahimovic, but they're close.

    The only way we sign someone like Salcedo is if we either get him once his contract runs (assuming Tigres doesn't sell him before) or his play falls off a cliff and no one wants him, but us. Otherwise there is no way we pay the fee that Tigres asks for him and he seems like he could probably command a borderline DP salary.

    If he does ever want to come back to MLS, he is most likely to have his pick of cities. That means more likely than not he ends up in LA because that's where all the Mexican players want to play.
     
  24. Brian Gilchriest

    Eintracht Frankfurt
    United States
    Oct 3, 2020
    Personally, I'd love to have Salcedo here. He's a really good player, and our back line would be one of the best in the league. I don't think it would happen, but his contract with Tigres does run up this year, so if we can find a way to pay him it'd be NICE.
     
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  25. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I'm fairly sure that Salcedo's contract with Tigres runs through 2022.
     

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