2021 offseason discussion

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by slycat, Nov 10, 2020.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    falcao is 34, would sell tickets, but his game logs, while impressive production per game, reflect he can only stay healthy enough to play half the games. you'd get 1000 league minutes. the rate is then good but the total yield on half the games is like 5-10 goals. he has a few goals this season but also has barely played since november. the rate entices and maybe is an x factor if you make the playoffs. but he plays half the time and puts up late ching numbers for a lot of transfer fee and salary. and if we don't get some other players in do we make the playoffs.

    and that's best case on an older player bound to go "beasley"/"ching"/"senderos"/"figueroa" on us.

    i'd say between him and fafa and corona it would look like they are setting up a 17-18 old man team scenario. except those teams could rely on a young frontline and at least the first year a decent defense (before it fell apart year 2). and the window on a TORSO team is basically one or two years before they all break down same time and take you with them. so if that's the plan you need struna not just gone but replaced now. and a couple more decent defenders.

    i wonder if they learned the wrong lesson. maybe they think young players can't carry the team. the problem since 19 is talent, not that elis couldn't produce and try to carry us. 17-18 was decent not because elis wasn't the leader then too -- he was -- but because of the supporting cast. so if the idea is go back to 17-18, it was a core of young players with veterans in support -- not the other way around. the problem since then is senderos and machado and co. became struna and fuenmayor, and so on, and not that elis and manotas couldn't take us to the playoffs. they couldn't do it by themselves. falcao can't either.

    personally i wish we'd go more the elis model but i think the GM incompetence on making a profit on the transfers out might be hurting our confidence to pursue the wiser young selling team strategy thta gives us longer competitive windows and more upside. falcao is a name brand but manotas was good for 20 goals. just get more manotases. then sell them for the high offer on your desk.
     
  2. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Obligatory youth movement!

    I mean Falcao is Falcao though. He'd at least get some more butts in the seats, although I don't think it would be the wisest competitive move.

    I can't see this realistically happening, although I would be experiencing a great deal of schadenfreude if the starting XI actually managed to get older after everyone bought that the Dynamo were going to focus on youth and that Ramos was a good "youth" coach.
     
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  3. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    the problem with an old man team is if it works it works maybe one year. the 2017 supporting cast fell apart and we sucked after that. your window is maybe one year. and the players might have valuable names but no one is paying a fee for falcao or quintero.

    what made 2017 actually work was the big 3 of kids up top combined with a serviceable defense and alex. those kids lasted and produced a few years and were worth transfer fees. it's the GM's fault exactly what the numbers were.

    to me chasing names is a dumb idea on a budget. to me we would always be getting beasley a few years too late where it's misleading what we actually get. you pay a big salary for a player who plays half the games. manotas is a no name but he plays all the games and puts up 20.

    and like i said, my concern is they misread what happened. the one year we made the playoffs was "elis." i think it helped that he had a better supporting cast and some of that was old. but if the idea is we can't win or make a buck on young, that's jordan's fault. the kids should have netted like $15m and it's his fault who was around them. and while old man soccer might sell the tickets without elis' youth and production i don't know if we end up right side of the red line. without a much better defense -- definitely not.
     
  4. AcetheTigah

    AcetheTigah Member+

    Apr 6, 2005
    Woodlands, TX
    https://www.uslchampionship.com/news_article/show/1140712
    Good left foot with pace and technical ability. Not afraid to win the match himself. aggressive.
    Let’s see how he develops with his jump up to MLS.
    Tyler Pasher - Canadian so doesn’t take an international spot
    I think he would work well in combination with Memo and Lassiter
     
  5. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Terrific video clip in that link of our newest signing! Go watch his goal highlights folks, he appears to be mustard. Es solido.
    Thanks for finding that article Ace! Well done.
     
  6. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
     
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  7. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    My guess it'll be Fafa and Quintero wide with Lassiter/Bajamich and Pasher as their subs. He is coming in as Quintero's sub. He looks a lot like Bajamich -- a kind of Mullan/Martinez running at people taking them on, with better finishing -- and let's be real, both were second division players. Pasher was briefly on a SKC deal and they declined the option.

    Bajamich shows up as a DM also in Argentina and I will be curious if he is used some there.

    Lassiter kind of sucked. He had one game where he could finish. Otherwise he looked like a raw player who couldn't finish. I think the Galaxy had him about pegged with LAG2. We've kind of talked about the downside to making your development projects/signings players who have already had a failed MLS chance.

    To be fair I think they would probably be improvements over the usual RGV roster filler on the bench or in the reserves. But as with Fafa I think they think they are finding starters and "first guys off the bench" types in which case you're screwed.

    Like I said 20 times lately the problem is that the "XI" type picks are just a notch or two off where they need to be which colors how everything else looks. Or maybe everything is a notch or two lower. Many teams in these bench spots have some draft pick or HGP they developed who may even have star potential. Say, Busio coming off the bench.
     
  8. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
     
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  9. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Struna is now gone but that trade just adds to the attack and still doesn't address backline replacements. Montreal fans are super happy to see Maxi gone and to get Struna. Of course our last Dynamo/Montreal worked out well for them. Shocked, I say shocked, to see Jordan once again going back to his old team for trades.
     
  10. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    i was going to say when i was looking at where Fs seemed to slot that we seemed to have only one pro level CF. i want to say based on numbers Ramirez would start backed by Urruti but Ramos didn't use him very much so that may be backwards.

    strikes me as an improved forward line over how 2020 ended but not as good as how 2020 started (on paper) or the 2017-8 bunch. ie without a defense or midfield reinforcement not good enough to make the playoffs. Quintero-Urruti-Fafa is probably good for about 15-20 goals as a unit. last year we had 30 total and in the peak years the Fs were good for 30-40.

    this does cut against Ramos' theory you can't just remake a whole team very fast. if we'd declined or let run out more Ds this could be getting interesting.

    struna going is a cap-structural plus but the defense was already bad and they are running out of time to do anything about it for the spring chunk of the season. maybe the plan is bring back figueroa for another year. he is good for maybe half a season, you still need a second CB, and wingback is a mess.

    maybe the idea is sign someone in the summer but i think they would be overrating the offense and a shambles on defense.
     
  11. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    if the idea is parker and figueroa (temporarily) they are both excellent man markers but not very mobile. fuenmayor is glacial too. that poses a hinault-boswell problem trying to stay with running teams. you know, when we had a good defense but only if it didn't have to run more than 5 yards.

    you then have crappy wingbacks for defense purposes to help them out.

    to be sure i don't believe you'd clear out struna only to have fuenmayor start or mccue play. it would suggest 2-3 more shoes to drop.
     
  12. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #287 juvechelsea, Jan 18, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2021
    i could see them doing

    Quintero Urruti Fafa
    Memo Corona
    Vera
    Lundkvist [Parker Figueroa] Valentin
    Maric

    or maybe i am getting ahead of myself and based on the position references it ends up something like

    Quintero Urruti Bajamich
    Corona Fafa
    Vera
    Lundkvist [Parker Figueroa] Valentin
    Maric

    I'd do something more like

    Ramirez
    Quintero Urruti
    Pasher Vera Corona Fafa
    Figueroa Parker Valentin
    Maric

    when you have no defense you'd be better off defending in bulk through formation choice. pasher and fafa end to end like wingbacks in a 352. i'd also be trying to get the more dynamic attacking names on the field at the same time.
     
  13. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    should be noted that we gave up an international slot for a year in the trade. is that 7?
     
  14. AcetheTigah

    AcetheTigah Member+

    Apr 6, 2005
    Woodlands, TX
    :(Urruti sucks more as a forward than Struna as a CB. Although that’s not saying much because they are both no very good.

    Montreal comes out ahead if only slightly. Urruti is as useful to us as much as a pimple in the ass.

    Thanks again for another Matt Jordan special!

    watch him funk up another draft!

    :(
     
  15. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Wonder what happened to the Italian teams chasing Struna?

    My guess is that Urruti is a one season and done player. Contract runs at the end of '21, so meh. Probably worthwhile if Struna ran until 2022, although one wonders if the 2022 season was an option year, i.e. could have cleared Struna at the end of the season.

    As mentioned, Jordan does have a tendency to go back to the well with his ex-team that is a bit disconcerting. I get that he knows people up there, but every time he swaps something to him I can't help but wonder if he has bothered shopping around or if he just goes back to what's comfortable for him.
     
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  16. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo

     
  17. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    I am hoping the Dynamo pick CB Ethan Bartlow in the SuperDraft. He is the top CB in the class and signed a Generation Adidas contract. I guess FCC could snag him with the second pick since their defense is worse but the Dynamo need a CB that can be a day 1 starter. I fear if FCC pick him, they will just snag a highly ranked striker that isn't needed or some random dude they could have gotten in a later round (they did this last year).
     
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  18. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Conventional wisdom on the draft is you hit whoever the best prospect is regardless of position. Also hard to say what the Dynamo look like at the end of 2020 when you could see a lot of that frontline ripped down. Picault, Pasher, Ramirez, Quintero, Lemoine and Urruti probably all have their contracts run at the end of the 2021.

    Same can be said for mids and defense though.

    Contrary to what Ramos says, you can really turnover a roster if you want to.
     
  19. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    yeah, i just decided the trade was even dumber than i thought. you were saying things that made me think he's a "rental." eg one year left. occurred to me, was the idea urruti and struna both expire end of the year, and maybe urruti is cheaper, they get a theoretical serie a defender and we get a cheaper semi productive forward for a year's tryout. a new toy as opposed to having to wait out struna.

    but urruti makes $1m also (at least as of 2019) so it's a salary wash. i now see why montreal wanted him out so bad. that's a lot of salary for pretty modest offense. so we pretty much swapped out each other's frustrating players to each give them a second chance. we're hoping he's like dallas and they're hoping he's mr. serie a. we're both probably kidding ourselves.

    the danger to me would be that the dynamo tend to overretain players like this. 5g 2a on $1m salary is an easy decision but jordan is a stupid GM. even if he has a better year the real question should be what manotas or elis or younger option could i get with upside for the same $1m. and they would be at the front end of their career for a rebuilding team as opposed to an ageing player who might fall apart before we ever accumulated enough.

    re transfer to italy, i think if we had a decent $1.5m+ offer they would have taken it. what instead happened suggests we got modest offers and used them to push the trade along. otherwise in a cash draining pandemic and in a contract year i think jordan would take the $. he could go around saying a+b+c = 4m in transfer fees, which while weak sauce in context might fool an absentee owner. the offer had to be so bad he preferred betting on the one year trial that is a salary swap for an overpriced forward. "i didn't like the offers so i got rid of struna and got us an exciting forward," he tells the boss.

    the thing is at best this is still a step down from elis manotas quioto/quintero, and at worst fafa and urruti play like 2020 numbers and it's a nightmare. on paper it's one year but we are just dumb enough to extend him out into the future at $1m for something like 6 goals.

    not good but my best hope on this is we suck again, they clear house, and we have more objective people deciding their 2022 fate. swapping out parker for struna might moderate our problems a little but it won't be good enough a defense for playoffs. and while we'll score more than 30 it's a downgrade from 2017-20 offense. so i don't see this going anywhere which means they all get fired at which point i almost hope they have a lazy 2021 and the new GM can work with a stripped down team he can build as he sees fit.
     
  20. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    The 2021 MLS SuperDraft starts on Thursday, January 21, at 1 pm CST.

    Houston has the #3 pick in all 3 rounds.
     
  21. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Added Martin Vasquez as an assistant coach
     
  22. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    1351645816839090176 is not a valid tweet id
     
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  23. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    This move makes me happy. I will even say good job Jordan. You did it. They may not need a CB in the draft now. Though the defense still needs upgrades if possible.
     
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  24. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Well, tweet deleted now. Guess Lester may have jumped the gun.
     
  25. tex0313

    tex0313 Member

    Dec 17, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    what was the early report?
     

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