2021 offseason discussion

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by slycat, Nov 10, 2020.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2020/0...d-bundesliga-hamburg-mls-major-league-soccer/

    this reads like he held out for a potential promotion incentive (that those who have seen how the movie ended now know didn't manifest)

    he is reasonably young (28), led the NT in goals in 2018 and probably should still be appearing except his club situation, and has scored on high quality regional and global opponents

    to me the question would be if FCC retains rights and would have to get its beak wet -- and after a further year of suckage even worse than us there is no way he wants to play for the worst team in the league -- if you think we are dysfunctional.....

    he would also cost real money

    but to me he's like christian ramirez, true target, underrated, likely productive, would be motivated to show GB up
     
  2. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
     
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  3. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo




     
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  4. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Takeaways from that I guess is that he's not really satisfied with the forwards he has, CB (obviously needed, particularly if Struna walks) and that they're making moves. I don't know how to feel about the "making moves" comment because part of me really hoped that they'd stay pat on this would be a prelude to the team selling. On the other hand, they really need help if they are going to compete.

    The third tweet is hilarious. No mechanism where you can just get rid of guys? There are several. For starters, no one forced them to exercise 10 contract options (that's Ceren, Fuenmayor, Junqua, Lemonie, Lunkdvist, McCue, Nelson, Palomino, Vera and Lassiter).

    You also don't have to extend offers to players (Hansen), or negotiate to renew out of contract players (Boniek, Figueroa).

    That is 13 players that could be moved with no effort (note: not suggesting that all of them should be, but).

    Beyond that there are things like: Mutual tear-ups of contracts, intraleague trades, sales of players, loans, etc.

    In short there are plenty of mechanisms to do this. Admittedly you might need to pay a transfer fee or trade some assets away to get a player in the league, but how is the former really different than any other soccer league or the latter different from any other U.S pro-league?

    Edit: This is bumpkis frankly. He had a lot of opportunity to turn over the roster if he wanted to. Issue is that they didn't want to because of some mixture of Ramos liking these guys, having to pay to replace them, not having any youth ready to step into these positions, etc.. This roster could look completely different, but they instead brought back the starting XI minus the piece they sold in Manotas.
     
  5. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
  6. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well this goes against everything I’ve ever heard @juvechelsea say so I assume that Tab is just wrong

     
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  7. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
  8. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    if there is a rational explanation and not just laziness or stinginess, the stuff i could think of would be either we are waiting for a MX merger to justify spending, or conversely, we are intent on staying cheap waiting for MLS to get so big it splits, and then chase MLS.2.
     
  9. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    https://www.houstondynamofc.com/pos...-fc-exercise-2021-contract-options-10-players
    https://www.houstondynamofc.com/pos...c-transfer-forward-mauro-manotas-club-tijuana
    https://www.houstondynamofc.com/pos...rotected-player-list-2020-mls-expansion-draft
    https://www.houstondynamofc.com/pos...ee-picks-2021-mls-superdraft-presented-adidas
     
  10. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Correct!
    Fantasize on offseason moves when there is talk of actually turning over our old roster for a better one. Errr!!!
    But then I am reminded of that old saying, don't piss on my hat and tell me it's raining!!!
     
  11. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #261 juvechelsea, Jan 13, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2021
    i mean, by my count, if we had "done nothing" and declined all options, then sold mauro (and not reupped valentin), that leaves just 9 contract players.

    (1) Mateo Bajamich (who I will believe is joining us when he shows up),
    (2) Homegrown midfielder Juan Castilla (reserve),
    (3) defender Ian Hoffmann (prospect),
    (4) goalkeeper Marko Marić,
    forward Mauro Manotas (sold),
    (5) forward Darwin Quintero,
    (6) forward Christian Ramirez,
    (7) Homegrown forward Danny Rios (reserve),
    (8) Academy alum and midfielder Memo Rodriguez,
    (9) defender Kiki Struna and
    defender Zarek Valentin (re-signed).

    3 of those 9 would then be HGP or U20 type signings. 6 senior slots. how many of those DPs?

    maybe his argument is practically speaking it would be hard to dismantle a team that far -- or perhaps even further by asking struna to tear up his deal (i get the arguments against, but we can try) -- and then rebuild it all immediately. but this does not convince. we are already last place in conference. it's not like the veteran slapped together team is competitive. it sucks. at which point there is plentiful history of local teams tanking to get the first draft pick, stripping to the studs, then rebuilding around the high pick eg watson JJ correa.

    to me it's a justification for mediocrity. attempted. not convincing either. it sounds like what i think they do which is slap together enough veteran talent to make it competitive for the last playoff slot. for fear of getting really bad. but then with the freedom of a stripped down roster you can build over 2-3 years from the ground up and maybe get good.

    i have watched the astros texans rockets do this too many times to believe him. it would get really bad for 2 years but be progressively built up beyond where it was free of veteran loser contracts. and as i hinted with the structural analysis, he sounds clueless about the league.

    bears reminding this is year 2 of his MLS coaching career, he lacks experience, and he's being encouraged to defer to jordan i bet. "jordan knows the ropes." and then i think his system itself is naive. personally i'm not sold he has a clue. objectively this is as bad as we've gotten and if i was a coach in this league i would be demanding more personnel control and not deferring to a GM digging my MLS HC grave at the first stop. he's being set up where in 21-22 offseason after another bad year that builds nowhere he gets canned along with jordan.

    i'm also not sold that his double 8 theory is any more effective than a 10 bought with too little money. is there any difference between signing Corona and having Martinez? it might actually be regression because you expect a 10 to produce some assists to stay employed. up until last year martinez would have been more productive than corona. which is not defending martinez but saying this is not actual progress and might be worse. like hanging our hat on ching and calen carr. that's going backwards, maybe go buy manotas and elis. ditto back. ditto keeper. you can take a bad thing and make it worse.
     
  12. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    if you're going to suck at least start moving the cap structure to a place where you can actually rebuild. kind of like if you want a youth movement quit signing 30 year olds. to renovate your house meaningfully you probably have to commit to significant demolition. if you won't let them swing a sledgehammer then all it's going to be is a thin layer of paint over what already dissatisfied.

    i could understand if we had "altuve" types make them foundational and don't tear down that far. who do we have that you would build around for 5 years? they sold all the young stars. at which point why are you scared of clearing out the retirement home players and filler. jesus. cause it might get bad for a bit? what is this exactly?
     
  13. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    i mean, let's be real, there is no way this is a winner or likely even playoff team in 21. so the horizon should be being the best we can 22 and beyond where that changes, if you keep around pieces to make 21 slightly less embarrassing that would keep you from doing anything in 22, what is the point. i realize struna would likely collect his checks and take another year, but by 22 you could have 3 new DPs and turn over most of the roster that finished last.

    beyond the veteran buying spree of 17 we have literally no clue how to compose a playoff team. not even championship. playoff. we were handed a legacy team and in the 3 DP era we are cheap and clueless. encouraging them to maintain a core of losers to slightly save face is pointless. chase the first draft pick. chase the first allocation. buy 22 year olds. quit buying 30 year olds.

    to me the people interested in propping up a veteran team would be jordan and ramos with jobs on the line, and ticket sales people. personally my theory was this should have been torn down last summer since no one was watching covid games in person anyway.
     
  14. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, James Harden was really all-in on Houston as his home, right?

    Thought this was a good observation about our GM. I forgot about left-wing sponsor-hating Joe Holland

     
  15. AcetheTigah

    AcetheTigah Member+

    Apr 6, 2005
    Woodlands, TX
    Thanks for posting this tweet Westie - I can remember how much I studied that draft and had such high hopes only to get totally God Smacked how incompetent Jordan was. It was at that point I knew we no shred of hope left for fielding a great team. I think this is when I finally resigned myself to drop my season tix.
     
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  16. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    *rey* repped this.
  17. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    maybe basic common sense can come back like draft a GA player next week to save cap room

    we used to joke about Kinnear's quirks but compared to this trash he's getting a MacArthur genius grant
     
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  18. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    selling struna would be a godsend but even that suggests the "he would never accept a mutual tearup" is bull
     
  19. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    acquired = we paid a fee?

    the way i read "natural left footed" and "going to contribute" Pasher is the projected LF sub

    occurs to me this means Memo is a MF now
     
  20. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #270 juvechelsea, Jan 15, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
    my guess where they are going

    Maric
    Bizama Fuenmayor Struna if not sold Lundkvist
    Vera
    Corona Memo
    Fafa Ramirez Quintero

    Bajamich
    Lassiter
    Pasher
    Ceren
    Hoffnann
    Junqua
    Valentin
    Nelson

    think Jordan is vastly overrating that offense and the defense is outright crap

    what i would do

    Maric
    Valentin Junqua Ceren
    Bajamich Corona Vera Memo Pasher
    Quintero
    Ramirez

    Bench: Fafa Bizama Lundkvist Hoffmann Lemoine Lassiter Nelson

    361, wings fall back into 541 on defense

    we have no defense signed and there's no point to naming 4 just to run 4 out to fill a formation

    so use the wings like in a 352

    get quintero forward and central

    we're going to ship goals but the ability to either crowd the defense or the midfield allows us to defend in bulk and simply crowd out attacks, and the formation gets more attackers on the field

    sheer bulk helps swiss cheese midifeld defense

    moving quintero middle gets you a creative engine

    and then hopefully Jordan's swashbuckling second division wings can separate from MLS level defenses
     
  21. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo


    They paid a fee that "could rise to $50k" based on incentives.

    Struna I'm honestly shocked that:

    A.) Anyone would want him

    B.) That he'd actually be willing to go

    I guess he has some unique value to these Serie A/Serie B bubble teams because that's where he has plied his trade for most of his career? Only thing that makes sense.

    For B, maybe I don't know what top of Serie B/bottom of Serie A wage structure looks like, but hard to think that he can pull in the same amount. Maybe I underrated how much he cares about actually seeing the field/getting out of Houston.

    Whatever the case, I just hope that the Dynamo/Jordan don't try and get cute about the transfer. By all means let Crotona and Empoli bid against each other, but this isn't a situation to be playing hardball. Reality is that we badly need to clear him off our roster.
     
  22. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    to me you sell struna or torres for any amount you can get, for soccer reasons.

    to me the attitude on elis was right, the valuation and execution was wrong. ditto manotas. there were substantial offers. we overvalued the players and then when it blew up inexplicably took "torres money" just to get them out of town. manotas did fall off year 2 -- though i wonder if it was morale on wanting a transfer -- but elis was still producing well when we took a pittance. that was two eff ups and not just one. no one was willing to give more than $1m? then wait another window.

    the players' value is ultimately willing seller meets buyer. our valuations kind of forgot that. a player you wish was worth $8m is not worth that if the high offer is $6m. i kind of feel like i am watching a greedy developer on million dollar listing turning down every offer when he has the market mispriced in an economic crash.

    side note i worry that the last bad deal positions you as a perceived sucker next deal. if you don't get $6m for elis (chasing $8m) and instead get $1m then let's give them a lowball for manotas and struna and so forth. they're suckers. start low. if you sell him for $6m maybe the offer takes you more seriously. which as it stands would have been a franchise record. is cameron still the transfer record?? wtf does that say several deals later.

    similar dynamic with the texans. if they get fleeced for nuk then what do you offer for JJ or watson.
     
  23. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    struna would have value back home for the same reason we took him sight unseen here. i got made fun of for pointing out his brother couldn't stick here. "but look at his resume." as with coyle, MLS might be seen as ok and maybe they don't actually watch the tape hard, sign him off the overall resume, serie A/B, MLS "starter." i kind of thought that's what we did. sign a resume. so why not others.

    and he has played there a while before. and they then figure out he sucks same way we did, after the fact. like coyle got a couple more chances and seemed to be the same mess each time.

    also worth noting players get a % on transfers and that might offset a paycut if greed is still in the equation. takes less $ on the paycheck but gets 15% of the fee. and gets out of a situation where the coach wants him replaced, which might start to hurt his continued value.
     
  24. slycat

    slycat Member

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
     
  25. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    side question

    how broadly/aggressively do we market our transfer players? do we shop them? or do the players tell us where they are going, agent sets up the destinations?

    mexico might have been the worst and least lucrative possible move for torres who was coming off a 20 goal season. it was home but he had a track record. surely a 20 goal guy is worth more than a million someplace. and god forbid that might coincide with a better soccer home as well. "why don't you try spain or someplace different?" and maybe we get more than $1m.

    similarly, manotas to mexico, while that is a lucrative league, they look down on us. wasn't the big offer from russia? think outside the box.

    similarly, struna to serie B would almost be a reflex.

    i also find it hard to believe, considering continuing productivity, that elis was worth no more than $1m this year.

    boavista for elis is the only one that surprises in any way. but then they paid 1/3 what they did for cannon, who while i like him is not a dominant regional player.
     

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