i also think the UCL minutes statistic is misleading. (1) they tend to favor league over UCL/cup ball. UCL is often handled like cup soccer. playing a lot in cups may reflect being second choice or marginal. just like USOC here. so what are the league minutes like? "steffen." city backup, rare league minutes, but racks up cup minutes. (2) i'd also be curious how many of the minutes you cite are from a short list of players eg pulisic mckennie reyna steffen. if we have 4 guys "playing" and so do "they," then us having different minutes is not a big distinction. USSF likes to talk about how it's like 10 total but a handful actually play. the others are picking up splinters or on loan. so the real "quality" argument would be like how many actual players are seeing those minutes. otherwise what you're doing is exaggerating the impact of the short list. horvath and weah get swept along with pulisic. they are not in equal career situations. they might be better off out of UCL-land. (3) if italians who tend to stay at home are spread across the serie a, then the nature of the UCL will exclude many from playing UCL each year. italy has 4 UCL spots. only those 4 teams make it and can earn UCL minutes. but the others are still serie a. vs the US is a half expeditionary team and can thus have players on several different UCL teams exceeding the italian or english league quota. we can simultaneously be earning slots in france, england, italy, belgium, etc.
last point, you are such euro snobs you have clearly overlooked the indicator of CCL participation. with 8 foreign players per team and a cosmopolitan league -- as well as the potential to make it playing in MX -- this is not an abstract point. it is interesting that as foreign player limits have gone up and up a fracture has occurred between the league elite and the NT. historically one could assume if DC or LA did well, they would have a swath of the NT as well.
For our award, Hoppe is the real contender here. Although he may drop down the pecking order should he move with Schalke to Bund2. 🇺🇸 Gio Reyna and Matthew Hoppe names on the Bundesliga Top 10 U21 list for the season!👏 Congrats to them on a remarkable campaign!https://t.co/6BGaGX8afV— Yanks Abroad (@usmnt_abroad) May 26, 2021
I don't think there is any greater indicator of where we are at the moment than we had a 20 year old kid, play almost 1500' for a Bundesliga team, lead that team in scoring, and he is not even talked about much here or anywhere. He is not in the top 23. Amazing.
It was such an amazing surprise. He wasn't actually scoring for Schalke II before he got the call to the first team. Schalke had purged all of their forwards (basically just cut Ibisevic) and needed SOMEBODY. It'll be interesting to see where he goes from here. ..............because he did score 5 of his 6 goals in one two week stretch when he burst on the scene. Then it seemed like the league figured him out. One goal and one assist since late January.
At the end of the European season, this competition seems wide open. People have had months where they come on then drop off. Chris Richards, if he can get healthy, has emerged as a CB playing at a level beyond everyone but Brooks. He could be starting the first WCQ'er in September and most of them after. This time last year he was a reserve player that made some first team benches for cup games. Brendan Aaronson is playing so well, he might be the 12th man for the USMNT this upcoming CNL and have a major impact in WCQ'ing. I don't think it is crazy to think he could move to the Bundesliga this Summer. If not, he will probably move in December. Dike I think is going to have his breakout stalled by Orlando. Hoppe has 1500' and 6 Bundesliga goals already. Schalke might sell him back into the Bundesliga. Who knows if he is scoring for Stuttgart or the equivalent. Can he get into the USMNT though? Yunus Musah will have a new coach who might play Musah correctly and more. He looks like a key starter for WCQ'ing. I think there are going to be many plausible winners this year. It will probably come down to how much impact in qualifying this Fall a player makes.
For me Chris Richards is the frontrunner at the moment, and by a pretty substantial margin. He just doesn't play a sexy position for which we can quote stats and such. Even if we consider Aaronson eligible (which some dispute), Richards and Hoppe played in a significantly better league this season. But we do this by calendar year, so we're only halfway thru. [We do it by calendar year because when we first started, 98% of our candidates were based in MLS. We've gotten to the point where that doesn't make sense.]
Is not that we don't rate him. Is because we don't have a good grasp of his game because of where he plays. Could he look 10X better if put in a better team? we are hoping he could. He is either going to have to change club team or get a call to the national team for us to get a better read on him.
Because he cooled off. Because GB seems to be staggered by a few months from when he sees something to when he acts. It's like he already sent out the e-vites for something months from now, and can only invite you to a later party. It's odd to me because you'd think someone neck deep in spreadsheets and obsessed with form would make more of a snap inclusion on players chosen as Shiny Object. In other words, he should have made "March." Ironically by now he's no longer flavor of the month but gets the reward as though he is. Re the U21 thing, what you're missing there is a player at a tougher team like Bayern (eg Richards) might have a tougher time cracking the lineup and thus be missed by an analysis based on league play rather than talent. In contrast, a relegation dweller might be a good place to find opportunities at a younger age but then sitting on the cliff edge competition wise. I also think if you watch his goals it's a lot of offsides line played into open space. There's not a lot of combination play or him outwitting people ball to feet. In that sense, like the opposite of Sargent. To be clear, he was pulled up from Schalke II where he wasn't scoring much, had the flurry, then went back to not scoring much. That shows promise but also suggests maybe you should be back on a II team or playing in B.2. Like he was accelerated ahead early on a bad, desperate team, and maybe needs some work. To me it's like a minor leaguer who gets called to the show, homers in his first two games, but can't hit a curve and fades to hitting .200 with no homers since. He can go work in AAA on hitting a curve or we can naively leave him in the majors hitting .200 and see how long til he gets washed out.
I thought Richards was the best defender of the U20 bunch and find it absurd I am watching Dest and others pass him by. That's confusing talent with career progression. He was sought by an elite club because he was esteemed above the others. We then foolishly favor the second tier guys that Ajax could get, but then runs out faster. Same thing with Soto. He basically got punished for signing in Germany when he's good everyplace else. Part of this, to me, is we need a longer term, less form-roller-coaster, sense of player talent. Your talent doesn't change if a coach benches you. I thought Klinsi's first cycle he was good at simply "thinking what he thought" of players. "I don't care if he's in college, USL, on a II team, I like the kid." He'd then run them out there for decent time periods in a friendly and see what he had. Even Pulisic got to play pretty early in his career. Right now we lag the club promotion of players which means we've delegated scouting to the club managers, some of whom are then fired that season for getting it wrong. I thought I hired you to be our coach, not Lampard or Favre. What do "you" think?
It's a fake argument because often enough you can set a team goals record on a lousy version of the team. Manotas had 25 goals in 2018 and 16 goals in 2019 for the Dynamo, setting team records. We missed the playoffs both seasons. On that kind of team the system can break down and players may be allowed to freelance. A more coherent and successful team typically has more scoring players to share the burden and a system which moves the ball around. A player may be expected to hustle more on defense and do the little things, which then perhaps take the edge off your stats. I also think it reflects a bit of goofiness to be seeming to seek out players on losing teams. I am trying to win. I want players who score the big goal in the tough game, who make the tackle to preserve the result, or who do the little things.
Do you? You repeatedly want to get rid of a locked-in starting CB on the Bundesliga's #4 team, which had the second least goals allowed in the Bundesliga last year. Better than Bayern. Seems like Brooks is a big part of a winning, strong defensive team. But since he screwed up 4 years ago (and yes, he did have a poor qualifying then), he's out, right?
Add World Cup veteran, with a WC goal to his name. The only reason that John Brooks isn’t my automatic captain is that he seems very reserved, soft spoken, “just let me do my job” type personality. Nothing wrong with that. But I might want someone who is a little more energetic and outspoken to rally the guys if we’re down and need that extra push. Hence, Weston McKennie is my captain of choice - over Adams, due to injury proneness.
Of course it can work both ways. An average player scoring tons of goals in a weaker league and can't score against top teams. Here we have a player that we think is good but he hardly gets chances to score because of a lousy team. Ok then, Let's see how he does with our national team against weak opponents and then a stronger opponent. Then we will have a better read on his game.
Richards was in the U20 WC best 11 team. In our team, He was 1 or 2 best player between him and Paxton.
The calendar works in two ways. Captures the whole MLS season. Also, most of the 18-20 year olds are emerging in German leagues and either moving up in the winter break or transferring in the winter. Adams, Reyna, Pulisic, Aaronson, McKenzie all came out of the winter transfer window or break to move into first team contention. Richards got his loan in the winter window and Reynolds his sale. It is the preferred window for MLS sales. The USMNT also starts a yearly cycle with January camp. Although, probably not in 2022.
To tell the truth, he looks pretty good. I hear him described as a slow poacher who has been on the end of some lucky passes. What I see is a kid with a good first touch, can dribble some, is ice cold facing down a goal keeper, and makes very well timed runs into space. I think we are all sleeping on him and looking for reasons not to be interested. Berhalter has only now called him into his first camp. I'm also starting to think differently about these horrible teams. Every now and then, they will play well. For whatever reason, the whole team just has a good day. Schalke did it a few times. Werder Bremen a few times. Sometimes it is in the Cup, facing inferior competition. What happens on those days? Hoppe had multiple goal contributions in the two wins Schalke had. In a game where the team was functional, he was outstanding. Once it was in only 30'. Likewise, in the few games WB were very good, Sargent scored or was very goal dangerous. It is a baseball cliche with prospects, if they show a skill they own a skill. Is the ceiling for Sargent or Hoppe what they showed in those games? Or is that the floor if they were on a good team?
He's an enigma for sure but yeah, I think people may be sleeping on him a bit. To me, he looks to be better than anybody in our entire pool with the ball at his feet in front of the goal. He almost had another one last Saturday against Koln. Ball looked to be headed for the far corner but the defender got a desperation toe on it for the deflection. It wasn't blind luck either, Hoppe is very aware when he gets in scoring position, and that skill doesn't grow on trees.
Hoppe seems to make excellent runs behind the defense, and he has finished well when he's gotten a few chances. He's scored on three great through balls and I believe jumping on two loose balls/rebounds. I think the reservations around Hoppe are justified, though. While the runs he makes are a very repeatable skill, and valuable, finishing tends to be a pretty streaky skill for a LOT of players. Even someone as talented as Pulisic -- he goes on strong finishing runs and then doesn't convert much for extended periods. He's a strong presser, by most metrics, but I haven't seen him function (in my limited viewings) as an effective target man or player in the build up. Schalke is so dire that it's really difficult to tell if he's the type of lead the line scorer who not only makes great through ball runs, but also great runs on crosses, and also makes runs that draw the CBs, around etc. Basically, is he Zardes but actually finishing (which, I know people hate Zardes, but a Zardes with finishing skills is a really good lead the line striker), or is he something less than that. He's young, he will improve, and I'm excited to see where he goes. But getting almost all of your goals in a short run, then losing your starting spot on a terrible team does bring up questions.
Over the totality of 2021, Richards has been better than Hoppe. Hoppe scored 5 goals in a 2 week stretch. One was a hat-trick against a Hoffenheim defense in complete disarray (which Richards helped to completely stabilize upon his arrival). Hoppe scored one other goal the rest of the year. In fact, he only started 2 of Schalke's last 8 games. I just think overall, over the course of the year so far..................Richards was superior in his position than Hoppe was at his. If Hoppe doesn't leave Schalke this summer, and stay in the big time, then that may cut his challenge short for our award. By the way, I'm not criticizing Hoppe here. Being in 2nd at the halfway point is a good place to be.
Depends on how you define breakout. Richards was obvious. He bossed the U-20s, got sporadic play time for BM, played with the the BM II team and just needed a chance to shine. Now I think he should be given full credit for not just playing but playing really well for Hoffenheim. Hoppe came out of nowhere. Literally 3/4 of this board, full of US prospect nerds had no idea who he was. He played his ass off for a team that was quite frankly dysfunctional. Coaching carousels, substandard teammates, poor tatics, etc. It's very difficult to look good on a horrible relegation team. Hoppe at times did that, despite all the problems. I won't have an issue if Richards wins. He's a huge success story and #DTID, long may it continue, but if I had to vote, Hoppe for me. Then again I'm pretty damn bullish on Hoppe till he proves me wrong.
For a 700 minutes minimum played, Hoppe was--- 2nd in xGChain per 90 on Schalke Schalke 04 xG stats for the 2020/2021 season | Understat.com
Yeah I agree with you to a large degree. At this point, I would rate him behind Sargent in every aspect of the game except finishing and his off the ball movement, and I will concede that we are still dealing with too small of a sample size to really make any definitive proclamations about his long term finishing. He did cool down after his initial hot streak but my recollection was that Schalke went through a patch of games where there were almost no opportunities for him, and the benching coincided with a coaching change. This my recollection at least, I could be wrong. The goals he has scored however, have generally been extremely impressive where he exhibited a ton of composure in front of the goal. They were not fortuitous tap ins. I guess my view is that it's getting harder and harder for me to be dismissive of them. The one thing that does give me pause was his lack of scoring at the lower levels. That has me scratching my head more than anything. In any event, hopefully he gets a fair shot with the Nats this summer as I think he has earned it. We will see what he does next year whoever he lands.