News: 2021-22 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road To São Petersburgo

Sevilla and Betis both looking headed to extra time, West Ham leveled in first half, Betis just tied things up in last minute of regulation.

Edit - Lyon are through with the draw, and both Betis and Sevilla are in Extra Time, Sevilla already begun in London Stadium.

 

Down goes La Liga in two extra time games, West Ham and Eintracht Frankfurt both score late to advance.

 

With the return legs all done I am updating what I posted yesterday about Europa odds and computer predictions pre-draw:

NOW UPDATED as to the Europa League stands per the bookies and the computer:

1-Barca now 71% to semis, 47% to final, 31% to win it all, and now 1.75 (7/4)
2-RBLeip 68%, 44%, 24%, and 2.75
3-Atalanta 58%, 31%, 15%, and 6
Sevilla out
5-Lyon 46%, 19%, 8%, and 11
Porto out
Leverk out
6-Eintracht 41%, 15%, 5%, and 25
4-West Ham 52%, 24%, 10%, and 14
8-Rangers 31%, 9%, 3%, and 20
7-Braga 34%, 10%, 3%, and 33
Betis out
Monaco out
RedStar out
Galatasaray out

Yesterday's post:
Both pre-draw and pre-Thursday's return legs, here is where the Europa League stands per the bookies and the computer:

Barca 93% to advance tomorrow (seems high), 27% to win it all, pays 2.75:1
RBLeip 100% (walkover due to war), 24%, and 4.5
Atalanta 65%, 9%, and 10
Sevilla 68%, 9%, and 5.5
Lyon 69%, 5%, and 16.5
Porto 31%, 5%, and 40
Leverk 35%, 5%, and 25
Eintracht 74%, 4%, and 25
West H 32%, 3%, and 18
Rangers 97%, 3%, and 22
Braga 78%, 2%, and 66
Betis 26%, 2%, and 50
Monaco 22%, 2%, and 45
RedStar 3%, <1%, and 1,000
Galatasaray 7%, <1%, and 200

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner

 

It is certainly bliss to not worry about away goals rule in extra time, but not sure if the visitors were bunkering for PKs. I watched Eintracht - Betis and it was pretty back and forth, Betis hit woodwork late on what would've been a likely winner (as they would've bunkered more had it gone in). Home support is nice but I think every team has proper incentive to score if they can and avoid the crapshoot of PKs.

Obviously, I did not watch Sevilla to see if they were bunkering in ET but I did see that they brought in ex-Barca Munir before West Ham scored in ET (I suspect it was a like for like sub, but if they were really bunkering you'd bring in an extra D or Mid).

All that said, I love the stats you posted (prior post) and we will see just how much hosting 2nd leg proves beneficial with away goals removed from the equation, over a few years as sample sizes grow. And in the meantime we will always have Stamford Bridge:

 

UCL quarter final:

Real vs Chelsea
Man City vs Atletico
Bayern cs Villareal
Liverpool vs Benfica

 

Two teams I hate the most facing each other

I'd only root for Chelsea if they play RM , and now it will happen.

 

Pretty even draw in that both halves of the bracket are pretty balanced. No easy routes to the final. Madrid does get to play the second leg at the Bernaleo for both quarters and semis.

 

Without away goal rules, its definetely will benifits Real Madrid. However, the recent trend shows the home team tend to lose. Juve ,MU and in group stage City and PSG beat each other in away games.

 

Leipzig v Atalanta

2 of the better sides avoided already.

 

Frankfurt v Barca

 

West Ham v Lyon
Braga v Rangers

 

Semifinal draw:

Leipzig/Atalanta v Braga/Rangers
West Ham/Lyon v Frankfurt/Barca

 

So I guess not a difficult draw for Barca, even by Europa standards. Frankfurt are in mid-table, as are Lyon and West Ham. And we get second leg at home throughout.

The other way to look at it is that these teams have more to play for. They aren't getting to Champions League next season, and probably not even Europa League either, unless they beat us.

 

Semifinal draw:
Leipzig #2 /Atalanta #3 v Braga #7/Rangers #8
West Ham #4/Lyon #5 v Frankfurt #6/Barca #1

I added the "seedings" based on how the 538 computer ranked their chances pre-draw. Obviously Leipzig and Atalanta being on the opposite side and one knocking the other out is a huge boost for us. But then the winner of that quarterfinal has a breezy semifinal, playing Braga or Rangers.

But no complaints for Barca, our route to the final is Frankfurt, if we advance we get either West Ham or Lyon, then presumably have a final vs. whoever won between Leipzig and Atalanta.

LAST NIGHT as to the Europa League stands per the bookies and the computer:

1-Barca now 71% to semis, 47% to final, 31% to win it all, and now 1.75 (7/4)
2-RBLeip 68%, 44%, 24%, and 2.75
3-Atalanta 58%, 31%, 15%, and 6
4-West Ham 52%, 24%, 10%, and 14
5 (#4 by bookies)-Lyon 46%, 19%, 8%, and 11
6 (#7 by bookies)-Eintracht 41%, 15%, 5%, and 25
7 (#8 by bookies)-Braga 34%, 10%, 3%, and 33
8 (#6 by bookies)-Rangers 31%, 9%, 3%, and 20

Post Draw I think Barca is a big winner (and I think Frankfurt suffers). Leipzig and Atalanta should each take a hit on making semifinals but then should get a big boost on making final. Braga and Rangers similarly get a huge boost to their odds of making the semifinal by playing each other, but then will see reduced odds of getting to final almost back to where they were last night.

And that is basically what we get from the computer, but it


The bookies left Barca the favorite but without changing the short odds, weirdly Frankfurt is now 20:1 where they were 25:1 last night. They also boosted the odds for West Ham 7:1 and Lyon 12:1 to win it all as each drew the other and not a heavier weight club. Cannot see Braga in this screenshot but they are unchanged at 33:1. Leipzig's odds got shorter to 4:1 (from 4.5), but Atalanta's stayed the same. All pretty weird and why I like the computer model more:

 

CL edition is almost an afterthought now that Barca plays on Spursdays but hey here's the quick update after the draw.

Real vs Chelsea
Man City vs Atletico
Bayern vs Villarreal
Liverpool vs Benfica

In italics are what I posted Wednesday, pre draw, followed by new odds by 538 computer and british bookies:

Pre-draw here are the current favorites by both Oddschecker's british site, and 538's computer. If any of the favorites meet up that will lengthen their odds, similarly drawing Benfica or Villarreal will shorten their opponents.

City - 2.3:1 payoff to win it all, 25% chance to do so per 538
#1 drew #6 Atletico and got a slight boost 2.1 payoff and 28% to win it all

Bayern - 3.75 & 25%
Former #2 drew #7 Villarreal and got a slight boost to 3.5 but remained 25% to win

Liverpool - 3.75 & 23%
Former #3, jumped to #2 after drawing #8 Benfica, 2.6 & 26% to win

Chelsea - 9 & 10%
#4 v #5 Real Madrid - odds got longer 14:1, but computer only dropped to 9% making this the best bet

Real - 11.5 & 8%
Now 14:1 and 7%

Atleti - 19 & 4%
Now 25:1 and 2%


Villarreal - 66 & 3%
Now 119:1 and 2% (another good bet)

Benfica - 80 & 1%
Now 200:1 and less than 1%

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/

 

Little "Road to Qatar" interlude now that the pots are set but the draw has yet to take place (tomorrow). Pots listed below, followed by longest odds on Oddschecker's UK site: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner

If no odds listed the odds are longer than 400:1 to WIN IT ALL

Pot 1:
Qatar 200
Brazil 5.5
Belgium 13.5
France 6.5
Argentina 12
England 7.5
Spain 8
Portugal 16

Pot 2:
Mexico 150
Netherlands 16
Denmark 40
Germany 9.5
Uruguay 66
Switzerland 100
United States 150
Croatia 66

Pot 3:
Senegal 250
IR Iran
Japan 250
Morocco 250
Serbia 100
Poland 150
South Korea
Tunisia

Pot 4:
Cameroon
Canada 300
Ecuador 250
Saudi Arabia
Ghana
Wales 300 or Scotland / Ukraine 400
Costa Rica or New Zealand
Peru 400 or Australia / United Arab Emirates

 

Weirdly, I look forward to this day more than any other day, except probably the opening day of the World Cup itself. It's a little sad this time because of it being the last 32-team edition of the WC final draw.

 

Yea a 48-team World Cup will kind of water it down although more North American, African and Asian team representation maybe isn't a bad thing.

 

I could understand a little bit more representation but they went a bit overboard IMO. 16 additional teams all at once is a lot! Plus an awkward format to go along with it.