Thread title? I just want to be ready in case the final is once again moved to Portugal. The draw for the Group Stage of the UEFA Champions League will take place on Thursday 26 August. 26 clubs are known with 6 more teams to be determined. Here are how the pots for the draw currently look. Clubs in RED are involved in the Playoff Round the next two weeks. POT 1 Chelsea Villarreal Atlético Madrid Manchester City Bayern Munich Internazionale Lille Sporting CP POT 2 Real Madrid FC Barcelona Juventus Manchester United Paris Saint-Germain Liverpool Sevilla Borussia Dortmund POT 3 FC Porto Ajax Shakhtar Donetsk RB Leipzig Red Bull Salzburg Benfica Atalanta Zenit St. Petersburg POT 3 or 4 Besiktas Dinamo Kiev Dinamo Zagreb Ferencváros AS Monaco POT 4 Club Brugge Young Boys Sheriff Tiraspol Malmö FF AC Milan PSV Eindhoven Ludogorets Razgrad VfL Wolfsburg Brøndby
The abolishment of the Away Goals rule. In addition to the draw, I'm also going to use this thread to keep track of 'what might have been'. For the first time in 50+ years the away goals rule will not be used to decide matchups that are level on aggregate after both legs during the knockout rounds. What I plan to do is keep track of every knockout round tie where the second leg goes into extra time. I do this knowing full well that if the away goals rule was still in effect teams would have adjusted their tactics accordingly as the match progressed, especially during the final minutes of regulation in the second leg. The qualifying rounds have already provided some interesting data. UCL = Champions League UEL = Europa League ECL = Europa Conference League During the first three qualifying rounds of the three UEFA competitions a total of 26 ties have required extra-time. Of those 26, 11 would have seen no change with the away goals rule. Identical scorelines in both legs would have required extra-time: ECL-1QR: Podgorica (MNE) - Laçi (ALB) ............................................. 1-0 .. 0-1 after 90 minutes, 0-3 a.e.t. ECL-1QR: Rīga (LVA) - KÍ (FRO) .......................................................... 2-3 .. 3-2, 4-2 a.e.t. UCL-2QR: Celtic (SCO) - Midtjylland (DEN) ......................................... 1-1 .. 1-1, 1-2 a.e.t. ECL-2QR: KuPS (FIN) - Vorskla Poltava (UKR) ................................... 2-2 .. 2-2, 3-2 a.e.t. ECL-2QR: Astana (KAZ) - Aris Thessaloniki (GRE) ............................. 2-0 .. 0-2, 1-2 a.e.t. ECL-2QR: CSKA Sofia (BUL) - Liepāja (LVA) ....................................... 0-0 .. 0-0, 0-0 a.e.t., 3-1 pen ECL-2QR: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (BUL) - Slovácko (CZE) ......................... 1-0 .. 0-1, 0-1 a.e.t., 3-2 pen ECL-2QR: Olimpija Ljubljana (SVN) - Birkirkara (MAL) ......................... 1-0 .. 0-1, 0-1 a.e.t., 5-4 pen ECL-2QR: Sūduva (LTU) - Raków Częstochowa (POL) ...................... 0-0 .. 0-0, 0-0 a.e.t., 3-4 pen ECL-3QR: Kolos Kovalivka (UKR) - Shakhter Karagandy (KAZ) .......... 0-0 .. 0-0, 0-0 a.e.t., 1-3 pen ECL-3QR: Raków Częstochowa (POL) - Rubin Kazan (RUS) ............ 0-0 .. 0-0, 1-0 a.e.t. The remaining 15 ties required extra-time that otherwise would have been avoided had the away goals rule been in effect. Of the 15, 9 (listed in red) ended where the eliminated team would have advanced if the away goals rule had been in effect. UCL-1QR: Connah's Quay Nomads (WAL) - Alashkert (ARM) .......... 2-2 .. 0-0 after 90 minutes, 0-1 a.e.t. UCL-1QR: CFR Cluj (ROM) - Borac Banja Luka (BIH) ....................... 3-1 .. 0-2, 1-2 a.e.t. ECL-1QR: Sant Julià (AND) - Gżira United (MAL) .............................. 0.0 .. 1-1, 1-1 a.e.t., 3-5 pen ECL-2QR: FCSB (ROU) - Shakhter Karagandy (KAZ) ....................... 1-0 .. 1-2, 1-2 a.e.t., 3-5 pen ECL-2QR: Velež Mostar (BIH) - AEK Athens (GRE) ........................... 2-1 .. 0-1, 0-1 a.e.t., 3-2 pen ECL-2QR: Spartak Trnava (SVK) - Sepsi OSK (ROU) ....................... 0-0 .. 1-1, 1-1 a.e.t., 4-3 pen ECL-2QR: Hajduk Split (CRO) - Tobol (KAZ) ...................................... 2-0 .. 1-3, 1-4 a.e.t. UCL-3QR: Olympiacos (GRE) - Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL) ............. 1-1 .. 2-2, 2-2 a.e.t., 1-4 pen UEL-3QR: Omonia (CYP) - Flora (EST) ............................................. 1-0 .. 1-2, 1-2 a.e.t., 5-4 pen UEL-3QR: Kairat (KAZ) - Alashkert (ARM) .......................................... 0-0 .. 2-2, 2-3 a.e.t. ECL-3QR: Riga (LVA) - Hibernians (MAL) ........................................... 0-1 .. 2-1, 4-1 a.e.t. ECL-3QR: Dinamo Batumi (GEO) - Sivasspor (TUR) ........................ 1-2 .. 1-0, 1-1 a.e.t. ECL-3QR: Sochi (RUS) - Partizan (SRB) ........................................... 1-1 .. 2-2, 2-2 a.e.t., 2-4 pen ECL-3QR: Trabzonspor (TUR) - Molde (NOR) .................................... 3-3 .. 1-1, 1-1 a.e.t., 4-3 pen ECL-3QR: The New Saints (WAL) - Viktoria Plzeň (CZE) ................... 4-2 .. 1-3, 1-3 a.e.t., 1-4 pen I will update the list following the Playoff Round.
Looking at the pots now, after some of the events of the summer, it really looks like pot 2 is stronger than pot 1. Good for Barca as they are in pot 2. But at the same time, it means luck will play a huge part as you could get anything from a group of death to a very soft group. e.g.1 Barca, Lille, Sheriff Tiraspol, Malmo e.g.2 Barca, Man City, Milan, Porto
Update following Tuesday's results. POT 1 Chelsea Villarreal Atlético Madrid Manchester City Bayern Munich Internazionale Lille Sporting CP POT 2 Real Madrid FC Barcelona Juventus Manchester United Paris Saint-Germain Liverpool Sevilla Borussia Dortmund POT 3 FC Porto Ajax Shakhtar Donetsk RB Leipzig Red Bull Salzburg Benfica Atalanta Zenit St. Petersburg POT 3 or 4 Besiktas Dinamo Kiev POT 4 Dinamo Zagreb AS Monaco Club Brugge Young Boys Sheriff Tiraspol Malmö FF AC Milan VfL Wolfsburg Brøndby
The pots for the draw. POT 1 (champions) Chelsea Villarreal Atlético Madrid Manchester City Bayern Munich Internazionale Lille Sporting CP POT 2 Real Madrid FC Barcelona Juventus Manchester United Paris Saint-Germain Liverpool Sevilla Borussia Dortmund POT 3 FC Porto Ajax Shakhtar Donetsk RB Leipzig Red Bull Salzburg Benfica Atalanta Zenit St. Petersburg POT 4 Besiktas Dinamo Kiev Club Brugge Young Boys Sheriff Tiraspol Malmö FF AC Milan VfL Wolfsburg
Adding 538's global ranking of top 20 teams, plus all of POT 1 and 2 teams; followed by same for bookie odds (shortest odds to win it all from oddschecker). This year 538 is waiting to predict the winner of CL, maybe waiting for more games to be played, or just waiting till after the draw is made as the draw allows them to do more computer simulations of who is most likely to advance from each group. So the 538 #s are just how they rank teams in order right now. POT 1 (champions) Chelsea 538 #3 & Oddschecker #4 Villarreal 26 & 20 Atlético Madrid 10 & 10 Manchester City 1 & 2 Bayern Munich 2 & 3 Internazionale 13 & 14 Lille 50 & 18 Sporting CP 30 & 23 POT 2 Real Madrid 6 & 7 FC Barcelona 5 & 8 Juventus 14 & 9 Manchester United 7 & 6 Paris Saint-Germain 8 & 1 Liverpool 4 & 5 Sevilla 15 & 14 Borussia Dortmund 12 & 11 POT 3 FC Porto 23 & 18 Ajax 11 & 19 Shakhtar Donetsk RB Leipzig 13 & 15 Red Bull Salzburg 20 & 26 Benfica Atalanta 16 & 11 Zenit St. Petersburg POT 4 Besiktas Dinamo Kiev Club Brugge Young Boys Sheriff Tiraspol Malmö FF AC Milan 24 & 17 VfL Wolfsburg 25 & 19 TOP 20 in 538 not included in CL: Tottenham 17, Napoli 18, Real Sociedad 19 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/ https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner Interestingly the US odds are a little different, above are odds in England https://www.oddschecker.com/us/soccer/uefa-champions-league/champions-league/winner
Not going to happen again , unless Koeman plays with a Lenglet--Umtiti--Garcia--Roberto back four then it could be even worse.
The groups so far Group A Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig Group B Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Porto Group C Sporting CP, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax Group D Internazionale, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk Group E Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Benfica Group F Villarreal, Manchester United, Atalanta Group G Lille, Sevilla, Salzburg Group H Chelsea, Juventus, Zenit
The draw in full Group A Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, Club Brugge. Group B Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Porto, AC Milan. Group C Sporting CP, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax, Besiktas. Group D Internazionale, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sheriff Tiraspol. Group E Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Benfica, Dynamo Kyiv Group F Villarreal, Manchester United, Atalanta, Young Boys. Group G Lille, Sevilla, Salzburg, Wolfsburg. Group H Chelsea, Juventus, Zenit, Malmo.
Will be interesting if Messi plays against Ronaldo (and Pep) in the "State Sponsored Oil Wars" of City v PSG.
Would be the second season in-a-row that we have Messi v Ronaldo in the group stage. The mouth-breathers will be screaming "the draw is rigged"!
But honestly to me G is the toughest of all as all 4 teams can win the group and especially advance to the next round, that to me is a real group of death. It is hard to predict. C is similar, but I only give the top 3 teams a real shot at advancing. Sure both G and C are weak at the top, and don't include teams likely to win it all, but that just means more parity and harder to predict. For B, A, and E honestly the 2 behemoths in each are likely to advance. No disrespect to RB Leipzig, AC Milan, Porto, Benfica, but mostly those 4 teams are likely to be playing for 3rd/Europa.