I think the IOC as a group believes wishing will make it happen. Maybe they really think the Olympics can go on but they are are hurting all sports involved by delaying a decision and they just cannot face the reality that cancellation might be the best course for the world.
Australia out Australia's Olympic Committee executive board on Monday "unanimously agreed that an Australian Team could not be assembled in the changing circumstances at home and abroad." pic.twitter.com/8tV0MmOPAK— Nick Zaccardi (@nzaccardi) March 23, 2020
It is good to see countries exercising good sense. I just wish the IOC would show some of the same level of intelligence.
Further to that the AOC has advised athletes to prepare for a 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Maybe jumping the gun a bit, but it's probably what will happen.
There are too many conflicts with other major events to move the Olympics out of their four year cycle. I believe they will just cancel and move on to 2024. But it will take a lot of crayfishing around before they come to any decision. The people in charge are simply ineffective politicians and very indecisive. It will take a long time for them to come to any decision and any decision they make will probably be wrong because it will be decided by conference. "A conference is a gathering of important people who singly can do nothing, but together can decide that nothing can be done." Fred Allen
Earlier this weekend the IOC had committed to a decision in the next 4 weeks. That's not soon enough for the thousands of athletes that are struggling to train for qualifiers. There's no good position for the athletes of the IOC. For some athletes, another year could age them out of their event since time is undefeated. They need to know if they are putting everything into qualifiers in a couple weeks/months and a Games in a few months. Of course high profile team sports are different. I can't imagine a Dream Team going although an All-Covid-19 NBA first team could probably win it all.
I will post the link to this story in a few places so people that do not frequent any particular section might see it. Japan's Abe Admits Tokyo Olympics Might Be Postponed https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-abe-admits-tokyo-olympics-might-be-postponed
Yes: Replacement If any participating member association withdraws or is excluded from the Tournaments, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary. FIFA may in particular decide to replace the association in question with another association.
IOC member says that 2020 Tokyo Olympics will be postponed due to coronavirus pandemic https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-postponed-dick-pound-coronavirus/2899848001/
I think they will find that rescheduling the Olympics will prove nearly impossible. There are just too many other sports events that would also have to be rescheduled or canceled. The Olympics do not exist in a vacuum and for many sports they are of secondary importance compared to world or even regional championships.
Where there is a will there is a way. There are only a few sports where the Olympics are not the most important event. If the IOC decides that the Olympics will be in July/August 2021 it will be in the own interest of the sports federations to keep their championships away from this date.
Whilst you are right that the Olympics don't exist in a vacuum for the majority of Olympic Sports the Olympics is the big deal and those sports will shift their calendars to accommodate. With so many football events being rescheduled the football tournaments may be in doubt. There will be problems with rescheduling, but in my opinion the majority of sports will want the Olympics to take place and will do what they can to see it happens.
This is the right decision, imo. When they're being postponed to is now the question (for those not clicking through to the article above): IOC member Pound: “On the basis of the information the IOC has, postponement has been decided. The parameters going forward have not been determined, but the Games are not going to start on July 24, that much I know.” The "scenario planning" that'll now take place over the next 4 weeks is making a plan for postponement. I'll repeat what others are saying. For the majority of Olympics sports (especially the individual sports), the Olympics are the main deal. The main visibility for these athletes only happens at the Olympics. World Athletics, FINA, ICU, etc. will all be accommodating to make sure the athletes can qualify and compete in the Olympics.
I'll likely be played the same time next year. Moving it to the Fall would disrupt a lot of the Fall pro leagues.
Confirmation on proposal of postponement for "no later than summer next year" 【速報 JUST IN 】東京五輪・パラ １年程度延期を確認 安倍首相とＩＯＣ会長 #nhk_news https://t.co/T8iRZHeGKt— NHKニュース (@nhk_news) March 24, 2020
I think we all are agreed that postponement is the right decision, but it's also a costly one. Here's an ESPN article on the cost of postponement, and its not just financial (although they're looking at $5.7 billion to postpone).
New dates announced. IOC, IPC, Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee and Tokyo Metropolitan Government announce new dates for the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020 https://t.co/QITtT5dcl8 pic.twitter.com/DHi4u74ZXa— The Olympic Games (@Olympics) March 30, 2020
Well, I take it as a good omen that, one year from now, the coronavirus crisis will have been solved.
Unfortunately it is doubtful that the pandemic will be "solved" in the next year. The virus must, in some way, be no longer a viable infection in the population. There are basically three ways that can happen: 1 - It could just go away. That is unlikely in the extreme but it has happened before but this virus does not fit the pattern of just going away. 2 - The virus could run through the population in enough numbers that effectively most of the population becomes immune. There is a problem with that in that, so far, there is no proof that previously infected and recovered people gain long term immunity. 3 - There could be an effective vaccine developed. That will take at least a year, if things go right, and it depends on the ability to develop long term immunity. A vaccine works in basically the same way as previously infected people gaining immunity. While it can happen in as little as a year it is more likely to be between a year and a half and two years. Vaccines do not magically appear and there is no similar virus to even base the vaccine on. I just do not see any way for this pandemic to be truly over in a year but it may be mitigated to the point where the world will be back to nearly normal. BTW: There is a forth way this pandemic could kind of end. That is that the virus becomes part of the general environment and we just learn to live with it. One thing I hope does come of this is that some parts of "social distancing" becomes permanent. I think the world should drop shaking hands and hugging and the like from our social habits and adopt bowing instead. It is much more civilized anyway and hand shaking etc pass along a lot more that just the novel coronavirus. I really want some solution that allows sports to get going again. I have discovered that watching old matches is not very satisfying. But, being realistic, I think we will be without new matches for about nine months or more unless things undergo some drastic change. I know this all sounds negative but I can find little positive about this pandemic and our leaders just do not seem smart enough to get us through this effectively. It is nearly guaranteed that our leaders will lift restrictions too soon and that will cause some places have their outbreaks restarted. As I said I really want sports, especially soccer, to restart. I am mostly home-bound and there is little for me to do so I really want there to be sports to watch. But I do not want anything to happen too soon as too soon could reset everything back to time zero.
In fact, what I was really meaning with my post (but I am aware that it could come across quite the opposite way) was that I am not confident at all that the pandemic will be "solved" by July 2021, so it was striking me as quite optimistic that the IOC was re-scheduling the Games with just one year's delay. Basically, what I was trying to convey was: "I actually don't believe Olympics Games in 2021 will be much more viable than this summer, but, hey, if they would it would be great!".
Yep. This virus does not conform to any spread model from previous pandemics. It is not deadly enough to eradicate itself and it does not really respond to any anti-viral drugs currently available and it spreads without the carriers having to show any symptoms and it may not, we do not know at this time, convey long term immunity to recovered victims. Conventional approaches will not control this virus and our leaders are not smart enough to think "outside the box" so we are in for a long siege and I doubt that one year will make group gatherings even remotely feasible. Our leaders, particularly our (USA's) fearless chimp in charge, only want to look good. They figure that they can say just about anything as long as they change it later. It looks like the IOC thinks that if they place the event date far enough in the future they cannot go wrong. The fact is by even trying to give a solid date they feed unjustified optimism and that is one of the most harmful things leaders can do. Right now all we really know is that we don't know how this virus behaves and any optimistic projecting is, at best, premature.
You are feeding unjustified pessimism and this is also harmful. If people don`t believe that it could get better in foreseeable future there will be a big increase in depression and suicide rate. We don`t know enough about the virus to predict serious when we will solve the problem. Stopping to plan the future is no solution. An event like the Olympics has to be planned in advance. You can`t say: The virus has been stopped - let`s have Olympics next month.