2020 Tokyo Olympics - general discussion

Discussion in '2020 Women's Olympics Soccer' started by shlj, May 3, 2018.

Tags:
  1. JanBalk

    JanBalk Member+

    Jun 9, 2004
    Uppsala, Sweden
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    I know there are no Swedish WNT players in Pride or Courage am I correct in assuming there are no Australian WNT players in them?
     
  2. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I estimated the performance ratings of 9 of 12 of the Olympic teams since January 1, 2020, based on the FIFA Ratings.It's a measure of how well a team has performed in the specific time period. Naturally it tends to hew close to the official ratings but performance ratings can sometime reveal upward or downward trends.

    USA performance rating 2196 (Official rating 2197)
    Netherlands 2029 (2035)
    Brazil 2010 (1971)
    China 1983 (1875)
    Canada 1960 (1962)
    Sweden 1939 (2011)
    Australia 1890 (1952)
    England 1854 (1974) *
    Japan 1842 (1942)

    *England of course is standing in for Team Great Britain
    The data of course is more sparse than it normally would because of the coronavirus pandemic which put a kibosh on games for almost a year.

    A team rated 100 points higher than another would be expected to advance in a knockout game roughly 62% of the time. With a 200 point difference, the higher-rated team's odds go up to roughly 74-75%

    0 points difference: 50% odds of advancing in a knockout game
    100 points: roughly 62%
    200 points: roughly 74-75%
    300 points: roughly 84%
    400 points: roughly 91%
    500 points: roughly 95%
     
  3. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I found a mistake in my calculation of Sweden's estimated performance rating. It should be 1957, not 1939. Not a huge difference but still, for some reason, I feel better. Also, I added the estimated performance ratings since 1/1/2020 for Chile and Zambia
    USA performance rating 2196 (Official rating 2197)
    Netherlands 2029 (2035)
    Brazil 2010 (1971)
    China 1983 (1875)
    Canada 1960 (1962)
    Sweden 1957 (2011)
    Australia 1890 (1952)
    England 1854 (1974) *
    Japan 1842 (1942)
    Chile 1626 (1622)
    Zambia 1352 (1191)


    New Zealand (official rating 1757) has not played a single match in 2020-2021 as far as I can find!

    I would simply ignore Zambia's rating; currently the greatest weakness of the FIFA rating system is the ranking of African teams. If you need a rating number for them, I would assign a provisional rating of 1600. Obviously that's a rough rough rough estimate.

    A team rated 100 points higher than another would be expected to advance in a knockout game roughly 62% of the time. With a 200 point difference, the higher-rated team's odds go up to roughly 74-75%

    0 points difference: 50% odds of advancing in a knockout game
    100 points: roughly 62%
    200 points: roughly 74-75%
    300 points: roughly 84%
    400 points: roughly 91%
    500 points: roughly 95%
     
    Lohmann and JanBalk repped this.
  4. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  5. Lechus7

    Lechus7 Member+

    Aug 31, 2011
    Wroclaw
    FIFA rules:

    "Monday morning of the week preceding the week when the relevant competition starts."

    Tournament starts 21st June so must release date is Monday morning 12th June. Technically speaking Courage and Pride didn't made any offence.
    However beacuse all teams traditionally play warm up games during a week before Olympic (or WWC) clubs are asked by associations to release NT players at the begining of said weekend (Friday or Saturday) rather than Monday.
    It's a fair play custom observed by all FA's ....or almost all as it would seem now.

    Its smells fishy because USSoccer is also main stakeholder in NWSL.
    NZL is in the group with USWNT. NZL problems play into USWNT advantage.
     
  6. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Yeah most FA have let their players go in camp early. Team GB have been in training since 17 June for example. Even earlier with the England players but they had to wait for Weir, Little and Ingle.

    It's a courtesy thing between clubs and country.
     
    JanBalk and kolabear repped this.
  7. West Ender

    West Ender Member

    Dec 28, 2020
    Southwest
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it speaks to how much those 2 players mean to their respective teams.
    I don't think there is a conspiracy between the NWSL clubs to help the USWNT win their game vs NZ.
    I mean, what are NZ's chances of beating the USA, even with all their players practicing together for the past month?
    Having said that, I agree that it was not acceptable to allow other players to be released by not those 2.
     
    soccernutter repped this.
  8. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I cannot say anything about what might have motivated Orlando, but as for North Carolina, Riley has done this before. I do not think it has anything to do with helping the USWNT in the Olympics, I think it has to do with trying to get an advantage over a Courage opponent.
     
    SiberianThunderT and kolabear repped this.
  9. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #309 kolabear, Jul 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2021
    It seems odd though that Riley wouldn't want to keep his player happy. He's done that for Denise O'Sullivan and her place in Ireland's national team. Erceg had some kind of issue with her national team federation, if I recall, a year or two back (she may have even quite the team), so I wonder if Erceg feels as much loyalty to the NC Courage as to the New Zealand national team. I really don't know but I have to wonder.
     
  10. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That was my thought, but I was wondering if there was something I was unaware of. That and the timing of release.
     
  11. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    COVID cases starting to show up apparently being caught in the Oly village.. One US women's gymnast. A couple of South African footballers. And there have been a few Oly staff/volunteers as well.
     
  12. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    Buckle up for more cases and plenty of cancelled and ppd games.
     
  13. Ponde_Ringu

    Ponde_Ringu Member

    May 17, 2021
    #313 Ponde_Ringu, Jul 20, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2021
    I wouldn't start thinking too negatively yet.

    As we saw from various sports competitions that were held during this pandemic, COVID cases will happen. No one thought there would be 0 infected during these olympics. As long as the athletes are tested frequently and the positive cases are caught, the games will go on. We can all worry if these numbers start reaching hundreds daily.

    Right now they are catching the 10 or so positive cases each day, searching close contancts, and getting them isolated which means we can relax and enjoy the sport.

    What has me more worried is the number of cases in Tokyo. :cry: But that will have minimal effect on the games. The bubble may be easy to break out of but is really hard to break into.
     
  14. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    I am not sure I have actually seen a protocol for games postponed/cancelled due to Covid cases. I mean they can't postpone due to the tight schedule.
     
  15. Ponde_Ringu

    Ponde_Ringu Member

    May 17, 2021
    #315 Ponde_Ringu, Jul 20, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2021
    In terms of football, I heard the team with covid case(s) can play if the rest of the team tests negative within 6 hours before the game and the oppositiion are okay with it. Don't know how they decide which team forfeits the points though.
     
  16. Lohmann

    Lohmann Member+

    Arminia Bielefeld
    Germany
    Feb 24, 2020
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    The Olympic Games have started with the softball match between Australia and Japan. Football is definitely a more interesting sport.:sleep:
     
    blissett repped this.
  17. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Just a question: isn't there any website or YouTube channel where all of the official highlights from this Olympic tournament will be uploaded, the way FIFA did with the World Cup?

    If yes, where? If no, why? :cautious:
     
  18. Bauser

    Bauser Member+

    Dec 23, 2000
    Norway
    Club:
    Fredrikstad FK
    The Eurosport channel on Youtube has everything, but it might be geoblocked in certain areas.

    Let's try the USA-Sweden game as sample.

     
    kolabear and blissett repped this.
  19. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Thanks, it looks like it's not geo-blocked! :thumbsup:

    The format looks like the short, limited one we're used to from FIFA events (for instance, I only watched the USA-Sweden highlights so far, but they're missing the post hit by USA at the end of 1st Half). It's way better than nothing for the matches I happened to miss, anyway.

    I wonder if they managed to squeeze in all of the 13 goals from Zambia-Netherlands: I suspect they didn't, but I'll give it a look later.
     
    Bauser repped this.
  20. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    Trying to predict how Group E will end up. Who was the better team between Japan & Canada? Japan first, Canada second, GB third?

    Would make the quarterfinals as follows(with Brazil winning Group F):
    Japan vs. Australia
    Sweden vs. Great Britain
    Brazil vs. United States
    Netherlands vs. Canada
     
  21. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Eurosnob ;)

    It's geoblocked for us in the US. Gonna have to turn my VPN to the international version.
     
    blissett repped this.
  22. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Highlights should be available from whatever broadcaster has the Olympic rights in your country. In the US, NBC Olympics' website has the highlights.
     
  23. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    By the way: through Eurosport I could see highlights of USA-Sweden (that I had also watched live), Great Britain-Chile and Zambia-Netherlands. But I didn't notice any other highlights there so far. :cautious:

    I watched Japan-Canada live so I don't need highlights, but could anyone post (here or on the respective threads) any video from Brazil-China and Australia-New Zealand, that I couldn't see so far?
     
  24. Lohmann

    Lohmann Member+

    Arminia Bielefeld
    Germany
    Feb 24, 2020
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    #324 Lohmann, Jul 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
    Brazil-China

    Edit: Fifth goal is not shown
     
  25. Lohmann

    Lohmann Member+

    Arminia Bielefeld
    Germany
    Feb 24, 2020
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Australia-New Zealand goals
     
    blissett, soccernutter and JanBalk repped this.

Share This Page