2020 Season Catch All Thread

Ok, so here's the "chances" of us making the playoffs breakdown:

**EDIT**Per the MLS guidelines, tie breakers are calculated on a "per match" basis. As Jason pointed out that I missed the first tie breaker is wins, or in this case wins per matches played and then goal differential. I have re-edited the possible chances to reflect this as the tie breaker and not the differential). However, I have left the current GD in as I think it still speaks to the overall form of the teams below us in the playoff hunt.

COLORADO RAPIDS
(0 goal differential) have 3 games remaining - Vs Seattle, @ Portland, @ Houston

• If we win all 3 - not impossible, but definitely NOT something we should count on - we finish with 1.56 PPG
• If we win 2 and tie one - again, improbable, but possible - we will finish with 1.44 PPG
• If we win 1 and tie 2 - 1.33 PPG
• If we win, draw, and lose one - 1.27 PPG
• If we win 1, lose two (or tie all three) - 1.22 PPG
• If we lose one, tie two games - 1.16 PPG
• If we tie one game - 1.11 PPG
• If we lose all 3 - 1.05 PPG

Vancouver
(-19 goal differential) has 2 games remaining - Portland and LA Galaxy.

• If they win both games (ha! beating Portland in Portland...not likely, but just in case) - Vancouver will finish with 1.30 PPG
• If they win against LA Galaxy (more likely ... the Gals STINK) and tie Portland - Vancouver will finish with 1.22 PPG
• If they win one / lose one - 1.17 PPG
• If they tie both games - 1.13 PPG
• If they tie one game - 1.09 PPG
• If they lose both - 1.04 PPG

FSL
(-7 goal differential) has 2 games remaining - LA Gals and KFC

• If they win both games (not likely to beat KFC, but again, just in case) - FSL will finish with 1.27 PPG
• If they win against LA Galaxy (more likely ... again, the Gals STINK) and tie KFC - FSL will finish with 1.18 PPG
• If they win one / lose one - 1.14 PPG
  
• If they tie both games - 1.09 PPG
• If they tie one game - 1.05 PPG
• If they lose both - 1 PPG

Houston
(-6 goal differential) has 2 games remaining - FC Dallas and CO Rapids

• If they win both games (which would really suck for us.....) - Houston will finish with 1.17 PPG
• If they win one and tie one - Houston will finish with 1.09 PPG
• If they win one / lose one - 1.04 PPG
• If they tie both games - 1 PPG
• If they tie one and lose one - .096 PPG
• If they lose both - .91 PPG

LA Galaxy
(-17 goal differential) has 3 games remaining - FSL, Seattle, and Vancouver

• If they win all 3 - which given their current run of form would be miraculous, but not impossible - GALS finish with 1.23 PPG
• If they win 2 and tie one - again, improbable, but possible - GALS will finish with 1.14 PPG
• If they win 1 and tie 2 - 1.05 PPG
• If they win, draw, and lose one - 1 PPG
• If they win 1, lose two (or tie all three)- .95 PPG
• If they lose one, tie two games - .91 PPG
• If the tie one game - .86 PPG
• If they lose all 3, which has a very real chance - .82 PPG

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:

• Rapids get 5 points (win and two draws)
  • So, after all of that, 5 points in our next three (like @JasonMa said) will absolutely guarantee our spot in the playoffs. We will not be able to be overtaken by any of the teams below us on the table.
• 4 points will almost assuredly seal our spot
  • Unless Vancouver wins out - beating the Gals and pulling off the upset in Portland
  • If FSL wins out, we beat them on a wins per match average ( we would have .33 WPG, and they would have .32 WPG)
• If 3 points is all we get, then we still have a VERY REAL chance.
  • There are only two scenarios that the Rapids are out of the playoffs if we only get 3 points (losing against SEA and PTL, but win at Houston for example):
    • Any one of Vancouver, FSL, or Gals win out
    • Vancouver wins one and ties one (beating Galaxy and drawing Portland for example)
• 2 points - which is a possibility here, lets be honest
  • This puts us at 1.16 PPG, and in a lot more precarious of a situation, and we would need a LOT of help
  • Our best bet would be if we got some help from the GALS by them beating Vancouver and FSL, and then draw/lose @ Seattle
    • If this happens, then FSL would need to lose @ KFC and
    • Vancouver would need to lose @ PTL
    • We would also still need Houston to drop points

All in all, our fate definitively lies in our own hands. I would say we still have a better chance of making the playoffs then not at this point. We have a home game that we can fight for a draw in, and an away game that we absolutely should win. If we only win one game and lose the other two, then we are still in good shape.

Come Saturday, we will know a lot more about what we need to do to get in the playoffs.

For me, I'll obviously be rooting for the Rapids this weekend. But I'll also be rooting for the Gals to tie/win against FSL, and for Portland to just absolutely SMASH Vancouver on Sunday.

 

You beat me to the punch! Was typing this up when I saw the notification of your post

 

Ah, I missed that. Reread the guidelines here:
https://www.mlssoccer.com/league/of...icial-rules/competition-rules-and-regulations

And have edited the original posted scenarios to reflect that

 

So, while I will never enjoy, root, or hope for a player getting injured, Portland has had some very key injuries hit their team this season, and have had another hit before tomorrow's game as well:

Jaroslaw Niezgoda will miss the remainder of the season after the results of an MRI revealed a torn ACL in his left knee.

DETAILS: https://t.co/aW3UKiC73P | #RCTID pic.twitter.com/87Gt1AUGPD

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) November 3, 2020

He is their DP striker. 8 goals and 2 assists in all competitions for them this year.

Add him to the list of confirmed "out for season" injuries:
Sebastian Blanco - DP - torn ACL (someone who has terrorized the Rapids)
Dairon Asprilla - Midfielder

They've also got the following on the injury report (and these players missed their last game on Sunday)
Julio Cascante - Defender - left ankle
Jeremy Ebobisse - Forward (9g/3a in all comps) - concussion protocol
Marvin Loria - Midfielder - Abdomen injury


I don't think anyone expected to beat Seattle the way we did on Sunday. And with those key players being out/questionable for Portland, we may have a very real shot to win tomorrow night as well.


Honestly, the COVID outbreak that hit the Rapids was unfortunate. But the timing of it also gave our team a solid month of rest before rolling into the playoffs....blessing in disguise maybe? While we are going into tomorrows game with "short rest", our legs should still be fresher as we basically had a mini offseason all last month - and we have fewer key injuries to deal with.

While we are working on getting into match fitness, and Portland is working on trying to stay fit and/or healthy enough to compete in the playoffs. Tomorrow could be a trap game for the Timbers against us, and we could very well come out of it with all 3 points again.

Imagine if we closed out the season on a 3 game win streak??? A 3 game win streak puts us at 28 points on the season. Not one single team below the playoff line can get to 28 points with their remaining games.

I wonder if Robin Fraser said to the guys in the locker room before Seattle:
"So, I'm sure you all heard that the MLS is doing a PPG playoff qualification. There's going to be a lot of haters out there saying we don't deserve to be in the playoffs because we've played fewer games...They are going to say that we limped in and lucked out to get in the playoffs. Well. Tonight we play the reigning MLS cup Champs. Everyone expects us to get blown out of the water. This is our house. This is our game. We're not playing for the draw tonight. Let's go out there and WIN. Prove to the league. Prove to the haters. Put them all on notice Prove to them that we are the Colorado Rapids and we BELONG here..."

 

Well, the Rapids are in the playoffs! I guess Padraig Smith made good on his promise this year *shrugs*

Anyways. I could go on all day throwing jabs at the RFO, but we have beaten the two of the top three teams in the Western Conference (and probably 2 of the top 6-7 teams in the league) in back to back games - and it's not like we looked lucky to get those results either. The Burgundy Boys have played REALLY hard the last couple games and the result on the pitch has showed for it.

As of this morning, the Rapids currently sit 7th place in the West, and all playoff spots in the West are taken. No one can jump in, and no one can fall out of the playoffs in the West.

If the playoffs were to start today, and assuming a traditional playoff bracket, this means that we would go on the road to play Portland in our first playoff match (2nd place hosting 7th place).

PLAYOFF SEEDING SCENARIOS:
The cutoff for hosting the first round of the playoffs at home is 4th place, and in order to get into fourth place we would need to pass LAFC, Minnesota, and Dallas this weekend. If we win on Saturday, that will take us to 1.56ppg.

However, Minnesota and Dallas play each other on Saturday, which means that 1.56ppg will not be mathematically enough to pass both Minnesota and Dallas, no matter the result. A tie will put MNUFC at 1.52ppg, but Dallas at 1.59. If MNUFC loses, Dallas jumps to 1.68. If MNUFC wins, they jump to 1.62ppg

This means we will likely be road warriors throughout the playoffs.

As far as the matchups this weekend that directly impact our seeding, LAFC hosts Portland, Seattle hosts SJ, Houston hosts us, and as mentioned above, MNUFC hosts Dallas


We would drop to 8th in the West ONLY if we lose to Houston AND SJ beats Seattle.

We stay in 7th if:

• Rapids tie AND LAFC ties/wins OR
• Rapids lose AND SJ ties/loses

We rise to 6th in the West in a couple of scenarios:

• Rapids win OR
• Rapids tie AND LAFC loses

We rise to 5th in the West if:

• Rapids WIN AND
• MNUFC tie/lose

POTENTIAL 1st ROUND MATCHUPS
There's a lot of "if this, then that and this and that needs to happen for this" and "if that happens, then this, that and the other thing" going in to this weekend to predict playoff matches.

However, the simplest machination is this:
If we win this weekend, and MNUFC ties Dallas, then we are guaranteed to play Dallas week one of the playoffs.

The rest of it is a complete crapshoot in terms of predicting who we play. Too many variables in too many matches. KFC could drop to 3rd. Dallas could rise to 1st. MNUFC could drop to 7th. And so on, and so forth.

For me? I just hope that we end up in a different side of the bracket than KFC - meaning we wouldn't have to play them in Kansas until the Western Conf. Finals.

CAN THE RAPIDS HOST A PLAYOFF GAME?
Yes, if we don't finish 8th.

If we finish 7th, then we have to hope that the 8th place team runs their entire bracket and then we would host the Western Conference Finals game. That's it.

If we finish 6th, then all we have to hope for is the 7th place team to win their first match. We then host our 2nd game of the playoffs. If the 8th place team also runs through their entire side of the bracket, then we host the Western Conference Finals as well.

If we finish 5th, we could potentially host those 2 games as well (our 2nd match, and the West. Conf. Finals). However, we have a little more hope as we are now counting on the 6th, 7th, or 8th teams to win some games.