News: 2020 Season and Virus Talk

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by nbrooks503, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2751 juvechelsea, Jul 16, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2020
    no, actually my point is that getting rid of the virus might require coordination as opposed to taking down our collective pants and dealing with it. to me the desire for a technological solution, while helpful and potentially the problem solver here, dovetails with people not wanting to change how they act.

    however, re technological solutions, there are others short of vaccines. i think the corporate survivors of this are going to be the businesses like HEB that prepare and adapt and not the ones just telling the rest of us "get on with it."

    for example, i occasionally take classes for personal edification. online. they work fine. i have watched this getting ripped upon by pro-in class people. surely if your child can watch youtube they can handle canvas or zoom. and maybe it's not that your kid can't concentrate online, but that they were a handful in class just the same. we're suddenly pretending mainstream average kids are 100% attentive in physical classes which is laughable. i assume that is just mom and dad finding out how lil johnny behaves the rest of the time.

    anyhow, online classes are a perfectly suitable middle ground that if you let the teacher handle from home, solves the whole problem. no risk to teacher, no risk to student. above living at home at least.

    i find giggle inducing pediatricians whose supposed reason for wanting school is socialization or mental health. are they psychologists now? did they actually ask the kids? i am sure their complaint would be more i don't get to play with x than whether they go in to school or not. their might be some special needs exceptions but properly focused it becomes a question of do the exceptions make the rule. or is there another way we get special needs kids their education and help.

    also, i find amusing the set who seem to think teachers are their day care.

    epidemic experts would say schools as spreaders is 101 knowledge. parents being honest with themselves would admit as much. this is not really even a debate except in the crazy eyes of a private-educated business major heir to billions, given her job for donations, whose mission in life is to undermine public schools in favor of vouchers. far be it from me to think that this could be the equivalent of the former USFL owner at 1600 who always seems to find reasons to diss the NFL he sued and lost. and then his league went bankrupt. they couldn't possibly have an agenda in putting ISDs in an artificial bind where they either consider their students or get their federal funding, but not both. and of course if everyone just got kicked out of Yates, they would all go to St. John's, who would take in 100,000s of students for them. they couldn't possibly be instead put at the mercy of fly by night outfits milking the tax dollar as a scheme. never.
     
  2. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    that comes under the heading of the last guy can't let that runner get away. take one for the team.

    why is everyone that far up on a corner with 25 left in a 1 goal game?

    it's a cherry on top that the ultimate finish is basically an own goal.
     
  3. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    whatever makes you happy. at least i live my values. kind of sad to make hypocrisy claims then attack living your values as virtue signalling. hint: i obviously wasn't going to make you happy either way.

    fwiw i openly campaigned for a bit on here that it was a bad idea so this is not about me.
     
  4. OnceAggie

    OnceAggie Member

    Apr 23, 2016
    Club:
    Atletico Nacional
    those quake unis are fire!
     
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  5. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    *rey* repped this.
  6. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
  7. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    well you argued against the bubble too. I guess no physical activity is your solutions Maybe you should just move to Canada too!!
     
  8. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    “In task force meetings, officials discussed a spike in cases across the South and whether any bumps in caseloads were caused by crowded protests over the killing of George Floyd. They briefly considered if it was a fleeting side effect of Memorial Day gatherings.

    They soon realized there was more at play.

    Digging into new data from Dr. Birx, they concluded the virus was in fact spreading with invisible ferocity during the weeks in May when states were opening up with Mr. Trump’s encouragement and many were all but declaring victory.

    With the benefit of hindsight, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert R. Redfield, acknowledged this week in a conversation with the Journal of the American Medical Association that administration officials — himself included — severely underestimated infections in April and May. He estimated they were missing as many as 10 cases each day for every one they were confirming.”

    QED.
     
  9. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2760 juvechelsea, Jul 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    Just underlining the quasi-fascist Trump era where you either agree with a crazy man whose track record is bankruptcy, or you’re not really an American. Why can’t we simply do things that work as opposed to what the crazy boss says? My bosses have always let me say woah, or why not try this. A lot of this has to do with a dumb boss who fires people who don’t just implement even his dumbest ideas. The crossroads of stupidity and lack of humility about it.

    Sporting events with crowds, church services, and other such events are high risk spreading events. Even with no crowds soccer is a team sport where teams travel together, stay together, eat together, huddle before games, and make physical contact. And you’re not thinking about all the staff around them and the hotels and the planes and all the ripple effects out to their families. This is not guys in the park.

    This is not abstracted, I caught a couple minutes of a game and saw the teams huddled up or high fiving goals. Right then and there it’s “they don’t get it.”. It’s not as bad as bars or churches but it’s not safe or even a well thought adaptation. I might support well adapted sports but what I see is basically tests then back to a fake normal.

    I do some masked local walking (sometimes with dogs) at times when I feel like I will meet no one or close to that. My wife does some biking. There is some stuff you can do where people don’t have to huddle or bang into each other or call upon a big ol’ pile of staff to play out an event. Part of the deal here is you’re mixing personal fitness with industrial sport with all the behind the scenes necessary for that.

    I also think this unnecessarily risks use of additional local health resources already overwhelmed, and just sends the wrong “play pretend” message. The other countries re-starting soccer did so having basically zeroed out their cases. When you zero out the cases it becomes a localized contact-tracing issue, following rare cases around. You can rest assured it is highly unlikely someone sick is around. We instead have an out of control pandemic where we have little clue who has what. Our testing regime is generally self selected people who already think they are sick. That is not when to play sports. And trying to run an economy amidst all this only drags out the problem while claiming to shorten the issue.

    We need to grow up and accept the public health slate of responses, get this zeroed,and then we can have an economy and sports in good conscience and not “because we have to.”. Trump is real good at dictatorial “because we have to.”. Just look at him on schools. Schools spreading disease is epidemic 101. But the oracle hath spoken. The oracle is obsessed with things looking normal because he has re-election to worry about. Very few teachers or public health practitioners say this is wise. But what he likes are yes men.
     
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  10. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2761 juvechelsea, Jul 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    At some point maybe the GOP will catch on that during a virus laissez fair and “it’s your decision” is basically taking your pants down for the virus. Considering we have a crash almost every GOP term, it’s dubious that laissez faire and deregulation work for average people. Black monday 1986, S&L implosion, 9/11, first term Bush recession, 2008. Plus this. To me it’s fairly well proven your version of economics is unsustainable. I’m not a socialist but any idiot can see we need a more centrist economic governance and less absolutism. Funny but the 2 sustained booms the past 50 years were Clinton and Obama. But we’re “socialists.”

    And in this particular situation saying “do your thing” and suggesting maybe it’s exaggerated and maybe you don’t need masks or distancing or whatnot is basically a recipe for disaster. Again, the facts are simply out there. Over and over states that open up and don’t require masks and open bars get spanked. The lessons are clear.

    To be clear, the only reason masks were not pushed initially was we had a PPE shortage and there was no cottage industry yet in making alternatives. If you pushed masks initially then you would have had hospitals fighting Joe Schmo for N95. I think it should have been put that way rather than spun as “we’re not sure if masks work,”which they didn’t actually know.

    But I am basically dealing with the political equivalent of religion. This used to be a practical place where the GOP might have goals but could raise taxes if that’s what the budget and economy needed. But in reality it’s the place where we can’t mask up and socially distance and get the job done “because my rights” and so we have one of the worst outcomes in the world. This burger doesn’t taste good with your secret sauce. Does your chef have any clue how to cook any other way? Do you have any other ideas? Do you believe in pragmatism? Most GOP economics seems to be moral philosophy — “get a job” — posing as intellectualism or pseudoscience.

    To me the worst part is that if the economy and disease continue like this there will be long term consequences. It’s not just the pandemic but the Herbert Hoover response that may cripple us. Quit blaming dems for this getting loose. Quit blaming Dems for using the public health playbook that works anywhere else but here.




    Last, at some point when this is all over we may look into how a lot of these need items got bought up by profiteers. That there are people who when a crisis arises now, go buy up TP and N95 and Lysol wipes and sell them at 1000% markup to the government or on ebay. This is also the “free market” at work — and it doesn’t work. A lot of these shortages seem to be artificial. if people aren’t going to behave themselves the solution is simple, punish people like if they charge $5 for gas in a hurricane.
     
  11. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You do realize that by arguing what’s in the article above you’re pointing out that the lockdown didn’t work and will never work and we had far more cases than we thought we did and we still don’t have a high death rate in Texas (very low compared to other states). Go look at California And the state of Washington right now - lockdowns do not work to eliminate the issue, only flatten and prolong
     
  12. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just stay in your cave with Internet and go for your masked walks a few times a week until 2022, OK? Public health has been abysmally wrong at almost every turn of this they have no credibility left - They played the panic cards at the beginning and the panic never happened most places so nobody’s going to ever go back and believe them now.
     
  13. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  14. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For my man @juvechelsea, addressing some of the media folks he posted who had dire articles

     
  15. Dynamo_Forever

    Dynamo_Forever Member+

    Aug 9, 2007
    Clear Lake, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You need an ex-NY Times writer with an agenda to decipher the data for you?
     
  16. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    no, Juve cited the article authors last week on some post about how bad it was in Houston. They’ve been writing these fear porn articles since early April about Houston
     
  17. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2768 juvechelsea, Jul 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
    The part you're confused about is every other outlet in town was saying we were getting into trouble on beds and ICUs as well. You're acting like just the random city paper ran the story. They ran it when no one else was. And then the Chronicle and then channel 2 etc.

    WE ARE IN FACT HALTING ELECTIVE PROCEDURES, SHIPPING PATIENTS OUT OF TOWN TO PERIPHERY HOSPITALS. I AM NOT IMAGINING THINGS.

    It's not "fear porn." Be glad you are healthy. If you get unhealthy, then you have to deal with saturated doctors and nurses, saturated resources, how long it takes for your ambulance to get accepted, how long it takes to get a room, the fact they are using ER rooms like normal beds, the fact they are converting normal beds and other spaces to ERs.

    Basically what you're doing is trying to make a political issue out of the slow motion disaster of an event that kills 3.6% of the infected, but slowly. Apparently if it's not pre drug HIV or smallpox it doesn't count. By that argument 1918's 2.5% doesn't count either. Your lot instead wants to talk about percentages of the population, when not everyone has been sick, partway through a pandemic. Setting aside spiking the ball on your own 20, using your method your % would only go up, as the numerator will increase rapidly but the denominator not so much. It's a fake, always-backwards looking abuse of statistics. You want to know what your real risk is? It's infected versus dead. What happens if I get sick.

    Dead versus population is just callousness personified. Apparently we can go past all manner of death tolls that would previously have triggered responses -- 9/11 (3000), Vietnam (50k), WW1 (110k) and head towards events seen as American meat grinders -- WW2 (400k), 1918 flu (675k estimated)***. And most of these events triggered responses, were taken seriously. You instead suggest if it doesn't kill like smallpox, even if it surpasses every war we ever fought, it's basically a hoax. You lack the guts to say hoax. So it's instead "fear porn." Or "exaggerated." Be honest, say what you mean. A sickness that kills more people in a few months than our whole time in Vietnam, or our time in world wars, is somehow nothing to sniff about.

    I mean, I hear the snickering Fox News arguments about it's less than 1% dead. 1% of the USA would be like 3 million dead. It's Dan Patrick saying you're expendable. It's a bs abstraction intended to mislead the gullible. I am not stupid.

    ***To be clear about one thing, this is one of the few events where we have the medicine and tools to test enough people to have a test count as opposed to mostly an estimate. Even annual flu these days is an estimate with real test counts in the 100s per week nationwide. Most people don't take their flu to a hospital. And yet I have to listen to half brains compare estimates with counts. Based on how many people keeled over in NYC and didn't get counted, you don't have a clue what a covid "estimate" would be. We might already be near some of the meat grinders if you include the untested. To be clear, most of us don't get tested for what we get diagnosed with and sent home with antibiotics for. The doc looks at you, takes your temp, says you have a cold. No tests are run. That normally counts. It only doesn't count for the guy who wants to get re-elected and his henchpeople. Everything tto them is a conspiracy and politics at work. Except it is epidemiology 101 that estimates are bigger than test counts. Because not everyone wants to see a doctor. Because people are scared to go to a hospital or even in public right now. Because you didn't have enough tests to capture what happened. Because you don't have enough tests to capture the population as opposed to those who self selected drive down and say test me.

    To tie "testing" in a bow, I knew a few people out of town who got sick and had severe symptoms, but did not qualify for testing. Fever over 100, chills, etc. You had to be even worse ill or have a contact trace to a confirmed case. Merely being sick did not suffice to get a test. Just think about that last sentence for a moment. That says how the test count is an undercount within its punctuation. Not only did you ration care but you want to avoid the implications of that rationing for your own statistics.

    I get so bored of people playing pretend and numbers games.
     
  18. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2769 juvechelsea, Jul 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
    Cities with 140-150k people include Joliet, Rockford, Savannah, Killeen, Syracuse, Mesquite, McAllen, Dayton. Take one of those. Wipe it out. That's what's happened, just as a confirmed test number.

    To me part of the problem with our country is we are so huge everything is an abstraction. If community and politics was chopped apart into smaller bits and localized, I think you would have better government and relationships as people would relate to something concrete for which they shared responsibility. As it stands, we're the sort of place that could care less what the other wise of the country or town -- or even next neighborhood -- looks like, and blows off 0.4% virus deaths as not worth their time, generally speaking, because they have no personal experience or concrete relation to any of it.

    140k is 4x worse already than the gun problem in this country that Fox runs on an endless Chicago loop like it means something.
     
  19. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As one that reads each and every post for many moons now that our folks type up on our Houston boards, I hear both of you. However, perhaps you gentlemen can take this topic to PM.

    In as much I have listened to both of y'all and want to move on I will have to remind you Juve that what you speak of above might be due to the fact that one arrives from nature, COVID-19. Where the other, bullets fired in anger, does not arrive from nature.
    Humans can choose to murder. A global disease while a killer, does not murder, does not "seek" a specific victim.
     
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  20. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I actually derive a perverse pleasure in that you take this much time to research and compose posts
     
  21. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    "When we see admissions, that shows a real clear crest in decline," Boom said. "But if you look at the numbers still in the hospital, that has not shown the same decline." Boom added that there are currently 725 patients in-house at Houston Methodist.

    Boom said that there are several things that he feels are working effectively to stem the hospitalization time.

    "The use of Remdesivir, intravenous steroids, and convalescent serum plasma--we're starting to get some signals that these are effective," Boom said. "We're also involved in two antibody trials. The other thing that has worked is patient proning, also avoiding putting a breathing tube in."


    as i understand it hospitalizations across the state remain up. ours may be sightly trending down.

    in other words, reading between the lines of the above, we are admitting more people, but "turning them around" quicker. i don't know if that means better therapies or simply getting people to a level where they can be discharged to clear beds.

    however, we are also accumulating more in-patients than before, and those numbers have not dropped. eg people on vents.

    i find this all interesting so don't get all excited like your trolling is making me look at things i don't already. i was reading up on r-zeroes and such long before i mentioned them here. the sad part is then living in a world where so many people are indifferent to or actively contesting the accepted science you just learned.

    setting aside abstracted science, there are a list of countries who have done this far better and been able to reopen economic life as well. it's a joke to listen to defeatists or politicians act like it's economy vs health or pretend like we've done anything but a top 10 worst in the world job with this. at a point i start to not even care why, because it's like listening to someone try and justify lopez for 3 years or landin for a year and a half. i start to get fed up because the rest of us are trapped at length in your never-ending cluster f*ck. there are countries in the world where the new cases are zeroed and you can walk around and act quasi-normal. i am at a loss why their ideas are so scary to y'all, particularly because you pretend it's all about the economy. you know what's good for the economy? normalcy. you might try policies better designed to get you there.
     
  22. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #2773 juvechelsea, Jul 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
    Celt-
    I hear you. However there are countries like Japan where as few as 2 people get shot in a year. To extend my comparison, it's like how many people get plague in the SW USA each year from getting bit by a desert rat. How? Walking around with a gun is illegal and possession gets you a long sentence. You can go visit your gun in controlled circumstances at a gun club.

    Australia and others have slightly more liberal but relative to here, "control" policies. You rare-to-never hear of mass shootings, and their gun crime is so far down from here it's not funny. We mock obedience of such efforts but the numbers speak for themselves.

    Our gun crime stats are like emerging country/third world bad. We lag the entire industrial world on those stats.

    I get you're saying the virus is not targeting people, but the parallel actually works. Our coronavirus stats mirror the emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India) or the absolute worst industrial countries (UK), and are far behind NZ, Taiwan, etc. There are countries out there where the sick are in the hundreds or low thousands. Where the dead can be counted on as little as two hands, or in the hundreds at worst.

    There is what works. And there is what doesn't. On far too many issues in this country we do things that work demonstrably less well for our citizens "because rights," "because politics," "because that's socialism."

    And then the amusing part is I get to then listen to the same people who got us in these pickles with their broad concepts of gun rights or opposition to public health measures, blaming the cities where their policies play out. As though it's a liberal problem that if you pour guns and virus into a country people will die in the cities. Where else? Bubba out in Bastrop doesn't have as many neighbors to get sick or take a bullet from. We live in a place with people on top of people. What do you think happens when you dump guns or disease into that mix?

    And if you want to really cook your noodle it would be that the only thing saving us from looking even worse is our health care system. We have let the virus so free it should be worse. But our infected/dead ratio has stayed at about 1/20 -- when some are as low as 1/10 -- and I wouldn't be surprised if that's our level of medicine bailing us somewhat out of our own stupidity. At which point Westie would point out the hospitals have discharged some people and it's all working just fine he'd say. When the reality is only countries that screw up fill their hospitals in the first place. Taiwan has like 400 total confirmed cases and 7 dead last I checked. Everyone was accounted for as either dead or recovered.

    To pierce some rote assumptions here -- They don't assume testing finds cases. They've tested tens of thousands and only ever found 400 or so people. Are their hospitals full? No. We're projecting our bad decisions and consequences outward.

    It's like we live in some oddly stubborn but mopey bubble where we just have to endure.

    And you're like shut up and take it to another thread while we run a makeup tournament in a bubble from which 2 teams have already been punted, where sick players have been quarantined. And where we have no idea if the season continues from here. To me it's relevant because dump policies only extend out this absurd purgatory/hell. You want normal soccer? Play along with the rules for a while. If we can't behave or limit ourselves, this is our new friend for years. We'll see if soccer can survive without fans. We'll see if Canada even lets us in for games.
     
  23. 7seven7

    7seven7 Member+

    May 5, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    he is stealing my money (by proxy admittedly) is what he's doing!!
    he is demonstrably NOT awesome. when the ball comes to him only two things happen...he loses it or he launches it. He doesn't deserve to play much less be a starter

    and as far as working hard, i'll reach to my tired ol expression about that...
    My washing machine works hard too. Doesn't mean i want it on my team.
     
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  24. 7seven7

    7seven7 Member+

    May 5, 2008
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    any chance, now that we have soccer to talk about, that we can move the Fox News vs MSNBC show to another thread?

    I respectfully appeal to your sense of humility and reservation
     

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