PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

This poll will close on Nov 6, 2020 at 11:36 AM.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    At least when you are scamming old people by doing fake home roofing or driveways, you first have to go home to home to collect their money. In this gig you just sit back and watch the money roll in.
     
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  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I will wait until we can fact check her driving :p
     
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  3. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mathematics is why I haven't QUITE gotten so exercised about Republican gerrymandering. Yes, it's shitty, and yes, it's the reason why redistricting should be taken out of the hands of state legislatures.

    BUT...

    They've managed to create a lot of D districts that are nigh-unflippable, while creating a lot of districts for themselves that are quite flippable in wave elections... as we saw in 2018.
     
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  4. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Yep and probably the only reason all 8 MD congressional districts aren't Democratic is MD legislatures desire to make the 7 Democratic districts safe.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  5. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The R leadership must be seriously concerned to try that spin.

    Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district,” Roll Call reports.
    Said GOP Whip Steve Scalise: “You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.”
    President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.
     
  6. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gonna be honest.. Her J-turn was just okay.. Obviously the intent of it was different since she was just looking to 180 and stop the car rather than the more standard technique of driving it away after, but I would have liked to see the turn be a bit snappier instead of the slow drift they showed in the video... Of course, that could have been editing. ;)
     
  7. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mc Cready numbers are really looking good so far in NC-09....The Republican will need big numbers to overcome the early votes.
     
  8. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    McCready's narrow loss is explained by Dave Wasserman on his Twitter feed. A lot of people on this board don't and won't understand what he wrote because it's pretty self-explanatory and straightforward: Democrats will not win on their base alone.

    You wanna win? Appeal to 50+1% of the voting public.
     
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  9. ASU55RR

    ASU55RR Member+

    Jul 31, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY/Brno,CZ
    Club:
    FC Zbrojovka Brno
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    I mean, the Democrat base alone in NC 9 should lose by over 10% not ~2%.
     
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  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I assume he is talking nationally, not about this race.

    McCready was not a "base" democrat, but that is probably the point.
     
  11. ASU55RR

    ASU55RR Member+

    Jul 31, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY/Brno,CZ
    Club:
    FC Zbrojovka Brno
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    It was a bit of both, he said that if going into the night that if he heard the Democratic candidate would win the suburban county near Charlotte by 3% more than they did in 2018 he would think they would definitely win. It was offset by every rural county in the district moving 2+% more Republican... although really only one county swung drastically and it has a very elastic voting preference.

    The takeaway he proposes is that Democrats are underestimating where the floor is in rural areas for "anti-coastal elites" sentiment. He also injected that the best way to combat that in a district like that is a candidate that will turn out black voters. Presumably with the primary looking more and more like it is down to three candidates, he is sort of implying that Sanders or Warren would be a bad decision electorally.

    The problem I have with that viewpoint, there really isn't much sign of a significant shift in rural areas since the one that occurred in 2016. This was the first post-2018 special election with a significant suburban presence and it seems to show Democrats continuing, as in 2018, to over-perform significantly compared to 2016 and before. That would seemingly be a far bigger "base voter" concern for the Republicans going into 2020.
     
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  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have the same problem as well. Looking at the results, it is pretty safe to assume that Mc Creary over performed in R+12 District. NC-09 have not elected a Democrat since 1962!! It is pretty amazing that he came that close.
    As a matter of fact, as other pundits and specialists mentioned this am, this result should scare the living hell out of a lot of R in marginal seats (close to 50 of them).
     
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  13. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dude did try to run away from the liberal wing of the Democratic party, Republicans tried to make him look like he was in line with the "squad".

    That is what "moderate" candidates will face in the election, it will be the same for both sides.

    Repugs will be attacked by being associated with Trump, Dems will be attacked by association with the squad.

    I assume his point is that Sanders and Warren as the top of the ticket makes that association easier for republicans to make, but even if it is Biden, they will still run negative adds trying to paint any dem as liberal as the squad (or Pelosi).

    So I am not really sure how much difference will it rally make overall.
     
  14. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mccready’s slogan was literally Country Over Party.
     
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  15. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Just as well he didn't win. He'd be primaried with an attitude like that.
     
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  16. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Give it 2 to 3 cycles and it will be competitive, maybe even with the next one with the right Dem candidate. It is getting a lot of outflow from Milwaukee and there are a lot of new, trendy apartments going up (bringing in a wide diversity of people). I worked the polls at a precinct which had a new, multi-hundred unit "urban" apartment complex which went up, and a lot of them were POC.

    But this is more notable than perhaps it is on the surface as Sensenbrenner is very much aligned with Individual One.
     
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  17. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    2 tweets for you






    Is the second tweet correct? Could Kansas be in play?
     
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  18. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Kobach is the R nominee, yes. If it is Pompeo, it may be a step too high.
     
  19. SetPeace

    SetPeace Member+

    Jun 22, 2004
    SC Illinois
    Club:
    Torquay United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Now that Pompeo has been subpoenaed to either appear in front of the House Intelligence Committee or provide documents that were requested several weeks ago by the committee, he may come out looking like a louse. His political career could be seriously damaged depending on how deep he's implicated in this apparent scandal involving President 45.
     
  20. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    This being Kansas, it might make him more popular, though.
     
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  21. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  22. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An other one is out....Collins was one of the first to endorse Trump.

     
  23. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Our two Republican quitters tonight hail from Texas and Prison, respectively.
     
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  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I already thought of that:

    1. The incumbent is retiring.
    2. The Democrats won the governor.
    3. The Democrats won one of four House districts and made another district close. Statewide House votes had Republicans 9.41% above Democrats, which is way down from the 32.09% gap two years earlier in 2016.

    The Republicans are still big favorites as of now, but it can help Democrats if Republicans need to spend national money they hoped to spend elsewhere. New Jersey re-elected Senator Bob Menendez by 11.2% last year, but I read that it was a victory for the Republicans because of how much money the Democrats needed to spend.

    District 1, which has a Republican, has its lines drawn somewhat logically. It includes the eastern section that is separated by water from the rest of the state. The eastern section has Salisbury and beaches. That apparently doesn't have enough people to be the whole district, so it also includes northern Maryland. Purely by geography, it should go farther south in Baltimore County not including any of the city but including more of the suburbs. Instead, suburbs on different sides of the city are in the same district, and District 1 goes farther west where the population density is lower. Following geography would have it exchange voters with Districts 2 (D+11), 3 (D+13), and/or 7 (D+26), which is represented by Elijah Cummings. Given that Andy Harris won by 21.9%, a minor change in the boundaries wouldn't have changed who won. In order for Democrats to win every district, districts would need to include places east and west of the water rather than grouping the eastern people together.

    The Cook PVI has 192 D+ districts, 8 Even districts, and 235 R+ districts. The Democrats need a wave election to control the House. The Democrats need to win R+ districts to control the House, but the Republicans don't need to win D+ districts to control the House. In the Senate, the Republicans have the advantage because they do better in states with lower populations rather than because of district lines, but it's still an advantage. There are 20 D+ states, 3 Even states, and 27 R+ states. Giving each part both seats from states that favor their party and one seat from each Even state would make 57 Republicans and 43 Democrats. Counting the Independents as Democrats, here is the Senate breakdown, with a * meaning he or she is up for re-election in 2020:

    40 senators from D+ states: 38 D and 2 R (Susan Collins from ME* and Cory Gardner from CO*)

    6 senators from Even states: 4 D (Maggie Hassan from NH, Jeanne Shaheen from NH*, Bob Casey Jr. from PA, and Tammy Duckworth from WI) and 2 R (Pat Toomey from PA and Ron Johnson from WI)

    54 senators: 49 R and 5 D (Doug Jones from AL*, Kyrsten Sinema from AZ, Jon Tester from MT, Sherrod Brown from OH, and Joe Manchin from WV)
     
  25. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    That's quite a bit more than a mere advantage. The Republicans haven't had as many as 57 Senate seats during our lifetime. If they didn't have this structural advantage, the Senate would almost always be a Democratic majority.

    The arrangement is a handout for Republicans. Those who defend it are implicitly defending the Republicans receiving a huge ongoing leg up in controlling the Senate, whether they recognize that or not.
     
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