PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

This poll will close on Nov 6, 2020 at 11:36 AM.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  2. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    It reminds me of Life of Brian.
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_gubernatorial_elections#Massachusetts says Republican governor Charlie Baker was re-elected with over two-thirds of the votes. I read that he signed a law supporting LGBTQ+ rights. Maine had a Republican governor who vetoed a bill supporting LGBTQ+ rights, and after his term limit the Democrats gained that governor.

    PA, OH, MI, and WI have way more electoral votes than IA. I'd expect candidates to focus on the eastern part of the midwest and FL. MI is the only one of those with a Democratic senator up for re-election, Gary Peters. Of the nine states with one senator from each party (for ME an Independent and a Republican):

    AL has a Democrat up for re-election
    AZ, CO, ME, MT, and WV have Republicans up for re-election (the last two are safe)
    OH, PA, WI do not have a Senate election

    The Democrats have a majority of the House seats in AZ, CO, and ME (both); and the governors of CO and ME.

    I'm not defending Roy Moore, but in terms of predicting an election between Jones and Moore, I'm worried that it doesn't take many people to forgive Moore or forget about what he did to make him win. In the special election, it was a big nationwide story. Even if Moore is nominated, every individual Senate race will get little national attention compared to the president. Furthermore, if any Republicans thought that Moore couldn't lose and didn't vote in the special election, that won't happen again.

    As a person nearby, I'll comment on NY-01. Democrat Tim Bishop won 6 times. The fourth win was over Lee Zeldin, 58.6%-41.4%. Randy Altschuler challenged Bishop the next two times, with Bishop holding on 50.2%-49.8% and 52.2%-47.8%. In 2014, Zeldin defeated Bishop 53.2%-44.6%. In 2016, Zeldin won by more, 55.2%-39.6%. Last year Zeldin won 52.5%-45.0%. Newsday said they stopped liking Zeldin, and they endorsed Perry Gershon, who lost. It's not an easy Democratic gain, but it's possible. In NY-27, Chris Collins won 49.1%-48.8% after being arrested by the FBI for insider trading and lying about it.

    I have family in NE-2, which you didn't list, where Republican Don Bacon won consecutive close elections, 51.0%-49.0% in 2018 and 48.9%-47.7% in 2016 defeating Democratic incumbent Brad Ashford. NE has an urban district, a suburban district, and a rural district that's one of the ten largest in terms of area showing its low population density. NE-2 gave Obama an electoral vote in 2008, so in addition to the House the Democrats could try to win that district in one of two states that isn't winner take all.

    Florida does not have a Senate election.

    Arguably the most famous black Republican is Clarence Thomas, who has a chance to break the record for days on the Supreme Court. If he stays, he would break the record at age 79. Justices are defined as "liberal" and "conservative" rather than "Democrat" and "Republican," but I think it's safe to assume that he votes for Republicans on election days.

    Districts 5 through 9 are in or near Phoenix with small areas, and 3 of those 5 have Republicans. Districts 1 through 4 have larger areas, and 3 of them have Democrats. The area ranks are 11th, 94th, 42nd, 23rd, 343rd, 298th, 372nd, 304th, and 391st. District 2, which is the smallest of the big four, has an area 21.44 times the mean area of the five small districts. It doesn't follow the expectation that rural people are Republicans.
     
  4. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They do in 2022.
     
  5. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You should start a thread about 2022 then.
     
  6. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    1) It's far too early for a 2022 thread.
    2) You should read my post as a mea culpa, not a "well ackshually" and I apologize for the misunderstanding. In fact, I repped @EvanJ 's post because he caught the mistake and added some real value to the thread.
     
  7. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've long been thinking that Hick has sort of been running for Gardner's seat for a while. He's in the news damn near everyday in Colorado for his presidential run. Meanwhile, I don't think you could find more than 5% of 10% of folks who can name even one of the current declared Democratic candidates for Gardner's seat.

    If he drops out of the presidential race and launches a Senate run, he's instantly the front-runner, not just for the Democratic nomination, but for the general election. He's pretty popular in Colorado as a two-term governor, and while his centricism has been a drag on his presidential campaign, it's perfect for winning a statewide election in a purple state like Colorado, especially against a Senator who's harrumphed loudly about Trump's excesses, but voted with him.
     
  8. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Gardner's gotta go. Talk aside, he's a Trumpster. And there should be place for Trumpsters in purple/blue states.
     
  9. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mc Sally is not in a good spot in Az.

     
    SetPeace and Funkfoot repped this.
  10. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Bye Bye Corey.....We hardly knew ya!

    Hickenlooper Will Run for Senate
    Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) announced that he will run for Senate, the Denver Postreports.
    Said Hickenlooper: “I’ve always said Washington was a lousy place for a guy like me who wants to get things done — but this is no time to walk away from the table. I’m not done fighting for the people of Colorado.
    A new Emerson poll shows Hickenlooper beating Sen. Cory Garner 53% to 40%.
     
    Funkfoot repped this.
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Washington governor is also out.
     
  12. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's telling that you don't even know his name. :D
     
    onefineesq repped this.
  13. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    J
     
  14. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Apparently this R congressman has a history of extramarital affairs in addition to some sexual assault rumors. The Republican leadership is trying to push him out before stories come out in the open.

    Rep. Steve Watkins (R-KS) “declined to answer news reporters’ questions at a campaign event Thursday amid a flurry of bipartisan speculation his career in Congress could come to an abrupt end after eight months in office,” the Topeka Capital-Journal reports.
    “Instead, he bolted into a waiting vehicle and sped away.”
    “Republicans in Kansas and Washington, D.C., were pressuring Watkins to step down, but the reason for the possible resignation wasn’t certain.”
     
  15. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    In this forum?
     
  16. SetPeace

    SetPeace Member+

    Jun 22, 2004
    SC Illinois
    Club:
    Torquay United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I like Jay Inslee. Too bad his candidacy didn't gain much support. He'd be a good EPA director if the Democrats take the White House next year. But he probably would not take the job if he gets re-elected Governor of Washington.
     
  17. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    More headache for Mitch....Now they will have 2 seats to defend in 2020.

    Sen. Johnny Isakson “said he was stepping down from office at the end of 2019 as he struggles with Parkinson’s disease, setting up two elections for U.S. Senate in Georgia in 2020,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
    “A four-decade veteran of Georgia politics, Isakson has served in the U.S. Senate since 2005. He won his third term in 2016 by a comfortable margin and isn’t up for re-election until 2022. “
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  18. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wonder if that changes Abrams' mind. Probably not; she says she wants another shot at Kemp in 2022, so it's not like she was waiting to take on Isakson.
     
  19. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think she has her sight on Kemp for 2022, unless she goes on a ticket with Biden as a VP. In the later case, she could energize the Ga electorate as well and provide some tail winds to down ballots in the state.
     
  20. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    John Shimkus (R-IL, PVI R+21) retiring. He had been redistricted out of his seat twice already and faced those same prospects in 2022, so I think he's tapping out again. Easy GOP hold, but shows that being in the minority stinks.
     
  21. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It also shows, I think, that these guys retiring aren’t optimistic about regaining the majority in 2022. They’re probably right; assuming the Dems have a good 2020 in legislative races, redistricting is going to make 2022 a potential 3rd straight tough House year for GOPs. I would guess that a party hasn’t had 3 straight gaining years either ever, or since the Dems 1930-1934. (Too lazy to look it up.)

    That would, in turn, set up more retirements, meaning fewe and fewer GOPs running as incumbents.
     
    American Brummie repped this.
  22. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    Don't drink beer but like cheese
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This will take more research than I have time for right now, but your comment made me wonder what other time this could be like. I'm wondering if this is similar to some period during the Civil Rights of the 1950s or 1960s or so when the economy changed and there were more movment of the non-White population into historically White areas. The side effect was bringing in new voices to the conversation which reflected the changes which were taking place. And that is kind of what I am seeing now with The Squad and others speaking out against Individual One and the like in a new way form the previous incarnation of the Dem reps.
     
  23. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It only briefly happened in 1988, 1990, and 1992 but the gains were modest to an already sizeable Democratic majority and the GOP was trying for its longest control of the Presidency since Hoover.
     
  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #99 EvanJ, Sep 2, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2019
    He won 47.6-46.8. If the Democrats can hold District 3, where Sharice Davids defeated Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder by 9.7 percent, and gain District 2, the Democrats would have half of the House seats in Kansas.

    Louisiana and Georgia have elections that won't be decided on Election Day if nobody gets a majority. They have a "jungle primary" because it includes multiple candidates from multiple parties rather than separate primaries before Election Day. Mississippi had that last year. It's possible that Louisiana will be decided on December 5, and Georgia could be decided on January 5, 2021. After Election Day, we might not know what party controls the Senate, and a lot of late effort could be put into Georgia if it is up for grabs. In Louisiana, nobody from any party has announced a challenge to Bill Cassidy. The first primaries are on March 3, and that's in four states. Arkansas may not be interesting, and so far one Democrat and no Republicans have challenged Republican Tom Cotton. Texas is the most populated state with Republican senators, Alabama has Roy Moore running, and North Carolina is a seat the Democrats hope to gain. Alabama has eight Republicans and no Democratic primary challenger. Texas has eight Democrats, one Independent, and no Republican primary challenger. North Carolina has four Democrats, two Republican primary challengers, and a Libertarian. Alabama has the first filing deadline, and that's November 8. Nine states have their filing deadline under six months before Election Day.

    According to Wikipedia, his district is 93.6 percent White.
     
  25. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nice break for Chuck Schumer here. Manchin would be hard to replace as a Dem senator in W.Va.

    Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will not run for West Virginia governor in 2020, the Washington Post reports.
     

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