PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Lisa Murkowski is way more popular among Alaska Dems than GOPs. Point being, she has two choices for 2022. Either get beat in a primary and do the write in thing again, or declare herself another Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Dems. (I know Bernie is the same, but Bernie isn't a centrist; he's an independent because the Dems are too far right for him.)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/10/1959701/-It-s-time-for-Lisa-Murkowski-to-leave-the-GOP

"Amazingly, among Republicans, those job approval numbers are an eye-popping 17-71%! She is loathed inside her own party. Meanwhile, Democrats’ approvals of her are at 41-41%!"

This also probably has some meaning for the AK senate and house races, but damned if I know what that is.

And of course you know what's coming

Hey @LisaMurkowski - I can see 2022 from my house...

— Sarah Palin (@SarahPalinUSA) October 5, 2018

will lead to this

 

What the hell.......

The lovely Amy McGrath is a Marine Corps veteran. The average donation to her campaign is $36.

Mitch McConnell is a broken-down old man owed by cheap labor lobbyists.#DefeatMcConnell

— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) July 10, 2020

 

Well... there has always been claims that Coulter’s hardcore Conservativism was always an act that she player because she found out she could make bank with it..

 

So, she was Candace Owens BEFORE Candace Owens?

 

On another note though (separate from my previous reply to this), there was a great episode of THE BOONDOCKS in which your claim was backed by the storyline. She had a big "roughneck" Black dude as a boyfriend (who had dreads I think) who she ran to as soon as she finished her crazy racist spiel on camera.

 

You understand hybrid warfare? Mutually benefit objectives. When those objectives are no longer aligned alliances shift.

You also understand that “Trump & Trumpism” are their targets and they are planning beyond the general election right?

That being said, I hope the left is paying attention to how dynamic and effective they are at getting the message out.

Near term objectives are my priority, and I can “adjust fire” as needed

 

The Meidas Touch and Lincoln Project folks are all millionaires. Democrats running for state rep & senate seats in swing states aren't. Donate to them instead -- your money will go farther, and if the candidate wins, it'll have legs.

I'm going to see if the DataForProgress folks who did "Give Smart" in 2018 have the same thing planned for 2020.

Taking back state-houses is the underfunded key to this whole damn thing.

EDIT: Looks like FutureNow is where it's at these days: https://www.futurenow.org/

 

...and they have YOUR money to use against all of us.
A few weeks ago, I was "thisclose" to donating to them, for many of the reasons you have raised in your posts.
Then I thought about who they are and how bright Schmidt and Wilson (and, likely, the rest of them) are and it occurred to me how dangerous they can be.

Yes, and that is my fear.
Their target beyond the general election will likely be Democrats.
They are fine tuning their attacks and their presentation.
Pivoting to attack Biden, Pelosi, et al will be a piece a cake. Admittedly, it will not be "as easy" as Trump, but it won't be difficult, either.

Republicans understand the long game, way better than Democrats.
Look at their "judicial training" program. They have been dogged in grooming law students for decades and it has been a spectacular success for them (to the detriment of the nation).
Hell, the Kochs have been at it for over 40 years and it only started paying dividends in the past decade or so.

 

Good points... [emoji33]

For now, I want to see their ad broadcast on TV to counter that dumb disingenuous Trump 911 ad I’m seeing on CNN and MSNBC....

 

I know Twitter is not exactly representative of the Maine voters but that is pretty epic. Collins posted some silly tweet about unemployment fraud, she got around 150 Likes and 10 times more comments dragging here all over the place and also linking to Gideon's fundraising (her opponent). Susan is really clueless.

An unemployment insurance fraud ring has been targeting Maine & other states, stealing from taxpayers & delaying benefits for legitimate filers. I wrote to the DOL's IG seeking info on stopping these criminals who are exploiting COVID-19 for their own gainhttps://t.co/tRg4WTyO8l

— Sen. Susan Collins (@SenatorCollins) July 11, 2020

 

Ok, this is what I'm looking for: a list of swing state legislature seats in swing states. These are the races that can give us control of state houses and put an end to gerrymandering and voter suppression, which are the twin Holy Grails for Dems right now.

Full list:

• MICHIGAN: We need just 4 seats to flip the MI House blue

• TEXAS: We need 9 seats to flip the TX House blue

• WISCONSIN: We need 3 seats to flip the WI Senate blue

• OHIO: Flipping either body is unlikely, but we can certainly make major gains in both.

• FLORIDA: We need 4 seats to flip the FL Senate blue (and can make gains in the House)

• GEORGIA: Flipping either body is unlikely, but we can make gains in both

• ARIZONA: We need 2 seats to flip the House and 3 seats to flip the Senate

• NORTH CAROLINA: We need 5 seats to flip the Senate and 6 to flip the House

• PENNSYLVANIA: We need 5 seats to flip the Senate and 9 to flip the House

Given the demographic shifts of the past four years and those expected over the next four, ending voter suppression could just about take some of these states off the table in presidential elections while ending gerrymandering could put the House out of reach.

Then there's the simple matter of local stuff like medicare expansion and the end of ridiculous crap like the trans bathroom laws (and such) that the NCGOP etc have put into place.

If you want to permanently change the country, this is the best bang for your buck.

 

Yes, I want them to devastate Trump with ads on Fox and OANN.
And then go away.
Just don't think the second part will happen.

I should mention that my criticism of Schmidt and Wilson comes from respect. They about the only Republican strategists I respect. But that respect is mixed with more than a bit of fear.
They are so good at this, that they could be terrifying in the future.

 

That woman really wants to lose.... That should be an other ad right there.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) compared the police officer who killed George Floyd to the Justice Department officials investigating Donald Trump, during an interview with a local radio station earlier this month.

"The example of George Floyd, you know, that was a bad actor, a bad policeman. We do have bad actors at the FBI and Justice Department as well," Ernst told KXEL, an Iowa talk radio station, on July 3 referring to investigations into Trump prior to the 2016 election.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...who-killed-George-Floyd?utm_campaign=trending

 

Not shocking at all. This same cabal loves to compare relatively trivial things (like wearing masks) to events like the holocaust and slavery all the time. So this is pretty much par for the course.

 

Her supporters think this is a Lib-owning comeback.

 

Does it matter that much? Not really!

#NE02 GE:
Kara Eastman (D) 50% (+1)
Don Bacon (R-inc) 49%
.
Biden 51% (+7)
Trump 44%@GQRResearch/@karaforcongress Internal Poll 6/30-7/5

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 13, 2020

Does it make me feel good? You betcha!

FWIW, Eastman is VERY far left, endorsed by the Justice Democrats, AOC, DSA, etc. If she's able to win a purple seat it could be a bellwether.

And if she becomes the Sherrod Brown of Nebraska some day, that'd be dope as hell.

 

GOP base activists love to hate McConnell (they view him in the same way they viewed John Boehner), but actively promoting Amy McGrath is sort of insane - and probably not really welcomed by McGrath.

It won't matter anyways - McConnell isn't losing

 

I saw a Thom Tillis ad and it was about being anti-China. I saw a Cal Cunningham ad and it was him saying he'll stand up to his party when it's best for NC.

 

Listing all of today's Congressional primaries:

Senate:

Alabama R runoff (see above)

Texas D runoff (see above)

Maine R original (Susan Collins vs. write-in Amy Colter)

Maine D original (Sara Gideon favored over Bre Kidman and Betsy Sweet)
Eight Independents are running in the general election. Maine uses ranked choice voting, where voters rank all the candidates, which can produce a different winner if nobody gets a majority. Bottom candidates are removed and their votes are given to whichever remaining candidate they preferred until somebody gets a majority. If Collins and Gideon are close, it's possible that nobody will get a majority. Candidates are removed one at a time unless it is certain that more than one needs to be removed to produce a majority. For example, if ten candidates get 47.0, 46.0, 4.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.4 percent, third through tenth are reallocated in one step because even if fourth through tenth all preferred first over second, it would only make 49.8 percent.

House:

Alabama runoff in 1 for both and 2 for R

Maine 2 for R: Adrienne Bennett, Eric Brakey, and Dale Crafts to challenge Democrat Jared Golden, who who defeated Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin in 2018 two years after Trump won the district by over 10 percent. Golden doesn't have a primary challenger, and each party has one candidate in District 1, so primaries aren't needed. Democrat Chellie Pingree, who is in her sixth term, will face Republican Jay Allen in November.

Texas runoffs in 3 for D, 10 for D, 13 for R, 15 for R, 16 for R, 17 for both, 18 for R, 20 for R, 22 for R, 23 for R, 24 for D, 31 for D, and 35 for R. That's a total of 5 for D and 9 for R. There are 36 districts.

These are the last primaries of July. After today, 13 of 35 Senate seats will not have had primaries, including Louisiana and Georgia's special election that won't have anything until Election Day. 19 states will not have had House primaries, including Louisiana that won't have anything until Election Day. After today, there will be no Senate runoffs, four House runoffs in Georgia, and one House runoff in Oklahoma. No other states have runoffs scheduled for after today, and no states with primaries today or later can have runoffs except for Louisiana and Georgia's special election that will have runoffs after Election Day if they are necessary.

 

As expected...

Decision Desk HQ projects Sara Gideon has won the ME Senate Democratic Primary.

Race called at 09:06 PM Easternhttps://t.co/EXQs7EI4Kf

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 15, 2020

She's already raised something like $10m, and now has another $5m coming her way from the money raised after the Kavanaugh confirmation.

LFG Sara!

 

That probably does not bode well for Jones.