2020 Division I Ratings, Scheduling, Bracketology, Etc.

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by cpthomas, Jan 12, 2020.

  1. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here we go with 2020!:)

    I've justed posted a new Team Histories and Simulated 2020 Ranks Excel workbook at the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website, at the NCAA Tournament: Scheduling Towards the Tournament page. It's an attachment at the bottom of that page.

    This is the second year I've done the workbook. Its main purpose is to be a resource for coaches in scheduling for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. It includes a detailed page for each team, with fancy tables and charts. It also includes a basic historic rating and rank data page that includes teams' coaches and their lengths of tenure. And it includes data summary pages. And, it includes my pre-season simulated RPI ratings and ranks for the upcoming 2020 season. Finally, its first page is a User Guide that explains in detail what's in the workbook and how a coach can use it as a scheduling aid.

    It's a big workbook, too big to use by trying to open it directly from the website. So, if you're interested in having it, you'll need to download it from the website using the download arrow to the right of the attachment link. If you have trouble downloading it, you can PM me with an email address and I can try emailing it to you.

    If you decide to download it and dive in, I strongly recommend you read the User Guide as your first step.
     
    socalsoccer23 repped this.
  2. soccersubjectively

    soccersubjectively BigSoccer Supporter

    Jan 17, 2012
    Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hey CP, maybe a dumb question but have you noticed any correlation with teams' drop off vs. number of minutes lost to graduating players? Or is there not that strong of a correlation there?
     
  3. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's outside the kind of work I do. But Chris Henderson, at All White Kit, very well might be able to give you a good answer on that. I know that he tracks players lost to graduation when he assesses how teams will do next year.
     
    soccersubjectively repped this.
  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As some of you know, I maintain the website RPI for Division I Women's Soccer. As part of Google's transition to a new Google Sites version and of my annual updating of the tables and charts at the website, I've gone through and updated all of the website's pages. Much of what's at the website remains unchanged, but there are two pages where I've made significant changes:

    1. On the RPI: Modified RPI? page, I've introduced an Improved RPI that I've recommended to some of the members of the Women's Soccer Committee and to the NCAA's RPI staff. The Improved RPI uses the RPI's basic approach, but makes some very big improvements. In terms of its effect, the Improved RPI would:

    a. Produce ratings that are more consistent with actual game results (though not by a large margin);

    b. Do a much better job of rating teams from conferences fairly in relation to teams from other conferences; and

    c. Greatly reduce the differences between teams' RPI ranks and their ranks as contributors to their opponents' RPI strengths of schedule, which would be a great benefit to coaches in non-conference scheduling. With the Improved RPI, coaches would be able to schedule non-conference opponents based strictly on their anticipated RPI ranks rather than having also to consider their anticipated ranks as RPI strength of schedule contributors.

    d. Produce RPI ranks that are more consistent with the Women's Soccer Committee's actual NCAA Tournament decisions, in particular decisions on at large selections.
    There is no chance that the NCAA will make significant changes to the RPI unless it is put under great pressure to do it. So I'm hoping that coaches and conferences will become familiar with the Improved RPI and weigh in with their Women's Soccer Committee representatives on why the NCAA needs to make its changes.

    2. On the NCAA Tournament: Scheduling Towards the Tournament page, I've set out a non-conference scheduling strategy for teams that have NCAA tournament aspirations. In addition, for conferences that have NCAA tournament multiple team aspirations, I've suggested a non-conference scheduling strategy that differentiates between the conference's teams with realistic tournament aspirations and the ones that realistically aren't going to be in the tournament at this point in time.

    If you're aleady familiar with the website, you might want to check out the two pages with significant changes. If you aren't familiar with it and are interested in the RPI and how it works or in the NCAA Tournament seeding and and at large selection process, then you definitely should check it out.​
     
    L'orange and BreakfastBlend repped this.
  5. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If anyone has tried to download some documents from the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website (I know that some have), I believe I've fixed the problem and they now should be downloadable. My apologies, in the transition to the new Google sites, there were some new things I had to do with permissions that I wasn't aware of. If you try and still have problems, PM me and I'll see what I can do.
     
  6. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've justed posted a significantly updated Team Histories and Simulated 2020 Ranks workbook (Version 2) at the RPI for Division I Women's Soccer website. It's an Excel workbook attachment towards the bottom of the NCAA Tournament: Scheduling Towards the Tournament page. If you'd like to download it, there are instructions on how to do the download next to the icon for the workbook. I think I've mastered how to create the right permissions to allow you to download attachments, so hopefully you won't have a problem. Let me know if you do.

    Although there are some minor updates included in the new workbook, there is one big change. The change is to how I've simulated teams' 2020 ranks as strength of schedule contributors. Those ranks are quite important when teams are doing non-conference scheduling with a view to how opponents will affect their RPI ratings. The change is the result of a question from an assistant coach about whether there might be a better way to forecast potential opponents' ranks as SoS contributors, so thanks for that question.:thumbsup:

    In previous versions of the workbook, in forecasting teams' likely ranks as strength of schedule contributors, I used their average SoS contributor ranks since 2007. The question I received was whether it might be better simply to use teams' last year's SoS contributor ranks. Due to (1) individual teams' year to year variability and (2) my having concluded from past studies that there are better ways to forecast teams' future ranks than simply using last year's ranks, I thought that particular suggestion wouldn't be the way to go. But, I thought the gist of the question -- whether using teams' average SoS contributor ranks was the best way to do it -- was something to pursue. The result, after some programming research and a lot of thought, is that I was able to come up with a way to relate forecasts of teams' SoS contributor ranks to their forecast ARPI ranks. The method I've come up with generates a team-specific formula, derived from the team's historic ARPI rank and SoS contributor rank data, that relates the team's forecast ARPI rank to what its SoS contributor rank is most likely to be for that forecast ARPI rank. There's an explanation and illustration of how this works in the workbook's User Guide.

    So, if you're a coach who's been using the workbook, you should download the new workbook and use it rather than the earlier version. And if you haven't seen or used it yet, check it out.

    As always, let me know if you have any problems of questions.:geek:
     
    soccersubjectively and L'orange repped this.
  7. BreakfastBlend

    BreakfastBlend Red Card

    Ajax
    United States
    Feb 11, 2020
    Any college coaches out there heard from their administrations about how they think the fall will be affected by this? I’m hearing from several schools summer camps will be cancelled, and a couple of people have even mentioned they were told the fall season could be delayed. Anyone else heard the same?
     
  8. L'orange

    L'orange Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Jul 20, 2017
    Maybe I'm naive but I have to think there will be college soccer in the fall. I mean, CV may still be around but we should have a pretty good handle on the problem within a couple/three months, I hope. You can't completely eliminate risk from any activity, and young people by and large seem pretty resistant to the virus. You'd probably want social distancing among spectators or maybe you don't have spectators if there are worries or cases in the area. Certainly, right now some pockets of the country are more problematic than others--it seems that a large number of states don't really have a serious CV problem--and will have to be more closely watched. It's going to be a fluid situation, as they say, for at least another several weeks.
     
  9. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    You could be right "by and large", but in fact I can tell you from the Italian experience that there are young people who suffered from very severe CV-caused syndromes and I read today that a 21 yo young woman in England "is believed to be the youngest person with no pre-existing health conditions to have died after contracting coronavirus".

    The idea that CV only affects people over some particular threshold-age is only partially true: no doubt that the young victims are clearly a minority, but CV can be very dangerous and potentially lethal for young people too.
     
  10. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    I don't think there are very many soccer programs that depend on gate ticket money. Playing the games without spectators (or perhaps with each player limited to inviting 2 family members) is still a possibility - assuming that the theory that young people are immune still holds up by Summer.
     
  11. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    In any infectious disease outbreak, the elderly are more susceptible than the general population simply because of the weaknesses that are part of getting old.
     
    Respect the Game repped this.
  12. Respect the Game

    PSG
    United States
    Apr 17, 2019
    USA
    #12 Respect the Game, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
    Thanks Blissett. Very sad for that family.

    My questions which are not covered in any news from UK I have read thus far (not a fan of The Sun as many times their coverage of items is equivalent to our National Enquirer).

    Was an autopsy performed? I understand that in nearly all cases, they are not. She very well could have had an undetected heart valve issue, could have been a smoker/vaper (very popular in uk youth).

    Did others in her group of friends or co-workers contract or become ill? If so, what is their current status?

    Did she receive yrly or even regularly medical check ups? Keep in mind the overall healthcare system in China, Italy and UK does not compare to US standards.

    Was she vaccinated? She she receive flu shot? Medical protocols that are followed in US make a difference as well.

    We have a lot of differences from country to country. For instance, our overall sanitation standards are different. We have an FDA and health dept standards both federal, state and each county or district.

    Very little real information on this young lady's death has been either obtained or reported or both.
     
  13. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It seems odd to be working on this given current world events, but the minutes of the January 2020 meeting of the Women’s Soccer Committee state that the Committee will be working with the NCAA staff on possible changes to the RPI formula. My understanding is that at least part of what the Committee is considering is possible changes to the bonus and penalty regime. Because of that, I have sent Committee members a background information resource memo on the good and bad of bonus and penalty adjustments, on two alternative versions of the RPI the Committee should consider, and on how to encourage teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations to play highly ranked opponents other than through the RPI bonuses. Here is a link to the memo: Background Information for Possible RPI Changes.

    If you are a coach of a team with NCAA Tournament aspirations, I strongly recommend you make yourself a copy of the memo, read it, and let any Committee member you know what you think the Committee should do or not do in terms of RPI formula changes.
     
    HeadSpun repped this.
  14. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If anyone tried to access the memo linked in the previous post and could not gain access to it, I have updated the sharing settings for the memo. It now should be fully accessible to everyone.
     
    Soccerguy1022 repped this.
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We do not know yet how this Division I women’s soccer year will end up, but conferences are starting to announce their plans for playing Fall sports in the Spring. Given that, I have been looking at the RPI so far as the Fall is concerned, how it might pan out if teams not playing in the Fall end up playing in the Spring, and problems the Women’s Soccer Committee might have to deal with when it comes to NCAA Tournament bracket formation. I have done a fairly technical write up on these questions and posted it at my RPI and Bracketology blog. If you are interested, you can find it here: The 2020-20201 Season: RPI Rating and Ranking Issues.
     
  16. sweepsit

    sweepsit Member

    Oct 25, 2016
    SF, California
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Do you know if teams playing in the Fall will also play a Spring season? Maybe non-conference only? Not sure how that'll work.
     
  17. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is up to them, except that for the entire season I believe they will be subject to the 20 game limit exclusive of conference tournments.

    I expect that at least the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 will play a significant number of Spring games against teams not in their conferences so that, in effect, their seasons will be the reverse of the normal non-conference first and then conference formats. In fact, it will be critical that they do this and include some out-of-region games, for the RPI to be meaningful.
     
  18. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Four conferences are playing their regular season competition in the Fall: ACC, Big 12, SEC, and Sun Belt. For fun and some educational value about models for producing pre-season ranks of teams, I have done a new article at the RPI and Bracketology blog comparing the pre-season conference ranks the conference coaches, Chris Henderson, and I assigned those conferences’ teams. If you are interested, you can find the article here: The 2020-21 Season: Pre-Season Conference Rankings.
     
  19. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #19 cpthomas, Oct 12, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
    For the Spring, the Mid American, Southland, and Southwestern AC have announced their plans for Spring soccer and the Southland and SWAC teams have posted their schedules of conference games. In going through the team schedules, it looks like at least the Southland and SWAC teams are able to play non-conference games if they want to and can fit them in.

    Also, keep an eye on the Metro Atlantic conference, which looks to me like it may have some as yet unannounced plans. Pertinent to what I have seen, the NCAA Division I Council is allowing schools to extend their seasons past the NCAA championship date for a sport so long as the seasons end at or before the end of the academic year.
     
  20. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Atlantic Sun conference has published its conference schedule for the Spring. Teams will be able to play non-conference games, but their published schedules currently show only the conference games.
     
  21. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For coaches and serious fans:

    I have posted a new article at the RPI and Bracketology blog: NCAA Tournament At Large Selections and Seeds: It’s "As If" This is How the Committee Thinks. The article describes updated work I have done analyzing the Women’s Soccer Committee’s NCAA tournament at large selections and seeds over the last 13 years by matching them with the factors the Committee considers and the data related to those factors. It also describes a system I have created based on the analysis that, when applied retroactively to the Committee decisions over the 13 years, produces decisions that come remarkably close to matching the Committee’s. Thus however the Committee makes its decisions, it is "as if" the Committee makes them the way my system does.

    I think the article particularly will be of interest to coaches with NCAA tournament at large selection and seed aspirations, as it shows that the Committee makes decisions "as if" certain factors are the most important. Knowing this can be particularly helpful in scheduling for future years. Those who are familiar with my work related to scheduling will see that this new work does not produce new insights as to how to schedule in relation to the NCAA tournament. The work, however, significantly reinforces the advice I have given in the past.
     
  22. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The America East will be playing in the Spring, with a 6 game conference schedule from March 7 to April 11. There will be a 4-team conference tournament at a single site with games on April 16 and 18. (I wonder about the tournament dates, as the NCAA seems to have said that the last date for games to be considered for NCAA tournament purposes is April 17. I also have wondered, however, whether the NCAA really meant the 17th rather than the 18th.)
     
  23. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    The America East with Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and Albany?? Outside in March? They better hope for a dry winter in the East like last year or they'll be lucky to get the games in between ski runs. One of the last things I did last year before the pandemic hit was ski on the weekend of March 7/8 and it was cold way south of these American East schools. Going to be interesting.
     
  24. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There is an interesting question about how many games teams can play in the combined Fall and Spring seasons. The Division 1 bylaws say that there is a limit of 20 contests during the segment in which the NCAA championship is conducted and 5 dates of competition during another segment. Ordinarily the latter dates of competition events are the Spring exhibition games and any exhibition games played before the first counting games are allowed in August -- which games are not counted for NCAA tournament at large selection and seeding purposes.

    The NCAA has said that this year, the Fall games teams are playing will be counted for purposes of NCAA tournament at large selections and seeds -- although it has allowed for the possibility of revisiting this once it see how things shape up for the Spring. The question is whether this means that teams actually will be allowed up to 25 contests. From what I have seen the answer to this is not clear. So far, at least one school (Central Arkansas) looks like it will be at 22 games.
     
  25. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Missouri Valley and Western Athletic conferences have announced plans for conference play in the Spring. The Missouri Valley has allowed teams to play non-conference games in the Fall (Missouri State being the only one to do it), so I am guessing their teams will be able to play non-conference games if they can fit them in. WAC has made no statement about non-conference games, but team from outside the conference has listed TexasRGV as a Spring opponent so I likewise am guessing they can play non-conference games if they can fit them in.
     

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