I truly think the summer is the highest value, at least if he plays well. This winter, teams would only have to wait 6 months to do a pre-contract. Same issue we ran into with EPB.
Speaking of EPB Speaking of EPB, his ManCity contract expires in a year. He is nowhere near eligbile to play for City and won't get any closer in this year (he's gonna need to play in every USMNT match in the coming year, and while he may be in the squad for a lot of them, he looks to be an unlikely in ink starter). So, his value is fairly low. Should we make a bid on bringing him back? Make a nice request to release him early on a free? Austria Wien would almost certainly love him on a free, but we can pay more than Austria Wien, and he might be interested in returning?
The last transfer market estimate had his value at 1 million euros. I'm not sure he is worth that, but maybe. He's bounced around a bit, playing in Portugal, Belgium, and now Austria. He still belongs to Man City after the loan, but probably wouldn't even get a look there. I'm sure he picked up some valuable time and experience, but has it been at a level that would make him worth the money and effort to get him?
The new Brexit rules means he won't qualify to play in the UK, and not for a couple years at least (and never on the pace with the USMNT he is on). He doesn't have 70 percent of USMNT matches over the last three years, and it's not even close to an appeal. Beyond that, he doesn't play in a top tier league, which is the way around the nats requirement. Plus, he's older than 21. He has a contract. they have to pay him. but they can't play him. I think it's fair to expect the ESL fallout to take a whack at the loan armies (as should happen, they're bad for the game). So that means when he returns to ManCity in the summer, he cannot play for them, at all. Last summer, City had hoped to rachet up the value on him, but with Covid that wasn't happening. now, again with Covid, they're in a position where they can't play him, so can't demand much out of a loan, have only had one broke-ass suitor for him in the last two years and are looking at what is expected to be a market flooded with cheap, quality players (almost everyone in France, for example) and traditionally rich clubs without much cash (Borussia Dortmund, for example, is flirting with bankruptcy). City's choices are to once again eat most of EPB's salary for 21-22, or sell him in a buyer's market, and that without a fall back position. I think a loan to sign arrangement would work if EPB has interest in returning and SKC is interested. Hell, city might pay us a couple hundred thousands to take him off their hands,
And does he have any desire to play in the USA? He peaced for brighter pastures as soon as he could... I can imagine him not being ready to throw in that towel yet. Especially since, while he's never been Man City level by any stretch, he's reported to have done pretty well at a few places.
He's had a very good season with Vienna, which would certainly make him appealing to another club on a loan. City's goal was never really to have him play there unless he absolutely destroyed things over there. He was always signed as a loan out until he piques someone's interest and sell him, especially with him being signed on a free. The problem for City is that half way into any loan he goes on this year he'll be able to sign a pre-contract. That all said, no I don't see us making a move for him.
He did what a smart young player should do, IMO, he played out his contract and took a shot. He may never want to return. But, money wise, SKC would be in a better position than, say, Vienna, who have just been denied a license to operate in the Austrian Bundesliga because their finances are in tatters. Now, they may well and i hope they do work this out, but they aren't in a position to spend any money, and they seem to be his biggest fans. Buzz is probably right, and making a move for EPB is probably not in the cards. but this would be a very good time to make a move. If that's not gonna happen, then dealing his rights within MLS might be a solid move
Salary guide released! https://mlsplayers.org/resources/salary-guide Ilie and Fontas don't surprise me with how overpaid they are. Actually, not really any surprises in here...
To save everyone else some time, new players from the last 2 years guaranteed salaries Pulido $2.2m Isimat-Mirin $1,028,124 Kinda $918K Walter $650K Shelton $650K Puncec $575K Espinoza $500K McIntosh $96,375 Harris $71,212 Pulskamp $69,860 Barber $67,297 Cisneros $66,547 Thompson $63,547 Siegfried $63,547 I included Espinoza because it's a new contract (that checking the 2019 numbers is a $300K pay cut). Also, no Rad on there, but I'd guess he's in the $63k-$69k range.
I used a random number to come up with this, but I think it's a legit one: SKC has more players earning $500,000 or more than anyone in MLS. We have 12. The Crew have 7. LAFC has 7, Minn 8. Philly has 7. Seat as 9. Only NYCFC at 10 and Atlanta at 11 come close. I use this number because it's indicative of the money needed to attract a high level player to MLS. It includes the massive salaries as well as those right at $500k. That said, this was the theory a couple year back, this was how SKC would compete. We might have have $5m players, but we would have an entire 11 of very good professionals. We have that, and, really, i don't know that we can look at this list and suggest SKC should be spending more. As noted, these salaries might not all be producing maximum benefit.
This is probably an understatement. If what you say is true, SKC probably has one of the worst scouting groups in MLS.
Our scouting isn't really the problem in this. It's the contracts we sign people to. Zusi is 34. We may not have been able to see his injury coming, but we probably knew his DOB. Ilie was a tougher one, but we did know that his game walked a razor thin line between brilliant and liability, and that losing half a step of speed would be a disaster for him. Fontas, i get that bringing any former La Liga starter over is expensive, and I get that Vermes absolutely loves his game. But his history of injuries was such that maybe it would have been worth an extra bit up front and a shorter term than, what, five years? OTOH, this is hindsight on my part. They really did believe, and with reason, that we were one or two pieces away from an MLS Cup fo Supporters Shield.
This. Fontas wouldn't be a problem if we hadn't signed him to four years guaranteed. There really aren't any "busts" on our team right now. Like, other than Fontas (who honestly hasn't been terrible so far this year, his "bust" is the past two seasons, combined with the fact that if he had been signed to the usual contract, he'd either be gone or playing at fraction of what we're currently paying him), no one is just an outright terrible signing. We're dealing with injuries and still have no idea what our starting XI looks like. The only thing you can really point to as a direct problem from poor scouting is lack of a better option at 6 -- and even that has the giant asterisk of "scouting in the middle of a pandemic is $%^&ing hard" attached to it.
Scouting and roster construct are not Peter's forte. The roster has 13 homegrowns. Why? They are playing ML$ games with roster spots 21-30 because of bad contract decisions. Scouting isn't about this year. It's about a cumulation of bad decisions and a revolving door roster. Scouting/player busts - the long list of Barca B's and second tier Spaniards/Portuguese players, Fontas (he directly resulted in losing Opara), the Chilean keeper, Bieler, every MLS free agent, the Rwandan kid, Igor, Croizet, the revolving door (10 plus players in 2 years) at centerback, the inability to find a competent left wing. These aren't all players that resulted in bad contracts, but they are proof bad scouting/talent identification and a group that just can't get shit figured out. How many years does it take to find a decent left wing? PV has been here more than ten years and, besides one year of Nemeth, who has played on the left side and not sucked? How about a center back pair? Is 10 players in 2 years at CB not proof of scouting incompetence? The scouting "gets" are all draft era players, Melia (a great find), and Russell (an unknown, at least to me). Pulido was a know quality. Other than those few players, who has SKC identified (outside of the academy) that just wows you with skill? Oh yeah, Blessing....
Don't disagree with your overall point but I'll throw out 2 more names, Medranda, pre injury looked to be coming into his own. Mustivar had a good couple years in 2015-2016, then he fell off a cliff. And I'm not absolving Vermes as he's the be all end all, but do we notice the drop in scouting has really occurred since Bliss came on board in 2016 as Director of Player Personnel and added Technical Director in 2019?
Fair points. What I threw out wasn't meant as an all inclusive list and I had forgotten those players. Mustivar was very good for two years as a more athletic/destroyer 6. I'm not putting all the issues on one guy. Peter needs help. Overall pt on scouting is this: much of the strength of this group, which has been slowly fading as it ages, was built upon the draft. The draft is now irrelevant. So where do we go from here? Is it the Academy? Does anyone have confidence that SKC are getting that right? Five kids that played with my son as U12/U13s are in the Academy. Two signed SKCII contracts. A net that is cast on Omaha/KC/NC area U12s might be a bit too small to build the future of a club on. Would be nice to also have a group that could ID talented order players.
Definitely, PV's success has been coming through the draft, via trades, and then supplementing that with finding good deals abroad. As you said, the draft's importance has faded, PV has started to shy away from acquiring players via trade as more and more become straight player for _AM swaps, and the players coming in from abroad feel like they're being more miss than hit. The club's roster build has relied on those players from abroad being more hit than miss, and that's not really been happening.
Just thinking about this. If our talent pool catchment area is KS, Misosuri, Neb, Iowa and N Carolina (which it looks as if it is) we're drawing players from a 24.5 million population pool. That's a bigger pool than Netherlands, or Belgium, or Chile, or Portugal, or Uruguay, or Croatia or Serbia or Greece or Austria etc. In fact, cut North Carolina from that catchment and only the Netherlands and Chile drop from that list. If you only look at metro KC, it's a bigger possible talent pool than is available to Iceland, Latvia, Slovenia, Estonia, all of whom produce enough very solid players to produce good national teams. The academy philosophy really can work. we just have to make sure that it's a kickass academy top to bottom. I mean, Iceland is the classic example. they beefed up their UEFA B, A and Pro license population among adults, now have B level coaches with elite specialist youth badges for U-8 sides in most cases (meaning everyone coaching kids there has at least 180 hours of study to back up practical experience). If Iceland, a nation with a smaller population than KC (not KC metro, it's 1/7th the size of metro KC, but actual KC), can produce as many really good players as they do, there is no reason SKC couldn't oversee an academy that churns out a decent number of MLS level players. Here's my take: creating a Puldo, or even a Busio (incredibly creative attacking talents) is really hard. Creating Roger Espinozas and Johnny Russells (absolute ballers who raise their games substantially with incredible work rates) is very do-able. creating Besler and Fontas level defenders? that's meat and potatoes for academies.The club will always have to buy certain types of players, though might be blessed with one of those now and then, but they really can make at least half the roster if the academy steps up it's game another level.
creating an academy/system like iceland did required them to invest money in a way our owners never would. also, how much of missouri and our current catchment area do we lose when stl comes online next year?
Maybe to get up to B and A licenses, but I know their affiliates work to get all their coaches up to at least D. Probably lose just 10 to 25 miles around St. Louis’ stadium. Assuming the homegrown territories are still used.
As much as the owners it would be a cost for USSF, which would have to do what the Icelandic federation did, slice the cost and availabliity of testing to make it do-able to everyone who was interested. They'd also have to kill the pay to play system and draw in the most promising kids (they're doing a much better job of this than they used to). If MLS drew the new line along state line road, and then again on western edge of Joco, wyco, we'd still have twice the population in our basin as Iceland. We also have a higher birth rate, so more kids. just FTR, I am not saying this will happen, or even should happen (I think it's a good idea, but I'm a bit of an idiot), I'm just saying it could happen, and that if it did happen, it could work. I'm not saying we'd be churning out generational talents like Gylfis, or even Busios, but we could produce a lot of very solid pros, and raise the level of 12-28 on our roster, with the breaktrhoughs such as what we're seeing now in the first 11. this isn't crazy land, as it's par for the course here in Germany.
I think the difference between the U.S. and some of these other countries is that soccer (football) attracts a much higher percentage of the upper tier of althetic/coordinated youth than other sports whereas I think it might be much lower in the U.S.
I think team/league density plays as big a part as anything. Do we have a lot of players potentially in our catchment area? Absolutely. But there's a huge difference in hundreds of teams in a five mile radius and five teams in a hundred mile radius...
But it's getting much better, pretty much year over year. Back when I was a teen, there was one elite level US athlete playing soccer (lift one to Ron N for the greatest Kyle Rote Jr story we've heard). When I was in my 30s, there were a handful, though they tended to congregate in the keeper position. Today, MLS rosters are full of them, and our yanks abroad army is quite stunning.
Growing reports out of Italy that Sassuolo is finalizing a close to $6m deal for Busio. Though reports on this side of the Atlantic are that there is no deal at this time.