2020/21 Hot Seat

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by Chris Mahr, Aug 13, 2020.

  1. DeathSlayerWenger

    Not Arsenal
    France
    May 20, 2021
    I can see Macias at western Missouri taking that gig. He took over a program and made massive strides in one year and is the right kind of crazy to take a job like that. Plus all the barbecue joints in Charleston would fit into his diet.
     
  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You are right: according to the Massey ratings, LSU should not have lost that game. I checked their game lineup against the lineup for their next game which was against Florida, which they won. With one major red-card-related exception and a goalkeeper switch against Dallas Baptist for the second half to a freshman keeper, the lineup was the same for Florida so it was not a matter of lineup tinkering. In the Dallas Baptist game, LSU was up 1-0 when their best goal scorer got red-carded. Dallas Baptist tied relatively early in the second half and then got a PK near the end of the game, for a 2-1 win. Notwithstanding the red card, it seems like LSU still should have won.

    However, one odd game is not a good basis for significantly downgrading a team. When one looks at how they did in the SEC, it was not that bad (as my previous post on this suggests) and if one does downgrade LSU significantly for that one poor result it makes a significant part of the SEC look pretty poor, too. Instead of interpreting the game that way, I look it as an outlier, simply one of those pretty major soccer upsets that will occur now and then. A good example of this is Oklahoma losing to Utah Valley in August 2016. Oklahoma finished the regular season ranked #13 in the RPI and lost 2-1 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to BYU. (Utah Valley ended up at #146 in the RPI.)
     
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  3. First Time Finish

    Nov 4, 2016
    I mean I agree with that as a general statement, but teams lose all the time to opponents they should beat. It’s one bad result amongst an otherwise solid season of improvement from where they were. Think she’s earned at least some sort of praise for this year even if it is faint.
     
  4. Collegewhispers

    Oct 27, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    /


    Agreed. Although a few years ago LSU won the SEC and now we are discussing the merits of if they should beat a division II program.
     
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  5. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    After looking closer at Massey ratings and historic win likelihoods based on differences in the LSU and Dallas Baptist Massey ratings, if one assumes that the Massey ratings for 2020 are good (really, though, no ratings for that season are good), the difference between the LSU and Dallas Baptist ratings was 1.93. (Dallas Baptist had a Massey rating in the vicinity of Texas Corpus Christi and Wofford). Statistically speaking, with that rating difference and not even taking into account that LSU was the home team, the likelihood of an LSU win was just short of 100%. (In fact, over the period for which I have collected Massey ratings, according to his ratings this was the biggest upset.)

    So, according to the stats, this was a very bad loss -- although the stats for 2020 are not worth a lot. What makes this odd is the decent number of good results that LSU had, which certainly were better than some posters on the Hot Seat thread had predicted. Putting all the results together, I am not sure what to make of it.

    By the way, the rating difference does not really mean that LSU should win. Rather, it means that they can be expected to win X% of the time, which means they can be expected to lose 100 - X % of the time. For this game with its rating difference, one could say that if LSU and Dallas Baptist were to play 100 times, one should expect Dallas Baptist to win once (I am guessing at the exact likelihood, but this probaby is in the ball park). Thus the loss could simply mean that this was that one time. .... Or, it could mean that the Massey ratings were not reliable.o_O
     
  6. Sam Miami

    Sam Miami Member

    Bayern Munich
    Germany
    Sep 11, 2019
    Are you saying Dallas Baptist over LSU is the biggest statistical upset ever recorded by Massey?

    On the 2019 hiring cycle review, looks like Washington was the best hire and Oklahoma the worst. Any arguments?
     
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  7. Nooneimportant

    Leeds United
    Jan 12, 2021
    3 weeks out from the official first day of practice, just curious as to what jobs remain open at this point. I know George Mason is one and someone mentioned South Carolina St. Any others?
     
  8. 2233soccer

    2233soccer Member

    United States
    Sep 13, 2020
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    what’s interesting about that statement is the asst coach from Oklahoma went to Washington when Potter was let go and they brought in a new HC
     
  9. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My Massey ratings data only go back to 2007. Since then, the Dallas Baptist win is the biggest statistical upset according to his ratings -- subject to a very big if. This is true only if the 2020 ratings data are valid -- and so far as I am concerned, I am not relying on any 2020 ratings -- his, the RPI, or mine. Teams simply did not play enough games, there were not enough out-of-conference games, and there were not enough out-of-region games for any rating system to be successful.
     
  10. Lord Kril

    Lord Kril Member

    Pittsburgh Riverhounds
    Jul 3, 2018
  11. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    ^ I think she'll do well despite not having a lot of HC experience and what she had, was at the D3 level.

    From what I've heard of Puppione, she is a good student of the game and has a lot of knowledge. If she can impart that on her players she should do well. Her husband is also an academy director at FC Virginia and has extensive contacts that will help her recruiting efforts.
     
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  12. Holmes12

    Holmes12 Member

    May 15, 2016
    Club:
    Manchester City FC
    #737 Holmes12, Jul 14, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    So Bramble sold the ex-Redskin AD. He's taking a huge chance. I expect DV to be thrown a lifeline. Tops Oregon State? Bobby wasn't stupid enough to just apply himself, burrowed in the Federally subsidized DMV soccer industry as he is. He's the planned "steady" bread winner in their household while Manya floats about taking chances. I see a goose-egg season all over this, although Bramble and Bobby are co-ghost coaching. I highly doubt any parents investing in FCV can be sold on boring, commuter Mason to be the end of the line. Bobby might try the ol' selling "reasonable" FCV targets low ("I (as an 'expert'), project Jenna at....uuuuuh...low D1, high D2 (wrist wafting back and forth)..."). The locals aren't naive about Braddock Road, however. Let's all go to...McDonald's...woop woop. "I didn't sink 60k (give or take) for Mason." They'll even choose crappy VCU if forced to come down to it, just cuz it's "'somewhere'. Bobert's going to have to go back to Ohio with the pitch. Sales pitch, that is. buhehehe. get it? not what some of ya call the soccer field. What time does an "academy director" wake up on a weekday morning?
     
  13. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    I have really got to quit reading this forum before I log in so that I don’t read the drivel that comes from the mind of Holmes.

    It’s obvious that you have some sort of an axe to grind, Holmes. Why don’t you quit being esoteric and trying to wax poetic all of the time?

    Take a lesson from Malcolm X and “…talk right down to earth in a language that everybody here can easily understand.”
     
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  14. USsoccerguy

    USsoccerguy Member

    Feb 5, 2009
    Club:
    Gamba Osaka
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    More mindless babble.
     
  15. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    I would not bet a dime on this one. She seems like a nice hardworking coach but there are more questions than answers about how Bobby could help or even work with the program perhaps? Does she have the charisma or leadership experience to be a difference maker there as a recruiter and coach?
    The kind of FCV kids that could help Mason are mostly private school kids who want P5s or other "elite" schools. Schools like Mason sometimes get those kids the 2nd time around when they 'transfer home' so that may be their ticket to success in the A-10. The bar there is currently SLU or Davidson I guess. Mason Should be better and getting some of the best DMV kids but we'll see.

    Wish her well but.... it's funny when these coaches move up, there's not much thought given to the other team. Feel for the Marymount kids who probably thought they had the perfect young coach and now have about 30 days to find the next one.
     
  16. Holmes12

    Holmes12 Member

    May 15, 2016
    Club:
    Manchester City FC
    #741 Holmes12, Jul 14, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2021
    stream of consciousness, simple, So it does have an air of randomness to it. I even have trouble following upon reread but the 30 editable minutes is long up and I kinda like the "in the moment" musings. Nada "axe", we all know the woso industrial complex, the machinery. I just call truths out and I am open to any challenges. Pay to play non-rev youth industries fascinate me, I guess....just as I am fascinated with "hero" civil servants. None of the above produce anything.

    Come on, USSoccerguy. it's about the essence.

    Don't join the yellow card club, my good men. Do ya guys think the Howard guy has a legal claim? considering it's a publique skool, her utter lack of "experience", Bobby + Bramble, etc. I saw her once with Leone or Leonne, not Sergio the movie score guy but Ray, the UMCP scoreless guy. It was in the wake of the Morgan canning (horrible move)....the camp was a train crash. Manya and the other AC didn't know where to put the cones. Parents of Morgan's recruits were looking around asking what in the hell is going on here? Morgan had run a good ship. In my role at the time at UMCP, I had no answers.
     
  17. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Hopefully, you're wrong Eddie. I do see where you're coming from and your response is a bit more coherent and measured than Holmes' response was.

    I took a gander at the Mason roster and noticed a fair number of internationals there. It seems as if someone there has/had an Icelandic and German connection. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.

    The sentiment about the Marymount team is entirely understandable and not a great situation for those kids. Hopefully, it works out for the best. Also, the appearance of favoritism in this hiring can't help but be noticed and that is understandable. When Bramble was coach at Alabama and Bobby Puppione was a student there, they had a working relationship. Having connections is good, though, and was more than likely a factor in this hire.
     
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  18. OGSoccerCoach

    OGSoccerCoach Member

    May 11, 2017
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  19. unspecialone

    unspecialone New Member

    Nov 5, 2019
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  20. Sledhead

    Sledhead Member

    Atalanta
    United States
    Jul 14, 2019
    To assist or replace Peter?
     
  21. Collegewhispers

    Oct 27, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    so will Troy appoint the assistant as interim for the season? Too late to find a new coach. Same with South Carolina state.
     
  22. MFF1910

    MFF1910 New Member

    Sep 11, 2018
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  23. Footyballs

    Footyballs Member

    Barcelona
    United States Virgin Islands
    Dec 19, 2018
    My one cent on George Masons new coach, she had like a 11 and 27 record as a head college coach at the D-3 level. Wow. So she's being hired exclusively on her playing background as a former high level player. Even as an assistant coach at Maryland for a year, the team was terrible. So she's never been a part of a team with that has had success. I think this experiment like many of the questionable hires this hot seat season will be interesting. Good thing I like popcorn, I'm gonna sit back and enjoy the show for all these new head coaches thrown in the deep end.

    SC State, that place is a mess. I felt for the head coach, don't blame her. Crap funding, no leadership, poor place to coach. The one thing they have going this year, a new complex for soccer, turf field that is a big upgrade for them.

    Troy coach leaving, I spoke with him recently, is that true? I'll have to call and ask. Anyone with insight on what's going on, would love to hear.
     
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  24. Sledhead

    Sledhead Member

    Atalanta
    United States
    Jul 14, 2019
  25. outsiderview

    outsiderview Member

    Oct 1, 2013
    Charlotte
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Welcome to the 2021 culture of must hire a female no matter what. What's best for the players, who cares...what's best for the success of the program, who cares. What will make us look righteous in the eyes of society, perfect.

    That being said, Manya is very likable and I hope she has success. I do not blame any of the hires that got hired this year, they just took the job, they didn't make the decision.
     
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