Mexico will be fine. 4 points should be enough to get through and barring a historic collapse they won’t lose to the Solomon Islands
The way things fell in the other groups, if we win we go through (basically if we don't, we don't). I ran some sims using the assumptions that all the remaining games are evenly matched and goals are distributed by a Poisson process informed by the 24 games played thus far. Says for the USA: Advance as 2nd place in Group D: 1.5% of the time. Advance as 3rd place in Group D with 4 points and Top 4 finish of 3rd place teams 37.4% of the time. Advance as 3rd place in Group D with 2 points and Top 4 finish of 3rd place teams 1.3% of the time. Eliminated with 2 points, 5th or 6th of 3rd place teams: 20.8% of the time. Eliminated as 4th place in Group D: 39.0% of the time The 1.5% of coming in 2nd is probably overstated as Japan will play for 0-0 draw, or be satisfied with a 1-0 loss even, while this assumes they don't know where they stand.
The only way we can advance with 2 points is if the following 3 things happen. Canada and New Zealand tie, Nigeria beats Australia and Ecuador beats Hungary. All of those are very possible on their own, but banking on all 3 is a long shot. Luckily the all happen before our game, so we'll know exactly what we need. If we do get out as a third place finisher, it would likely come at the expense of group A, B or E. That would mean Nigeria in the Round of 16. In the unlikely event of the Group C team being eliminated, then we're probably facing Brazil (this assumes that Nigeria and Brazil top their groups)
Just watching this game yesterday I was not impressed with Efra. He clearly has a poor work rate but most of the time he does something offensively to counter that. Yesterday, he was spraying the ball all over the place and counted at least 4 clear turnovers before I stopped counting. I get he is the wonderkid but he was poor yesterday for the most part. He popped up in the right place at the right time late in the game, beat a player, got a fortunate deflection back to his foot when dribbling and scored. Other than that, he was non impactful. Was also surprised Mexico does not think enough of him to start him. He signed a pro deal at 15, is on the LAG first team and he comes off the bench for a U17 team. A friend I texted that fact to responded that, "well, just shows you how little respect MLS gets."
I think at this point Efra's athletic and fitness limitations are well documented and they believe he has his biggest impact late in the game. If you start him, he's spent by the 55 minute mark.
If USA win tomorrow and assuming South Korea who sits at 3 points doesn't fall out of the top four then we will end up playing Nigeria which is almost a 100% certainty if we come in third in the group with a win tomorrow. If we end up blowing Netherlands out and jumping Japan then we will end up playing Spain. Both would make us as big of an underdog as the 20's were against France. Most likely we will be playing Nigeria. If we win that match we will play the winners of the game between the runners up of groups E and F which is most likely to be Argentina and Italy. From there the other side of the tree is looking like it will be Chile/South Korea, Angola, Senegal, Tajikestan. Out of those teams the most likely to win would be Senegal. We are looking at a road of Nigeria, Argentina/Italy, and Senegal to get to the final which as of right now would be Brazil who looks like they're on another level playing in their home country
Alvarez started the first game, and played 45 minutes the second game. That is similar to the U S with Reyna. Do you believe that the Bundesliga gets little respect as well?
Exactly the point. First team status in MLS not that big a deal so he is not an automatic starter for the Mexican U17 National team. If Reyna was on Dortmund roster and making game day appearances, he wouldn't be with the u17s. Main point was Efrain does not play as much as I would expect but the post above about his fitness limitations makes sense.
It has to be more nuanced than that... Of course just having a first team contract is not that impressive, but if he were earning more time with the Galaxy, that would mean a lot more. Anyway, whether Mexico thinks much of MLS or not, Efra holds the keys to their offense.
Brazil getting some very questionable calls their way. As the host nation, I guess that is to be expected.
Canada goes out without a point in the tournament. Brazil goes flawless, and looks like real contenders for the title.
I understand they are just kids, but how are these Canadian kids so terrible every single time they play at the u17 World Cup? Why can't they finish their chances? I don't understand. Yes, our coach is an idiot who shouldn't be there, but why don't our players ever have "it"? They all come from 3 MLS academies who go to tournaments all over the world. Why are they so crap?
That the roster was limited to those 3 clubs without scouting for any talent outside of that probably has something to do with it. Hard to believe that wouldn't be a few kids in like Edmonton, Ottawa, or dual nationals abroad that would have made the team better. Angola and New Zealand were a soft draw so not getting a point is a terrible result.
Let me flip it: Why would Canada have a Top 20 team in the World? Americans do this as well -- I'm always reminded of Rutgers College Football fans, who always act that being the "state university of New Jersey" means that they should have a Top 10 team. As if there aren't 50 states. Aren't there way more than 30 countries with populations, interest in soccer, soccer history, etc., that make you think that they should be clearly better than Canada? My point is that this probably isn't some mystical issue with Canadian kids. My point is that whether it's the U17 or real World Cup, CONCACAF is easy to get in ... so it's not a shock when the US or Canadian team is sometimes outclassed by team from stronger Confederations. Your coach may suck. Wicky may suck. But the reality just may be that the other team's kids are better. CONCACAF hasn't impressed here.
It's not about Canada having a top 20 team. It's about losing to New Zealand. It's about outplaying Angola but not being able to put them away. It's about not being able to seemingly ever instill a ruthlessness or killer instruct in the kids, cycle after cycle. Why shouldn't Canada be better than New Zealand when you consider New Zealand's weak Oceana confederation and lack of professional infrastructure and small size? Why is that too much to ask?
Your almost the size of the USA with about 1/20th? the population. Good luck getting a good scouting operational in those circumstances.