Yeah, it is a bit weird and City is favorite of both computer and bookies, but I think that the thinking is that Liverpool will do everything to win the league this year which takes their focus off CL which they just won. Conversely, even though City trail Liverpool by 14 points, and Pep is talking about 'not having the quality to compete against top clubs' that actually lets City focus on CL, the one thing they've never won. City will still get a CL spot without much worry (they are 8 points ahead of both 5th placed clubs). They also get Laporte back around when CL starts, and with him back their defense should be much improved. Also weird that in the season Bayern are vulnerable in Bundesliga they are still the computers #2 club, Juve also, not the leader in Italy, but still liked by bookies and computer. But all 3 clubs, and PSG and Barca, were the most dominant in their CL groups with 14-18 points
Hmm would definitely want to avoid Tottenham but none of the opponents are easy. Atalanta are high flying and Lyon gave us fits last year. Chelsea has a lot of young energetic players. Napoli is obivously troublesome.
Well given our sometimes woeful form any of these teams can give us trouble, especially away from home, but leg 2 will be at home for the group winners IIRC. And this year nearly all the top teams won their groups, and most which did not we cannot face (Real, Atleti, and to a lesser extent BVB). So nothing's easy but we'll be favored handily over whichever team we draw, it's the quarters and semis where we've been stumbling lately. Also Lyon sold a few of their best players and are not the same quality as the team we faced last year. Napoli a bit shambolic at the moment too.
Napoli sacked their manager and they have shitty league form but Liverpool lost one and drew another to them scoring a grand total of 1 goal. Koulibaly and Manolas give them a tough defense and we know Mertens can score. Honestly they scare me as much as Tottenham when I think about it. Napoli is the kind of team that's hard to break down and we've traditionally struggled against those. If you look at our team the last 4-5 years in the CL we never lost to an offensive juggernaut who doesn't defend. We lose to teams that press us and/or shut us down for large portions of the match with their defense. Atleti, Juve, Roma, Liverpool... Apart from Liverpool those other teams actually struggled to score at times but they are tough defensively.
Draw isn't till Monday but some top clubs will be facing juggernauts, and we are comparatively lucky: CHELSEA only will be favored against RB Leipzig Barcelona Bayern Munich Juventus Paris Saint-Germain RB Leipzig LIVERPOOL will want to avoid the Madrids Atalanta Atletico Madrid Borussia Dortmund Lyon Real Madrid MANCHESTER CITY see Liverpool Atletico Madrid Borussia Dortmund Lyon Napoli Real Madrid TOTTENHAM only favored against RBL and Valencia Barcelona Juventus Paris Saint-Germain RB Leipzig Valencia BARCELONA like to avoid the London clubs but will be favored over all Atalanta Chelsea Lyon Napoli Tottenham Hotspur REAL MADRID will pray for RB Leipzig Bayern Munich Juventus Liverpool Manchester City RB Leipzig ATLETICO MADRID see Real Bayern Munich Liverpool Manchester City RB Leipzig Paris Saint-Germain BAYERN MUNICH will want to avoid the Madrids Atalanta Atletico Madrid Chelsea Lyon Napoli Real Madrid BORUSSIA DORTMUND praying for Valencia Juventus Liverpool Manchester City Paris Saint-Germain Valencia JUVENTUS will want to avoid Real Borussia Dortmund Chelsea Lyon Real Madrid Tottenham Hotspur PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN only Atleti to avoid Atalanta Atletico Madrid Borussia Dortmund Chelsea Napoli Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool can also focus on CL if the league is wrapped up in March, which looks very likely. They have to be the favorites. Beyond them, it's pretty wide open. Bayern look poor, City are a weaker side than Leicester, Juve look similar or weaker than Inter, who Barca B just beat, PSG are PSG.
Not much day 6 drama in Europa, but a late goal against pushed 'gladbach into the hall of shame (with Lazio, St. Ettienne, and Rennes - maybe someone else I've missed) as teams from the "Big 5" leagues who failed to advance. No such bad fortune for Spanish and English clubs. This looks like it could be a year when a 3rd place CL club wins the Europa, at least yesterday the 3 favorites were all clubs that just dropped down: Ajax Leverkeusen and Salzburg all given a better shot than ManU, then Inter, then Sevilla (so 4 of the top 5 favorites on 538 were CL 3rd place clubs).
Decent options. Atalanta, Napoli, Lyon all fine I guess. Would definitely want to avoid Mourinho drama. Wish the draw was tomorrow like before.
If Madrid get Leipzig they will be really lucky. If they get Juve you know it's gonna be spicy. But I'd rather not see that. Because there'd have to be a winner. Would much rather see both of them lose in R16.
Okay, I'm bored. So I decided to check on an update of a subject that surfaced before the 2015 UCL final. Going into that final both Barcelona and Juventus were looking to complete the Treble as both had won their domestic league and cup. I noted that it marked only the second time in history that BOTH European Cup finalists entered the final looking to complete the Treble. (2010 Inter v Bayern) I also noted that since 2000 seven clubs had kicked off the final looking to complete the Treble: 2003-04 Porto 2008-09 Barcelona 2009-10 Inter Milan 2009-10 Bayern Munich 2012-13 Bayern Munich 2014-15 Juventus 2014-15 Barcelona This led to a very brief discussion. BocaFan never replied back but MavadoDribblez did. (Is he still around?) Well, we are very much on the 'under' side of the bar. We've had four finals and NO club has achieved the Treble since Barca 2015. In fact, only ONE finalist has gone into the final looking to complete the Treble: 2016-17 Juventus Even more eye opening is that only one other finalist besides 2017 Juve brought a domestic trophy with them into the final: 2016-17 Real Madrid (League) We still have 2020 to complete the five-season cycle since this topic was brought up and I'm thinking the odds of a club completing the Treble are very slim. So what's gone wrong? Why was 2009-2015 full of clubs looking for a Treble? Each of the big 5 leagues are pretty much still dominated by 1-2 elite clubs yet we rarely see a team on the cusp of joining the ultimate list of Treble winners All opinions are welcomed.
Well, tbf they did win La Liga in 2017. Still, that doesn't explain the losing finalists. Atletico Madrid, Liverpool and Tottenham went trophyless when they reached the final while the likes of Man City, Barca, Bayern and PSG failed to reach a UCL final despite dominating their leagues. And Juve only reached one final while claiming 3 Scudetto/Coppa doubles. Is it a case of what we've argued before, that the UCL is an unpredictable knock-out tournament in which the 'best team' doesn't always win (or even reach the final)? And how does this explain the early 2010s when teams were often on the cusp of a Treble? Was that all a fluke and the Treble really is, indeed, as tough an achievement today as it was in the 20th century despite select elite clubs dominating domestically these days? I just find this decade very strange. Do you think one of this season's finalists will enter the final having won their domestic double? Which team can you see having the best chance?
But football is changing. For the first time, all the sides in the Champions League last 16 are from the wealthiest five European leagues. It is true Atalanta cannot by any reasonable assessment be considered part of the elite, but it’s equally true that one anomaly, no matter how heartwarming, cannot obscure the overall trend. This is not a super‑league, yet, but it’s beginning to look an awful lot like one. And that means there is an urgency for teams outside the Champions League to get back into it as soon as possible. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2019/dec/14/arsenal-reminder-place-in-elite-for-granted The above is an article about Arsenal's demise, so far. Not sure if it speaks directly to Unclesox's questions but I guess in a nutshell I would say, yes, early 2010s were mainly a fluke. I would give Pep Guardiola and Barca huge credit for both prioritizing and then promoting the heck out of success in the domestic cup. Pep's treble team was one of the best clubs of all time, and inspired so many wannabe imitators, of course no one else had Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, etc cubed, but they could at least try for a domestic double or, if the stars aligned, a treble/triple.... So maybe that copy cat stuff led to other clubs doing more with their domestic cups, rather than just focus on league and CL? As the Arsenal article quoted and linked above speaks to, there is alot of investment in sports teams in the past 10-25 years, and that money is mostly in the big 5 leagues which now have "moats" around them which they did not before, which protect investments (in terms of CL spots). And I think that makes it harder to have a treble team. Sure you could be a rich billionaire and buy a club in the weakest of the big 5 (France or Italy) and try to use your money to buy all 3 titles, but not only does FFP get in the way, but others with big butck are already competing with you, some for monetary reward, but many for ego. If Arsenal shows nothing else, it is hard to be a top team if the focus is on monetary return first (always a priority of their owner even though he is a billionaire who married another billionaire (Walmart heir). Happy holidays if you got this far!
Round of 16 draw. Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Bayern Munich v (Real Madrid : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Juventus v (Real Madrid : Tottenham Hotspur : Borussia Dortmund : Lyon : Chelsea) RB Leipzig v (Real Madrid : Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Chelsea) Liverpool v (Real Madrid : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Borussia Dortmund : Lyon) Manchester City v (Real Madrid : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Borussia Dortmund : Lyon) Paris SG v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Borussia Dortmund : Chelsea) Valencia v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Borussia Dortmund : Lyon) Atalanta v (Paris SG : Bayern Munich : Liverpool : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Atlético Madrid v (Paris SG : Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Chelsea v (Paris SG : Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Borussia Dortmund v (Paris SG : Manchester City : Juventus : Liverpool : Valencia) Lyon v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Juventus : Liverpool : Barcelona : Valencia) Napoli v (Paris SG : Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Real Madrid v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Juventus : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Paris SG : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia)
Borussia Dortmund v Paris SG Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Bayern Munich v (Real Madrid : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Juventus v (Real Madrid : Tottenham Hotspur : Lyon : Chelsea) RB Leipzig v (Real Madrid : Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Chelsea) Liverpool v (Real Madrid : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Lyon) Manchester City v (Real Madrid : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Lyon) Valencia v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Lyon) Atalanta v (Bayern Munich : Liverpool : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Atlético Madrid v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Chelsea v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Lyon v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Juventus : Liverpool : Barcelona : Valencia) Napoli v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Real Madrid v (Bayern Munich : Manchester City : Juventus : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia)
Real Madrid v Manchester City Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Bayern Munich v (Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Juventus v (Tottenham Hotspur : Lyon : Chelsea) RB Leipzig v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Chelsea) Liverpool v (Atalanta : Atlético Madrid : Lyon) Valencia v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atalanta : Napoli : Lyon) Atalanta v (Bayern Munich : Liverpool : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Atlético Madrid v (Bayern Munich : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Chelsea v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Lyon v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Liverpool : Barcelona : Valencia) Napoli v (Bayern Munich : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia) Tottenham Hotspur v (Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig : Valencia)
Atalanta v Valencia Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Bayern Munich v (Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Juventus v (Tottenham Hotspur : Lyon : Chelsea) RB Leipzig v (Tottenham Hotspur : Atlético Madrid : Napoli : Chelsea) Liverpool v (Atlético Madrid : Lyon) Atlético Madrid v (Bayern Munich : Liverpool : RB Leipzig) Chelsea v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Lyon v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Liverpool : Barcelona) Napoli v (Bayern Munich : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig)
Atlético Madrid v Liverpool Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Bayern Munich v (Napoli : Lyon : Chelsea) Juventus v (Tottenham Hotspur : Lyon : Chelsea) RB Leipzig v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli : Chelsea) Chelsea v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Lyon v (Bayern Munich : Juventus : Barcelona) Napoli v (Bayern Munich : Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig)
Chelsea v Bayern Munich Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli : Lyon) Juventus v (Tottenham Hotspur : Lyon) RB Leipzig v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli) Lyon v (Juventus : Barcelona) Napoli v (Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Juventus : Barcelona : RB Leipzig)
Lyon v Juventus Barcelona v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli) RB Leipzig v (Tottenham Hotspur : Napoli) Napoli v (Barcelona : RB Leipzig) Tottenham Hotspur v (Barcelona : RB Leipzig)
we will face napoli,interesting,never meet them at official tournament. Pep now can show his Barca DNA by eliminating Madrid Damn that juventus team,serious luck