Review: 2018 WC Qualifying - Towards winning our first WC title: А дело бывало -- и коза волка съедала.

So how much do you guys drink over there in Comox BC??

Sounds like a fun place!!! You guys do lots of logging and stuff????

 

Actually yes, haha lots of logging.. not a logger but I do go to loggers' slash piles to scavenge discarded wood to burn next winter.
So suppose I am more of a smoker than a drinker - but I would REALLY be drinking tho if these damned pigs flew in 2018 !!

but who knows, if recent years' pattern of swinging back and forth from great to disappointing results is any hint then maybe we will be surprised again. Hahaha
WC 2010 runners up (surprisingly great)
Ec 2012 3 losses and out (brutal)
WC 2014 3rd (surprisingly good)
Ec 2016 nope (total disappointment)
WC 2018 (must be total greatness?)

Obvious I've been into the smoking now?

 

I personnally don't really like surprises. Like in 2008 and 2014 when the team was expected to fail quickly but had a good tournament. I just can't feel the vibe cause I know it's gonna end sooner or later (Denmark 92 and Greece 04 being the exceptions...), in 2008 I was quite young so I believed in it but in 2014 I didn't believe a single second, even after the 5-1 against Spain.

2010 was just great for me because everything was just logical. Van Marwijk was acting rationnal, using the same line ups...Sneijder won the CL, Robben had his first tremendous and complete season, the team hadn't lost a single game for two years...The three biggest teams before WC 2010 were Spain, Holland and Germany, and this was the final ranking.

Of course we can discuss the poor content of the dutch games (especially the first round), but at the end of the day the team was solid. The only moment I doubted about Holland losing was when Robinho scored. Otherwise even against Uruguay it was tight but someone could feel Holland would win

It would take at least 4 or 6 years to build another solid team in my opinion.

 

I'm trying to use reverse psychology. Lets see if it works

 

Marvin Zeegelaar had a great game as Sporting beat Porto 3-1 at the Dragão

 

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Does the above count?

 

I don't see how France doesn't win the group(I guess we can hope Domenech takes over again) The true battle is for second.

Does anyone know is Ibra will be retiring after Euro? I know he's done with Ligue 1 and probably moving to the retirement league. I'm guessing at 35 when qualifying begins that this summer will be his last hurrah.

 

I guess he will retire after another swedish flop he won't be able to save this summer.

Sweden is weak and will be even weaker without him. fact. They're not weaker than the Czech that beat Holland though.

Bulgaria is in the group and had some good results recently, weak team on the paper but can give Holland a hard time like Iceland did.

Holland is still favorite to get the 2nd place, but what after ? Knock out games with potential opponents like Croatia, Turkey or even Portugal sometimes...Would this dutch beat them ? No.

 

Bulgaria isn't a team to fear. They would have lost 10-1 to Portugal had their keeper not had the game of his life. Portugal will win their group with ease. The second place teams will consist of the teams like the Czech's, Swiss, Bosnian's, Danes, Poles, etc. All teams the Dutch can beat if they're on their game. The only nightmare result would be to draw Spain/Italy. Or if a team like Belgium fell on their faces.

 

It's a seeded draw ... just need to keep a healthy ranking.

 

If Holland had to play against Denmark or Poland now without Robben and Sneijder, I wouldn't put my money on the dutchs.

I like to think in terms of difference making players and players able to score important goals. Who are the difference making dutch players now upfront ? Depay ? Really struggling and hasn't score a single important goal this year. Promes and Janssen ? Need to see them in a better league before to say.

Poland got Lewandowski, Denmark got Eriksen as real threats.

In the previous generation Robben was a top difference maker and Sneijder/Kuyt could score important goals at any moment even when they were having a bad game. Especially Sneijder.

At this moment the dutch team is very very vulnerable, maybe there will be some improvements in one year but now I would say all those teams are superior on the paper and would be favourites if they had to play against Holland without Robben tomorrow :

Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, England, Portugal, Italy, Turkey, Croatia.

Then those teams would be 50/50 or even slightly favourites for some against Holland :

Bosnia, Wales, Switzerland, Poland, Austria, Denmark, Serbia

Serbia played like shit like qualifiers but they have a serious good squad and can put a better eleven than Holland on the paper.

And notice I didn't even count Iceland and Czech Republic that I consider to have been very opportunistic last qualifiers, I only put teams with good/decent squads.

 

What about Ukraine?

 

This is true for average teams but not for Holland. Holland is a big power and should have big players.

The same argument was used by brazilians fans in 2010, they thought the biggest problem was Dunga and not the fact their team had lost half quality of the previous generations. 2014 they changed their coach and had another humiliation.

Dutch national team and dutch clubs results are linked and will be linked from now, considering Robben, Sneijder, RVP are leaving...

If eredivisie clubs can't beat Molde and Rapid Wien, why would the dutch NT beat Norway and Austria ? Knowing that the dutch selection got like 12 eredivisie players in average every time. The others playing with sub top clubs abroad...

A better coach can improve but not change the quality of a group. Also know that average europeans teams like Austria and Norway never had a big quality, so they've learned how to play with their strenghts and limits. For years. Decades. It would take a long time to Holland to learn how to play effectively with an average team

 

Friendly game, there are about 10 in a year so of course you'll be able to have some good ones.

Not only De Boer. Jol, Van Basten and Ten Cate also crashed out against weak teams because of the lack of quality. And the best Ajax players since 2010 are foreigners. With its dutch players the results would be even worse.
PSV is not really better, had a nice run this year (with a lot of luck), but previous years ? Were crashing out against Chernomorets Odessa and Ludogorets...

Robben, Robben, Robben...

 

Van Marwijk had a great group. Robben had knocks but he came back and had probably his six best months ever, leading Bayern to the CL finale almost alone with spectacular goals everytime. Van Marwijk took the generation 80/85 when it was at its peak. Showed a lot of promises during EC 2008, all he had to do was finding the right system and keeping it. Which he did. And the team didn't lose any game from september 2008 to june 2010, lost against Spain in the last minutes...Then didn't lose again until october 2011. Pity things went wrong in EC 2012 cause his results were just great.

Van Gaal used a new defence and Holland doesn't have a bad defence now. Already better than the previous generations . Many options and guys that can play football and give a good pass like De Vrij, Van Dijk...The problem is clearly upfront and Van Gaal couldn't find any solution neither. He kept relying on Robben, Sneijder, RVP, Van der Vaart...
The only player he really gave chances to during the WC14 qualifiers was Lens. That's all.

Remember he didn't even really use Depay or Wijnaldum until the world cup started.

Would he beat Romania and Hungary 4-1 with Promes/Luuk/Depay upfront ? I really doubt.

Van Gaal lost to Belgium and France in friendlies and those were obvious losses. Van Marwijk could keep it clean until that game against Germany in november 2011 (0-3). Three years of very positive results that kept Holland in the top 3 of the FIFA ranking.

 

This is spot on!!

We are in between generations right now. Things will come good, but it will take 5 to 10 years

 

Good things will only happen if action is taken to improve development. You can't just sit back and wait for things to improve because they always have before. Improvement requires correct action, not complacency

 

Exactly! That is exactly what is wrong with Dutch football.