Pre-match: 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cup Host Selection - December 2

Any word on how the others are tending to vote?

 

The online bookmakers I looked at just now do not show prices for 2022, though last I heard William Hill had the US third, behind Qatar and Australia. As I understand, William Hill mentioned that there has been very little activity on the 2022 selection, meaning that Qatar's status as favorite is likely influenced by a small number of large wagers placed on Qatar.

Anyway, here's what they have for 2018, if anyone is interested on where the money is going:

1.73 Russia
3.25 Portugal & Spain
3.75 England
41.00 Belgium & Holland

Numbers indicate the return on a dollar bet (or euro, pound, whatever), including one's original dollar, for a successful bet.

 

This is huge, in my opinion, especially if Blatter keeps that Oceania replacement on the sidelines and is thus the tiebreaking vote if it goes to 11 vs. 11.

China inadvertently did the USA an enormous favor by publicly stating their intentions at 2026.

Blatter is, of course, thinking about his legacy, and I'm sure would love to add the fact that he opened up China to World Cup football as well as Africa (and perhaps Russia).

 

2018 - Russia
2022 - USA
2026 - China

Sounds good to me. Of course anything with 2022-USA sounds good to me.

 

To me the question with regards to China's possible interest in 2026 is whether or not a message is being given that China's candidacy would suffer if Australia or Qatar win 2022. Despite being fellow AFC countries, those countries are in pretty distinct regions from China, certainly far more so than China's neighbors Japan and South Korea.

With regards to Australia, there might be reluctance to put consecutive World Cups in what is an awkward time zone for both Europe and North and South America. With Qatar, I am not sure a China 2026 bid would be problematic, though who knows what those 33 guys are thinking.

 

FIFA's main cash source from World Cups is the TV rights, no?

Imagine two World Cups in a row (Australia and China) hosted at bad TV times for Europe and the Americas and what that might do to the price of the broadcasts.

 

As I said, this would seemingly be a big factor. However, how old will the current 22 voting members be when 2026 comes up for a vote? How old when they be in 2026 itself? If I knew for certain that there was that kind of long-term thinking going on amongst the voters I would be more inclined to think this would be a decisive factor. As it is, I'm not sure that many of the 22 voters are that concerned with 2026.

And as the Australians have pointed out, the Far East TV market might be the main one after another 16 years. I'm not sure about the validity of this argument, but if you count India (4-5 hours time difference) perhaps it becomes a little stronger.

 

I saw those odds as well. It just seems unfathomable to me that Qatar's bid could possibly be successful. It seems so illogical on so many fronts.

But FIFA being FIFA...who knows?

 

USA are currently the odds-on favorite for 2022, but that vote has really become a sideshow given the furor generated by the UK media (and their investigative reporting) over the 2018 vote.

Warner (see ESPN Soccernet article today) has stated absolutely that CONCACAF's three votes will stick together (and, he implies, go where he directs- what does he have on Chuck Blazer?).

Personally, I think that England's woes benefit us. This makes Russia more likely to win and that will make it easier to vote for the USA after what will be three cup finals out on the periphery (S. Africa, Brazil, Russia).

If England wins, I'll start to worry for us. Until then, though, I think we have a very good chance. There's just no comparison in terms of the amount of money that everyone at FIFA will pocket in connection with a USA-hosted WC.

 

India is not at all a soccer nation.

 

I know, though I suspect that the World Cup is nonetheless a big TV event for the 1 billion + people there.

In any case, I'm just repeating what is, as I understand it, the Australian rebuttal to the time zone argument.

I tend to agree, which is something of a shame as England's woes seem pretty damn unjustified.

 

Qatar has money and govt support, but no stadiums yet and triple-digits summer temps. If they win 2022 WC it will be through pure bribery.

 

It's total BS if Qatar wins the 2022 WC. I understand the allure of holding the first WC in the Middle East, but Qatar is hot as hell in the summer time and they have a STRICT alcohol policy.

That being said, this is FIFA, AKA the most corrupt organization in the world so who the hell knows?

 

There are problems with their bid, but alcohol isn't one of them. Alcohol is already available in hotels and would be available in stadiums and fan fests.

 

Qatar's population is 1.7mil, so country residents can supply just a few % of attendance.
Australia has a strong bid IMHO, but Oceania's vote situation is not resolved yet.

 

The World Cup in India is HUGE. The Indian NT might suck, but the country is soccer crazy. And in 2026, along with China, they could be one of the richest TV markets.

 

The votes from the Japanese and Korean delegates might be the key once their countries get eliminated. Will they stay with Australia or Qatar? Or will we be able to peel one or both off?

 

good (and sobering) breakdown by Paul Kennedy at SoccerAmerica

William Hill's odds, by the way (interesting that Kennedy's people consider South Korea a stronger contender):

I can live with losing to the Aussies, because they're a rather similar nation to us in this contest (large, not very dense, matches would be played in local football stadiums, etc.). They're a fairly worthy host, in my opinion, better than USA 1994 and pretty similar to USA 2022.

Love him or hate him, Bill Clinton's a great choice to give the final pitch for the US. I don't think that the final speech matters, but if it's going to matter there probably isn't a more charismatic, globally popular, persuasive speaker to offer up for the US. Unfortunately, I think that the US falls short in the dark arts elements.

 

I think they will go to USA hoping for a new shot for 2026 wich then probably will be an all asian affair.

 

Russia and Qatar have it in the dark arts elements, and FifA is run like a banana republic. I would bet on those two, although the Spanish are a strong possibility because of the Latin American bloc voting for them. Qatar winning would be shameful. Yes, let's build ten white elephants and training facilities and air condition them at full blast! Only in the world of Fifa is such nonsense taken seriously.