After looking at the remaining schedule and based on recent form - I think we take 21 from the games left. Will 49 pts be enough to make the playoffs? Minnesota and DC are some of the only away games we have the best chance of getting wins. Sure would help for a playoff push. If they indeed sell Alex, I predict we will not qualify unless we figure out a way to play a 442 because this new Argy will not be able to fill in for Alex's defensive contributions in a 433
This is a decent simulation and projection for the Dynamo, calculates % chance of qualifying at various point levels: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/Houston.html If 46/47 points gets you in, Dynamo really are just 5 wins out of remaining 15 games plus a few ties away from qualifying. I go back to what I said it early in the year most teams in the playoff format for the last few years get in when they get to 13 wins. I do think the 2 upcoming road games are the easiest road games left so if we don't get a win out of that week it could get sticky
I know this is a US soccer mentally, but it's BS. Something Ive learned is that this is a cruel game. Sometimes the difference between success and failure is how much layers of paint the goal posts have. This isn't American Football where the best team wins 99 out of 100 times. This is football where disaster is right around the corner even for good teams.
49 points will make the playoffs. count on it. Dynamo might get there if they stay perfect at home. I'm not counting on that -- but I'm rooting for it.
disagree. this team has a decade's long history of failing to sell ehen the price is high. if someone comes in, do it. sell him and take what you can of that money and put it into the academy. promote another youngin from rgv to take his spot. lather. rinse. repeat.
I guess it depends if you think you can win this season? I think Alex has been our best midfielder this season. Get rid of that and you are not playing to win now.
So we should give up? I don't think anyone in the playoffs is 100% out of the question in this league.
its a balance act. do you roll the dice and hope you win out on a very small chance or do you gather resources and up those chances in 18? remember that winning in the playoffs will almost certainly require at least 1 road victory. personally were so far behind in investment that if someone offers some nice cash take it and run.
It always depends on the offer, but you can't keep giving away your best players and expect to win. There are a lot of feeder clubs in the world that do that and never reach the top.
Not necessarily! You can tie away or lose by a goal or two and still advance to the next round if you win big at home.
true though mls cup for us will almost certainly be away which means winning at toronto or nyc, etc. alex or no i have a hard time seeing this group capable of doing so.
we hardly sell anyone so thats not a worry im going to get worked up on. if this team were more balanced like the fire, id not move anyone. theyre clearly all in. were not there yet.
This team is in good position to at least qualify for the playoffs and after not having a playoff game for almost 4 calendar years, the FO is going to try hard to qualify as they don't want to have to try and sell 2018 season tickets after another non-playoff year. I would say that it is important to finish top 4 if at all possible to get at least a home playoff game given road form.
I like our chances and I feel like the opportunity to try young players and get some production from them bodes well for later in the season. We got away from rote subbing and will have a better sense who on our roster can contribute. But our gap to the red line is 6 points to teams with a game fewer banked so this is all premature. Value of Alex transfer fee < emotional and financial risk of missing playoffs. You don't dismantle starters on this team, you add around the edges. I think the Mexico talk is a bargaining ploy to encourage them to not only re-sign a debatable player but perhaps overpay. I'm not even sure he should be brought back much less leverage us for more money. I'd take his and Wenger's money and go shop mids. I personally would go sign someone better and as such would run out the deal. You don't make this team better signing the same people for more money (Bruin and Barnes, ahem). Alex is good but if we want to compete with the elite we need awesome. Some of the new Hondurans are pretty awesome so that does not necessarily mean break the bank. Dogging it in a contract year is not his interest, if he is unhappy with our effort he needs to make a case for elsewhere. Also along the Barnes and Bruin lines, it is not in our interest with a team with significant contingency/rebuild need again (loans, old players, certain spots where we aren't getting enough) to lock in our money on a supporting player. We did this last year and they both ended up traded away after we struggled.
I think Alex has been pretty damn awesome the last two seasons. I think some dynamo fans underrate what he's been doing. He's been the single best player on the team when you factor in consistency. I'm not saying I'd keep him over someone like Elis (who has potential to become a massive star), but he's been extremely good.
He was a good player on bad team but is no longer the best. He was quarterback on last year’s team and it sucked. New players come in and our record improves. That favors the new people. If you look at who he has his G and A against, it’s DC, MTL, RSL, ORL, NYRB, CLB, SEA. 11E, 8E, 8W, 7E, 5E, 6E, 5W. Nobody above 5th place and every single production until last weekend in a home game (!). Based on that data, if you want to improve and win road games against decent teams, you go a different direction. I think what we need is more of a true 10. One read on our struggles against better teams and on the road is we cannot break down defenses who get back and stay organized. That is not Alex’s forte, which is either whacking a 50 yard diagonal counter-starter deep in his own end, or winning a ball in midfield and sprinting downfield right at defenders then passing wide. I would spend the money on Elis, and then use the Clark/Cabezas/Wenger/Alex money to get a real #10 and a quality #6 as well.
Western conference projected points: This is if you take the PPG earned home and away so far this year and project that over the remaining games. 1. FCD 60.26 2. SKC 54.40 ------------------- 3. HOU 53.47 4. SEA 49.61 5. VAN 47.79 6. POR 46.36 ------------------ 7. SJE 43.12 8. RSL 37.97 9. LAG 37.4 10. COR 31.49 11. MIN 27.86 It is pretty amazing that everyone in the West has played 10 home games so far except Portland and Colorado with 11 and Minnesota with 12. Away games range from 8 to 12 with that accounting for most of the difference in games played overall so far.
Juve - at the right price you can't argue that Alex isn't better at many other positions than the players we currently have. He doesn't have to play #10, he could play a wing or an outside midfield and be a better player than many of the players in that position now. You know what you are getting with Alex. Technically skilled and fast player, that can be very good in multiple positions that can play defense, help in possession, give assists, break down defenses on the dribble. On top of that he is no shrinking violet - he can take the physical abuse that refs allow our clumsy league to get away with. Keep him the remainder of this season for sure, maybe sell him offseason BUT ONLY if it is for an incredible amount of money.
I guess keeping him is a moot point if you can't resign him for a reasonable salary. I am thinking he would rather stay at an improved contract rather than take Chinese money
Thanks for running this out. Looking at a few other numbers and projections, I think the projected top 6 as you have it are the West playoff teams and it's mostly seeding at this point. Dynamo are realistically only 4 wins and a few ties out of last 13 games away from qualifying for the playoffs. And we still have Minnesota and Colorado at home.
He's solid, the problem is you pit him against a TFC type team that will stand between us and the cup, and I feel like we have the forwards to compete but not the midfield or the backline. How many games against really good teams do you see where we get out-midfielded? It would be an unambitious decision if you just kind of want to be marginal playoffs for a season or two more. After that he's past 30, will be an ageing player whose success has been premised on running and combativeness, neither of which hold up forever. Another short termist decision like the backline and to me the backline (and midfield) are what's between us and success this season. More risk but longer term potential if we'd gone younger and less known. We went safe and it turns out safe is limiting. Less down risk but also little chance of uptick. Is what it is. I would go younger and longer term just like with the forwards. I realize there is some risk but I heard some of these "unknown" versus "known" arguments about Barnes and Bruin and I am glad we jumped in the deep end at forward. Fear of the unknown is often an excuse for complacency here and IMO the league tends to keep lurching forward and leave behind teams lacking ambition and risk that stand pat. The new forwards all have their glitches but do we want Bruin and agony but 10 safe goals back? You look at the Hondurans and that's what I am thinking is the prototype replacement on our budget. I get ripped for gold plated but I'd be fine with a younger Boniek-type who comes in and does the job without much notoriety or massive salary. I'm up enough on Alex where it's like don't risk this season. I'm down enough where it's like move on before the next deal. That's reconcilable because I think we need the playoffs this season and aren't making enough moves this summer to really make a title run, but if we have ambitions for that run in the future the 7 players in between the forwards and keeper need revision and upgrade.